Precious Metals Buying Guide.....2nd Edition
gecko109
Posts: 8,231 ✭
Some of you will recall a piece I did on this forum a couple of years ago about a "guide" for new buyers of precious metals. A few members stated that they thought it was very helpful to them. I have decided to do this supplemental guide as a courtesy for people on here who may want to learn something new about the precious metals market.
Chapter 1: What are my options when buying?
There are basically 4 metals we all think of when talking about precious metal. Those are, of course, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. The market share of gold and silver far outweigh that of the other two metals, but platinum and palladium also have places in a metals portfolio.
Gold:
Gold is a very "psychological" metal in that the majority of its demand stems from how the public perceives the metal itself. Jewelry and investment make up the two highest sectors of gold demand. For that reason, gold has a higher risk of a major correction in my opinion. If jewelry demand falls off due to hard economic climates, then a large portion of its demand falls off as well. And because it is also an investment metal, sometimes higher prices are justification for even higher prices....making gold more prone to finding itself in "bubble" territory. Gold has a real catch 22 built into it in that almost all the world's central banks hold large amounts of the metal. This is good in that it reinforces our idea that gold truly is money...if the largest banks and governments in the world feel its important enough to maintain significant reserves, then maybe I should too? However, with such large stockpiles of the metal.....possibly up to 25% of all the gold known to exist above ground....banks are in a position to possibly manipulate prices...and surely supply. And because part of the reason you are reading this is to avoid manipulation of government issued/controlled fiat by exchanging that for metals, it definately is a cause for at least some concern.
Silver:
Silver is an excellent metal in that its both "psychological" as well as "industrial". Since silver coins have been heavily used throughout the world as actual money for so much of mankind's history, we are probably mentally wired....as human beings....to always associate silver with money. In addition, almost every high tech industry REQUIRES the use of silver in manufacturing. There are many uses for silver from electronics to biotech...too many to list here, so I suggest a search to see for yourself. One more huge advantage of silver is that because it is heavily used in industry, and has an extremely low recovery rate silver reserves actually are in decline over time. Whereas gold experiences a steady increase (between 2-3% per year) of above ground stock, silver is having a tough time keeping up with demand in industries that "use it up". Also, there are no major stockpiles of silver metal in any central bank or government's vaults, so its far less likely to be manipulated than gold.
Platinum and Palladium:
Platinum and its close relative, palladium are a bit more tricky. While these metals are used in various industries, their primary application is in the automotive industry, and in emmisions control specifically. The main problem that I have with this is the gradual switch from traditional gas powered vehicles to low emmision/ zero emission alternatives. While this transformation wont happen overnight, there is no denying that more and more electric powered vehicles will be introduced and put into service as time marches on. Even though platinum is about 30 times as rare as gold, if the major sector of demand drops off, and no significant new technology requires the use of these metals, long term pt and pd prospects are probably poor.
Chapter 2: So now that im familiar with the different metals, what form should I buy them in?
The vast majority of physical bullion comes in just two forms.....government issued coins, and privately minted bars or rounds. These two choices cover probably 99% or better of all bullion available for sale. Perhaps less than 1% comes in the form of raw metals such as gold or platinum nuggets. So which are "better", government issued, or privately issued items? In my experience, both classes have a place in a metals portfolio. Personally, I prefer my gold in the form of U.S. eagles. The major advantages of eagles are the tough composition (91.67%) which allows the coins to be handled without too much concern for scratching them. I could jiggle a handfull of eagles in my hand with no worries about minute hairlines or scratches. But fo the same with Canada maple leafs and the reults may vary. I also like the uniformity and divisibility of government issued coins......almost all are made in fractions of an ounce.....rather than grams which can confuse people. There is nothing wrong with a Credit Suisse 5 gram gold bar, and in fact if you like variety, I recommend adding some to your pile. Just be aware that when totaling your stockpile, you will want to express your overall amount in troy ounces.....and bars made in gram increments will need to be converted to troy ounces, which contain 31.103 grams.
Silver 1oz and 5oz bars from respected and recognized manufacturers are my preffered method of adding silver to my stack. They are easy to store, and inventory. They come already refined to .999 pure, so there is no conversion factor or math to do when totaling up your stack. Another option for silver is U.S. pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and halves. This is commonly reffered to as "U.S. junk silver" in that it has little to zero numismatic value above that of its bullion value. The nice thing about this form of silver is that its divisible down to about 1/14th of an ounce. That is approximately what 1 silver dime contains in actual silver metal. This form is usually readily available, and trades close to melt value. An easy calculation to determine the value of 90% junk at any time is to multiply current silver spot price by .715. This will give you the value of a given coin times its face value. So with silver at $33, we would take 33 x .715 to give us a number of 23.6. If we have a silver quarter, then we multiply .25 (25 cents) by 23.6 to give us a value of $5.90. One small advantage of this form is that it establishes a "floor" value. While a U.S. quarter from 1964 will always be worth at least 25 cents, a 1oz Engelhard silver bar could theoretically be worth absolutely nothing at some point in the future. As unlikely as that sounds, its still worth noting.....for amusement purposes if nothing else.
Platinum and palladium is available in both government and private form.....just like gold and silver, although not as readily available, and with fewer options.
Chapter 3: Where do I buy this stuff?
For those who live in large metro areas, there are bound to be a few coin shops in your vicinity. Whether or not those shops "play fair" is something you will need to learn. A great tool to understand what a particular piece of bullion is worth is to use Ebay's completed listings feature. If your local shop has Sunshine Mint 10 oz silver bars in its case at $420 each, and you see that 5 of them closed on ebay in the past 2 days at $330-$360 then you know that your dealer is high. Ebay is an excellent way to purchase metals, just be sure to check the seller's status. The 1st thing I do is look at the feedback %. I try to avoid anyone lower than 99%. Next is to look at his current items for sale.....see if the seller's main focus is bullion related items. Then check his most recent sales. If the guy has sold nothing but $5 and $10 used auto parts for the past few transactions, and now has a 1oz gold eagle for sale, I might avoid that guy. If the seller has no recent feedback (within 60-90 days) but now has $30,000 worth of bullion listed, then I dont care if he has 100% feedback....im avoiding that seller completely.
There are also major online dealers like Tulving, Apmex, and Gainsville to name a few. This is a safe way to purchase bullion. Most online dealers require bank wires or bank checks, and they lock in prices. This means that once you agree to the deal, you are obligated to remit payment and complete the deal. If spot goes down before you make it to your bank....too bad. If spot goes way up, you will still get your metals. If you make a deal, stand by your word.....integrity is a HUGE part of this industry!
Finally, avoid any newspaper or TV ads promoting bullion sales. This goes for the shop at home type of channels as well. Almost anything you will see for sale on TV can be bought much cheaper on Ebay or at your local dealer. The BST section on these forums has been a success for the most part for me, but others have had poor experiences. Proceed there with caution and common sense. Flea markets can be a great place to find bullion......IF you know exactly what you are doing. Buying a few fakes can end up being a very costly mistake!
Chapter 1: What are my options when buying?
There are basically 4 metals we all think of when talking about precious metal. Those are, of course, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. The market share of gold and silver far outweigh that of the other two metals, but platinum and palladium also have places in a metals portfolio.
Gold:
Gold is a very "psychological" metal in that the majority of its demand stems from how the public perceives the metal itself. Jewelry and investment make up the two highest sectors of gold demand. For that reason, gold has a higher risk of a major correction in my opinion. If jewelry demand falls off due to hard economic climates, then a large portion of its demand falls off as well. And because it is also an investment metal, sometimes higher prices are justification for even higher prices....making gold more prone to finding itself in "bubble" territory. Gold has a real catch 22 built into it in that almost all the world's central banks hold large amounts of the metal. This is good in that it reinforces our idea that gold truly is money...if the largest banks and governments in the world feel its important enough to maintain significant reserves, then maybe I should too? However, with such large stockpiles of the metal.....possibly up to 25% of all the gold known to exist above ground....banks are in a position to possibly manipulate prices...and surely supply. And because part of the reason you are reading this is to avoid manipulation of government issued/controlled fiat by exchanging that for metals, it definately is a cause for at least some concern.
Silver:
Silver is an excellent metal in that its both "psychological" as well as "industrial". Since silver coins have been heavily used throughout the world as actual money for so much of mankind's history, we are probably mentally wired....as human beings....to always associate silver with money. In addition, almost every high tech industry REQUIRES the use of silver in manufacturing. There are many uses for silver from electronics to biotech...too many to list here, so I suggest a search to see for yourself. One more huge advantage of silver is that because it is heavily used in industry, and has an extremely low recovery rate silver reserves actually are in decline over time. Whereas gold experiences a steady increase (between 2-3% per year) of above ground stock, silver is having a tough time keeping up with demand in industries that "use it up". Also, there are no major stockpiles of silver metal in any central bank or government's vaults, so its far less likely to be manipulated than gold.
Platinum and Palladium:
Platinum and its close relative, palladium are a bit more tricky. While these metals are used in various industries, their primary application is in the automotive industry, and in emmisions control specifically. The main problem that I have with this is the gradual switch from traditional gas powered vehicles to low emmision/ zero emission alternatives. While this transformation wont happen overnight, there is no denying that more and more electric powered vehicles will be introduced and put into service as time marches on. Even though platinum is about 30 times as rare as gold, if the major sector of demand drops off, and no significant new technology requires the use of these metals, long term pt and pd prospects are probably poor.
Chapter 2: So now that im familiar with the different metals, what form should I buy them in?
The vast majority of physical bullion comes in just two forms.....government issued coins, and privately minted bars or rounds. These two choices cover probably 99% or better of all bullion available for sale. Perhaps less than 1% comes in the form of raw metals such as gold or platinum nuggets. So which are "better", government issued, or privately issued items? In my experience, both classes have a place in a metals portfolio. Personally, I prefer my gold in the form of U.S. eagles. The major advantages of eagles are the tough composition (91.67%) which allows the coins to be handled without too much concern for scratching them. I could jiggle a handfull of eagles in my hand with no worries about minute hairlines or scratches. But fo the same with Canada maple leafs and the reults may vary. I also like the uniformity and divisibility of government issued coins......almost all are made in fractions of an ounce.....rather than grams which can confuse people. There is nothing wrong with a Credit Suisse 5 gram gold bar, and in fact if you like variety, I recommend adding some to your pile. Just be aware that when totaling your stockpile, you will want to express your overall amount in troy ounces.....and bars made in gram increments will need to be converted to troy ounces, which contain 31.103 grams.
Silver 1oz and 5oz bars from respected and recognized manufacturers are my preffered method of adding silver to my stack. They are easy to store, and inventory. They come already refined to .999 pure, so there is no conversion factor or math to do when totaling up your stack. Another option for silver is U.S. pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and halves. This is commonly reffered to as "U.S. junk silver" in that it has little to zero numismatic value above that of its bullion value. The nice thing about this form of silver is that its divisible down to about 1/14th of an ounce. That is approximately what 1 silver dime contains in actual silver metal. This form is usually readily available, and trades close to melt value. An easy calculation to determine the value of 90% junk at any time is to multiply current silver spot price by .715. This will give you the value of a given coin times its face value. So with silver at $33, we would take 33 x .715 to give us a number of 23.6. If we have a silver quarter, then we multiply .25 (25 cents) by 23.6 to give us a value of $5.90. One small advantage of this form is that it establishes a "floor" value. While a U.S. quarter from 1964 will always be worth at least 25 cents, a 1oz Engelhard silver bar could theoretically be worth absolutely nothing at some point in the future. As unlikely as that sounds, its still worth noting.....for amusement purposes if nothing else.
Platinum and palladium is available in both government and private form.....just like gold and silver, although not as readily available, and with fewer options.
Chapter 3: Where do I buy this stuff?
For those who live in large metro areas, there are bound to be a few coin shops in your vicinity. Whether or not those shops "play fair" is something you will need to learn. A great tool to understand what a particular piece of bullion is worth is to use Ebay's completed listings feature. If your local shop has Sunshine Mint 10 oz silver bars in its case at $420 each, and you see that 5 of them closed on ebay in the past 2 days at $330-$360 then you know that your dealer is high. Ebay is an excellent way to purchase metals, just be sure to check the seller's status. The 1st thing I do is look at the feedback %. I try to avoid anyone lower than 99%. Next is to look at his current items for sale.....see if the seller's main focus is bullion related items. Then check his most recent sales. If the guy has sold nothing but $5 and $10 used auto parts for the past few transactions, and now has a 1oz gold eagle for sale, I might avoid that guy. If the seller has no recent feedback (within 60-90 days) but now has $30,000 worth of bullion listed, then I dont care if he has 100% feedback....im avoiding that seller completely.
There are also major online dealers like Tulving, Apmex, and Gainsville to name a few. This is a safe way to purchase bullion. Most online dealers require bank wires or bank checks, and they lock in prices. This means that once you agree to the deal, you are obligated to remit payment and complete the deal. If spot goes down before you make it to your bank....too bad. If spot goes way up, you will still get your metals. If you make a deal, stand by your word.....integrity is a HUGE part of this industry!
Finally, avoid any newspaper or TV ads promoting bullion sales. This goes for the shop at home type of channels as well. Almost anything you will see for sale on TV can be bought much cheaper on Ebay or at your local dealer. The BST section on these forums has been a success for the most part for me, but others have had poor experiences. Proceed there with caution and common sense. Flea markets can be a great place to find bullion......IF you know exactly what you are doing. Buying a few fakes can end up being a very costly mistake!
0
Comments
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Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
1. Is this a good time to buy Silver/Gold? I have heard silver more than gold but would like some opinions.
2. Why/Why not
3. Negotiations - For example, if silver is at $34 and someone offers $30 for it, is this "in bad taste" or ok....What if the original owner bought it for less, they would still make a profit, I come from an autograph world where anything is negotiable and most items can be had for much less than what someone paid for it originally. I know PM's are different because they have a specific value.
4. SPOT- As I type, Silver is at $33.38, this is spot correct? Anything over that is SPOT - plus profit/etc.?
5. Would you rather buy - (10) silver/gold 1oz coins or (1) 10 oz silver/gold coin?
Thanks again,
I have been reading this side of the boards for a few months and am learning a great deal from everyone.
Jim
Currency Wants: Any note with serial number 00000731
Nice summary!
Jim,
I’ll throw in my $0.02 here. I’m sure other readers may have differing ideas on some of your questions.
1 & 2 – Is this a good time to buy silver and gold? To me, it always is a good time. I am of the dollar cost average (DCA) crowd. I am not smart enough to time the tops and bottoms of runs, so I buy a little all the time as opposed to buying one big chunk when I ‘think’ the market has reached a (short-term) bottom.
My preference between silver and gold changes occasionally. If I look into a dealer’s case and see some metal that I like and is fairly priced, I will go for it. Doesn’t matter if it’s gold or silver.
3 – You will always get lowball offers, and most here do not care what the original price was. There are many here who are still holding onto metals from the $5-6 silver and $400 gold range, but don’t expect any of them to cut you a huge break when they are selling. Due to the liquidity, they don’t have to. If you review the BST and PM threads from the past week or so, you will see people offering a wide variety of prices; from buying 90% silver at 10% back of melt, to offering bars for sale at 10-15% over melt.
Much of the premium for bars and rounds (either silver or gold) depends on the manufacturer. When you get into names like Engelhard or Johnson Matthey (in either metal), you will pay a higher premium than you would with Silvertowne or APMEX, due to the (perceived) higher quality and the fact that both companies stopped making bars / rounds about 25+ years ago. There are several of us who enjoy collecting old styles that pay 2x or 3x spot due to scarcity of a particular design.
4 – Yes, most everything you see from a price standpoint will be derived from the current spot price. For 90%, many use the multiplication factor of 0.715 to determine a ‘melt’ value. The melt value is simply the spot price times the weight of the object in question. This gives you an indication of the value of the metal if you were to ‘melt it’ and sell it to another. ASEs may go for spot +$3 or $4. Typically, the larger the weight of the individual object, the lower the premium will be. For example, a group of 1 oz Engelhard bars may run around spot +$3-4, while a 100 oz Engelhard may only cost spot +$1 or so.
5 – This is mainly a personal preference and I’m sure you will get answers all over the map. Buying 10x1 oz vs 1x10 oz will cost you more due to the associated premiums, but you will typically retain those premiums when it is time to sell. Another thing to consider is the total cost when trying to sell; many people could afford a single 1 oz gold bar at $1750 or so, but not everybody would be able to pay $17,500 for a 10 oz gold bar. If those funds are ever needed for an emergency or other short notice, you may have a problem selling it quickly. Yes, you could always sell it to APMEX or another large dealer, but by the time you ship it and receive the check in return.
Hope this helps.
Like any investor or collector, the approaches are as varied as the individual...
On a side note, there may be tax laws written by your state to discourage buying PMs in smaller quantities. In Texas, if your purchase is under $1000, you have to pay 8.25% sales tax. Some online site such as provident metals are based in Texas and MUST charge you the extra 8% for applicable purchases. Although there are a number of sites around the nation you could use, pay attention to the premiums and 'extras' you have to pay such as shipping and insurance. It can really increase the total cost of the coins. Although it may only be an extra 3% here or 5% there (excluding sales tax) if you make your purchases in small amount every paycheck, it does raise your effective cost of the coins and you miss out on what would be 'free' coins at the end of the year with the money you would have saved otherwise.
Of course this comes from a guy who is very fee adverse when it comes to investing... ;-)
BSTs with: Coll3ctor, gsa1fan, mkman123, ajbauman, tydye, piecesofme, pursuitofliberty
Travelog - 20in20travels.com
And to Jim, there's no time like the present to invest.
I'd start with growth stocks myself, and then add silver and gold to the mix.