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***JUNE 2012 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
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This is a continuation of the monthly trading thread to discuss the trading of PM-related stocks, options, and futures.
Thought I'd post the monthly chart. The momentum indicator is down from the sky but it still positive. RSI and PFE are about as low as it has been in the past 10 years except for 2008. Of course, they can go lower.
I'd like to point out that the POG in Euros is actually looking pretty decent. With the European crisis one would have to expect that there's a lot of buying in Europe but the rising dollar will be a big headwind for POG in USD. If USD ever starts to decline, gold may have a chance of increasing, and could go up quite quickly given the current oversold and extremely negative sentiment.
Thought I'd post the monthly chart. The momentum indicator is down from the sky but it still positive. RSI and PFE are about as low as it has been in the past 10 years except for 2008. Of course, they can go lower.
I'd like to point out that the POG in Euros is actually looking pretty decent. With the European crisis one would have to expect that there's a lot of buying in Europe but the rising dollar will be a big headwind for POG in USD. If USD ever starts to decline, gold may have a chance of increasing, and could go up quite quickly given the current oversold and extremely negative sentiment.
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Comments
<< <i>Gold up over $55. The big money smells QE3 coming real soon. >>
Not sure why there was ever any doubt. Bernake can't let the dollar get too strong, as it is politically unacceptable to have the stock market suffer and to have the drag on the economy during an election year. The race to the bottom is in full swing.
Happy that I have been buying. Lookin forward to more time. Poised... See what happens.
New: I'm litterally sitting here at my desk, crying my eyes out! No silver fix to finish out the week.
<< <i>Not so happy here as I was prepping a nice private buy today in silver. Happy for those waiting for the increase.
Happy that I have been buying. Lookin forward to more time. Poised... See what happens. >>
Silver's still a bargain at the current price of $28.50...
Edited to add: Is gold looking for a $100 move? It doesn't look to be running out of steam and just $30 to go to make it a $100 move from the low last night.
A break below $1500 puts $2000 years away.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
GLD up against downtrend line and 50dma.
I'll be content to have GDX called away as I think I cna get back in under 45.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
<< <i>SLV still trying to get over 28.
GLD up against downtrend line and 50dma.
I'll be content to have GDX called away as I think I can get back in under 45. >>
GDX gapped up this morning on the open (15 min chart) so good chance it comes back to retag that as gold retests this breakout.
That's a >20% move in GDX that last 2-1/2 weeks. The last fakeout was a break below the recent IH&S, then hitting the 3 month downtrend line, and
bouncing....all in one day (Wed.). GDXJ and NUGT both left somewhat large hourly gaps on today's open. AngoGold Ashanti (AU) still has annoyingly large gap
at just under 33. At some point in the short or intermediate term that should get filled. GSR rising on today's action (silver advancing more slowly than gold) does
raise some questions. Today, PMs and gold/silver mining stocks were a risk off trade. Go figure! Some of the grains still getting pummeled so there is still rough
sledding for several parts of the commodity sector.
Dollar looks spent in the short term. On the NFP report it ran right up to test the August 2010 high of 83.56 then fell back. It was time for a rest anyways since it ran up from 78.5.
The Euro/Jpy and Ndz/Jpy crosses both seemed to capitulate today along with the dollar, euro, aussie, and cando. But the stock market didn't take it well as it
put in a nasty looking inverse hammer candle today. The massive long Euro/short Dollar positions that the commercials were building finally turned the tide it seems.
Without the >200,000 jobs that the birth death model added in both April and May, both months would have had negative job creation (ie -135,000 for May).
The dollar found first resistance after the breakout. Maybe due for some backing and filling, but im not sure its finished running. Some might try to see an inverse H&S pattern that would project to the 88 area.
The dollar would probably be a lot higher if not for the strength of the YEN which is 17% of the currency basket. The YEN is up against resistance now though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Im showing a nice $1 gap on the open. Perhaps also an inverse H&S that would project to the $48 area. >>
My chart is a daily. Does the fill the gap rule apply to all time frames?
Gaps on all timeframes "usually" get filled, but certainly not always.
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several years ago.
I think oil dipped far enough to adequately touch that 2 yr H&S neckline in the 81-82 range. Probably get a decent bounce before possibly challenging it again.
Yet again the commercials piled on the dollar shorts this past COT report. It's been a long time (or possibly never) since they carried 55,000 shorts. Ratio was raised to
6.5 short to long with a net 8,700 shorts added. In one month they've taken their net short position from 14K to 47K....a huge change.
I think I heard some discussion of a FT article discussing an announcement from the Fed on Wednesday speculating that they will announce a QE3 (or QE #97) where the fed will buy mortgage debt, possibly pushing mortgage rates another percent lower or more. Of course, such an announcement would launch gold back up to $2000 in short order I do believe. The timing is right and just such a move might bring the USD index back down to the 78-80 range. So although gold is ready for a move Tuesday, hard to say wha the action might be on Tuesday but the speculators may start to run gold up in anticipation of the announcement. Stay tuned... I think this is going to get exciting.
SLV needs to hurry up and decide if its gonna break 28.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Who would buy these? Why not just stick under a mattress? Negative return when factoring in inflation.
<< <i>Rather than get back into GDX, I decided to take a position in CLF as I think there is greater return potential.
SLV needs to hurry up and decide if its gonna break 28. >>
GDX looks to be about at the point of backtesting the large H&S/broadening top neckline breakdown. Should get repelled. RSI and W%R on BPGDM now about maxed out.
From this point GDX "usually" runs for another 1-2 wks. On the CLF chart it looks like it just broke below the neckline of a 30 month H&S. There are numerous longer term
H&S patterns breaking down across many sectors. CLF looks to me like it's just getting started in its final breakdown leg and headed for 25-30. That will give it a nice
retest of the support line formed by the 2008 and 2010 highs and 2011 low. The gold and silver miners just went through that type of washout. Short of some miraculous
Ben HurQEse, I don't see why the other sectors won't go through their cleansings as well and achieve those H&S objectives.
The 60% selloff over the last 11 months is enough of a washout for me to consider taking a position.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I think CLF is bouncing off the neckline in the 44 area. It also sports a 5.7% dividend, which was just increased.
The 60% selloff over the last 11 months is enough of a washout for me to consider taking a position. >>
This is on my shopping list as well. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold and silver approaching technical levels now. Will post charts when I get a chance.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>CLF as in the mining, cliffs natural?? >>
Yup.
Position closed. Made 6%. Maybe try to get back in around 47.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>Bull trap?
The downtrends never were broken. Bulls have to hope todays activity is just trying to close yesterdays gaps. Slv back under 28 is discouraging. Still holding off on buying back GDX.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
if GLD fills, which I think it will. It came too close today not to go all the way. Already we're within the influences of next week's GLD and GDX options expiration. They usually
start the fun and games Tuesday but there's nothing like an early start to catch the worm. Bradley turn date on the 12th sort of lines up with mid-next week bottom. Also TBond
auction week coming up which also adds to the headwinds. Retesting GLD's triangle breakout needs to be a bit deeper than today's $1577. The apex of that triangle is around $1560.
<< <i>Even considering todays drop in SLV it still looks very good on the Weekly and Monthly charts. >>
SLV will look good on the weekly and monthly until it hits $8. In the meantime investors will have lost 80% and 4 years.
Roadrunner, im not seeing any break of a triangle. All moving averages--50, 150 and 200 trending lower now. RSI cant get above 60 and MACD stuck below 0.
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<< <i> Roadrunner, im not seeing any break of a triangle. All moving averages--50, 150 and 200 trending lower now. RSI cant get above 60 and MACD stuck below 0. >>
The sym. triangle is the short term one formed from May 15th to June 1st. After breaking out of that and hitting $1600 it has now backtested the upper triangle line perfectly
at $1554. You can also draw that downtrend line back further to May 1st so it backtested that line as well. If it stays under $1550 it will have negated that original triangle
breakout. Gold is still determining whether this triangle is just a continuation in the downtrend or an initial hint of an intermediate term upmove.
The rally this week just tested the "floor" during Mar/Apr.
A close under 1560 will take out the stops just under 1500. Then we'll have to see it it bounces. The upside is capped just above 1700. Gold is in "no-mans" land.
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<< <i>
<< <i>Even considering todays drop in SLV it still looks very good on the Weekly and Monthly charts. >>
SLV will look good on the weekly and monthly until it hits $8. In the meantime investors will have lost 80% and 4 years.
Roadrunner, im not seeing any break of a triangle. All moving averages--50, 150 and 200 trending lower now. RSI cant get above 60 and MACD stuck below 0. >>
You might consider that good but I would consider it a melt down. Obviously you think in a very limited time frame, 20 minutes to an hour by most of your trading posts.
We don't all do the hourly or 10 minute trading routine. As you also indicated you look at the commonly accepted norms in your trading tools and criterias. A longer term outlook is
a good way to conduct the overall operations of trading mixed with shorter term goals thus utilizing the daily and hourly but keeping the bigger picture in mind.
A lot of indicators and patterns would most likely reverse on the weekly and monthly if we broke the recent lows, to say that they would stay positive to $8 is a little far fetched, at least to me.
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retracement of the 49.82 high and the 8.40 low, that is not showing signs of a really healthy bull. This area needs to hold or we may be looking at the 16.00 area in the future. Currently it appears promising but this area needs to hold.
Couldnt have said it any better myself.
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Agreed. Can you explain the "fractal dimension". I havent used that oscillator and cant say from your graph whether it is a good indicator.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Some numbers for possible discussion...
I think the ratio reverts back to 45. So how do we acheive a ratio of 45? Could be a 900 SPX and 2% 10yr. Or maybe a 1500 SPX and 3.33% 10yr. Or a 600 SPX and a 1.33% 10 yr. Or a (relatively) benign 1125 SPX and 2.5% 10yr. This is over a 6-12 month time. Immediately the target would be for a ratio of about 65. Thoughts?
How would gold fare in the above possiblities?
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I knew it would happen.
You asked for some thoughts, they may or may not be germain. The chart would imply some degree of reversion to the trend normalcy at around the ratio of 45. Looking at the historical trendline, it seems to reflect the longterm trend of lower interest rate yields for the past 30-40 years.
I believe that the pressure is on rates to remain low, if the current debt structure isn't repudiated. Therefore, I would lean toward the outcome of 600 SPX and a 1.33% 10 year.
That's assuming that we aren't at the point of debt repudiation, which we indeed seem to be approaching. We have Europe repudiating their debts in succession, one after the other. Our debt level is epic, and on a percentage of GDP it is just as serious.
The trends will continue until they don't. I see lower rates and money creation to fill the holes in budgets & balance sheets - until it stops and the debt is repudiated. The only question in my mind is "when?"
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>cohodk, I might add that Jimmy Rogers mentioned yesterday that he would short European Stock indices. Know of any good ones?
There are ETFs--iShares--that designed to track the performance of most of the European bourses.
But any good investor should have already been watching these markets. I have posted them on occaision and mentioned that most have seriously underperformed the US markets.
So if you think the SPX would be at 600 and the 10 yr yield at 1.33%, what would be the gold price?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How it works is that when the level is above 55 the chart is loaded with energy that is ready to release (either up or down). It will typically release in the form of either a retracement of a prior move or a full-fledged trend. A full trend will take the fractal below 30. Retracements always stop well short of 30. It's really helpful to know if a move is just getting started or just temporary. The chart I posted is showing that we are ready for a new trend in the weekly time frame. You can see how the fractal stabilizes and recharges as the consolidation pattern evolves. Of course, this just means a move is imminent, but it could still be a few weeks before we see it.
Here are some interesting charges from McLellan. Due to the direct relationship of gold to silver, I'd have to say gold is about ready to make a nice positive move as well.
Can they be sold short?
But any good investor should have already been watching these markets. I have posted them on occaision and mentioned that most have seriously underperformed the US markets.
Maybe so. But as a mediocre investor, I'm not willing to go paper or leverage at this time. I'm just not doin' it. It's a trust issue for me.
So if you think the SPX would be at 600 and the 10 yr yield at 1.33%, what would be the gold price?
If those other two conditions are met, I'd say about $1,000 to $1,100. I would note that gold would still be stronger on a relative basis than the S&P, just like in 2009.
However, I repeat - That's assuming that we aren't at the point of debt repudiation, which we indeed seem to be approaching. Give it a couple more years and we're right in the middle of it ourselves. My opinion. Having said that, we could see your chart before we see mine.
I knew it would happen.
I also agree that the charts of both gold and silver do show potential for a move--and a sizable one at that. Just gotta determine the direction. I can easily 20-30% in either direction. I'll let the trendlines break before I take a position.
jmski, I believe they can be sold short--if you can find shares to borrow. Many also trade put options and there are even a few "inverse" country or region specific ETFs.
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