Romney presidency and gold
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
Looks like Mitt Romney is the odds on favorite to become the Republican nominee. What would a Romney presidency mean for gold and silver? There is no need or desire for political discussion here, as tempting as that may be for the political flame-flies. What might be more useful are the practical realities for investors as the odds of a Romney presidency wax and wane.
0
Comments
but one thing is sure, you will get many kinds of responses to the question:
-it doesn't matter, all politicians are the same
-it doesn't matter, they're all in Wall St.'s pocket
-it doesn't matter, the sheeple will vote themselves our money
-it doesn't matter, we're all doomed anyway
and the classic
-it doesn't matter, only Ron Paul and a gold standard will save us
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<insert-thumbs-up-emoticon-here>
peacockcoins
My question is WHY ain't it higher RIGHT NOW??????
The end is surely near so WHY ain't it higher??????
Just wondering,,, GrandAm
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>All but one of them appear to eager to start another war. War in that area of the world would definitely drive up oil and gold. >>
Yup. One of them is an isolationist. We've seen how that has kept us out of past wars. Fortunately, he has little chance of getting elected president.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What might be interesting to think about are the future U.S. relationships with China and India. There is a strong undercurrent of anti-Chinese sentiment in the land, and a new president might be tempted to go more protectionist. Romney has not outlined that kind of position, but again, he tends to be a pragmatist and if the economy remains soft, he may need a scapegoat, and China will be a convenient place to turn.
As for why gold isn't higher, 11 straight up years isn't enough is it? A 500% up move from the lows isn't enough is it? But as to more practical reasons, back to China. China is tightening monetary policy, and their economy is softening. Chinese can get 6% or 7% on their short term money, and with the gold rally faltering, that seems attractive to many. I'm sure that even some here, would bail out of gold if they could get 6% in one-year CDs too. In my opinion China and India have been driving the bus for most of this 11 year bull market. Their economies have been growing. The upper classes in Asia have had vast sums to invest and I believe a lot of it went into gold. With those two Asian economies cooling, there is less new money to put into the pot. Some ask about platinum, and Japan is traditionally the country that favors that metal for investment. No surprise platinum is weak given the earthquake related disruptions to their economy.
A lot folks focus on the U. S. deficit, and U. S. monetary policy, but a sour economy and a lost decade in the stock market means average Americans and even wealthy Americans have had little extra money to buy much gold. Then there is the spending culture that dominates half the U.S. population, that never saves money. Instead of buying gold, or stocks or bonds, or putting money into the bank, some of those with discretionary income have put it into big TVs, cable TV and Internet packages, Ipads, Iphones, and the monthly bills that go with them, and daily trips Starbucks, and weekly trips to Whole Foods.
A new president has a chance at making a dent in that consumption culture, but Romney is unlikely to be the kind of guy that will do that. It isn't practical to focus on any of the other Republican candidates besides Romney at this point, because their odds of winning are in the low single digits now. After South Carolina and Florida, most of the rest will drop out and/or run out of money.
<< <i>The G will get the unemployment rate close to or under 8% and Obama will be re-elected, so IMO this topic is moot. >>
I'd give the current chief a better than even chance that he gets re-elected (the real money market agrees with my assessment, see below). That doesn't make the topic moot though. During the campaign, those odds will go higher and lower, and markets react to what might be, not what is. It certainly isn't a lock for reelection. However, with $2 billion to spend on campaign ads and Chicago-style dirty tricks, the majority of the big money still him (Hollywood, Google and most of Silicon Valley, Warren Buffett), and 80% of working media openly backing him, it is long odds to bet against the chief.
If one is sure one way or the other, there is a place to bet on that too. Intrade offers odds on the election, though bets are limited to $500. I just checked and current odds for reelection are 51%.
<< <i>I would expect more "business as usual" with Romney than with the other primary candidates with the exception of Santorium who would be even closer to business as usual. All but one of them appear to eager to start another war. War in that area of the world would definitely drive up oil and gold. >>
+1000
I heard Santorum on one of the AM shows a few weeks back and he essentially said elect me and I will punish Iran. Nothing we do in the middle east turns out well so it's truly baffling to me that Ron Paul is mocked for simply wanting to mind our own business for a while.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This should bode well for gold as he will be less inhibited in a second term.
If Obama is re-elected, he will veto any repeal of obamacare, the large tax increases will kick in, and a Republican Congress will be unlikely to get much accomplished in either direction. This isn't your garden-variety Bill Clinton-type of populist politician in the White House.
I anticipate an "emergency" on Capitol Hill. Which is probably good for gold.
I knew it would happen.
Newt Gingrich, will win if not 4 mo yeers of BO~JMO! Peace, Tim
Hey Buddy, GOT CASH?
<< <i>If you rob Peter to pay Paul, you can always count on Paul's vote. Methinks this is good for Peter if he has gold regardless of who the R nominee is.
Hey Buddy, GOT CASH? >>
I agree. As long as those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for a living nothing will change. The ticks now outnumber the dogs. More important than ever to get the dogs out on Nov. 2, may be the last chance to change course as the number of ticks is surely to continue growing. You get bet all of the ticks will show up Nov. 2 to keep the blood flowing.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
things that are out of Capitol Hill / White House hands...will have the most influence on markets and PM's.
...except their constant distortions of truth into pure deception and fantasy
51% now, maybe up to mid 50's, then down, and out.
"The ticks now outnumber the dogs."
+1
<< <i>me thinks not too much reaction with gold or silver either way before election.
things that are out of Capitol Hill / White House hands...will have the most influence on markets and PM's.
...except their constant distortions of truth into pure deception and fantasy
51% now, maybe up to mid 50's, then down, and out. >>
Short term influences on PMs are going to be QE3 and Iran. Euro failure already baked in.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
+ another 1
<< <i>My opinion is that an Obama reelection is baked in the cake. Romney has been chosen as the man who can lose.
This should bode well for gold as he will be less inhibited in a second term. >>
Agree. The banksters love the control they currently have and will do whatever they need to do to ensure it stays that way.
But really it doesn't matter who gets in. Nothing is going to change until the system finally locks up or breaks. That will be the "warning sign"
to the govt that they really do need to do something asap. Derivatives will continued to be piled on and regulators won't be asked to regulate.
Gold is still headed to much higher numbers in the next 2-6 yrs. That's already baked into the cake. Gold may have had an 11 yr run, but so has
the dollar, derivatives, and debt (D3). I see no reason why we won't have more D3 in 2012. If we don't want to see a 12th year of higher gold prices
then the unregulated paper chain has to be broken. Who's going to address debt, derivatives, and fiat printing this year?
There's only one man running who would make a difference.
<< <i>It'll just be same ole, same ole.
There's only one man running who would make a difference. >>
Amen I just pray he gets elected. He would *crush* Obama.
Successful Transactions With: JoeLewis, Mkman123, Harry779, Grote15, gdavis70, Kryptonitecomics
Gov O'Malley wants to raise the sales tax in MD from 6 to 7 percent to plug up a $1 Billion Budget Shortfall. These Politicians do not and will never cut spending. I am sure the majority of the U.S wants to cut spending, but these guys do not care about the general consensus.
Box of 20
<< <i>Gov O'Malley wants to raise the sales tax in MD from 6 to 7 percent to plug up a $1 Billion Budget Shortfall. >>
He was also the one who raised it from 5% to 6% a couple of years ago.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>If the car has already gone over the cliff, changing drivers is not likely to make a big difference. >>
Quite frankly, until J6P starts exerting his Constitutionally-given rights and responsibilities and truly starts to purse (and not have handed to him) happiness, PM's have no other choice but to go up. Unfortunately, it ain't gonna make you rich if you hold PMs...just make you able to eat for a few more days than the ticks.
FWIW...
<< <i>If the car has already gone over the cliff, changing drivers is not likely to make a big difference. >>
Spare me the hyperbole about cars and cliffs. As I have written many times, truly hard times, the kind of events that make major currencies go to zero or near zero, involve major historic events. The big four are: revolution, losing a major war (eg World War), major famine, or major plague. Understand that these kind of events tend to come with a heavy human cost, often with 25% of the population killed or crippled, and the nation erased from world maps. Net worth, retirement savings, even standard of living, may become relatively minor concerns when 1/4 of everyone you know is dead or seriously injured, and the USA no longer appears on world maps.
As for the ticks and dogs comment, it is interesting to me that half the country doesn't save any money, about half the population pays zero Federal income tax, and it seems that about half are going to vote to reelect.
I think the worldwide economic turmoil of the past four years qualifies as a major historic event.
In today's environment, uncontrolled printing of unbacked currencies is more likely to cause war, famine, plague and revolution than result from them.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>events that make major currencies go to zero or near zero, involve major historic events. The big four are: revolution, losing a major war (eg World War), major famine, or major plague. >>
What major event resulted in the fall of the Roman empire?
I would argue that a prolonged combination of political and economic stupidity trumps them all. Sometimes a long series of small non-historic events trumps even the biggest of major events. I propose this to be our current course and our eventual downfall.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>So when do we start burning the crosses? (you know, to get rid of the "ticks") >>
Comes across as a very racist comment. Was that your intention?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Typical response when you don't have any legitimate counterpoints to the inevitable failure of the welfare state. Disgustingly vile, in fact.
Karma has a way of coming back to bite you. Eventually, mr. racebaiter will have to find a job, pay taxes and actually function in a world that demands performance and really doesn't care if he "feels" superior to the people around him.
The constant drumbeat of the welfare state sounds pretty good when he doesn't have enough life experience to know that like it or not, he is gonna be responsible for his own outcome and the government ain't gonna help him when he needs it most.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Short term influences on PMs are going to be QE3 and Iran. Euro failure already baked in. >>
“If you see the war with Iran happening, and I definitely see it happening, then gold will blow right past $2,000.” -- Jim Rickards
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Box of 20
<< <i>If we don't go to war with Iran, Israel certainly will. There will be no natiion building for Iran when the war is over at least by the U.S. No more money. >>
If Israel goes to war with Iran, we'll be there too. It's inevitable. The stage is set; sanctions + military presence + political posturing + X = war, where X is some event that sets it all in motion. The assassination of Iran's nuclear scientist might be X if it is revealed that either we or Israel were behind it.
<< <i>
<< <i>If we don't go to war with Iran, Israel certainly will. There will be no natiion building for Iran when the war is over at least by the U.S. No more money. >>
If Israel goes to war with Iran, we'll be there too. It's inevitable. The stage is set; sanctions + military presence + political posturing + X = war, where X is some event that sets it all in motion. The assassination of Iran's nuclear scientist might be X if it is revealed that either we or Israel were behind it. >>
Agree. Don't forget we're in an election year and the current incumbent will have an uphill battle to get re-elected. Anyone see the movie "Wag the Dog"?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>events that make major currencies go to zero or near zero, involve major historic events. The big four are: revolution, losing a major war (eg World War), major famine, or major plague. >>
What major event resulted in the fall of the Roman empire?
I would argue that a prolonged combination of political and economic stupidity trumps them all. Sometimes a long series of small non-historic events trumps even the biggest of major events. I propose this to be our current course and our eventual downfall. >>
You have a good point. I concede that one. However, the fall of Rome was a glacial event in terms of time frame (the unreliable Wikipedia says four centuries from peak to fall). If you are like most here, looking for something to happen in your lifetime, it is much more likely to be one of the big four events, not a glacial speed decline into the mud.
As for recent events being "big ones," I vote nay. Yes, the fall of Lehman was a significant financial event, but it will be a very minor footnote in most 2100 era history books. If USA is no longer on the map, Lehman won't be mentioned at all. Keep in mind that Chicken Little is always with us. Anyone that has followed financial news for any length of time can always point to a bogeyman that will end the world as we know it. At one time it was Japan buying up all the U.S. property, at one time it was NAFTA, at one time it was Y2K and all the computers going kaput. There is always something, and most of the time the sky doesn't fall, and the economy muddles through. For those wanting and wishing the sky to fall, for revolution or worse to come here, be careful what you wish for. That kind of change often comes at a high human cost. Only a few misguided souls will be primarily concerned about their portfolio, when the USA is erased off the maps, and 25% of the population is dead or crippled.
Again, I agree that all fiat currencies are going to zero. It is a matter of timing. If the zero for the US dollar comes 400 years out or 200 years out due to slow decline, that analysis is of limited use to those making decisions today.
<< <i>It appears I am in the minority here. I do not think Obama will be reelected. Current polls indicate that people are dissatisfied with him 2-1. Now, polls do not tell everything, and certainly have been wrong. However, reading many different sites, forums and media outlets, I tend to believe that the 'sleeping giant' of the American conservative population (which, according to many studies, outnumbers all other factions) may awaken and vote this year. I, of course, may be totally mistaken. Certainly when I predicted $2K gold by the end of 2011 I was wrong. In this case, however, (and mind you, I follow sites of both political camps) I see enough unrest (even among democrats) to indicate we are looking at a one term presidency. We shall see. Cheers, RickO >>
It is not a lock. However the cash market at Intrade shows Obama as the 51% favorite. Those forumites that are certain one way or the other can place real money bets, albeit small bets. Again, $2 billion for campaign ads will sway a lot of sheeple votes. I believe that most of the big money is still backing Obama, despite what the press is reporting about Wall Street and Romney. If Goldman Sachs et al wasn't backing Obama, Treasury Secretary Geithner (ex-Goldman employee) would have been fired by now. Obama/Bernanke/Geithner policies have cause great hardship with many elderly with near zero CD rates, coupled with skyrocketing food prices. The media doesn't report the hardship or the complaints, because it is their guy in office. Beside as one Fed banker said, there is no need to complain about food prices because Ipads are cheaper. Control of the narrative is a powerful tool and the paid media is in his pocket, with 80% openly backing him.
There are the Chicago-style dirty tricks, such as made up hit piece stories, dead people voting, and moving bus fulls of paid union members to vote in key districts where they is a close Congressional race. There is the more open corruption in terms of vote counting, and using any excuse to disallow military absentee ballots in close states.
Again, half the population doesn't save any money. Half doesn't pay any Federal Income tax. Is it too much to think that half will vote for reelection?
This is likely a true sentiment and is certainly backed by a couple of polls I've seen but I don't think it will be confirmed in November. This prez has grown the gov and his influence considerably by "keeping us safe" and imposing all kinds of precious freedom robbing initiatives on us, from getting gropped when traveling to having all of our personal communications and financial records available for potential future gov scrutiny. The key lock is that he has eric "my people" covering his back. Folks are griping about it but I've noticed that most everyone still bends over freely when asked.
Likely as well, the R's will own the bicameral part of the operation so this begs that the oval one exert some special powers to bypass the block. I would look for special powers to migrate into emergency powers if the big O comes back for a victory lap. Hey, at least you're safe.
Romney schmomney, just play the hand as you see it...you probably have better vision than you think.
Got CASH?
Anyone ever consider what percentage of those Americans are under 18 or over 65? Are folks really comfortable with those categorizing little kids and old grandparents among the "blood sucking ticks" and "leeches"?
Surely the population of able-bodied "slackers, takers, and cheaters" although significant, should be reduced from the 50% number bandied about so often?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Hiring others to fight their wars for them.
Gold went up during Bush, gold went up faster during Obama. Did Obama make it rise? Did Bush? The think a President Rmoney wouldn't matter. (Freudian slip on purpose)
Anyone ever consider what percentage of those Americans are under 18 or over 65? Are folks really comfortable with those categorizing little kids and old grandparents among the "blood sucking ticks" and "leeches"?
Surely the population of able-bodied "slackers, takers, and cheaters" although significant, should be reduced from the 50% number bandied about so often?
Baley, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that the numbers refer to those who file federal returns, and that 47% of those filing pay no net federal income taxes.
And as you say, there are a significant number of non-contributors just as there are a certain number who are justifiably "hard luck cases". The point is - the system needs more scrutiny when professional slackers can so easily ride on the coattails of those who have spent their lives working hard.
Pointing out the fact that "bloodsucking ticks and leeches" exploit the system to the detriment of everyone - is critical because you can't solve a problem if you refuse to acknowledge its existence.
The crux of this issue is whether or not you should be able to keep what you earn. If you can't keep what you earn, doesn't that make you a slave to those who exploit the system?
I knew it would happen.