<< <i>I also agree that the charts of both gold and silver do show potential for a move--and a sizable one at that. Just gotta determine the direction. I can easily 20-30% in either direction. I'll let the trendlines break before I take a position. >>
The thing that tips my expectations is that last graph I posted. Yes, ETF holdings and total short positions could decrease further (and even go long), but is that realistic? Is there anyone left to sell at this point, especially in these times of extreme economic uncertainty?
If the banksters can drive gold to <$1520 by any means possible, there will be a whole new wave of paper selling as former steady hands bail out expecting $1400's. We saw it with gold stocks once the HUI broke below the $460-$475 range and just cratered. Don't see why paper gold couldn't do the same if key support levels are broke.
This is the monthly fractal chart. I don't see this breaking down, but anything is possible. These usually resolve in the direction of the previous move. This is a pretty strong and clean pattern.
Chart of SLV with "volume by price" indicator overlayed. Volume by price shows at what price the most volume has occured. As the chart clearly shows, anyone who bought SLV, and hence silver, in the last 18 months is underwater. The chart also shows that there is very little support under $26--basically there is an airpocket. Gonna be lots of disappointed and disillusioned folks if SLV breaks.
<< <i>Chart of SLV with "volume by price" indicator overlayed. Volume by price shows at what price the most volume has occured. As the chart clearly shows, anyone who bought SLV, and hence silver, in the last 18 months is underwater. The chart also shows that there is very little support under $26--basically there is an airpocket. Gonna be lots of disappointed and disillusioned folks if SLV breaks. >>
I predict the AGQ holders will be twice as disappointed and twice as dissillusioned.
For gold, looks like the line in the sand is under a lot of pressure, will it hold? Silver looks to have already broken. Imho, It looks like the charts favor a big break.
Watch for a quick breakdown to take out the stops. If PMs are for real then they will rally hard and will have made a successful test that could lead to a major rally higher.
If PMs are not for real, then the break will be devastating. Another 20% lower and the current range will act as resistance that could last for years.
Or another couple of decades of relative stagnation. >>
Nah, just another temporary rush to cash safety like we saw at the end of 08. >>
In the meantime people lost 50% of their money (if silver is money) and 4 years of their life. Brutal. >>
If they held and sold at $40+ they made out pretty good. >>
There were a heck of a lot more buyers at 40 than sellers.
Anyone who bought in the last 18 months is underwater, some as much as 50%. Too bad silver wasnt an underwater mortgage people could walk away from. Nope, this is real money lost.
Gold and silver NEED to bounce tomorrow or they will print new closing lows on the weekly charts. GSR at 60 today. Looks like it wants 70.
<< <i>There were a heck of a lot more buyers at 40 than sellers.
Anyone who bought in the last 18 months is underwater, some as much as 50%. Too bad silver wasnt an underwater mortgage people could walk away from. Nope, this is real money lost.
Gold and silver NEED to bounce tomorrow or they will print new closing lows on the weekly charts. GSR at 60 today. Looks like it wants 70. >>
For the current holders, the money's not lost until the metal is sold. If they don't panic and they hold like the sellers AFTER 2009 did they will profit in the shift back to metal just as the 2008 holders that sold near the top did. To think that metals will not recover as a result of this economic disaster is quite naive. Metals will not make their new highs in the near future, but they will make their new highs and provide reward for those that sit. Been there, done that. Nothing has changed with the fundamentals, just as nothing had changed with the fundamentals in 2008. The only thing that changed after the 2008 drop was the level of panic and fear.
Yes, another buying opportunity. If it drops more, buy more. Those that missed out on selling at $40-49 will have another chance. They will profit more than the would have in 08-09 if they have increased their holdings since then.
This has always been my favorite comment illustrating ignorance. Sorry, but statements like this are beyond laughable. You are not the first i've called out on the carpet on this, so dont get all ruffled.
If you bought $10k in silver that is now worth $5k, then you lost money. I dont care if you convert it or not. Even if used as collateral and no sold then it is still worth 1/2. And if you dont want to compare it to "worthless" dollars, then that chunk of silver will still only procure you 1/2 as many beans, boxes of ammo, or suits.
Suppose I bought Enron at $100 and it went to 1c. But I never sold, therefore I didnt lose money? LMAO!!!
Thursday was your typical end of OE week smackdown. I expected it Tuesday or Wednesday but they held off. Banksters no doubt got some early news from the EU and knew gold was ripe to bounce......therefore they took it down $20 to give them some cushion. Even so, gold squiggled through the $1586 support level as well as the $1600 level. Probably not what they were looking for. In any case the commercials made out quite well on their 11-1 dollar futures short position. 2 weeks ago it was at multi-year record highs. PMs got very close to the edge as Cohodk said. Gold was sitting on a key weekly support line that went back to Nov 2010 while silver was sitting right at monthly support going back to Oct 2008. Breaking of either level would have been deadly. But with the gap ups today, how soon before we revisit those very levels again?
<< <i>If you bought $10k in silver that is now worth $5k, then you lost money. I dont care if you convert it or not. Even if used as collateral and no sold then it is still worth 1/2. And if you dont want to compare it to "worthless" dollars, then that chunk of silver will still only procure you 1/2 as many beans, boxes of ammo, or suits. >>
There still is no loss, especially where you say it will buy 1/2 as many beans/ammo/etc, because that relationship is not necessarily true as the prices of those commodities also fluctuates. Whose to say that a drop in the conversion rate by 1/2 for silver to USD would equate to an equivalent drop in the conversion rate of silver to xyz? I can imagine many scenarios where the conversion rate of silver to xyz remains essentially the same while the conversion to USD drops or rises significantly.
If you buy 100oz of silver, 100 years later regardless of the market rates you still have 100oz of silver. You haven't lost (or made) anything. Your conversion potential may have changed and USD may not even exist 100 years from now, but that is not the same as actually losing or winning money. If USD no longer exist in 100 years, would you say you lost money when you still hold your silver bar? What if the USD price of ammo drops in half in the same time the USD price of silver drops in half, and you convert the silver to ammo and go use (shoot) it all. Did you lose any USD? Nope! Although you would have been better holding USD and converting to USD right before you shot the ammo (which would have required half of the USD), you also couldn't claim that you made money had the USD ammo price doubled over time and you went and shot all of the ammo you bought before the USD ammo price increase.
Your Enron stock scenario is absurd because you're talking about a defunct company where the stock valuation has no opportunity to increase. To any logical person it is essentially "sold" at $.01 or less and the loss of Enron stock is incurred. But the USD were lost when you first converted the USD to stock, not when you wrote them off.
because that relationship is not necessarily true as the prices of those commodities also fluctuates
Absolutely true. You may find that beans, corn and water went up 300% thus the purchasing power of the "store of wealth" is diminished.
Those expecting the end of the US dollar will most likely be sorely disappointed.
Bottom line---you exchanged dollar for silver. Now you want to convert the silver back to dollars and you only get 1/2 as much. Yup you lost money, even if you dont convert. Such an easy concept, but human behavior ( the fear of loss) prevents most from seeing it. Again, it is another reason why few succeed in investing while most fail.
Let me see... so when I bought xyz stock 15 years ago at 30.00 and within the next five years it went south to 15.00, I looked at it and thought wow! If I sell it now I'll take a 50% haircut on this one, so I'll just hang onto it for the long haul. Over the next 10 years the stock turned bullish again and is now sitting at 40.00 and I sold it. It took me 15 years but I finally came out with a 10.00 gain which over the past 15 years has been eroded by inflation of course.
I just don't see where I lost 50% during that 1st five years except as a paper loss but not a real loss because I did not lock in the loss.
I think they call it long term investing.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
Bottom line---you exchanged dollar for silver. Now you want to convert the silver back to dollars and you only get 1/2 as much. Yup you lost money, even if you dont convert. Such an easy concept, but human behavior ( the fear of loss) prevents most from seeing it. Again, it is another reason why few succeed in investing while most fail.
Good Points! Absolutely true in every respect!
Now, remembering the reasons I buy precious metals - nothing has changed. (Well, maybe something that really does matter has changed if you count the supreme court decision on AHA.) Either way, the fundamentals for metals remain positive for price appreciation simply because of the debt and the need to monetize it. There is no other way that the government can escape from their overspending binges, which are obviously getting worse - not better.
If I thought that I'd be stuck with a permanent 50% loss in any asset, I'd be hedged against that possibility, or diversified away from that possibility, or I'd never have gone all in. However - what we see these days are merely market fluctuations based on a schizoid market mentality that can't differentiate between real money and keystrokes. Silver is only a physical commodity, but it's significantly more real than what they're doing in "the banking system".
I admire someone who can play the game and win in spite of HF trades in a corrupt system that has no interest in protecting the individual. When the music does stop, I'm already gone. I hope cohodk can say the same.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I just don't see where I lost 50% during that 1st five years
Which is exactly why this happened...
I finally came out with a 10.00 gain which over the past 15 years has been eroded by inflation of course.
And is why I wrote...
it is another reason why few succeed in investing while most fail
Or lets put it like this....
If the banks are in trouble because they hold mortgages on homes that went down in value, then maybe they arent really in trouble because we can just wait 15 years and they will make money?
The term "paper loss" was either coined by a psychiatrist or a "political correctness" activist. Neither of which have a grasp on personal responsibility, but are loaded to the gills with ego and ignorance.
I agree with you, except that something did change. And that it is the price of protection. Silver is now priced at a level that offers more protection than a year ago. And thats the whole jist of my commentary all these years. PMs can offer insurance, protection and store of value. You can also lose a bundle on them. They are assets that fluctuate in value just like any other asset. They do not have God's blessing. Some will win and some will lose. I just hope you are already gone when the music stops.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It's now 13 months into the dollar bounce which has been about the limit for rallies going back to 1995. Usually after such moves a 2-4 month pull back follows. So far we're only 4 weeks into a pullback. Doesn't seem likely that such a short time frame will suffice following a 13 month advance. But maybe this will be the first time in 17 years w/o a decent consolidation (ie single rally lasts >13-14 months).
COT report seemed as expected with commercials unloading shorts following the PM drops of last week and into Tuesday. The short to long silver ratio became even more extreme falling to 1.25. I don't recall it being lower than that even in 2008. Commercials unwound about 20,000 net short gold futures and about 5,000 silver. They did the same with their monstrous dollar short position. And with Thursday's action, they probably unloaded even more shorts in all 3 categories as they added more longs. The large gap up in commods and stocks gives some reason to cover those gaps fairly soon. The dollar's huge gap at 82 is now a mirror image of the same-sized one sitting down at 75-76 from last year. Which big USDX gap gets addressed first, 75 or 82? Based on the 13 month rebound, I'd at least think that some tiny gaps in the 78 or 79 range get addressed first.
Chart looks great. Holding above upward sloping moving averages and price support. Whats not to like? >>
For one, I don't like the fact that the volume in UUP has been declining for the past 10 months. Volume during down weeks has basically overshadowed up week volumes in that time frame. Could be a lot better. Before every dump, every stock in question is always above upward sloping ma's and price supports. I also don't like that the commercials are still carrying a large net short position in dollars with a 9-1 short to long ratio. A ratio of closer to 2-5 would be much more bullish. Commercial's positions in silver are reaching net short levels not seen in over 7 yrs. The current short to long silver ratio of 1.25 is the lowest I've seen this since tracking it from early 2008. That's probably not bullish for the dollar. I also don't like that China, Russia, Brazil, Japan, Iran, etc. are striking up currency deals which potentially takes significant US dollars out of their trades. Again, not great for the dollar, especially where oil is the trade. Most of all though, I don't like that the dollar has never rallied more than 13 months since 1995 w/o at least a full 2-3 month breather. Maybe the dollar chart looks great for the intermediate to longer term. But for now, it might have some issues in the next 1-2 months. That would give the dollar time to form a nice ABC correction that dips down close to the 200 dma. Dollar's only saving grace recently has been it being "not the Euro." Each of those currencies are just the bow and stern of the Titanic. Hard to call either one bullish fundamentally.
For one, I don't like the fact that the volume in UUP has been declining for the past 10 months
GLD volume?
Most of all though, I don't like that the dollar has never rallied more than 13 months since 1995 w/o at least a full 2-3 month breather.
The dollar is at the same level as in January. Seems like a breather to me.
I also don't like that China, Russia,....
Show me a "significant deal. All i've seen is for a few billion here and there. And if you havent noticed the USA is moving away from oil. China and Iran can trade for all the "black gold" relic that they want. The future is nat gas, and those relying on oil will quickly find themselves looking at American Arses again.
It's now 13 months into the dollar bounce which has been about the limit for rallies going back to 1995. Usually after such moves a 2-4 month pull back follows. So far we're only 4 weeks into a pullback. Doesn't seem likely that such a short time frame will suffice following a 13 month advance. But maybe this will be the first time in 17 years w/o a decent consolidation (ie single rally lasts >13-14 months).
COT report seemed as expected with commercials unloading shorts following the PM drops of last week and into Tuesday. The short to long silver ratio became even more extreme falling to 1.25. I don't recall it being lower than that even in 2008. Commercials unwound about 20,000 net short gold futures and about 5,000 silver. They did the same with their monstrous dollar short position. And with Thursday's action, they probably unloaded even more shorts in all 3 categories as they added more longs. The large gap up in commods and stocks gives some reason to cover those gaps fairly soon. The dollar's huge gap at 82 is now a mirror image of the same-sized one sitting down at 75-76 from last year. Which big USDX gap gets addressed first, 75 or 82? Based on the 13 month rebound, I'd at least think that some tiny gaps in the 78 or 79 range get addressed first. >>
79 gets addressed.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Chart looks great. Holding above upward sloping moving averages and price support. Whats not to like? >>
Referring to the giant looking red thing that engulfed the previous 7 candles
BTW you are usually the first to point out bearish engulfing candles especially if it's pro dollar or anti metals
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>For one, I don't like the fact that the volume in UUP has been declining for the past 10 months
GLD volume?
Most of all though, I don't like that the dollar has never rallied more than 13 months since 1995 w/o at least a full 2-3 month breather.
The dollar is at the same level as in January. Seems like a breather to me.
I also don't like that China, Russia,....
Show me a "significant deal. All i've seen is for a few billion here and there. And if you havent noticed the USA is moving away from oil. China and Iran can trade for all the "black gold" relic that they want. The future is nat gas, and those relying on oil will quickly find themselves looking at American Arses again. >>
I didn't suggest or state that GLD was in full rally mode with a "great looking chart." It clearly isn't. The subject here is UUP's "great chart." And similar to GLD's massive September drop, while still holding above trend lines and ma's, UUP could be headed for the same. After all, we're in the mode of QE to infinity, though trying to keep it hidden from J6P. GLD and UUP can move in opposite or the same directions at any time. And there have been cases where they moved in the same direction for months. Ironically, both gold and the dollar rallied together at this same time last year for approx 6 days.
I don't think the January level will be enough of a pull back. A classic ABC with a lower C leg is usually the norm. Dollar appears to be matching the symmetry of August 2010. A pullback to around 80 would fulfill that. The dollar bounced hard off that upper line of a 4 year sideways triangle/wedge. It it decides to traverse to the bottom of the wedge that will address the gap down at 75. That was the 3rd attempt to bust above the 4 year wedge. But even a move back to mid-range would allow some additional consolidation time. 1 month out of 14 (7%) doesn't quite cut it for time. I haven't noticed the US moving away from oil. But that's probably no different than the world moving away from the dollar. It will take years if not decades. When natural gas powered auto's start showing up with significance in the US market, then I might be convinced. Changes come slow.
Comments
<< <i>I also agree that the charts of both gold and silver do show potential for a move--and a sizable one at that. Just gotta determine the direction. I can easily 20-30% in either direction. I'll let the trendlines break before I take a position. >>
The thing that tips my expectations is that last graph I posted. Yes, ETF holdings and total short positions could decrease further (and even go long), but is that realistic? Is there anyone left to sell at this point, especially in these times of extreme economic uncertainty?
We saw it with gold stocks once the HUI broke below the $460-$475 range and just cratered. Don't see why paper gold couldn't do the same if key support levels are broke.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Nice wedge on SLV that will be broken tomorrow. >>
And it was. Gotta watch the weekly closes on both gold and silver tomorrow.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Chart of SLV with "volume by price" indicator overlayed. Volume by price shows at what price the most volume has occured. As the chart clearly shows, anyone who bought SLV, and hence silver, in the last 18 months is underwater. The chart also shows that there is very little support under $26--basically there is an airpocket. Gonna be lots of disappointed and disillusioned folks if SLV breaks. >>
I predict the AGQ holders will be twice as disappointed and twice as dissillusioned.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Imho, It looks like the charts favor a big break.
Time will tell.
If PMs are not for real, then the break will be devastating. Another 20% lower and the current range will act as resistance that could last for years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
<< <i>What, another buying opportunity? >>
Or another couple of decades of relative stagnation.
<< <i>
<< <i>What, another buying opportunity? >>
Or another couple of decades of relative stagnation.
Nah, just another temporary rush to cash safety like we saw at the end of 08.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What, another buying opportunity? >>
Or another couple of decades of relative stagnation.
Nah, just another temporary rush to cash safety like we saw at the end of 08. >>
In the meantime people lost 50% of their money (if silver is money) and 4 years of their life. Brutal.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What, another buying opportunity? >>
Or another couple of decades of relative stagnation.
Nah, just another temporary rush to cash safety like we saw at the end of 08. >>
In the meantime people lost 50% of their money (if silver is money) and 4 years of their life. Brutal. >>
If they held and sold at $40+ they made out pretty good.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What, another buying opportunity? >>
Or another couple of decades of relative stagnation.
Nah, just another temporary rush to cash safety like we saw at the end of 08. >>
In the meantime people lost 50% of their money (if silver is money) and 4 years of their life. Brutal. >>
If they held and sold at $40+ they made out pretty good.
There were a heck of a lot more buyers at 40 than sellers.
Anyone who bought in the last 18 months is underwater, some as much as 50%. Too bad silver wasnt an underwater mortgage people could walk away from. Nope, this is real money lost.
Gold and silver NEED to bounce tomorrow or they will print new closing lows on the weekly charts. GSR at 60 today. Looks like it wants 70.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>There were a heck of a lot more buyers at 40 than sellers.
Anyone who bought in the last 18 months is underwater, some as much as 50%. Too bad silver wasnt an underwater mortgage people could walk away from. Nope, this is real money lost.
Gold and silver NEED to bounce tomorrow or they will print new closing lows on the weekly charts. GSR at 60 today. Looks like it wants 70. >>
For the current holders, the money's not lost until the metal is sold. If they don't panic and they hold like the sellers AFTER 2009 did they will profit in the shift back to metal just as the 2008 holders that sold near the top did. To think that metals will not recover as a result of this economic disaster is quite naive. Metals will not make their new highs in the near future, but they will make their new highs and provide reward for those that sit. Been there, done that. Nothing has changed with the fundamentals, just as nothing had changed with the fundamentals in 2008. The only thing that changed after the 2008 drop was the level of panic and fear.
Yes, another buying opportunity. If it drops more, buy more. Those that missed out on selling at $40-49 will have another chance. They will profit more than the would have in 08-09 if they have increased their holdings since then.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
This has always been my favorite comment illustrating ignorance. Sorry, but statements like this are beyond laughable. You are not the first i've called out on the carpet on this, so dont get all ruffled.
If you bought $10k in silver that is now worth $5k, then you lost money. I dont care if you convert it or not. Even if used as collateral and no sold then it is still worth 1/2. And if you dont want to compare it to "worthless" dollars, then that chunk of silver will still only procure you 1/2 as many beans, boxes of ammo, or suits.
Suppose I bought Enron at $100 and it went to 1c. But I never sold, therefore I didnt lose money? LMAO!!!
May time be your friend.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Banks out in force today manipulating the price higher to keep the weekly closes intact. >>
I didn't think you believed in the whole " manipulating" thing..
gold was ripe to bounce......therefore they took it down $20 to give them some cushion. Even so, gold squiggled through the $1586 support level as well as the $1600 level. Probably
not what they were looking for. In any case the commercials made out quite well on their 11-1 dollar futures short position. 2 weeks ago it was at multi-year record highs. PMs got very close to the edge as Cohodk said. Gold was sitting on a key weekly support line that went back to Nov 2010 while silver was sitting right at monthly support going back to Oct 2008. Breaking of either level would have been deadly. But with the gap ups today, how soon before we revisit those very levels again?
<< <i>If you bought $10k in silver that is now worth $5k, then you lost money. I dont care if you convert it or not. Even if used as collateral and no sold then it is still worth 1/2. And if you dont want to compare it to "worthless" dollars, then that chunk of silver will still only procure you 1/2 as many beans, boxes of ammo, or suits. >>
There still is no loss, especially where you say it will buy 1/2 as many beans/ammo/etc, because that relationship is not necessarily true as the prices of those commodities also fluctuates. Whose to say that a drop in the conversion rate by 1/2 for silver to USD would equate to an equivalent drop in the conversion rate of silver to xyz? I can imagine many scenarios where the conversion rate of silver to xyz remains essentially the same while the conversion to USD drops or rises significantly.
If you buy 100oz of silver, 100 years later regardless of the market rates you still have 100oz of silver. You haven't lost (or made) anything. Your conversion potential may have changed and USD may not even exist 100 years from now, but that is not the same as actually losing or winning money. If USD no longer exist in 100 years, would you say you lost money when you still hold your silver bar? What if the USD price of ammo drops in half in the same time the USD price of silver drops in half, and you convert the silver to ammo and go use (shoot) it all. Did you lose any USD? Nope! Although you would have been better holding USD and converting to USD right before you shot the ammo (which would have required half of the USD), you also couldn't claim that you made money had the USD ammo price doubled over time and you went and shot all of the ammo you bought before the USD ammo price increase.
Your Enron stock scenario is absurd because you're talking about a defunct company where the stock valuation has no opportunity to increase. To any logical person it is essentially "sold" at $.01 or less and the loss of Enron stock is incurred. But the USD were lost when you first converted the USD to stock, not when you wrote them off.
Absolutely true. You may find that beans, corn and water went up 300% thus the purchasing power of the "store of wealth" is diminished.
Those expecting the end of the US dollar will most likely be sorely disappointed.
Bottom line---you exchanged dollar for silver. Now you want to convert the silver back to dollars and you only get 1/2 as much. Yup you lost money, even if you dont convert. Such an easy concept, but human behavior ( the fear of loss) prevents most from seeing it. Again, it is another reason why few succeed in investing while most fail.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
now I'll take a 50% haircut on this one, so I'll just hang onto it for the long haul. Over the next 10 years the stock turned bullish again and is now sitting at 40.00 and I sold it.
It took me 15 years but I finally came out with a 10.00 gain which over the past 15 years has been eroded by inflation of course.
I just don't see where I lost 50% during that 1st five years except as a paper loss but not a real loss because I did not lock in the loss.
I think they call it long term investing.
Good Points! Absolutely true in every respect!
Now, remembering the reasons I buy precious metals - nothing has changed. (Well, maybe something that really does matter has changed if you count the supreme court decision on AHA.) Either way, the fundamentals for metals remain positive for price appreciation simply because of the debt and the need to monetize it. There is no other way that the government can escape from their overspending binges, which are obviously getting worse - not better.
If I thought that I'd be stuck with a permanent 50% loss in any asset, I'd be hedged against that possibility, or diversified away from that possibility, or I'd never have gone all in. However - what we see these days are merely market fluctuations based on a schizoid market mentality that can't differentiate between real money and keystrokes. Silver is only a physical commodity, but it's significantly more real than what they're doing in "the banking system".
I admire someone who can play the game and win in spite of HF trades in a corrupt system that has no interest in protecting the individual. When the music does stop, I'm already gone. I hope cohodk can say the same.
I knew it would happen.
Which is exactly why this happened...
I finally came out with a 10.00 gain which over the past 15 years has been eroded by inflation of course.
And is why I wrote...
it is another reason why few succeed in investing while most fail
Or lets put it like this....
If the banks are in trouble because they hold mortgages on homes that went down in value, then maybe they arent really in trouble because we can just wait 15 years and they will make money?
The term "paper loss" was either coined by a psychiatrist or a "political correctness" activist. Neither of which have a grasp on personal responsibility, but are loaded to the gills with ego and ignorance.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I agree with you, except that something did change. And that it is the price of protection. Silver is now priced at a level that offers more protection than a year ago. And thats the whole jist of my commentary all these years. PMs can offer insurance, protection and store of value. You can also lose a bundle on them. They are assets that fluctuate in value just like any other asset. They do not have God's blessing. Some will win and some will lose. I just hope you are already gone when the music stops.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>What a candle. MJ >>
You can say that again!
It's now 13 months into the dollar bounce which has been about the limit for rallies going back to 1995. Usually after such moves a 2-4 month pull back follows. So far we're only 4 weeks into a pullback. Doesn't seem likely that such a short time frame will suffice following a 13 month advance. But maybe this will be the first time in 17 years w/o a decent consolidation (ie single rally lasts >13-14 months).
COT report seemed as expected with commercials unloading shorts following the PM drops of last week and into Tuesday. The short to long silver ratio became even more extreme falling to 1.25. I don't recall it being lower than that even in 2008. Commercials unwound about 20,000 net short gold futures and about 5,000 silver. They did the same with their monstrous dollar short position. And with Thursday's action, they probably unloaded even more shorts in all 3 categories as they added more longs. The large gap up in commods and stocks gives some reason to cover those gaps fairly soon. The dollar's huge gap at 82 is now a mirror image of the same-sized one sitting down at 75-76 from last year. Which big USDX gap gets addressed first, 75 or 82? Based on the 13 month rebound, I'd at least think that some tiny gaps in the 78 or 79 range get addressed first.
<< <i>What a candle. MJ >>
Chart looks great. Holding above upward sloping moving averages and price support. Whats not to like?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>What a candle. MJ >>
Chart looks great. Holding above upward sloping moving averages and price support. Whats not to like? >>
For one, I don't like the fact that the volume in UUP has been declining for the past 10 months. Volume during down weeks has basically
overshadowed up week volumes in that time frame. Could be a lot better. Before every dump, every stock in question is always above upward
sloping ma's and price supports. I also don't like that the commercials are still carrying a large net short position in dollars with a 9-1 short to long ratio.
A ratio of closer to 2-5 would be much more bullish. Commercial's positions in silver are reaching net short levels not seen in over 7 yrs. The current short to
long silver ratio of 1.25 is the lowest I've seen this since tracking it from early 2008. That's probably not bullish for the dollar. I also don't like that China, Russia,
Brazil, Japan, Iran, etc. are striking up currency deals which potentially takes significant US dollars out of their trades. Again, not great for the dollar,
especially where oil is the trade. Most of all though, I don't like that the dollar has never rallied more than 13 months since 1995 w/o at least a full 2-3 month breather.
Maybe the dollar chart looks great for the intermediate to longer term. But for now, it might have some issues in the next 1-2 months. That would give the dollar time
to form a nice ABC correction that dips down close to the 200 dma. Dollar's only saving grace recently has been it being "not the Euro." Each of those currencies are just
the bow and stern of the Titanic. Hard to call either one bullish fundamentally.
GLD volume?
Most of all though, I don't like that the dollar has never rallied more than 13 months since 1995 w/o at least a full 2-3 month breather.
The dollar is at the same level as in January. Seems like a breather to me.
I also don't like that China, Russia,....
Show me a "significant deal. All i've seen is for a few billion here and there. And if you havent noticed the USA is moving away from oil. China and Iran can trade for all the "black gold" relic that they want. The future is nat gas, and those relying on oil will quickly find themselves looking at American Arses again.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>What a candle. MJ >>
You can say that again!
It's now 13 months into the dollar bounce which has been about the limit for rallies going back to 1995. Usually after such moves a 2-4 month pull back follows. So far we're only 4 weeks into a pullback. Doesn't seem likely that such a short time frame will suffice following a 13 month advance. But maybe this will be the first time in 17 years w/o a decent consolidation (ie single rally lasts >13-14 months).
COT report seemed as expected with commercials unloading shorts following the PM drops of last week and into Tuesday. The short to long silver ratio became even more extreme falling to 1.25. I don't recall it being lower than that even in 2008. Commercials unwound about 20,000 net short gold futures and about 5,000 silver. They did the same with their monstrous dollar short position. And with Thursday's action, they probably unloaded even more shorts in all 3 categories as they added more longs. The large gap up in commods and stocks gives some reason to cover those gaps fairly soon. The dollar's huge gap at 82 is now a mirror image of the same-sized one sitting down at 75-76 from last year. Which big USDX gap gets addressed first, 75 or 82? Based on the 13 month rebound, I'd at least think that some tiny gaps in the 78 or 79 range get addressed first. >>
79 gets addressed.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>What a candle. MJ >>
Chart looks great. Holding above upward sloping moving averages and price support. Whats not to like? >>
Referring to the giant looking red thing that engulfed the previous 7 candles
BTW you are usually the first to point out bearish engulfing candles especially if it's pro dollar or anti metals
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>For one, I don't like the fact that the volume in UUP has been declining for the past 10 months
GLD volume?
Most of all though, I don't like that the dollar has never rallied more than 13 months since 1995 w/o at least a full 2-3 month breather.
The dollar is at the same level as in January. Seems like a breather to me.
I also don't like that China, Russia,....
Show me a "significant deal. All i've seen is for a few billion here and there. And if you havent noticed the USA is moving away from oil. China and Iran can trade for all the "black gold" relic that they want. The future is nat gas, and those relying on oil will quickly find themselves looking at American Arses again. >>
I didn't suggest or state that GLD was in full rally mode with a "great looking chart." It clearly isn't. The subject here is UUP's "great chart." And similar to GLD's massive September drop, while still holding above trend lines and ma's, UUP could be headed for the same. After all, we're in the mode of QE to infinity, though trying to keep it hidden from J6P. GLD and UUP can move in opposite or the same directions at any time. And there have been cases where they moved in the same direction for months. Ironically, both gold and the dollar rallied together at this same time last year for approx 6 days.
I don't think the January level will be enough of a pull back. A classic ABC with a lower C leg is usually the norm. Dollar appears to be matching the symmetry of August 2010.
A pullback to around 80 would fulfill that. The dollar bounced hard off that upper line of a 4 year sideways triangle/wedge. It it decides to traverse to the bottom of the wedge that will address the gap down at 75. That was the 3rd attempt to bust above the 4 year wedge. But even a move back to mid-range would allow some additional consolidation time. 1 month out of 14 (7%) doesn't quite cut it for time. I haven't noticed the US moving away from oil. But that's probably no different than the world moving away from the dollar. It will take years if not decades. When natural gas powered auto's start showing up with significance in the US market, then I might be convinced. Changes come slow.