Are we heading to a March 2008 drop in metals?

Ahrensdad

Hi all,
I am interested in your thoughts on this question. Metals normally take a break starting in the spring and into the summer. Do you expect another such break? Which is a different question altogether from the one posted in the subject line.

Thank you in advance for your responses.

Andrew

OPA

Really? Can't proove that by 2011 stats. Toss a coin .. guaranteed to be 50% correct in your assumption.

jmski52

Are we heading to a March 2008 drop in metals?

My take on the 2008 drop is that the economy was spiraling downward even before Lehman. As I remember, the banks were so freaked out that Libor went up over 4% and the resultant liquidity crisis hit stocks hard, taking the metals down with them.

Metals recovered quite a bit faster than stocks did, in the aftermath.

This time, I'm pretty confident that liquidity will flow until December. That's no guarantee for the markets. I'm also pretty sure that we are seeing too many black swans appear in the form of sovereign debt crises, derivatives, unfunded liabilities and geopolitical unrest - to avoid an inevitable train wreck in terms of the monetary system.

I do think that the stock market and bond markets will be hit hard, and that the metals will go right along with them - down. I also think that the metals will again recover somewhat, while the paper markets won't be quite so lucky this next time 'round.

The timing - it could happen now, but I see a market meltdown sometime before the election, in spite of the liquidity. People will start to freak before November rolls around. I wouldn't be surprised to see an "emergency" declared under dubious circumstances, especially after a bunch of retirement accounts get creamed a second time.

I do think that we are on treacherous ground right now. JMHO.

tneig

It's a good time to buy when its down, and it will go up again. Any really big reason to expect a big plung?
The thirty'ish range seemed to be ok.

Timbuk3

Got quite a bit of PM's.
Not ready to get out yet.
Bad feeling about PM's
short term future. Looks
like downward trend right
now !!!

DrBuster

I've got years of buying yet, on the way down and up...any dip is appreciated here.

Baley

What metals need is some

NeWs!!

hopefully we can get some kind of serious threat or actual manifest disaster, or a real or manufactured CRiSiS to help these sleepy precious metals prices!!



At least, someone needs to discredit every scrap of good news and spin it as an impending problem, hopefully with some kind of conspiracy to go along with it

jmski52

Housing is recovering and mortgage rates have ticked up slightly. The economy is on the upswing. Unemployment isn't quite as bad as it was 3 months ago. Money is flowing. Inflation is still under-reported, causing optimism. The weather is very nice. Typical slow season for pms is May-June.

There's all your good economic news. I get $50's at the bank when I used to get $20's and I just keep wondering, "where is all this money going?"

dpoole

<< <i>What metals need is some

NeWs!!

hopefully we can get some kind of serious threat or actual manifest disaster, or a real or manufactured CRiSiS to help these sleepy precious metals prices!! >>




What about global warming??? And asteroids and meteors flying around headed this way that haven't been spotted yet?!. And didn't you read about grizzly bears in Alaska that have been spotted using barnacled rocks as combs?? Tool-using carnivores, ready to move up the technology chain!! And what about Democrats, who are on the verge of getting nukes???!

How the he!! can you sleep at night??

TwoSides2aCoin

It's giving me the Blues, brothers. eh

edit because my images were just too big.

KUCH

<< <i>Housing is recovering and mortgage rates have ticked up slightly. The economy is on the upswing. Unemployment isn't quite as bad as it was 3 months ago. Money is flowing. Inflation is still under-reported, causing optimism. The weather is very nice. Typical slow season for pms is May-June.

There's all your good economic news. I get $50's at the bank when I used to get $20's and I just keep wondering, "where is all this money going?" >>



"Where is all this money going", well for starters, it's going to big Uncle Sam. My Uncle Sam, God love him, provides everything I need and I don't have to work. Yep, I'm one of 49% who pay nothing.

Thank you

piecesofme

<< What metals need is some

NeWs!!

hopefully we can get some kind of serious threat or actual manifest disaster, or a real or manufactured CRiSiS to help these sleepy precious metals prices!! >>

<<What about global warming??? And asteroids and meteors flying around headed this way that haven't been spotted yet?!. And didn't you read about grizzly bears in Alaska that have been spotted using barnacled rocks as combs?? Tool-using carnivores, ready to move up the technology chain!! And what about Democrats, who are on the verge of getting nukes???!

How the he!! can you sleep at night?? >>

More emphasis needs to be put on the Myan calender prediciting the end of the world in 2012...wait a minute, why would people buy metals if the end of the world is coming? Scratch that thought

yellowkid

I get $50's at the bank when I used to get $20's and I just keep wondering, "where is all this money going?" >>



The $50 is the new $20.......

Baley

I get $50's at the bank when I used to get $20's and I just keep wondering, "where is all this money going?" >>


Let me guess: You also now get thousands of dollars in your pay envelope, when you used to get hundreds? "Where is all this money coming from?"

jmski52

Let me guess: You also now get thousands of dollars in your pay envelope, when you used to get hundreds? "Where is all this money coming from?"

And to think..........that all this time I believed that the pay increase was due to my skill and experience! Either way, it won't matter when we all retire and have to depend on a fixed income from savings & investments. Just hope that your broker isn't calling you "muppet" behind your back.