Those are a compilation of 7 different auctions in January of this year. I am by no means an expert on these cars but I can remember sitting with two of my friends in the June 2010 Mecum Bloomington gold auction in St. Charles where almost no cars sold. One of those guys owns two Chevy dealerships and the other has 8 figures in the bank...either one could afford any car in the auction, both own small museums and neither was bidding in JUNE 2010. They are both in the market now. Bobby is selling cars and Tommy opened a cement plant in Lima to poor the foundation for Ford at their new plant expansion. AND as a side note...I am selling a lot of stuff to Michigan people so some of Michigan is starting to work enough to have money for their toys. I know one thing for sure...there is a lot of pent up demand in the auto business. Both, Old car restorations and new go to work cars .
My point is.......while in many areas...the economy suks...it is starting to move off dead center. A company will frequently stress their employees(with OT and so unemployment #'s stay high) until they start hiring new people...and some companies are hiring.
IMHO, greenspan waited too long to raise rates after the 2000-01 downturn...and I suspect that was a large contributing factor to easy money mortgages and the ballon in RE prices. Hopefully Uncle Ben learned from this, even though the FED has said..a couple of more years of low rates. Actually, really doesn't make any difference how much rates are, few can borrow.
Streeter, I can buy all that. Maybe my views are tainted by what I see in the Northeast/New England where businesses still seem to be contracting, closing, or leaving the region. I remember the bottom of the last car cycle well in summer 1996 and there were some sharp people starting to scarf up hemi and winged/aero cars. That previous car market cycle took about 6-7 yrs to bottom and coincided well with the housing market. Could this one have now bottomed after only 4 yrs or is this just an interim rebound caused by liquidity injections. Certainly a lot more money has been dumped into financial markets in the past 6-9 months than in quite some time. The fact that M2 increased by nearly 10% in 2011 probably helped to push people back into the buying mode. And if some of that 200% increase in M1 in the past 4 yrs is starting to leak into the economy that's bullish as well. Some of that $12-$20 TRILL in slush money that was dumped by the FED/Treasury from 2007-2011 has to eventually trickle down to the economy in general. A TRILL here, a TRILL there, eventually some gets spent on things other than debt servicing.
NU, no matter how the banks try to handle the impending overflow of pent up mortgage foreclosures it will be a drag on prices. The Phoenix area can certainly be booming relative to other locations.
roadrunner >>
The area is not booming but it does appear to be somewhat stabilized, but i would think that if another round of forclosures hit the area that it might not be sustainable in regards to maintaining the current median pricing. I believe the word is tepidly cautious, but a huge amount of sfh have changed hands from the financially weaker to the stronger over the past 3 years.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
<< <i>No offense, derryb, but if you read what the editorial says, you have to wonder about it's motives. First he cherrypicks articles that point to the conclusion he wants. Denounces any other view (the MSM boogeyman, CNBC) and really says nothing of substance. And you offer it up for, what? To convince us to run for cover? >>
I never take offense on the boards and I respect opinions that differ from mine. Offered up for your reading pleasure. Hopefully you will see the warning.
Per the writer: "These articles are not written by a bunch of angry uneducated bloggers but by money managers, investors and financial writers. All are people who got it right leading up to the meltdown of 2008, and my bet is they are right again. The mainstream media (MSM) told you after the 2008 crash that “nobody saw that coming,” which is a bold faced lie that will not work again."
You will notice the highly respected Jim Quinn provides one of the opinions. Differing opinions are what help the thinker to form his own. >>
Perhaps take a different perspective and look at the employment rate. It's much more illuminating as to the abject failure current policy.
Right now I make 6 parts for GM subsidaries. And about 100 aftermarket parts for GM cars. I've raised some of my aftermarket prices for the first time in 5 years, some by 20%. And still selling my output.
January was the first time in 4+ years we made a profit. And I wrote myself a check. It feels good. This is February, about a month before sales normally used to pick up in the last few years.
We just sold a few things to the Aussies. The Aussies and KIWIS are crawling the west coast and buying up whatever they can and loading containers. Used cars, new cars, trailers, industrial machinery, jet skis, Harleys......and it is cheaper for them to buy Chinese junk here and resend it to down under that to directly import from China. I can't figure that out at all. The cheap dollar is helping drive the west coast economy.
We shipped several 40' containers to down under the last few months. Every box has at least $100,000 of stuff in it. That is money spent here and used by Americans to do what they want. If you want to see how wild prices are in New Zealand...google- TRADE ME---and see how much those nut jobs get for stuff. In Australia----bananas are about $2.00 lb. I picked up a friend/customer at LAX and he has a 40' Winnabago parked in my yard. We went shopping, he saw bananas for 49cents/lb and ate two on the spot. He bought two ice chests for $12 and uses them for suitcases for stuff to go back. I axed him..."what's up?". Chuck, these ice chests are $60 in Melbourne. Sydney is the most expensive city in the world...170% of NYC.....the Aussies have enough money to buy the west coast of America right now. I'll sell my share a little at a time.
<< <i>Right now I make 6 parts for GM subsidaries. And about 100 aftermarket parts for GM cars. I've raised some of my aftermarket prices for the first time in 5 years, some by 20%. And still selling my output.
January was the first time in 4+ years we made a profit. And I wrote myself a check. It feels good. This is February, about a month before sales normally used to pick up in the last few years.
We just sold a few things to the Aussies. The Aussies and KIWIS are crawling the west coast and buying up whatever they can and loading containers. Used cars, new cars, trailers, industrial machinery, jet skis, Harleys......and it is cheaper for them to buy Chinese junk here and resend it to down under that to directly import from China. I can't figure that out at all. The cheap dollar is helping drive the west coast economy.
We shipped several 40' containers to down under the last few months. Every box has at least $100,000 of stuff in it. That is money spent here and used by Americans to do what they want. If you want to see how wild prices are in New Zealand...google- TRADE ME---and see how much those nut jobs get for stuff. In Australia----bananas are about $2.00 lb. I picked up a friend/customer at LAX and he has a 40' Winnabago parked in my yard. We went shopping, he saw bananas for 49cents/lb and ate two on the spot. He bought two ice chests for $12 and uses them for suitcases for stuff to go back. I axed him..."what's up?". Chuck, these ice chests are $60 in Melbourne. Sydney is the most expensive city in the world...170% of NYC.....the Aussies have enough money to buy the west coast of America right now. I'll sell my share a little at a time. >>
Streeter, take a little time and read Hoisington managements latest quarterly report on their site. They have been calling it right for 20 years or more and they are most probably correct this time around also. If you would like you can go back and read their previous quarterly reports for verification. Link to Hoisington Management Quarterly Review (CLICK ON ECONOMIC OVERVIEW)
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
He uses terms like ....CONCOMITANTLY EXPECTATIONS....
if I have to look up words or phrases like that..where the author is trying to make a point. PFFFFFFFFFFFFT.
He gets paid by the word. What did he say? The Govt is too big and suking the life out of the private sector and this will continue to cause problems.....
Go tell that to DC. They think Govt is the economy. How many of the 'leaders' in Congress have said that Govt spending will pull us out of this recession? MANY of them. None have done anything in the private sector. The only thing Govt discretionary spending does is enable inefficient enterprises to continue to breath.
Most recessions have a cleansing effect on the economy. Companies come and go, people are humbled, new forces emerge. I'm not so sure we have learned many lessons in this recession. The pigs are still feeding at the trough.
rising interest rates may push those on the buying fence (and boost short term sales) but that will be short lived.
Real estate is still in the beginning of a 20 year Japan-like sufferage; yes, the outlook is gloomy. Even with all of the FED intervention real estate continues to show no real promise.
My pessimistic economic outlook will take much more than the past or next six months to play out.
Baley, your RE, DJIA, gold and silver chart is great picture of what FED policy has been pushing on and what it has been pulling on. Push-pull economics.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
gold still looks good (nice profit) on the 10 year chart, all the market participants with their aggregate buy/sell/hold decisions have and will have more impact than just the Fed, IMO (although they do, of course, interact)
Interesting that since the market bottom 3/9/2009, they're all up really well, but gold has the worst performance of the 4 up thirty-some percent, and real estate (average) has done best, up 150+%, with the stock market merely doubling in that time.
Gold actually beginning to look like a decent relative value again
<< <i>Generally, real estate will bottom when gold is peaking as it balances out all the current debt. I doubt that will happen any sooner than 2015-2017. . >>
Gah. I wish you were right! I just had to pay 5k over asking price to even get my offer looked at. Wish it were still a buyers market!
<< <i>Gah. I wish you were right! I just had to pay 5k over asking price to even get my offer looked at. Wish it were still a buyers market! >>
Jumping bids over ask when rates are rising is a signal of a topping, not a bottoming. And a low top it is. Too much real estate and too few qualified buyers.
Comments
My point is.......while in many areas...the economy suks...it is starting to move off dead center. A company will frequently stress their employees(with OT and so unemployment #'s stay high) until they start hiring new people...and some companies are hiring.
IMHO, greenspan waited too long to raise rates after the 2000-01 downturn...and I suspect that was a large contributing factor to easy money mortgages and the ballon in RE prices. Hopefully Uncle Ben learned from this, even though the FED has said..a couple of more years of low rates. Actually, really doesn't make any difference how much rates are, few can borrow.
Streeter, I can buy all that. Maybe my views are tainted by what I see in the Northeast/New England where businesses still seem to be contracting, closing, or leaving the region.
I remember the bottom of the last car cycle well in summer 1996 and there were some sharp people starting to scarf up hemi and winged/aero cars. That previous car market cycle took about 6-7 yrs to bottom and coincided well with the housing market. Could this one have now bottomed after only 4 yrs or is this just an interim rebound caused by liquidity injections. Certainly a lot more money has been dumped into financial markets in the past 6-9 months than in quite some time. The fact that M2 increased by nearly 10% in 2011 probably helped to push people back into the buying mode. And if some of that 200% increase in M1 in the past 4 yrs is starting to leak into the economy that's bullish as well. Some of that $12-$20 TRILL in slush money that was dumped by the FED/Treasury from 2007-2011 has to eventually trickle down to the economy in general. A TRILL here, a TRILL there, eventually some gets spent on things other than debt servicing.
<< <i>
NU, no matter how the banks try to handle the impending overflow of pent up mortgage foreclosures it will be a drag on prices. The Phoenix area can certainly be booming relative to
other locations.
roadrunner >>
The area is not booming but it does appear to be somewhat stabilized, but i would think that if another round of forclosures hit the area that it might not be sustainable in regards to maintaining the current median pricing. I believe the word is tepidly cautious, but a huge amount of sfh have changed hands from the financially weaker to the stronger
over the past 3 years.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>No offense, derryb, but if you read what the editorial says, you have to wonder about it's motives. First he cherrypicks articles that point to the conclusion he wants. Denounces any other view (the MSM boogeyman, CNBC) and really says nothing of substance. And you offer it up for, what? To convince us to run for cover? >>
I never take offense on the boards and I respect opinions that differ from mine. Offered up for your reading pleasure. Hopefully you will see the warning.
Per the writer: "These articles are not written by a bunch of angry uneducated bloggers but by money managers, investors and financial writers. All are people who got it right leading up to the meltdown of 2008, and my bet is they are right again. The mainstream media (MSM) told you after the 2008 crash that “nobody saw that coming,” which is a bold faced lie that will not work again."
You will notice the highly respected Jim Quinn provides one of the opinions. Differing opinions are what help the thinker to form his own. >>
Perhaps take a different perspective and look at the employment rate. It's much more illuminating as to the abject failure current policy.
January was the first time in 4+ years we made a profit. And I wrote myself a check. It feels good. This is February, about a month before sales normally used to pick up in the last few years.
We just sold a few things to the Aussies. The Aussies and KIWIS are crawling the west coast and buying up whatever they can and loading containers. Used cars, new cars, trailers, industrial machinery, jet skis, Harleys......and it is cheaper for them to buy Chinese junk here and resend it to down under that to directly import from China. I can't figure that out at all. The cheap dollar is helping drive the west coast economy.
We shipped several 40' containers to down under the last few months. Every box has at least $100,000 of stuff in it. That is money spent here and used by Americans to do what they want. If you want to see how wild prices are in New Zealand...google- TRADE ME---and see how much those nut jobs get for stuff. In Australia----bananas are about $2.00 lb. I picked up a friend/customer at LAX and he has a 40' Winnabago parked in my yard. We went shopping, he saw bananas for 49cents/lb and ate two on the spot. He bought two ice chests for $12 and uses them for suitcases for stuff to go back. I axed him..."what's up?". Chuck, these ice chests are $60 in Melbourne. Sydney is the most expensive city in the world...170% of NYC.....the Aussies have enough money to buy the west coast of America right now. I'll sell my share a little at a time.
<< <i>Right now I make 6 parts for GM subsidaries. And about 100 aftermarket parts for GM cars. I've raised some of my aftermarket prices for the first time in 5 years, some by 20%. And still selling my output.
January was the first time in 4+ years we made a profit. And I wrote myself a check. It feels good. This is February, about a month before sales normally used to pick up in the last few years.
We just sold a few things to the Aussies. The Aussies and KIWIS are crawling the west coast and buying up whatever they can and loading containers. Used cars, new cars, trailers, industrial machinery, jet skis, Harleys......and it is cheaper for them to buy Chinese junk here and resend it to down under that to directly import from China. I can't figure that out at all. The cheap dollar is helping drive the west coast economy.
We shipped several 40' containers to down under the last few months. Every box has at least $100,000 of stuff in it. That is money spent here and used by Americans to do what they want. If you want to see how wild prices are in New Zealand...google- TRADE ME---and see how much those nut jobs get for stuff. In Australia----bananas are about $2.00 lb. I picked up a friend/customer at LAX and he has a 40' Winnabago parked in my yard. We went shopping, he saw bananas for 49cents/lb and ate two on the spot. He bought two ice chests for $12 and uses them for suitcases for stuff to go back. I axed him..."what's up?". Chuck, these ice chests are $60 in Melbourne. Sydney is the most expensive city in the world...170% of NYC.....the Aussies have enough money to buy the west coast of America right now. I'll sell my share a little at a time. >>
Streeter, take a little time and read Hoisington managements latest quarterly report on their site. They have been calling it right for 20 years or more and they are most probably
correct this time around also. If you would like you can go back and read their previous quarterly reports for verification. Link to Hoisington Management Quarterly Review (CLICK ON ECONOMIC OVERVIEW)
He uses terms like ....CONCOMITANTLY EXPECTATIONS....
if I have to look up words or phrases like that..where the author is trying to make a point. PFFFFFFFFFFFFT.
He gets paid by the word. What did he say?
The Govt is too big and suking the life out of the private sector and this will continue to cause problems.....
Go tell that to DC. They think Govt is the economy. How many of the 'leaders' in Congress have said that Govt spending will pull us out of this recession? MANY of them. None have done anything in the private sector. The only thing Govt discretionary spending does is enable inefficient enterprises to continue to breath.
Most recessions have a cleansing effect on the economy. Companies come and go, people are humbled, new forces emerge. I'm not so sure we have learned many lessons in this recession. The pigs are still feeding at the trough.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444506004577617120214934362.html
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Yup, real estate going down forever. Not exactly.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444506004577617120214934362.html >>
Do you get a free years subscription for getting all of us to subscribe to WSJ or just a per subscription percent?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Real estate is still in the beginning of a 20 year Japan-like sufferage; yes, the outlook is gloomy. Even with all of the FED intervention real estate continues to show no real promise.
My pessimistic economic outlook will take much more than the past or next six months to play out.
Baley, your RE, DJIA, gold and silver chart is great picture of what FED policy has been pushing on and what it has been pulling on. Push-pull economics.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
10 year chart
gold still looks good (nice profit) on the 10 year chart, all the market participants with their aggregate buy/sell/hold decisions have and will have more impact than just the Fed, IMO
(although they do, of course, interact)
Interesting that since the market bottom 3/9/2009, they're all up really well, but gold has the worst performance of the 4 up thirty-some percent, and real estate (average) has done best, up 150+%,
with the stock market merely doubling in that time.
Gold actually beginning to look like a decent relative value again
Take it all the way back to 2000 to see several distinct bubbles form and PoP!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Our real estate is rockin'. Bottomed a year ago or more? >>
Indeed. A growing population needs more housing, not more gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Generally, real estate will bottom when gold is peaking as it balances out all the current debt. I doubt that will happen any sooner than 2015-2017. . >>
Gah. I wish you were right! I just had to pay 5k over asking price to even get my offer looked at. Wish it were still a buyers market!
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
<< <i>Gah. I wish you were right! I just had to pay 5k over asking price to even get my offer looked at. Wish it were still a buyers market! >>
Jumping bids over ask when rates are rising is a signal of a topping, not a bottoming. And a low top it is. Too much real estate and too few qualified buyers.