Patience.

Mesquite

The jig is up. So says the MAN. Here.

I'm guessing that we should see some movement fairly soon. Although I'd be happy to see little of it until 2013.

tneig

A little extreme.

Not till I'm done buying, ok. Doah.

Now, if it was up that high, would you buy it? Could you sell it?

ps, thanks for posting!

Mesquite

Would I buy it? Not likely at that level.

Could I sell it? Absolutely! Provident Metals, APMEX, Gainsville Coins, Tulving, the local B&M, ... They're not going out of business and they will buy then just as they are buying now. That's why I only buy what they currently buy back.

OPA

"Gold will go to and above $3500." Give me a break - no time frame this time in his fortune telling - I'm still looking for the $2,000 that he predicted for 2010, he came close in 2011, but no "cigar."

Mesquite

"The start, like all starts towards the old high and well above, should be slow with more unfolding drama. It will build on itself but gold will trade at and above $3500. I am now as certain of this as I was over ten years ago when I told you gold was headed for $1650. I knew that as fact and to me from $248 gold was trading at $1650.

My job now is to define gold’s full valuation for you when it occurs. The timing is no less than one year from now to a maximum of three years from now. I believe I will be able to do that for you."





You want timing? Here's your timing.

OPA

<< <i>"The start, like all starts towards the old high and well above, should be slow with more unfolding drama. It will build on itself but gold will trade at and above $3500. I am now as certain of this as I was over ten years ago when I told you gold was headed for $1650. I knew that as fact and to me from $248 gold was trading at $1650.

My job now is to define gold’s full valuation for you when it occurs. The timing is no less than one year from now to a maximum of three years from now. I believe I will be able to do that for you."





You want timing? Here's your timing. >>



Don't mortgage your house on this wild guess. Again, I'm still waiting for $2k to be surpassed that he's been predicting for 10+ years. As of late, his crystal ball seems to have clouded up.

Mesquite

Don't mortgage your house ...

That will not happen, I assure you.

tneig

If gold went that high, who knows what the real market will be like at that time. Tight, changed, supply, no buy back? SHTF..
It could be unmovable. Ok, for me, if I bought gold at $1600 and it was at $2200, I expect to get that price. If it went to
$3000+, I don't think you could get spot, let along a prem above it. And if it did hit that price, what would be happening to
the dollar would likely be incredible devaluing and who knows what would be happening in the nation at that time. I think it would be trouble.

I'd rather see it only go to a high of $2200 in peaks, because even at that, its going to come back down hard.
I'd rather see Silver Decouple and move up in that exponential climb instead. It can go to $100+ without destroying the nation and dollar in doing so. $3500 means we're screwed in so many ways. We don't want that. In statistics you throw out the low and high extremes. I hope we can toss his view for our sakes.

ps:
I read the apmex buy back statement for the things they offer buyback for, and it states a certain minimum. Maybe a few grand of the same merchandise in silver, but maybe a large amount in gold for their good price. I'm sure if they buy back small amounts it would be a lesser offer per oz.

Besides, I can predict anything with a view of from 1 - 3 years. I'll be rich in 3 years if people take out futures on just my silver and gold supply in have in my SDB.

Again OP, thanks much for posting.

derryb

gold doesn't go up - dollars go down. The question is will dollar go that low. Dollar destruction is the order of the day and in the foreseeable future.

Mesquite

tneig,

I don't own gold and silver as an investment per se (although it has been a good one since 2001). Rather, I hold gold for the purchase of whatever the next currency is when the dollar goes in the crapper (which I am sure it someday will). Unlike our FED Chair, I have no doubt that gold (and silver) are money. And, PMs will survive the "crash" as money (at what level, I do not know). The evidence of this is that all of the Central Banks are currently stockpiling the stuff (physical). If gold goes to $3,500/oz it will not be so much that gold increased in value but rather that the $ decreased in value. The fact is that the entire fiat monetory system (world-wide) and Wall Street are corrupt. They can't screw with gold and silver except to attempt to manipulate their values. I don't believe that their attempts at manipulation will stand over time.

BTW, there will be no effective confiscation of the stuff either IMHO. Thank God I only have to put up with these fools for another 20 years or so.

BTW, at Provident Metals, the certain minimum is very low, maybe as low as 0.2 - 3 oz of gold, certainly 1 oz of palladium, etc. This I know from experience.

Your pick of $3,000+ as too high. Interesting. In the last decade gold has gone up by a factor of 6. You think another factor of 2 is too much from this point on? Why?

OPA

<< <i>In the last decade gold has gone up by a factor of 6. >>



You need to ask yourself...what has it done since 1980 and not since the last bull run.

derryb

One needs to consider the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 90% since 1950.

Baley

One needs to consider that most people are more concerned about the purchasing power of a dollar they earned in 2011 or 2012, and far less concerned about the purchasing power of a dollar they earned 62 years ago. Most likely, they spent those dollars between then and now, and if they didn't, most likely the dollar from 1950 has been invested and working all those years.

Even if they left the dollar earned in 1950 as a paper dollar, the note is worth a lot more than a dollar, particularly if a crispy gem.

Mesquite

OK, a bit of back of the envelope ciphering.

Gold was at $900 in January 1980 (an estimate).

Using the rule of 72, 4.5% inflation will cause a 50% decrease in the value of the dollar every 16 years.

There have been two 16 year periods since 1980. (So, today's dollar has 25% of the value of a 1980's dollar).

By my reckoning, assuming that that $900/oz. number was real (as opposed to being a manipulated number) then gold should be valued at $3,600/oz. today.

Conclusions.

1. I'm very happy to have spent 2009 thru 2012 dollars to purchase the gold I have today as opposed to 1980 dollars.
2. We have not come close to matching the old high in gold value - we still need to have the price go up another $2,000 to reach that landmark.
3. US monetary policy has sucked for the last 34 years.
4. And, either the market was lying to us in 1980 (probably true) or it is lying to us now (also probably true).

Justacommeman

Broken Record Alert from me- I assume that everybody here has insurance on their house, life and car. Gold is simply wealth insurance IMHO.

MJ

tneig

--- In specific relation to this one persons article, I feel He cannot substantiate his claim from his own words and His past predictions. He was incorrect before and he's claiming the most dramatic change on top of his poor guess record, with vague time guess, and rederick for the 'shock value' of his article. He devalued his own prediction within his own article.

Hey, I with ya. I buy PMs too now..

----------Historical Chart View---------------
I do look at these charts over the last 20++ years and I don't see a steady inflation climb.
The climb (bubble?) over the last decade, is in contrast to a longer history and flatter price, even while inflation was going on.
Flat performance 20+ previous, then a big bubble in 1980. Then flat for 20years (while inflation was still going on).
More of an unusual climb over the last decade, with a correction in 2008, and now, look more like spikes over the long term chart.
Makes me consider the gold price is not evenly related to inflation, but other factors as well.

We need more months or so to see what will happen (slowly creep up, flat, drop, or fast climb)?

------------The other side-----
We could actually start to fix things, thus slowing the gold price climb. I hope $3000++ is a long way ahead because if it comes as fast as the last decade, stuff will breakdown fast. At $3500 'all of it' will lose meaning. We want the system to stay in place and we don't want it to get that high so fast. Selling gold then will get you, devalued dollars. Trading it for something other, will be questionable and problematical to put it nicely.

From a newbie into this, I want it to go down first, further, then go to $2200, slowly.
I want silver to bust out, and I think that could actually help!
I want the alternate safety of PMs, and the system in-place during my retirement.
I want us rich and happy at $2200-2500.
But I don't want society to breakdown and us all to die at $3500.

Justacommeman

I thought he did real good on his Angels predictions. One could have made a lot of money trading with the Angels as targets. MJ

DieClash

<< <i>One needs to consider the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 90% since 1950. >>



Absolutely true! And my 1914 dime is worth about a half-cent today (par value only!), a denomination which the U.S. Mint discarded in the late 1800s (Hint, Hint!).

But currency values are relative, especially fiat currencies, against other currency values and the U.S. $ is appreciating in value nowadays, which is one reason why oil, a dollar-denominated commodity, has dropped in value since early spring. Which is why I have always felt that investing in precious metals is not "investing" but rather a secure store of value in times of economic stress. Securities still are the best rate of return on investment in the long run. IMO.

Cheers!




Kirk

jmski52

--- In specific relation to this one persons article, I feel He cannot substantiate his claim from his own words and His past predictions. He was incorrect before and he's claiming the most dramatic change on top of his poor guess record, with vague time guess, and rederick for the 'shock value' of his article. He devalued his own prediction within his own article.

If you haven't ever read any of his information, you probably should start.

Mesquite

While we're at it. A little Peter Schiff.

tneig

I will, and thanks for the feedback.



<< <i>--- In specific relation to this one persons article, I feel He cannot substantiate his claim from his own words and His past predictions. He was incorrect before and he's claiming the most dramatic change on top of his poor guess record, with vague time guess, and rederick for the 'shock value' of his article. He devalued his own prediction within his own article.

If you haven't ever read any of his information, you probably should start. >>

leothelyon

Last month nonfarm jobs report was 69,000 which caused gold to jump $50. Add just 11,000 jobs (80,000) and gold falls $30?? And it dropped after all the recent rate cuts and easing from abroad as well?? Just doesn't make any sense.

Baley

Despite the number of times it's stated around here as fact, Gold does NOT move in a Direct Relationship to the strength (purchasing power) of the dollar, nor the jobs number, nor the prime rate, nor the inflation rate, nor the number of foreclosures, nor changes in the trade imbalance, nor the crop reports, nor the level of international tension, nor the issue of Hot Mint Products, nor any other single factor.

yellowkid

How can he be wrong, he's a "dynamic thinker"

streeter

I do not believe that any 'JOBS REPORT' has a direct correlation to the price of gold.

I'm leaning towards the belief that gold is overpriced currently. I am confident that silver IS over priced. That's not to say that either or both will not move up in the long run--just that they are currently too expensive for what they give you at the present time.

One has a lot of choices where to dedicate ones resources and there are better alternatives right now.

edit: but I'm not writing copy for a newsletter that has to hook subscribers with alternative 'investing' ideas

philographer

Patience...

1980-Still waiting in inflation adjusted terms...

KUCH

Patience......

Central Banks (Foreign countries) are buying gold. The US sold it's gold a long time ago, but did USA recover gold in the wars with Iraqi, Libya, ect?

Gold now is a hedge agaisnt soverign debt and betting that liquidity will continue to flow to the yellow metal.

What's most important to realize is that in times of uncertainty you need added protection in real assests, yes u need some cash, however any other paper investment carries a great deal of risk. Again, there is no rule of law, remember, MF Global, Barclays, etc. etc.

Set your buy price, set your sell price, I've recently just reset my sell price. Hold to those convictions and have........

patience.

jmski52

Again, there is no rule of law, remember, MF Global, Barclays, etc. etc.

People aren't getting this, but they ought to be paying attention. MF Global's missing $1.5 billion was outright theft of "segregated accounts" and nobody has been prosecuted.

JP Morgan paid a fine a couple years ago for selling physical gold in "segregated accounts" that didn't exist.

Goldman Sachs has sold stocks on inside information while they recommended those same stocks to clients and screwed their own clients (the same clients that they called "mullets" in their internal emails). Goldman Sachs as a firm frontran their own Treasury auctions to profit from the expected bid/offer and volumes of those same auctions. While we're on Goldman Sachs, we could add AIG's bailout so that Goldman Sachs wouldn't have to take a hit of $15 Billion if their leveraged bet with AIG was defaulted on. And the fact that AIG's management got nice bonuses that year for their superb job of stealing money from the public, never to be repaid.

We have Warren Buffett now showing up as the owner of Wells Fargo as far back as 2005 and getting bailed out of their bad loan portfolios along with the change in FASB accounting standards. Is THAT how he got talked into selling his silver position right about that time - so that he would be made whole "down the road"? And we have Warren Buffett's opposition to the Keystone Pipeline so that his Union Pacific can inefficiently haul the crude oil from Canada to Cushing in railcars. What a fabulous boondogle! But remember, Warren Buffett wants to "levy higher taxes on rich people" while he fights against his own $15 million tax bill in court.

And then there's Lloyd Raines of Fannie May taking his $6 million? $8 million? golden parachute instead of being prosecuted for taking his nice salary & bonuses while driving the quasi-governmental agency into a financial ditch. And getting away with it.

We know about Goldman Sach's High Frequency Trading black box software that was almost spirited away, but we don't know what happened after that. We do know how HFT by Goldman (and others) skims more ill-gotten money from the small fish who are still ignorant enough to think that they won't be targeted.

Let's not forget Timmy Geithner, the tax cheat who still runs the government's tax enforcement agency. As long as this type of in-your-face criminality is rewarded with some of the highest appointed positions in the land, you can be sure that it's not safe to go into the water.

Some people buy gold to make money. I'm not convinced that it's a sure thing, unless we see hyperinflation and a serious loss of confidence in the dollar. I expect that gold may take a hit before this cycle is done, but if it does I also expect most everything else to be hit much worse. It's all relative and I like my odds with gold.

There's so much corrupt crap going on in most of the markets and in government that you really can't protect yourself in the system. It goes on endlessly, so there isn't much point in spending the rest of the day documenting more cases. You might delude yourself into thinking that you're ok, but you aren't. My opinion. Kuch is quite correct. There is no rule of law for the elites. The laws only apply to the little guys. Be advised.

derryb

the game is jigged, play the jig.

michiganboy

What another forecast for gold to sky rocket, still waiting for $200 oz silver . I think these articles are just posted to hold the price up when people holding large positions are worried about a decline.

piecesofme

One needs to consider the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 90% since 1950

I guess the question I need to ask is what did an oz of Au go for in 1950?
If it was about $155/oz that would confirm your claim, but the reality is if that is in fact the case, sorry derryb, but I don't have another 60 years for Gold to reach $3500.

All I care about is what has it done in the last month, yes, the last month. Here's why. Because in this fast paced mirco-second exchanging of funds world we now live in (it's not 1950 anymore), all that matters is NOW. Not a 60 year curve.

derryb

The price of gold was fixed (approx. $34 in 1950) until the US went off the gold standard in the early 70's. This is when gold began it's role as a store of value with a declining dollar and its price was allowed to be set by the market. Gold prices before 1971 are irrelevent when comparing to the dollar. To the smart buyer, gold is not an investment, it is a protector of savings value. Gold will reach $3500 when the dollar has been devalued accordingly . That could be next year or next decade. The dollar will continue to be devalued by its makers because it is the only way for them to avoid defaulting on debt they can never repay. Spikes above or below gold's continuous tracking of the dollar's value occur as a result of emotional buying and selling and do offer temporary opportunities to profit (or lose). Gold's primary purpose for the stacker should be to preserve wealth.

Gold is currently down because the dollar is currently up. If you're looking for investments I would consider commodities that a growing population will be dependent upon. If all that matters is now, convert your gold to dollars.

Here's a cool little dollar value calculator. You can set the base year on the left and then see how much the dollar's value has declined since then on the chart on the right. Set it at 1971 when the dollar decoupled from gold and take a look at the dollar's value each year since then, then take a look at your gold charts.

piecesofme

Thanks derryb, all very good, and helpful information.

derryb

Do not confuse dollar value (it's purchasing power) with the dollar index (it's strength against selected other currencies). Of the six other currencies used for the index, 54% of the weight lies with the euro. It is very possible for the dollar index to be trending upward (because of weaknesses in what it is getting compared to) and still be losing purchasing power.

pmcollectour

<< <i>Again, there is no rule of law, remember, MF Global, Barclays, etc. etc.

People aren't getting this, but they ought to be paying attention. MF Global's missing $1.5 billion was outright theft of "segregated accounts" and nobody has been prosecuted.

JP Morgan paid a fine a couple years ago for selling physical gold in "segregated accounts that didn't exist.

Goldman Sachs has sold the same stocks on inside information while they recommended those same stocks to clients and screwed their own clients (the same clients that they called "mullets" in their internal emails). Goldman Sachs as a firm frontran their own Treasury auctions to profit from the expected bid/offer and volumes of those same auctions. While we're on Goldman Sachs, we could add AIG's bailout so that Goldman Sachs wouldn't have to take a hit of $15 Billion if their leveraged bet with AIG was defaulted on. And the fact that AIG's management got nice bonuses that year for their superb job of stealing money from the public, never to be repaid.

We have Warren Buffett now showing up as the owner of Wells Fargo as far back as 2005 and getting bailed out of their bad loan portfolios along with the change in FASB accounting standards. Is THAT how he got talked into selling his silver position right about that time - so that he would be made whole "down the road"? And we have Warren Buffett's opposition to the Keystone Pipeline so that his Union Pacific can inefficiently haul the crude oil from Canada to Cushing in railcars. What a fabulous boondogle! But remember, Warren Buffett wants to "levy higher taxes on rich people" while he fights against his own $15 million tax bill in court.

And then there's Lloyd Raines of Fannie May taking his $6 million? $8 million? golden parachute instead of being prosecuted for taking his nice salary & bonuses while driving the quasi-governmental agency into a financial ditch. And getting away with it.

We know about Goldman Sach's High Frequency Trading black box software that was almost spirited away, but we don't know what happened after that. We do know how HFT by Goldman (and others) skims more ill-gotten money from the small fish who are still ignorant enough to think that they won't be targeted.

Let's not forget Timmy Geithner, the tax cheat who still runs the government's tax enforcement agency. As long as this type of in-your-face criminality is rewarded with some of the highest appointed positions in the land, you can be sure that it's not safe to go into the water.

Some people buy gold to make money. I'm not convinced that it's a sure thing, unless we see hyperinflation and a serious loss of confidence in the dollar. I expect that gold may take a hit before this cycle is done, but if it does I also expect most everything else to be hit much worse. It's all relative and I like my odds with gold.

There's so much corrupt crap going on in most of the markets and in government that you really can't protect yourself in the system. It goes on endlessly, so there isn't much point in spending the rest of the day documenting more cases. You might delude yourself into thinking that you're ok, but you aren't. My opinion. Kuch is quite correct. There is no rule of law for the elites. The laws only apply to the little guys. Be advised. >>




Well said.

steveben

<< <i>gold doesn't go up - dollars go down. The question is will dollar go that low. Dollar destruction is the order of the day and in the foreseeable future. >>



i think this is the case. and if it does hit $3500 per, we'll be selling for some other kinda paper...not amercian $ most likely.