Legend Market Report
golden
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The Legend report from the ANA in Denver is up.
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golden
Posts: 9,656 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Yet another show with weak public attendance.
I think it may be time for show promoters to revive the concept of the "Bull 100" shows from the late 1980's.
Dealers only.
One day only.
In a location very close to an airport with easy access and low fares from anywhere in the country.
This is the comment at the top of their current inventory page for Dollars.
Then below is offered an '80-S PCGS-67 / CAC for $875. Is this a "not properly graded MS-67"
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
<< <i>I just read the report.
Yet another show with weak public attendance.
I think it may be time for show promoters to revive the concept of the "Bull 100" shows from the late 1980's.
Dealers only.
One day only.
In a location very close to an airport with easy access and low fares from anywhere in the country. >>
And how would a "dealers only" show solve the issue of weak public attendance?
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
<< <i>We got offered by a collector a GEM PCGS/CAC POP 2 NONE HIGHER STD coin.
STD coin ... it's a nice coin that must be handled with rubber gloves as to not infect the other coins. Nothing worse than a CAC coin with weeping lesions.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
<< <i>I just read the report.
Yet another show with weak public attendance.
I think it may be time for show promoters to revive the concept of the "Bull 100" shows from the late 1980's.
Dealers only.
One day only.
In a location very close to an airport with easy access and low fares from anywhere in the country. >>
Not to discourage you from running with your idea, but we thought the public attendance was pretty good.
<< <i>
<< <i>I just read the report.
Yet another show with weak public attendance.
I think it may be time for show promoters to revive the concept of the "Bull 100" shows from the late 1980's.
Dealers only.
One day only.
In a location very close to an airport with easy access and low fares from anywhere in the country. >>
Not to discourage you from running with your idea, but we thought the public attendance was pretty good. >>
Interesting counter, thanks for posting it. I go to a couple of major shows a year, and I never stop by the Legend table. I just don't have any interest in dealing with a company/group of people who come across the way they do.
Until then the pcgs price guide is the best pricing guide for nice coins imo.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>We got offered by a collector a GEM PCGS/CAC POP 2 NONE HIGHER STD coin.
This has been a problem for decades for choice/gem better date seated coinage. It's nothing new. You just have to sit down and figure it out with the tools currently afforded
(ie CDN, CW Coin Values, PCGS price guide, Heritage or S/B prices realized, comparison to others similar pop dates that have had transactions, comparision to other similar coins
in similar series that have had transactions, Coinauctionhelps.com and Coinfacts pricing, etc.). These same issues occur within other 19th century series as well (bust, barber, gold, etc.).
A pretty decent method to determine the value of a better date is to ratio it to a type coin in the same grade either based on a previous price point or similar pop, doesn't even
have to be the same grade comparision. In the late 1980's rare date gem seated coinage prices were often figured out by ratioing Red Book MS60 prices to type, and then
ratioing that number into CDN or Blue Sheet for the grade in question. If a rare date in MS65 had a 2.45 MS60 ratio, then that was applied to CDN type value in MS65.
If one applies enough methods, a number of them should come up with confirming values. Insane values in CDN will occur well into the future...both on the low and high side.
I really didn't think that an inaccurate CDN price could prevent a transaction. But maybe that's the case in a weak market with lowered liquidity. Rare coins usually won't have
recent numbers to support a transaction. I'll bet when TDN's seated dollar set was being assembled that thumbrules had to be applied quite often for coins that hadn't been around
in a long time. Considering that the current market has in many areas fallen back to pricing from 2003-2004, that $29K price from 2004 for the POP 2 seated coin might be all it's
worth today. Average US home prices as well are back to 2003-2004 levels. It's not a bad area to start when trying to determine pricing. What I think is insane are all the "monster"
coins now bringing big premiums to their 2007-2008 top of the market prices. The CDN was totally out to lunch for seated coin prices in the 1984-1990 bull market and business got
done with far less data available. For decades Trends, Red Book, and the CDN just listed many of the rarer dates as the same price as common. They also filled in values for coins
that didn't even exist in higher grades. I don't know as I'd call it a disgrace or just ignorance and laziness. In any event it made things much more affordable to potential buyers.
Buying coins is not always a cookie cutter process. If it were as easy as looking up the price and grading with 100% accuracy anyone could do it and make a fine living.
It's just that not easy for anything but widgets. If anything, I would think that dealers would embrace the fuzziness of price guides and grading to allow room for them to showcase
their particular talents. It would just come down to marketing and salesmanship if pricing and grading were neutralized. There is so much pricing and pop data available today from
the past 10 years that I would say it would be hard to not come up with a price for most rare, low pop, gem coins. The number of ways to price compare is only limited by one's
imagination. It's always been preached around here that one has to ignore the price guide at times, especially when you know it's out to lunch. Most advanced collectors buying
in such areas know that....as do the dealers. We always hear about dealers and top collectors tripping over themselves to pay the highest price at auction to take home that rare prize.
Yet what I'm hearing is that this doesn't apply on the bourse floor. That raises the question as to how do the dealers sell those winning items.....on the bourse floor?
in a long time
Yup - in many cases we just had to wing it. How do you price a gem 1873-CC seated dollar when there is only one other unc and it's 3 grades lower? You have to compare it to a classic rarity - perhaps the 1838-O half or 76CC twenty center. And the classic rarities rarely trade so you have to find one [any one] that has traded recently and then figure what either of those would be worth if they had been the ones trading. It's all very complex and basically by the seat of the pants.
I go to a couple of major shows a year, and I never stop by the Legend table. I just don't have any interest in dealing with a company/group of people who come across the way they do.
Very honestly, if you collect what they sell then it's your loss. If you don't, then it just doesn't matter either way.
The frustration on the big money pop 2 coin is nothing really new especially in this recession which has been going on a long time. She neglected to mention specifics about the piece or what CW Values reflects for this coin. Even though the collector paid paid $42,000 for the coin (if reading this correctly) I can not blame anyone not wanting to pay above the current CDN bid of $21,500. I can understand her frustration about the grey sheet but the reality is any well heeled potential buyer at a show is likely to have one in their hip pocket LOL. Investing in rare coins is very volatile, especially big ticket material. Sometimes you win other times you lose. The sad thing is our collector friend may have been better off spending such big ticket money on bullion coins, especially silver in 2004 or perhaps a nice car, boat, or trip which he could have enjoyed instead.
I am curious how much more MS 65 Saints will drop vs AGE's. I recently bought a few at $2000 and some MS 64's at $1700 from a walkup seller at a show. Seems safe as my downside is gold BV. Now watch gold drop lol.
I do agree, working the floor for NEWPS can be tough bc once you get around how nice the coin is, what ya gonna be able to sell it for......and the scary thought is how long had the seller been carrying it around?
On the selling side where would you say Legend is vs CDN bid?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Funny how they keep saying how lightly attended shows are. Maybe because on Thur and Fri people are working? And we all know the last day of shows dealers leave early. Might have something to do with show attendance? Ya think ?
<< <i>"What has happened to the price of MS67 Morgans? THEY HAVE BECOME TOO STUPID CHEAP. We still believe that PROPERLY graded (CAC) pieces are worth at least $1,000.00."
This is the comment at the top of their current inventory page for Dollars.
Then below is offered an '80-S PCGS-67 / CAC for $875. Is this a "not properly graded MS-67"
and that coin is already listed as ON HOLD...must be a good value at that price.
<< <i>Wrong 73-cc. At first I thought you were talking about the Vermeulle 73-cc trade dollar. >>
Wellllll - that's a different story. Let's just say that for a while I owned the world's most expensive MS64 trade dollar! The hazards of buying raw out of auction. But I just knew in my heart the coin was a gem.
<< <i>
<< <i>"What has happened to the price of MS67 Morgans? THEY HAVE BECOME TOO STUPID CHEAP. We still believe that PROPERLY graded (CAC) pieces are worth at least $1,000.00."
This is the comment at the top of their current inventory page for Dollars.
Then below is offered an '80-S PCGS-67 / CAC for $875. Is this a "not properly graded MS-67"
and that coin is already listed as ON HOLD...must be a good value at that price. >>
Obviously someone may believe that $875 is a bargain for a properly graded MS-67. I was just curious as to why this one was not valued at least at $1,000.
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>
<< <i>I just read the report.
Yet another show with weak public attendance.
I think it may be time for show promoters to revive the concept of the "Bull 100" shows from the late 1980's.
Dealers only.
One day only.
In a location very close to an airport with easy access and low fares from anywhere in the country. >>
And how would a "dealers only" show solve the issue of weak public attendance? >>
Public attendance is not even wanted at these shows. They are designed for dealers to trade among themselves, filling want lists and the like. They are designed to keep show expenses to a minimum for dealers.
<< <i>
<< <i>Wrong 73-cc. At first I thought you were talking about the Vermeulle 73-cc trade dollar. >>
Wellllll - that's a different story. Let's just say that for a while I owned the world's most expensive MS64 trade dollar! The hazards of buying raw out of auction. But I just knew in my heart the coin was a gem. >>
Wow never knew that and did you resubmit after a cool down period or call in once you got your grade? Clearly a GEM and maybe better if the luster was stronger.
But they can take it on memo. Does the absence of a recent trade( or auction result) mean that this special coin has to go to auction for a market price to be established? Probably so.
I remember an 1807 CBH in PC 65( O.114) lg stars that went to auction 2 years ago. No trades, and a guides price around 60,000.
Several experts estimated the value around 80 to 100K. It finally cost the winning bidder 150,000.
No way that CDN or any company issuing price values would have listed this coin at or near the final resting place.
So, dealers, step aside when you are presented with this situation and recommend an auction sale. You are not going to convince the public that the special coin is worth several times recent guides.
<< <i>
<< <i>I just read the report.
Yet another show with weak public attendance.
I think it may be time for show promoters to revive the concept of the "Bull 100" shows from the late 1980's.
Dealers only.
One day only.
In a location very close to an airport with easy access and low fares from anywhere in the country. >>
Not to discourage you from running with your idea, but we thought the public attendance was pretty good. >>
I agree with Coin Rarities Online. We were very pleased with the public attendance and our results.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>Reading their market report made me spend some time looking at their inventory. Lots of nice coins but the most interesting was the two 1925 Lexingtons. One a 66 CAC and the other a 66 CAC+. Notice the difference in price 1650 vs 6950 on the plus (CDN Bid is 1150). Did not know a plus could be worth that much. >>
That is crazy. Talk about buying labels!
<< <i>Dealers cannot pay the correct price for the top pop(2 only) classic coin--that has not been traded for years, unless they want to take an awfully big chance they can find the next collector who also appreciates the undervalued coin
But they can take it on memo. Does the absence of a recent trade( or auction result) mean that this special coin has to go to auction for a market price to be established? Probably so. >>
Very tricky stuff here - what happens if the dealer inventories at the high price and no one bites? Now the coin is stale.
<< <i>So, dealers, step aside when you are presented with this situation and recommend an auction sale. You are not going to convince the public that the special coin is worth several times recent guides. >>
Same problem here. This is a thinly traded coin. Maybe the top 3-5 players are all really happy with the coins they have, and don't feel like paying the reserve. Sometimes the PQ64 you already have is more desirable from a value perspective than a 65.
I'm not saying either FPL or auction is necessarily wrong. But for these kinds of coins you have to look at more than comps and old auction records, you have to know the players. You can't know everything, you just network as much as you can and go with your gut. And if the market & top tier collectors aren't there, then you need to rethink your selling strategy.
It is a difficult task, but the answer is not trying to convince the publishers of coin values or Guides to up the value without some reference.
The new price will need to come from an established trade or auction result. Sometimes we will see the pricing for a 66 get raised when the 65 values ( sale or auction) close to 66 levels.
Or the 65 gets bumped when the 66 finds a new home at a greatly increased price. They still need some current event to adjust pricing.
Now, phooey on them when they do nothing after the referenced event occurs.
Laura was set up under another dealer's banner across from my table. I think she said earlier that she wasn't setting up. You must keep that in mind when evaluating her post. It was a buying show only for her.
<< <i>The show was moderately well attended, although Saturday was much better for retail than the other days. On Saturday the whole front of the room was vacated, so my table (center row about 7 tables in from the entrance) was the default "front of the room".
Laura was set up under another dealer's banner across from my table. I think she said earlier that she wasn't setting up. You must keep that in mind when evaluating her post. It was a buying show only for her. >>
Way to go staying for Saturday.
As a retail customer, I remember the dealers who stay till the end and shop accordingly.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Wrong 73-cc. At first I thought you were talking about the Vermeulle 73-cc trade dollar. >>
Wellllll - that's a different story. Let's just say that for a while I owned the world's most expensive MS64 trade dollar! The hazards of buying raw out of auction. But I just knew in my heart the coin was a gem. >>
Wow never knew that and did you resubmit after a cool down period or call in once you got your grade? Clearly a GEM and maybe better if the luster was stronger. >>
Actually, the luster is great. The stated reasons for non gem the first few times were the few weak stars at the top of the obverse and 'neutral' toning. Yet, when JA reviewed my set and I asked him if he thought any coins might be undergraded - he picked out the 73cc! So in the end its a lot about personal preferences as to what constitutes eye appeal.
<< <i>Reading their market report made me spend some time looking at their inventory. Lots of nice coins but the most interesting was the two 1925 Lexingtons. One a 66 CAC and the other a 66 CAC+. Notice the difference in price 1650 vs 6950 on the plus (CDN Bid is 1150). Did not know a plus could be worth that much. >>
Check out the 1854 arrows quarter - $10k with no plus, $20k with the plus
Of course, the coin looks like a lock 66 to me from the image. Here is a case where the plastic is worth -$10k
In the 2007-2008 market dealers had no problem buying such coins, even if they had been off the market for 5-10 yrs. The change in market liquidity changes the dynamics.
A pop 1 or 2 coin with an auction price from 2004 should have no problem finding a realistic value in today's market just based on how its type coin has done in that same time
period. The fact is that these coins usually don't trade very often so the problem will continue popping up every 5 yrs or so. The dealers could pay the correct price...they just
don't want to in this market. In 2007 I sold a pair of pop 1/pop 2 seated rarities that hadn't been in the market for >5 yrs. It wasn't that hard to come up with a price even
though neither had a current transaction. In 2004 I put up a pop 1 finest known by a mile seated coin that hadn't been auctioned/sold in almost 20 yrs. That was a much tougher
one and it had to go to auction again to find a price. It did end up fetching about 50% more than I thought it would, but I wasn't surprised either.
Check out the (Legend) 1854 arrows quarter - $10k with no plus, $20k with the plus
Of course, the coin looks like a lock 66 to me from the image. Here is a case where the plastic is worth -$10k
Good point. The 1854-55 arrows quarters are quite underrated in strict MS65 gem. And they are incredibly rare superb (solid 66 or better).
In my mind one of the most underrated silver type coins of the entire 1818-1930 run. There are a lot of so-so coins out there.
For some reason this type tends to come ugly and/or deeply mottled with muted luster or just plain old over-dipped and unsightly. Marks tend to abound, even on 65's.
This particular 65+ looks closer to solid 66 than solid 65. No doubt a coin that would have been in "someone's" 66 holder (or even 67) in 2004-2008.
The 1853 A&R and 1854-1855 ARR quarters almost never come with great flash. For that matter, any gem pre-1856 seated quarter tends to come without much flash.
Only distractions seem to be some ticks or scuffing in the right upper obv field.
In checking out the April CSNS Heritage sale this same 1854 quarter was in there for $17,825....in a no line fatty NGC MS65 CAC holder. No doubt it sold for 66ish money.
In the Heritage enlarged photos the coin looks to be every bit a 66 to me but calling it 65+ or ++ is certainly fair as there are a couple of obv focal tics, a few weak stars, and some
neutral to slightly negative mottled/spotted toning on the obverse. The coin was probably dipped out 20-24 yrs ago and has toned back a bit since, esp with those active label inserts.
The coin apparently didn't grade out as the auction buyer intended. PCGS price guide is MS66 - $18,500 and 65+ at $11,500. The old plastic was potentially "worth" +$5K. This coin
certainly does have an "auction history" - from April 2012. But offically I suppose it now has "no auction history" in the current 65+ plastic. Probably 2 players were figuring it as a
likely upgrade to 66.
1854 MS65 CSNS
<< <i>If Legend believes that a properly graded MS67 Morgan is worth $1000, yet they sold a presumably properly graded example (based on that magic sticker) at an asking price of $875, it seems to show a little bit of inconsistency in what Legend really thinks an MS67 Morgan is worth. What that also seems to tell us is that the buy price of the sticker company for an MS67 Morgan is likely well below $875. >>
Reality and make believe can always be 2 different numbers.
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"