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Gold? Flat - Stocks? Flat - Long Bonds? Selling Hard. Where is the money going??

MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Long Bonds are selling hard.

Stocks aren't soaring.

Gold isn't plummeting. It's not soaring either.


Commodities and Currencies aren't moving in a new crazy manner.



I'm wondering... where is the money going?


Do we see a big post-summer rally in stocks with new money? If so, do we see a new post-summer crash in metals?



Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions

Comments

  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608 ✭
    One guess: the money is going back to Europe. European fear money is what some say recently pushed up U.S. bonds.
    Investment blog: gold, stocks and more
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My opinion is the money is going nowhere, it's parked on the sidelines.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Seems to be a fair amount of posturing in RE. There has been a lot of play into both big properties and residential activity but that isn't really big money. Big money seems to be not accounted for...as noted: stocks flat, gold flat, bonds aren't really yielding anything and cash isn't making much money so it looks like the money is parked. If I had to guess, it would seem like energy is in play in the US right now with exploration and distribution expanding and growing. There's probably also some commodities playing because of the food situation and drought in the bread basket. While there are surely some stock playa's the regular guys seem to have been pushed out by the machines and scam headlines but a lot of cube farmers are probably still in their 401's (those few that still have them). Big money headlines seem scarce right now.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The biggest players seem to want the smaller ones in risky asset classes. Gee, why would that be?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    there are a couple of post scripts

    so much for operation twist

    and so much for don't fight the fed.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Waiting for the poli-conventions, going to be a rough ride til Nov.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The answer you are seeking cannot be found with an incorrect premise
    Bonds are not selling off hard.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I know ... the market is manipulated image... however, if you can't beat them, join them," or learn to play the game.
    The DOW is up 7.75% ytd
    NASDAQ + 16.34% ytd
    S&P + 11.76% ytd

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The answer you are seeking cannot be found with an incorrect premise
    Bonds are not selling off hard.

    I know ... the market is manipulated image... however, if you can't beat them, join them," or learn to play the game.
    The DOW is up 7.75% ytd
    NASDAQ + 16.34% ytd
    S&P + 11.76% ytd >>



    Since when are those gains considered "flat"? and if some stocks are up 50% or more, and others down 50% (or more), somebody is making some money somewhere, and others losing some

    There is no such thing as "safe guaranteed above average return", in order to get anywhere in any market, you have to take some risk.

    Those who think metals are risk-free are deluded, imo

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Those who think metals are risk-free are deluded, imo

    The only thing you can say about physical metals for sure, is that they are real. Which is more than you can say about many "investments" that are being offered today.


    On another note..............today it was reported that Jon Corzine will not face any criminal charges in the MF Global scandal........
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1 month % change S&P500 vs. 10year yield




    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Same chart, 2 year timeframe

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    and in the last few weeks we've had a pronounced move in the 10years



    where is that money going?


    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bond charts

    If this is not selling off hard, I can't wait to see what the real move down will eventually look like.
    Metal stocks, industrials, transports, etc. all seem to be moving up nicely today. Money seems to be slowly migrating into materials and commodities after a 1-4 yr washout.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Similar moves in bond prices can be found on many occasions over the past few years. If you wish to ses heavy selling then you will see it. But I am not seeing heavy selling. Prices are only back to where they were a few months ago.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    However, if you wish to see a prediction of this move just look back to last months trading thread.image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If long bonds are being sold off, it means that the market is working in spite of Twist. This means that the government's cost curve on the National Debt is going to rise, hard.

    In this scenario, where does the money want to go? My guess would be that lots of folks and money managers will panic, because "someone" is losing their grip on the control over the markets.

    Oh, I'm sure that on CNBC they will be talking straddles or offsetting trades, but call it what it is. Nobody wants 30-yr government debt. Except Japan, apparently. From their perspective, I suppose that our bad paper still looks better than their bad paper. It won't matter.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jmski,

    Bond prices are only back to where they were 3 months ago before everyone thought the FED was going to fo something at Jackson Hole --cuz that's what they always do -- in light of the deepening European crises.

    Now as investors realize that the Europe isn't the end of the world and the FED isn't going to announce anything major, bond prices have teverted back to norm. This move in bonds is nothing special. Even a rank amateur could read the tealeavess on this bond profit-taking action. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Jmski,

    Bond prices are only back to where they were 3 months ago before everyone thought the FED was going to fo something at Jackson Hole --cuz that's what they always do -- in light of the deepening European crises.

    Now as investors realize that the Europe isn't the end of the world and the FED isn't going to announce anything major, bond prices have teverted back to norm. This move in bonds is nothing special. Even a rank amateur could read the tealeavess on this bond profit-taking action. image >>



    Correct....

    10 Year Treasury Rate is at 1.80%, compared to 1.73% the previous market day and 2.23% last April.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yup, selling off hard.


    Not yet...





    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    10 year Treasuries are back down to 1.65%. No sell off & interest rates should remain low for the foreseeable future.
    No relief for Retirees counting on savings interest to fund their retirement.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • Timbuk3Timbuk3 Posts: 11,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The money is parked on the sidelines
    waiting until more financial stability
    is evident. So is mines !!!
    Timbuk3
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My money is being put to work everyday taking advantage of a myriad of opportunities.

    The fox catches more chickens when they are all sleeping.image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486 ✭
    Actually my stocks have been doing well, a good percentage of it being in dividend payers. Very little in the bond area, mostly junk and TIPS.
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    I think it's on the sidelines, too.

    Post election or when polls show a clear winner, maybe.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How's that yield curve doing?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How's that yield curve doing? >>





    Quite nicely


    and much better than the folks down under.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    cohodk, I wouldn't begin to know which side to take on a bond bet. I don't know how you would rationalize a value either way. Too much vaporware accounting for me.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I never mentioned anything about value. But Japan has had low rates for a decade. Why couldnt the USA do the same?

    Some might also look at the chart of gold that I posted in the trading thread and might conclude that they would have a difficult time rationalizing value.

    For the record I am neutral on both as I see greater opportunities elsewhere.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not about gold, it's about the dollar. But you know that already.

    The politicians are paid well to look the other way while the big banks skim every market. If Corzine is never indicted and arrested, gold is the best interim bet.

    Houston, we do have a big problem here - there are no rules, and it would be wise to keep that fact foremost in your head.

    Responding to the OP - "where is the money going?" It's buying what it always buys, things that bankers can own outright. Things that politicians can own outright. The rest of us have to take out loans, unless you thread the needle and get out of their way.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If Rmoney gets selected will the sheeple go "all in" the stock market?

    Will the $2T on the sidelines enter the market with R&R at the helm?

    I already know what dear comrade jmski's answer is.
  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    No need to wait for the election to take advantage of QE/market possibilities. With QE3 hype increasing, if that takes place before the election, then its a good time to be in stocks because they supposedly go up during the QE3 'period.' (not that I really know this, but saw it on TV!)
    But you have to keep up with it to take the profits just before the end of the QE3 period.

    And at the same time, if PMs go up during the QE3 period, are you going to sell and take some profit?
    It doesn't matter how much it goes up during QE3, if you don't take some profits, and PMs go back down a bit after QE3.
    COA
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sounds so simple, doesnt it tneig?

    I cant remember anyone ever saying the "the simple things are worth doing".
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If Rmoney gets selected will the sheeple go "all in" the stock market?

    Will the $2T on the sidelines enter the market with R&R at the helm?

    I already know what dear comrade jmski's answer is.

    Don't Buy! Don't Buy! Don't Buy!

    We're not the droids you're looking for.


    tneig, cohodk, my dear comrades. You of course do know what "churning" is, my comrades?

    Is even much worse for government tax scam churning. Hahahahaha. Joke is on us!!!!!! Comrade Renski knows!!!!!!!
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    To the OP.......you may finally get that selloff you been looking for. Beware of the consequences.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • WestySteveWestySteve Posts: 567 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Actually my stocks have been doing well, a good percentage of it being in dividend payers. Very little in the bond area, mostly junk and TIPS. >>



    Amen to that. I've been buying high dividend paying stocks that have earnings growth and that seems to be working OK. Also buying collectibles because....well....I may as well, right? (bank interest sucks).
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