So What do Y'all think of the FaceBook deal??...

OldEastside · February 2, 2012 12:38PM

Any Future in It? is it better than Bank interest? ect. ect.

Steve

Justacommeman · February 2, 2012 12:47PM

Sadly I have never been on Facebook. I must suck. Zero interest. Someone, somewhere right now is creating "the new Facebook" in their mom's basement. Love it. MJ

derryb · February 2, 2012 1:04PM

Think black swan, like in one event such as a spreading virus or a major hacking, and stock goes down the tube.

RedTiger · February 2, 2012 1:20PM

It is going to be volatile. As far as fundamental valuation, it is fully priced, but that doesn't mean it can't double from the IPO price. If a person can get an allotment, I'd say go for it and try to flip it after the lock out date. That said, with a market cap of $100 billion at launch (only $5 billion is being floated), and 800 million users already registered, that doesn't leave that much room for big time growth. To give some perspective, the most valuable U.S. companies are Apple and Exxon at around $450 billion each. So even a very optimistic view of Facebook becoming the most valuable U.S. company that means 500% of the IPO pricing, but how long would it take to support that valuation? There are only 7 billion humans and 80% of them aren't worth a darn to advertisers, so where does the growth in users come from when you already have 800 million? Google is already targeting Facebook. The Chinese have their own versions of social networking.

scotty1419 · February 2, 2012 7:37PM

I kind of see it like Chipotle (plenty of differences of course) - a reasonably good company that has crazy interest and goes to crazy stock prices.

I think there's going to be a lot of speculative buying.

DrBuster · February 2, 2012 9:29PM

I still don't see the fascination with McDs burritos, err, Chipotle. I'm on facebook all the time though, wouldn't touch the stock other than a pick & flip.

KUCH · February 2, 2012 9:31PM

At $29-$33 a share, I'm a buyer.

keepdachange · February 2, 2012 9:35PM

What is this "Facebook" you speak of?

indiananationals · February 2, 2012 9:48PM

anyone have any idea of what kind of price we will be looking at

gsa1fan · February 2, 2012 10:00PM

I'm buy in AM sell in PM

erickso1 · February 2, 2012 10:00PM

Had a Myspace, got rid of a Myspace. Had a Facebook, got rid of it when the add friend list got out of control.

As for it's stock/biz model? Agree w/ Redtiger. Volatility will be the name of the game until they either establish themselves w/ growing ad revenues like Google, or goes more in line w/ Linkedin or Groupon.

Other then that, I'm not adding it.

RedTiger · February 2, 2012 10:38PM

<< anyone have any idea of what kind of price we will be looking at >>

The underwriters can pick any stock price they want. The bigger picture, the price for the entire business, the revenues, the earnings, the growth potential are the more relevant numbers. With all that, my WAG for price is $100. That's about where Google went ($85). The IPO will certainly be oversubscribed with only $5 billion of the $100b being floated.

slinc · February 2, 2012 10:58PM

Signing up for facebook was a mistake I didn't make. I could hear my wife in my head, Who is that woman on your facebook? But thats just a girl I knew in high school 20 some years ago, Mmm yeah right you trying to kindle up an old flame? And so on and so forth. As for the stock it seems to be coming out with such a bang I'd guess it's fully priced from the beginning.

secondrepublic · February 2, 2012 11:15PM

Facebook's total revenue last year was about $4 billion... compare that to ExxonMobil which had revenue of $486 billion last year. Not even comparable as a money generator. Facebook is great to use, but I don't see how they can generate enough revenue to justify a market cap of $100 billion. Facebook's revenue is mostly from advertising. Total U.S. advertising spending on all media, TV, radio, etc. is $188 billion. I don't see any remotely plausible circumstance in which Facebook can capture more than 5 or 10% of that amount.

Limiting the initial offering to 5% of the company is just a means to inflate the value of the other 95%. Everyone will be scrambling to get the 5%. If they were more confident about its value they would float a much bigger piece of it.

derryb · February 2, 2012 11:42PM

I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy.

ttown · February 2, 2012 11:50PM

They had a lot about this IPO on CNBC last night. They ask one of their experts and she survey 100 college students about facebook and all said they've move on from that long ago.....it's so last week. Sounds like another dot com type stock to lose your money in to me. A lot of people are starting to abandon these social network, seems you joke about something and homeland security has shown up at some peoples houses. Even opinions out of the norm seem to get you in trouble for some reason now days...........

Baley · February 3, 2012 12:32AM

I'd never buy into such a valuation.. and have missed many many huge opportunities (AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, the list goes on)

have also dodged many many bullets. I prefer to try to catch such companies before they're household names, have landed QCOM, BIIB, ILMN, others very early in their runs and held on

have also been shot dead on a few positions, NGEN, AMCC, etc

roadrunner · February 3, 2012 12:44AM

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

I would agree...and probably why I won't ever become registered on FB.

streeter · February 3, 2012 12:48AM

I like companys with assets I can see and touch and understand.

Are angry birds assets? Is farmville an asset? The're an asset for some people but not me.

Apple is 'worth' 450B only as long as they can continue to develop and market new products to an ever increasingly monetarily challenged consumer. I'm waiting for Apl to drop off the cliff. I may have a wait but it will happen, just like gold in 80 or housing in 07.

I bought a droid for $230 that is 90% of the iphone. This restructuring/recession is at least another 5 years and I don't think Apl can last that long with picking the consumers pocket.

JMHO

edit: The worlds govts don't have to collect data.....google and facebook are doing it for them.

DrBuster · February 3, 2012 12:57AM

<< They had a lot about this IPO on CNBC last night. They ask one of their experts and she survey 100 college students about facebook and all said they've move on from that long ago.....it's so last week. Sounds like another dot com type stock to lose your money in to me. A lot of people are starting to abandon these social network, seems you joke about something and homeland security has shown up at some peoples houses. Even opinions out of the norm seem to get you in trouble for some reason now days........... >>

Facebook is way past college crowds as the main user base and has been for a while. It's folks post-college that use it, seems to me anyway.

ex: I use it as a public/marketing place for my art portfolio. Have gotten a lot of sales from it and the word of mouth, so have a bunch of my artist colleagues. Eyes on pieces that would otherwise need a gallery show or a crappy etsy site.

Business owner friends of mine use it, free marketing/advertising when done right with groups/likes.

derryb · February 3, 2012 1:11AM

When a company with this much market share goes public, it is usually because the owners see a need to cash in now and not later. I propose FB unpublished research shows a declining marketshare in the future.

ricko · February 3, 2012 1:25AM

I think derryb may have hit the nail on the head... seems strange to be doing this now, has to be a reason. Cheers, RickO

streeter · February 3, 2012 1:38AM

Doesn't Goldman Sachs hold a significant position in FB?

Whose the lead underwriter?

johnny9434 · February 3, 2012 2:13AM

i think face book will be another one that will fall to the way side in time. in the mean time if i can make a few euro's on why not

Pokermandude · February 3, 2012 4:16AM

<< When a company with this much market share goes public, it is usually because the owners see a need to cash in now and not later. I propose FB unpublished research shows a declining marketshare in the future. >>

This makes perfect sense to me. I just can't forsee Facebook needing billions of dollars for anything that will give them a bigger market share. Perhaps they will try to crack into other markets such as online gambling (Zynga is looking into this right now) to take advantage of this massive pool of daily users that they have.

pf70collector · February 3, 2012 4:44AM

If I were Zuckerburg I would cash out a $billion right way. Take the money and run.

streeter · February 3, 2012 4:52AM

Facebook is going to have a lot of ammunition after this IPO with a lot of 0's after the ONE. I wouldn't be suprised to see them go on an acquisition spree and fill the holes in their ecosystem.

jmb · February 3, 2012 5:02AM

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

DrBuster · February 3, 2012 5:06AM

<< Facebook is going to have a lot of ammunition after this IPO with a lot of 0's after the ONE. I wouldn't be suprised to see them go on an acquisition spree and fill the holes in their ecosystem. >>

.

playtika, popcap, zynga are the main game companies I see and play with.

DrBuster · February 3, 2012 5:11AM

<< 

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

>>

You guys need to have the same, or more foil, attitude about google. If you don't then you should and not use that either. Same rules apply, facebook just makes you agree to pieces ofit.

<-google administrator for the gov for a good IT stretch.

derryb · February 3, 2012 5:13AM

<< 

<< 

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

>>

You guys need to have the same, or more foil, attitude about google. If you don't then you should and not use that either. Same rules apply, facebook just makes you agree to pieces ofit.

<-google administrator for the gov for a good IT stretch. >>

I only use the forum, that's more exposure than I need. I think of it as my MyFace page.

DrBuster · February 3, 2012 5:15AM

Ha, yeah i agree. I'm 10000% more active here, but ikeep up with both about the same.

Tiggs2012 · February 4, 2012 2:51AM

<< When a company with this much market share goes public, it is usually because the owners see a need to cash in now and not later. I propose FB unpublished research shows a declining marketshare in the future. >>

Actually, FB is running into the same forced financial SEC disclosure rules with their investor base that Google ran into and forced Google to IPO. At that point, there's no reason not go public. The S1 filing clearly shows that Zuck is in control and he delayed the IPO as long as he could. His previous actions have all showed how cash is not a prime motivator. From an investment standpoint, the question is what the monetization rates of users will be in the future. Currently per the S1 its ~$4+ per user. Thats a greater consideration than looking at user growth.

derryb · February 4, 2012 3:06AM

Advertising income (80% for FB) is based on it's number of active users. A reduction in active use will result in a reduction of revenue. I submit that the market is fully saturated for FB and FB knows this. Really no place to go but down. While the feeding frenzy will drive the IPO up, it will settle down. A quick in and out will be a money maker, but I see a long time hold not doing so well.

pf70collector · February 6, 2012 5:39AM

Face Book is a great marketing tool. When it users feel that they are being exploited they may leave. Where else can marketers target probably over a half billion people worldwide in one place.

gsa1fan · February 6, 2012 7:22AM

<< 

<< 

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

>>

You guys need to have the same, or more foil, attitude about google. If you don't then you should and not use that either. Same rules apply, facebook just makes you agree to pieces ofit.

<-google administrator for the gov for a good IT stretch. >>

How's Google bad as FB?

derryb · February 6, 2012 7:43AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

>>

You guys need to have the same, or more foil, attitude about google. If you don't then you should and not use that either. Same rules apply, facebook just makes you agree to pieces ofit.

<-google administrator for the gov for a good IT stretch. >>

How's Google bad as FB? >>

When on the internet you are playing in someone else's playground.

DrBuster · February 6, 2012 8:17AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< I think facebook has become an opportunity for everyone to have his/her on reality show. I also think it is a great place to surrender your privacy, both willingly and unwillingly. I'm looking forward to the day a virus gets a foothold and shuts down almost a billion computers. I would also think that a smart hacker (or a government) would see FB as the single best way to infiltrate a large number of computers. FB, as great as it appears to its users, is ultimately a threat to individual computer security and personal privacy. >>

>>

You guys need to have the same, or more foil, attitude about google. If you don't then you should and not use that either. Same rules apply, facebook just makes you agree to pieces ofit.

<-google administrator for the gov for a good IT stretch. >>

How's Google bad as FB? >>

Every search box, every one, gathers and is open for communication to the host to cache mine. Figure every host or website has a search box that knows your pre/present/post behavior.

droopyd · February 6, 2012 8:34AM

<< I still don't see the fascination with McDs burritos, err, Chipotle. >>

Mickey D sold its stake in Chipotle more than 5 years ago. Something about it not aligning with its core business.

droopyd · February 6, 2012 8:35AM

<< If I were Zuckerburg I would cash out a $billion right way. Take the money and run. >>

I think he's planning to do just that!

Theory is he will hold his 120M shares bought at 6 cents for a year, then sell a bunch and be hit with only the 15% long-term cap gains tax.

DrBuster · February 6, 2012 8:40AM

<< 

<< I still don't see the fascination with McDs burritos, err, Chipotle. >>

Mickey D sold its stake in Chipotle more than 5 years ago. Something about it not aligning with its core business. >>

Thats still not as long as i havent paid attention to chipotle. Wow, didn't know it was that long ago.

MilesWaits · February 16, 2012 5:07AM

Is this the facebook you are referring to??

Got a Precious Metal 1911?

So What do Y'all think of the FaceBook deal??...

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