I would not be buying silver, gold right now.
Julio
Posts: 2,501 ✭
This is for investors not collectors.
My gut tells me now is a bad time. You just have to take that on my gut feeling. Anyway good luck. Live long and prosper. Take care. jws
My gut tells me now is a bad time. You just have to take that on my gut feeling. Anyway good luck. Live long and prosper. Take care. jws
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Based on a gut feeling, so keep that in mind. Take care. jws
My gut says, "nothing is changed". Anything can happen in the short term. Short term isn't my focus.
My point would be that they still say inflation is under control, the economy is getting better and that unemployment is improving.
I still think that they are lying through their teeth. Until that changes, I don't think physical silver (or gold, or platinum) is such a bad idea. My opinion.
I knew it would happen.
A for gold or silver in the now I'm not sure. The charts are cr@p.
JMHO. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Justacommeman. Yes it is safer there than say Detroit. Just don't be a high official involved in the regime change. That is getting nasty and according to the news now includes murder. That's what I meant. Take care. jws
<< <i>Justacommeman. Yes it is safer there than say Detroit. Just don't be a high official involved in the regime change. That is getting nasty and according to the news now includes murder. That's what I meant. Take care. jws >>
I'm from Detroit and I still have a home 25 miles from there. It's quite safe and exceptionally nice. I shop, party, eat and play in Detroit and have out of towners visit when schedules align. They are blown away by the city. (figuratively not literally
Most (if not 97%) of the disparaging comments made about China or Detroit for that matter come from people that have never set foot in either place. There are the good, bad and ugly in most countries/cities if you look hard enough. China and Detroit are easy targets. The ChinaPhob's in the US are clearly the vast majority. It's easy to hate on China for a lot of Americans. i get it. Some is clearly justified but the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater way too often.
All the best. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
If so, then it doesn't seem to the kind of action that would influence markets.
<< <i>You may be right. What is your time frame?
My gut says, "nothing is changed". Anything can happen in the short term. Short term isn't my focus.
My point would be that they still say inflation is under control, the economy is getting better and that unemployment is improving.
I still think that they are lying through their teeth. Until that changes, I don't think physical silver (or gold, or platinum) is such a bad idea. My opinion. >>
///
"Nothing is changed", let me explain dear comrade's remark...it's much worse because nothing has changed since 2008...except for tens of thousands of added regulations, FinReg, NDA, $5+ trillion in added debt, healthcare shackle, Hate Crimes Law, etc. It's all to protect 'them' from the increasingly angrier sheeple.
As far as PM's, do what you can legally do...stack 'em, stack 'em high. Gov't confiscation? If that happens then it will have to be discussed in another thread, probably on a secret site because if it gets to that we are (already) in deep kimchee.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>This is for investors not collectors.
My gut tells me now is a bad time. You just have to take that on my gut feeling. Anyway good luck. Live long and prosper. Take care. jws >>
Does your gut tell you that the government will start acting responsibly when it comes to borrowing and spending? If not, suggest some antacids.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
As far as PM's, do what you can legally do...stack 'em, stack 'em high. Gov't confiscation? If that happens then it will have to be discussed in another thread, probably on a secret site because if it gets to that we are (already) in deep kimchee.
Oh, Comrade Renski does point out social issues. Yes, social issues are result of financial trends. Financial trends not changed. Social trends not changed.
People will say to diversify in times of uncertainty. I've spent many years watching the markets respond to governmental rulings. Gold and silver don't care about any of that. The dollar is a "theoretical construct". Gold and silver are, simply - gold and silver. I've seen too many "theoretical constructs" crash & burn over the years, especially when they are wedded to social engineering projects and liberal pipe dreams that don't work. Take your pick. I'm going with the hard stuff.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>This is for investors not collectors.
My gut tells me now is a bad time. You just have to take that on my gut feeling. Anyway good luck. Live long and prosper. Take care. jws >>
Does your gut tell you that the government will start acting responsibly when it comes to borrowing and spending? If not, suggest some antacids. >>
That is the underlying support for the gold and silver markets, and nothing has changed for the better.
The flight of money away from China by the elite might be indicative of the size of their problems.
<< <i>I believe there are more murders in Chicago over a weekend then in all of China. >>
hey now, careful, that's a sensitive topic
I respectfully disagree. There will be no more QE, at least not until 1/20/13
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>POM, I respectfully disagree with your objection. You don't win elections by withholding QE. >>
the last round of QE did diddly to boost PM prices. Why should another round have different results?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Because QE isn't designed to support PM prices necessarily. QE isn't necessarily a monetary event anymore - it's more of a balance sheet event. It's designed to support bank stock prices and to boost bank balance sheets whilst still adding to the national debt. What people should really be paying attention to is the bond market, because it dwarfs everything else. The bond market is becoming the national debt.
Even though boosting bank stocks is a crappy way of doing it, it does help boost the market in general to boost bank stocks. And, what better way to reward the guys who run the place than to make them flush enough for nice, fat, undeserved bonuses? Gotta get those campaign donations rolling.
The order of difficulty in accomplishing QE objectives has increased significantly since Lehman, and since the home loan financing fiascos. Besides the need to offset bad debt at some level of chargeback, you have to also offset current government overspending and past government over-committments. The only real ways to accomplish that is via tax increases and a reduction of government programs - or via monetary inflation. One of those options is coming, whether or not anyone wants it.
The math never changes. Sooner or later, someone is going to want their money. I suspect that it will be the government, wanting "its money" from every citizen who has any money left. In the US, I still think that there will be enough taxpayer blowback to tip the scales in favor of inflation rather than significant increases in tax rates. Of course, I could be wrong and there's an election coming that will make a difference in that outcome.
You contend that foreign bond purchasing is increasing or stable. No matter - unless there is some miracle of accounting that I'm not aware of - the US debt load and unfunded liabilities will force a (worldwide) fiat devaluation, and I believe that the dollar is already involved in that scenario. I continue to believe that the only politically viable way to reconcile these differences between reality vs. expectations is through inflation. Inflation won't solve the problem but it allows the politicians a way to duck their responsibilities. It's been that way for a long time.
Enough about what I think. What do YOU think?
I knew it would happen.
Maybe. When China devalued by I think 40% in 1994, its GDP increased 14x over the next 17 years.
Just think if the US were to increase its GDP 3-fold over the next decade. That debt seems pretty small then doesnt it. And there is no guarantee that other assets would increase in value due to a devaluation. But if so, would a devaluation have a linear price impact on assets. IE, if the dollar were to be devalued 40%, would silver go up by 40%? That would get the price to 45---still lower than where it was a year ago. Just hypothetically of course.
I think there will be both tax increases and austerity programs in the future which probably isnt good for inflation hopeful's.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>When China devalued by I think 40% in 1994, its GDP increased 14x over the next 17 years.
Just think if the US were to increase its GDP 3-fold over the next decade. That debt seems pretty small then doesnt it. And there is no guarantee that other assets would increase in value due to a devaluation. But if so, would a devaluation have a linear price impact on assets. IE, if the dollar were to be devalued 40%, would silver go up by 40%? That would get the price to 45---still lower than where it was a year ago. Just hypothetically of course.
I think there will be both tax increases and austerity programs in the future which probably isnt good for inflation hopeful's. >>
I don't believe we will be selling the Chinese anywhere near the products they sold us. Their GDP increase was due to exportation of products and importation of jobs. The US is doing the opposite in both cases. Keep on stackin.
<< <i>the last round of QE did diddly to boost PM prices. Why should another round have different results? >>
It will have the same results - higher PMs. Gold climbed during QE2 and the ending of QE2 saw gold go parabolic from $1500 to over $1900:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
After QE2 ended on June 30th M2 continued to pile on the money with about an extra $900 BILL in 2011. That was a QE program unto itself. It certainly helped gold
along in July and August. And since then who knows how many Trillions have been injected into Euro banks on currency swaps? Another QE program unto itself. The
QE is there if you look. There may never be another formally declared QE program because of all the negative FB received last time around. So it will probably remain
just the usual constant slush money behind the scenes and around congress. Different terminology....same game plan.
After gold's massive rise into early September the QE2 effect was played out. A consolidation was needed. The QEX continues however as gold sentiment gets reworked.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The murder rate in the city has jumped to the highest level in nearly two decades.
There have been 166 murders since January first. That's up 20-percent, and we're on pace for nearly 400 this year.
When it comes to shootings, there have been 521 since January first. That's up 12-percent.
But Chicago is the highest of them all
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
That is why I am continuing to buy whenever current cash flow will allow.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I think the reason the stock market tanked last week is the realization that there won't be another round of "Quantitative Easing" anytime soon.
I think the FED operates outside of the politics of the day. If they let politics, not economics, influence their decisions, there would be a big problem in their structure.
<< <i>This is one hard-to-follow thread!
I think the reason the stock market tanked last week is the realization that there won't be another round of "Quantitative Easing" anytime soon.
I think the FED operates outside of the politics of the day. If they let politics, not economics, influence their decisions, there would be a big problem in their structure. >>
I would argue that if economics dictated their actions interest rates would be high enough to DISCOURAGE more personal and sovereign debt. Paul Volcker raised rates, regardless of the short term pain, because it was the economically wise thing to do. Avoidance of pain, especially in an election year, seems a bit political to me. Maybe after the election, the FED will put economics first.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Today we are the worlds largest debtor, we need to keep rates low.
Justacommeman; just an apology for last nights post. Every time I read it I like it less and then I hate it. It just drips sarcasm which was directed at you.
Putting a wink at the end does not change that.
I truly respect your opinions and you have a fairly good average at being correct. A great personality and while you may no longer like me as a CF/PM member you will always have my respect. Respectfully, jws. Take cafe.
<< <i>Paul Volcker raised rates when the US was the worlds largest creditor.
Today we are the worlds largest debtor, we need to keep rates low. >>
For whose benefit if not for politicos trying to keep their jobs? Rates are low for two reasons: encourage more personal debt and soften the sovereign debt crisis. Softening sovereign debt with low rates on that debt only encourages more debt. Same with personal debt. Debt is the cause of the financial crisis and the crisis will continue as long as out of control debt continues. The kicked can is approaching a cul-de-sac.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Justacommeman; just an apology for last nights post. Every time I read it I like it less and then I hate it. It just drips sarcasm which was directed at you.
Putting a wink at the end does not change that.
I truly respect your opinions and you have a fairly good average at being correct. A great personality and while you may no longer like me as a CF/PM member you will always have my respect. Respectfully, jws. Take cafe. >>
Julio don't be silly. One, I don't have feelings (being from Detroit will do that to you) and two I like you just fine!!!! I respect you sincerely. All is good my friend. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
in purchasing precious metals at this time !!!
Justacommeman, all is now good in the world. Thanks for accepting my apology. Take cafe. jws
<< <i>Our government is not useless or broken. In fact it works very well for those who own it. >>
Amen!
<< <i>
I think the FED operates outside of the politics of the day. If they let politics, not economics, influence their decisions, there would be a big problem in their structure. >>
Then how do explain the "Presdential Cycle" which has a pretty good track record, and so far this year it is playing out again nicely.
Ah, price stability. Isn't that one of the Fed's mandates? (Even if only for a day).
I knew it would happen.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Im short the YEN. Hoping this little pop above the sharply downward sloping 50dma is just a head fake. Should drop back to the 20dma, and probably a lot lower.
I've pointed out the comparison before, but one should look at a chart of the YEN and the US 10yr Treasury yield.
Just took a look at the futures----YEN getting spanked.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just about everyone reached for their billfolds today except me! Stocks, oil, the dollar, PMs....just about everything went up today. The euro and yen went down. What do any of you make of that? >>
The dollar, gold and oil all ended up flat today. The dollar index formed an ugly inverse hammer today. 80 has been the line drawn in the sand. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>Just about everyone reached for their billfolds today except me! Stocks, oil, the dollar, PMs....just about everything went up today. The euro and yen went down. What do any of you make of that? >>
The dollar, gold and oil all ended up flat today. The dollar index formed an ugly inverse hammer today. 80 has been the line drawn in the sand. MJ >>
Dollar chart still looking a-ok to me. It likes bouncing off the upward sloping 150dma (79ish) right now.
Bollinger bands getting tight on SLV. Getting timely.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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