***JULY 2012 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
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This is a continuation of the monthly trading thread to discuss the trading of PM-related stocks, options, and futures.
It's interesting how a strong rally day seems to change the opionions and minds of many who comment on the market. Gold did rally just in time to preserve the weekly pattern. This consolidation just about hast to be done, although I suppose it could drag out another 5 weeks within a narrow range. Nichols has identified Friday as a major cycle date, meaning that it is possible that a new cycle is about to start. New cycles usually start with a big move one direction or another. The long term fractal energy is fully loaded so this will be interesting.
RR & Kiplinger note that "Commercial silver futures traders remain at one of the lowest net short positions in years, as discussed in our last Report. That should be bullish for silver prices in the weeks ahead." Kiplinger also notes that, "At the same time, commercial traders of copper futures are at their biggest net long position since July 2009."
It's interesting how a strong rally day seems to change the opionions and minds of many who comment on the market. Gold did rally just in time to preserve the weekly pattern. This consolidation just about hast to be done, although I suppose it could drag out another 5 weeks within a narrow range. Nichols has identified Friday as a major cycle date, meaning that it is possible that a new cycle is about to start. New cycles usually start with a big move one direction or another. The long term fractal energy is fully loaded so this will be interesting.
RR & Kiplinger note that "Commercial silver futures traders remain at one of the lowest net short positions in years, as discussed in our last Report. That should be bullish for silver prices in the weeks ahead." Kiplinger also notes that, "At the same time, commercial traders of copper futures are at their biggest net long position since July 2009."
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Comments
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<< What a candle. MJ >>
Chart looks great. Holding above upward sloping moving averages and price support. Whats not to like? >>
Referring to the giant looking red thing that engulfed the previous 7 candles
BTW you are usually the first to point out bearish engulfing candles especially if it's pro dollar or anti metals
MJ
You are absolutely correct. I'll call em as I see em. And I aint seein no bearish engulfing candle. When the uptrendline breaks I'll change my tune. Im not pro-dollar or anti-Pms, but im not pro-PMs or anti-dollar either. I see limitations in both.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Now im going to hear that the dollar is just losing a race to the bottom vs other currencies. I hate to tell ya, but the lowly dollar buys more corn, oil and real estate than it did 5 years ago. Food, energy and housing---thats all I care about.
If it doesnt buy as much gold or silver, then I suggest you are looking in the wrong place.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Hasnt changed my mind PC. Dollar still in uptrend, gold in downtrend. >>
I don't see where you see the downtrend. That is a classic consolidation pattern. The next trend has yet to start.
<< <i>For the last 5 years I'll i've heard is that the dollar is going to 60 or 50 or even 0. And for the last 5 years I've been saying it aint gonna happen. Well?
Now im going to hear that the dollar is just losing a race to the bottom vs other currencies. I hate to tell ya, but the lowly dollar buys more corn, oil and real estate than it did 5 years ago. Food, energy and housing---thats all I care about.
If it doesn't buy as much gold or silver, then I suggest you are looking in the wrong place. >>
It doesn't buy as much gasoline. And according to the crude futures charts oil is about the same as it was 5 years ago if not a tad higher. Real estate is an anomaly. In my market, rents are slightly higher than they were in 2007. You neglect to mention that had you held gold for 5 years you could purchase ~2.4x (silver ~2x) as much as the dollar purchases today.
I'm glad I held PMs for the last 5 years rather than USD.
<< <i>For the last 5 years I'll i've heard is that the dollar is going to 60 or 50 or even 0. And for the last 5 years I've been saying it aint gonna happen. Well?
Now im going to hear that the dollar is just losing a race to the bottom vs other currencies. I hate to tell ya, but the lowly dollar buys more corn, oil and real estate than it did 5 years ago. Food, energy and housing---thats all I care about.
If it doesnt buy as much gold or silver, then I suggest you are looking in the wrong place. >>
You have been right. In an ugly contest it has plenty of competition. Just the same I've made out EXTREMELY well beating against the dollar during this time period with the Swiss, Canadian, Yen and especially the pile of rocks currency........the Aussie dollar.
I was referring to the bearish engulfing candle on the daily's obviously. You are correct on the weekly.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
PC, I didnt neglect to state that gold would buy more as there are plenty of other investments that have performed similarly, so why mention any one specifically. Real Estate isnt an anomoly. Had RE not collapsed, the dollar could very well be at a much different level than today.
Another weekly close and gold hovers just above important support. Lots of short fingernails out there.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>PC, I didnt neglect to state that gold would buy more as there are plenty of other investments that have performed similarly, so why mention any one specifically. Real Estate isnt an anomoly. Had RE not collapsed, the dollar could very well be at a much different level than today. >>
The whole RE boom and bust is an anomally when viewing markets from a long term picture. Certainly though the extreme movements have affected other markets as most markets are related to varying degrees.
<< <i>Another weekly close and gold hovers just above important support. Lots of short fingernails out there. >>
I figure we're good as long as gold stays above 1565 for the week and it looks like it will hold so far. Looks like the consolidation is going to extend out a bit longer. Should have resolution within a month.
Resolution of this pattern should be in the next few weeks, however a larger pattern could develop that extends the consolidation out for several more months.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Triangle consolidations typically resume the previous trend - I don't believe they are often associated with reversals.
Also consider that a drop in gold from here would imply a surge in the USD. The big problem with this is that the PTB want (need) a weak dollar to bolster the economy and the stock markets and to help maintain the rosy picture before the big election, so such a scenario is contrary to the goals of making the economy look as good as possible. Don't bet against the fed.
Furthermore, PM sentiment is about as low as it gets, as are associated ETF holdings. It would be unlikely for ETF holdings to reduce much further or for investors to get more negative. There is not a lot of supply available to be dumped onto the market. Where will the supply come from?
The only question in my mind is timing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Looks like gold will finish the day & week at current levels around 1580...
SYNC
Pump and dump, short squeeze...what ever you call it, it's been a fun ride thus far.
Now that I post this it should bomb.
TIME TO LOAD UP ON SILVER AND GOLD !!!
<< <i>Interesting to note that gold is pretty close to its price exactly one year ago. >>
Yeah but not near as interesting as watching this faltering economy presided over by the Deceiver in Chief.
Another one bites the dust. Another leftist run local government that hopefully learns to revert back to the Conservative Values that originally established its success:
San Bernardino, California, Weighs Chapter 9 Bankruptcy; That Seals the Fate
When you see headlines like this: San Bernardino, California, Weighs Chapter 9 Bankruptcy,
you know 100% without a doubt the city is bankrupt, and the only question pertains to the filing.
Barry Bonds move OVER!
GLD took some good hits this past week to fill some lower gaps, as did SLV. All lower, nearby gaps were filled. Now GLD has 3 nearby gaps sitting higher and one lower (Friday's bump).
The 3-10-30 yr TBond auctions this past week provided quite a bit of resistance to PMs. Next week is GLD and GDX options expiry along with a moon change on Thursday. Might coincide with another hit. Of more importance is the end of the month OE on the 24th to 26th which coincides with yet another set of TBond/TNote auctions. The FED meets again on the 29th. These upcoming back to back OE weeks for PMs just begs for another hit (or hits) between the 17th to 26th to fill that new GLD gap around 152.7 ($1573). Considering how hard miners got hit this past week, they might not get hit hard or at all this upcoming week. The only one constant in PMs the past few months is that gaps are getting filled.
Possible dates for a break would be July 16,19, 20, 24-25 according to McLellan's forecasted tops and bottoms. The break has to be coming soon.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Which way you think it goes PC? >>
I though I said this earlier, but triangle consolidations usually resolve in the direction of the previous trend. In this case, it would be upward.
Triangle consolidations rarely mark reversals AFAIK.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It is almost August
That is awesome - says it all.
I'll have to go for it!
Oats are almost there as well. When will gold follow along? The softs are probably just now coming off the bottom and are better linked to gold.
I see sugar's chart as having the most in common with gold and silver intermediate movements.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Corn and wheat have finally pulled up to add handles to their 3-4 yr cup patterns. What looked to be "improbable" 2-3 months ago is now complete.
Oats are almost there as well. When will gold follow along? The softs are probably just now coming off the bottom and are better linked to gold.
I see sugar's chart as having the most in common with gold and silver intermediate movements. >>
There is a shortage of the "softs" and the demand is there. Not so for Goldr Silver. Worst drought situation in over 50 years in our Corn Belt.
I guess there's a fed meeting next week. It's looking like that might be the trigger we are waiting for.
McLellan had this chart from a few days ago which probably looks even better now. They claim that the Euro chart tends to lead the USD chart in foretelling what gold is going to do. They have identified a break of the down trend in Euros.
With the ECB ready to QE, I don't see how the fed won't be eager to match the move. The last thing the fed and DC can have right now is the dollar get any stronger. And why wouldn't Japan join the party as well?
Overall, this should send PMs and stocks soaring for at least the next 3 months. My expectations for the next move are $2000-2100 for gold.
Exciting times...
<< <i>.....send PMs and stocks soaring for at least the next 3 months. My expectations for the next move are $2000-2100 for gold.
Exciting times... >>
I'm not sure how high the move will take us, but I agree that the bottom seems in tack. For years the metals have performed well going into the fall season. My tendency when I'm bullish is to buy some immediately and then if the market sinks buy more or if it soars...buy some on the run up. But I like to establish a position...and work it into a larger position.
<< <i>The movement over the next few weeks will be limited until the pattern breaks one direction or another. >>
very tough to disagree with that. "what is a tautology, Alex?"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry