Will crashing PM prices cast a pall over FUN?

shorecoll

What say you FUN vets?

JCMhouston

For people collecting coins, as opposed to stacking bullion, I don't see what one has to do with the other. I wouldn't think there would be many people trekking to FUN just to buy bullion, and I doubt many dealers will be dragging a bunch of bullion to the show.

I suppose that people might be wanting to buy common gold like some of the $20 Saints at near bullion prices, and many dealers wont't want to sell at todays bullion prices, but that's about it as far as I can see.

Lakesammman

I'd be interested in what the dealers say. My impression has been that it's like the stock market - there's more consumer confidence and stronger prices when the market is up, the opposite when down.

Translation - weaker offers for your coins, weaker auction prices realized.

GoldenEyeNumismatics

For people that deal in generics or bullion, it will be a very different show. I think most of them will probably be holding their inventories. A few will probably try to cut there losses and sell.

The more common Type 1 $20's that have seen a significant rise in premiums with rising gold prices will probably take a sizable hit.

RYK

I will say that it should have little effect.

The Duckor Saints, for example, will not be affected by the recent fall in gold prices. Even generic gold, which has not really risen along with gold prices, will not fall significantly. The FUN show especially is all about great coins, Platinum nights, displays, and optimism for the new year. If PM prices remain soft, this might be more of a problem for the winter Long Beach show.

The more common Type 1 $20's that have seen a significant rise in premiums with rising gold prices will probably take a sizable hit.

I am going to disagree with this, too. The Type I $20's are now being purchased and accumulated as numimsatic coins, not bullion equivalents.

shorecoll

I'm split on the issue, and I do think it's psychological. I don't think it will affect the higher-end auction material...but it might put some consumers and some dealers in a bad mood. I've seen similar events affect a show like Baltimore, I don't know if it would affect something the size of FUN. If I was a dealer thinking about losing $1MM last week...it might affect my outlook.

IrishMikey

Most of the dealers I know that do a lot of bullion business are pretty careful to limit their exposure to
price swings, so that should not be a major detraction. On the other hand, speculators and investors
are notorious for buying into "up" markets and pulling back when prices go south, which could hurt cash
flows for months. While I think that the upcoming FUN show will do well overall, in my opinion other shows
coming up will be hurt by the PM "crash."

yellowkid

No.

291fifth

Choice, high end numismatic coins will continue to do well regardless of what bullion does.

Common or less than choice material will continue to decline regardless of what bullion does because the people who used to buy such material at shows are no longer attending due to lack of money.

Since FUN has always been a high-end numismatic show it probably won't be much affected by the decline in bullion value.

agentjim007

Ain't gonna help.

topstuf

Will adversely affect.

roadrunner

Generally rising bullion prices for much of the past 2-1/2 yrs has helped to keep the bulk of the rare coin market elevated. Current PM prices will certainly
have an effect on those areas. The top 1-10% of coins that everyone chases after will be mostly unaffected. A sharp drop in bullion prices before any major coin
is always a negative factor.

Dr. Duckor's Saints will also be affected. Let's see...approx 50 coins x $100 drop in gold.....about $5,000 less....

roadrunner

Mowgli

<< <i>Generally rising bullion prices for much of the past 2-1/2 yrs has helped to keep the bulk of the rare coin market elevated. Current PM prices will certainly
have an effect on those areas. The top 1-10% of coins that everyone chases after will be mostly unaffected. A sharp drop in bullion prices before any major coin
is always a negative factor. >>





I talked with a dealer last night who said FUN will not be as good if there is a drop in PM prices and he doesn't deal in gold.

MikeInFL

Yes, it will hurt.

Won't hurt the big-money collections (as was pointed out above, and I don't think it will hurt the classics dealers so much (although I would expect the overall lessening of foot traffic to effect even them), but there's a LOT of PM trading that goes on at FUN, and a dip on PMs will significantly affect that.

coinkid855

It'll hurt me considering I was planning on selling a bunch of bullion to pay for my purchases. Now I have to figure something else out.



-Paul

joebb21

PerryHall

Many coin dealers derive a large part of their income from selling bullion and bullion related coins (common date Morgans, Saints, etc). When these dealers suffer a loss of income, it has to hurt the coin market to some degree.

shorecoll

Realone, I'm not saying it's a REAL crash, just a relative one...I bought most of my junk silver at $4/ounce so I know there's a long way to go. I would go so far as to say that the recent PM boom has kept the doors open on some shops that the economy would have shuttered. IMHO.

DennisH

It may add a bit more caution to a minority of buyers' willingness to spend.
It may cause merchandise to be removed from a minority of dealers' cases.

My experience has been that FUN is a higher-end numismatic event which revolves around collector material, not bulk metals. Therefore, I don't think their current market pullback will have any significant effect on the show.

OldEastside

Well if history repeats itself like back in 1980 and the Hunt
Brothers fiasco, when PM's fell, the hobby also got a couple
of black eyes, it gave rise to everything modern cardboard.
It was'nt until the State Quarters came out that the hobby
started to regain it's composure and regain it, it did with a
vengance, Franklins and Jeffersons come to mind. So don't
let it spoil your FUN, either way if you look at it in a positive
light, you should do OK and still enjoy the Hobby.

Steve

fastfreddie

<< <i>Many coin dealers derive a large part of their income from selling bullion and bullion related coins (common date Morgans, Saints, etc). When these dealers suffer a loss of income, it has to hurt the coin market to some degree. >>



+1 if they are selling.

ProofCoins

If PM's dive FUN won't be fune

ProofCoins

It all depends upon where it was last week when dealers bought whats in their case PM wise

Elcontador

Personally, I think it is a good idea that rare coins de-couple from bullion prices.

As long as volume re the bullion market is consistent, dealers should make their money on the spread, which should be pretty constant in terms of percentage. Ie., if you make 5% on a Maple Leaf and its price goes from $1,800 to $1,650, that means the dealer would make $7.50 less per coin. He won't like it, but it shouldn't break the bank. Now if volume takes a hit during a drop in bullion prices, that's a different story. As I don't collect bullion, I don't know the ratio between rising and falling prices and bullion sales and demand for these items.

BryceM

Gold isn't too bad. Silver & platinum are taking it much worse. Apart from that, I think it'll affect the low-end guys more than the high-end guys.