Trying to surmise my dismal attitude with coin values lately

DougDismal

since i began to collect various type coins like my 1921-d walker and a few other coins i prefer not to mention due to their value and high grade, i have held the belief that every five years my coin values would steadily rise in the price guides. some have some haven't, but it's hard for me not to be very dismal about the future of the coin market in general heavily due in part because more than a few of my coins have been going down in the price guide throughout these last few years. has the coin market been dipping in general because of low buyer/seller confidence?

-Doug

Sonorandesertrat

The coin market as a whole goes through cycles. In addition, individual niches within the coin market (e.g., Walkers) go through cycles, or ups and downs. We are still in a recession, and this has certainly affected the coin market, particularly for so-called 'collector coins,' ones that do not tend to appeal to investors. If you bought coins during the last bull coin market, then you may have to wait a while to be made whole.

GoldenEyeNumismatics

From what I have observed, there has been very notable shift in attention and price appreciation from the traditional "key" dates to those dates which represent more legitimate true rarity and legitimate condition rarity.

WTCG

Coins, like real estate, stocks and every commodity in the world goes through price cycles. Values go up but they sometimes go down. If you were guaranteed a profit buying coins then there would be no reason to work or buy anything else for investment. You could just buy coins and automatically get rich. Unfortunately the world doesn't work that way.

savoyspecial

Wei nailed it.....I remember being told years back to invest in real estate because it "can't lose value"

ricko

Collecting coins as an investment is not a good financial plan, unless you are purchasing high value, rare coins, with extensive knowledge of your subject. Certainly not an endeavor for an amateur. Cheers, RickO

ambro51

Look...it could be a lot worse. Say you were a Solar Bull and bought into FSLR at its market high...over $300, and now, 1000 days later, $15 a share

RedTiger

Sounds like the op got sold a bill of goods. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

As always, when it comes to financial returns, there are collectors that do well and they tend to have certain traits:
* superior grading skill
* excellent access to coins
* market knowledge

Be above average in all three areas, and that person tends to do well financially. Be below average in all three, and that person will almost surely lose money in numismatic coins.

The cautionary tale is for those that are collecting key dates or early type because of positive price performance for the past 20 years, or gold or silver bullion for that matter. Or those that believe that they can't overpay for quality (as an aside ask the baseball Marlins or Angels that signed Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols, anyone think that one month into the season that they WAY overpaid for those top quality free agents). A person could buy key dates and/or seek quality, but if that person can't grade, doesn't have good access, and doesn't know much about the market, they are likely to lose money, with the distinct possibility of losing lots of money.

roadrunner

Key dates and even semi-keys where highly promoted from 2004-2009. It was a self-fulfulling prophecy as dealers and speculators hoarded them and
spun their prices upward. After a half dozen transaction maybe even one might find a permanent home with a collector. That fact that key dates hadn't dropped
in price in decades was probably a good selling point by the dealers. That topic was discussed around here in 2007-2008 and many felt key dates would eventually
see a significant correction. Low mintage doesn't always mean strong rarity or even "underrated." The real value in many sets resides in the 2nd and 3rd tier dates
that may not show up in specific grades despite plentiful mintages. Only research will identify them. Meanwhile, the carneys will try to spin up the price of "key" dates
by trading between themselves at higher and higher reported price levels. The only thing lacking is a high speed trading computer. The collector needs to get those
2nd and 3rd tier dates put away before the carneys get to them as well. I saw key date seated coin prices triple or more over the past decade. They had never dropped
in price either. But there's always a first time for everything.

TwoSides2aCoin

Exchange those that disappoint for ones that are most eye appealing. Then, no matter what the prices do, the coin still looks great.

crypto79

Coin values always seamed to me to be selling problem and not a buying problem. As long as you buy at level you are comfortable with and can afford to lose there are no worries. As for the selling phase i am not at that point of my life and don't have a informed opinion but I will continue to hope for the best and braced for the worst which is I have to hold on to some worthless slugs i love anyway.

paladin

Collecting what you like should reduce your exposure to the "dismalness".

MrEureka

From what I have observed, there has been very notable shift in attention and price appreciation from the traditional "key" dates to those dates which represent more legitimate true rarity and legitimate condition rarity.

This is a good example of what I consider to be the biggest long term underlying trend in the numismatic market. The market is getting more sophisticated, and quickly. (Chalk it up to the TPGs, the internet, and a hobby demographic has collectors' average number of years in the hobby steadily increasing. Increasing sophistication means, for example, less people filling albums with circ Lincolns and more people building registry sets, more people collecting colonials and ancients, etc. (Increasing sophistication also means a decrease in the number of buyers that are willing to buy a coin solely based on the assigned grade, and an increase in the number of more discerning buyers.) The trend will continue until some new excitement attracts huge numbers of unsophisticated newbies to the market. It would be interesting to speculate what that "new excitement" might be, or if it will ever happen at all.

DAM

I have found collecting what I like, rather than what someone tells me I should collect or what I think will appreciate the most, has made me very happy over the years. Whether the coin market is up or down for the coins I own, makes no difference. When the day comes that I decided to sell, is the only time it will make a difference. Worst case senario; the coin market has tanked. Even then I hope to be able to look back and say it was worth it, for the enjoyment I got.

Zoins

<< <i>Collecting what you like should reduce your exposure to the "dismalness". >>



I believe that will only reduce dismalness if you are also unconcerned about financial return.

If you are concerned about financial return, sometimes it may be prudent to avoid acquiring coins you like if they are overpriced, the same with other investments.

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paladin

<< <i>

<< <i>Collecting what you like should reduce your exposure to the "dismalness". >>



I believe that will only reduce dismalness if you are also unconcerned about financial return.

If you are concerned about financial return, sometimes it may be prudent to avoid acquiring coins you like if they are overpriced, the same with other investments. >>



Obviously, collectors and investors see things a little differently.

illini420

<< <i>Sounds like the op got sold a bill of goods. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

As always, when it comes to financial returns, there are collectors that do well and they tend to have certain traits:
* superior grading skill
* excellent access to coins
* market knowledge

Be above average in all three areas, and that person tends to do well financially. Be below average in all three, and that person will almost surely lose money in numismatic coins.

The cautionary tale is for those that are collecting key dates or early type because of positive price performance for the past 20 years, or gold or silver bullion for that matter. Or those that believe that they can't overpay for quality (as an aside ask the baseball Marlins or Angels that signed Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols, anyone think that one month into the season that they WAY overpaid for those top quality free agents). A person could buy key dates and/or seek quality, but if that person can't grade, doesn't have good access, and doesn't know much about the market, they are likely to lose money, with the distinct possibility of losing lots of money. >>




A lot of good advice here.

Would also like to add that it takes a lot of hard work, patience and even some trial and error to gain that superior grading skill, access to coins and market knowledge necessary to consistently do well financially with coins, regardless of what the rest of the "market" is doing. It doesn't happen overnight either, it can take years and the need for hard work and continued education never stops.

I have seen people come into the market wanting to get rich quick and do little to no work of their own and actually do quite well in the short term. They were either lucky because the market was unusually hot at the time or they were simply mimicing others they saw as successful in the business. But those who don't have the drive to learn things for themselves in this business and who blindly purchase coins they hear are good investments will most likely end up feeling pretty dismal in the long run.

barrytrot

First off, Doug (op), we have TDN and others with multi-million dollar collections so you don't need to feel shy with mentioning a 100k coin or two. There are a LOT of owners of 100k plus coins here.

Secondly, assuming coins will go up is pretty strange thinking. We are in a recession with historic low inflation so that means that many LUXURY items will lose favor.

Thirdly, based on the prices realized at Heritage and others, the coin market is still going strong, probably stronger than ever (as a whole), but individual "key" coins will bob and weave, of course.

Fourthly, the buy-sell spread is getting bigger and bigger so even if your coins were to go up, you may be losing money due to the cost of selling high end coins

And lastly, coins are pretty fun So enjoy your key dates, etc. Only a small percentage of people will ever own 6 figure coins in their lifetime. If you, OP, are one of them then be extremely thankful that you have had that opportunity!

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pennyannie

<< <i>

<< <i>Wei nailed it.....I remember being told years back to invest in real estate because it "can't lose value" >>



"Invest in real estate " is a real general term, I have personally never lost money in real estate and have only made money, like in anything it depends on what you invest within the genre of real estate........ie investing in real estate has always worked for me. >>



I agree with that!!

Real estate and coins are not even a good comparison, while i have bought mobile home lots for 1000 each i have never paid 400k for a coin or 100k or 60k or.... I could sell a 100k home far easier that a 15k 1893 s morgan

I have spend more time over the years looking at and buying coins than i have real estate and i am far more comfortable buying 100k plus real estate than 5k coins.