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Dont Panic, Silver at 27 is a great deal. Dont Panic, Silver will rebound.
silvereagle
Posts: 290 ✭
Dont panic. We getting getting butt raped everyday PM is getting crushed and every time silver falls by the most. I know its hard, but dont panic and sell. Dont give up on PM. This is a buying opportunity and in the long run we are going to win.
Right now, Silver is about $27.10 an ounce, and while it may ( probably will) fall even farther, I can almost guarantee that silver will get back to $40 or higher within the next 5 years. This drop is only temporary, as people flee the euro and come to the dollar. In this short term that is making the dollar strengthen. Also we have some forced liquidation of Euro banks. In the long run this is very bullish for silver for a few reasons.
1. Right now, the EU is being forced to get its financial house in order. At least some improvements are being made to prevent the total collapse of the Euro.
2. We, the US seem to think we arent subject to the same rules that the rest of the world are. Most Americans seem to think we can spend, borrow and print with impunity. I think this current situation in Europe is only compounding that belief. We have been overspending on a level not seen in the history of the world for a full decade now and yet the world calls the US Dollar the greatest safe haven. That is just insane. I think that most politicians and the public have come to believe we can borrow, spend, print all we want and there will never be any consequences.
3. This attitude all but guarantees that while the rest of the world are taking steps to improve their long term financial stability, we the US will continue to spend, print , and borrow. We will no doubt pass the 20 trillion debt mark before Jan 1 2015, and we will be at or close to 30 trillion by dec 31 2019. Yes I call 8 years from today the national debt will be at or very close to 30 trillion. Even by CBO estimates it will be about 26 trillion in 8 years. That is adding 1.25 trillion per year.
We just need to keep buying and lower the DCA because while silver may fall to 20 in the short term, its still going to go up well beyond its curret 27 in the long term. IMO anyway
Right now, Silver is about $27.10 an ounce, and while it may ( probably will) fall even farther, I can almost guarantee that silver will get back to $40 or higher within the next 5 years. This drop is only temporary, as people flee the euro and come to the dollar. In this short term that is making the dollar strengthen. Also we have some forced liquidation of Euro banks. In the long run this is very bullish for silver for a few reasons.
1. Right now, the EU is being forced to get its financial house in order. At least some improvements are being made to prevent the total collapse of the Euro.
2. We, the US seem to think we arent subject to the same rules that the rest of the world are. Most Americans seem to think we can spend, borrow and print with impunity. I think this current situation in Europe is only compounding that belief. We have been overspending on a level not seen in the history of the world for a full decade now and yet the world calls the US Dollar the greatest safe haven. That is just insane. I think that most politicians and the public have come to believe we can borrow, spend, print all we want and there will never be any consequences.
3. This attitude all but guarantees that while the rest of the world are taking steps to improve their long term financial stability, we the US will continue to spend, print , and borrow. We will no doubt pass the 20 trillion debt mark before Jan 1 2015, and we will be at or close to 30 trillion by dec 31 2019. Yes I call 8 years from today the national debt will be at or very close to 30 trillion. Even by CBO estimates it will be about 26 trillion in 8 years. That is adding 1.25 trillion per year.
We just need to keep buying and lower the DCA because while silver may fall to 20 in the short term, its still going to go up well beyond its curret 27 in the long term. IMO anyway
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Comments
to tell you the truth I'd like to see it drop to $15/oz
so I can bring my average down when I load up on
more physical, I agree its not time to panic and sell,
I think its a ploy by those who want to control PMs
to rattle those in to selling that are in it at 35/up.
Plus I really don't think it'll take 5 years to get back
to 40
Steve
All this price drop is is a chance to make some more profit. I am still having a hard time buying 90% for any wher near spot as most know its going back up.
Tried to buy 3 rolls of nice AU/BU 64 kennedy's from a guy on EBID. He wants $320 a roll, 32 X face, which is $45 an ounce. I offered $220 a roll. he said he is just going to keep them until silver gets back to $45 an ounce then sell them for $320 or more a roll. I am getting that a lot.
I will buy gold at 1350 and silver at 21. Until then I am holding and not selling.
<< <i>Tried to buy 3 rolls of nice AU/BU 64 kennedy's from a guy on EBID. He wants $320 a roll, 32 X face, which is $45 an ounce. I offered $220 a roll. he said he is just going to keep them until silver gets back to $45 an ounce then sell them for $320 or more a roll. I am getting that a lot. >>
32x face ?
head on over to provident and buy these if you want to overpay for kennedys ( and washingtons and roosevelts)
1964 proof sets
I'm watching the world. 2012 will be interesting. Historians will try to figure it out. How the heck did it happen again. Rinse and repeat. Take care. jws
if world governments continue to suppress gold and silver prices via various nefarious means, gold and silver prices will drop without good reason
I'm thinking holding and continuing to add to the stacks is a wise move. LONG TERM, precious metals (and a few other commodities) are the only real money out there
If you think it's hard to find silver at around spot right now, it probably won't get much better at a lower price level - unless it stays low for awhile.
I don't know if silver is going back up real soon. Maybe. Maybe not. Keep averaging in.
If you can guarantee me that you know which direction silver is going, please pm me.
I knew it would happen.
BSTs with: Coll3ctor, gsa1fan, mkman123, ajbauman, tydye, piecesofme, pursuitofliberty
Travelog - 20in20travels.com
Just remember, the drop in PM's is due solely to everyone running from other asset classes (especially the Euro) and buying the 'safe' US dollar.
The US and all other countries for that matter, will have to keep printing massive amounts of money to 'try' to get out of this mess.
It's the path of least resistance (as opposed to cut spending and raise taxes).
Put another way, if you were to invest $100,000 for 5 years and could only buy either US dollars or Gold, which one would you buy?
I would assume 98% of the people on this board would say Gold.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
The general consensus is now that gold as a "safety play" is long gone and that the hedge funds are panicky about their gold profits evaporating before their eyes. They did concede however that in 2008, gold was one of the first assets to recover from the financial meltdown.
They also had an analyst talking about oil and how Iran would be crazy to provoke a worldwide recession by shutting down the oil traffic in the Persian Gulf because it would shut down their only source of revenue as oil demand drops.
Their final commentary was about the new revelations that US Banks are holding trillions of bad European CDS paper and that we are definitely, positively all in this together.
**Ahem** What's new about any of this? We are seeing 2008 all over again, on steroids this time. And since when has Iran not acted crazy and against it's own self-interest? And really, who is surprised that US banks have bad European paper? It's all part of the same banking system.
It looks to me like a great time to have some money to keep putting into gold and silver, but I still wouldn't go out and dump everything into metals all at once. I'd never buy in or sell out all at once, and I'd never tell anyone else to do that either.
The markets are convulsing because paper gold and silver are being sold off. It's only uncomfortable to watch this decline in metals because the financial media can't identify their heads from their posterior region, and they are paid to make it seem what it isn't. It's not in CNBC's owners' interests for anyone to go outside the fiat currency system.
The corruption on Wall Street and in DC hasn't been fixed. The unfunded liabilities haven't been fixed. Discussion about Iran is a smoke screen when the real issues involve debt and corruption. I only want as many dollars as it takes to go about normal daily living, but for financial security I'll take precious metals every day of the week.
They are going to keep inflating to counter the gigantic sucking sound you hear coming from the banking system. Play your own hand, not theirs.
I knew it would happen.
I'm not sure where you've been hybernating, but the "bul"l left the stable earlier this year & the "bear" has taken his place
Yes, there is a very concentrated and strong across the board effort to keep the money from the consumers moving with as much velocity as possible toward the big players. An equally strong effort also in keeping the USD in play across the world. Big US fiat flowing to european banks and the mideast governments so they don't forget who's their daddy while half of the people in the states are living off the public dole. It is absolutely imperative that each of us has the huevos and information to play their own hand at this time as the heaping servings of bulldougie being offered up to the public is epic...but they seem to be eating it up or at least not griping too much about getting the mushroom treatment.
For the new year: Keep some cash nearby, a few weeks worth. Keep buying a little metal on the way down and expect to hold it for a while. Have a plan B. Oh yeah, rotate your crops and your canned goods. Enjoy!
Get CASH
<< <i>"This bull market run is far from over, and I still think we'll see $100 silver before it's all said and done."
I'm not sure where you've been hybernating, but the "bul"l left the stable earlier this year & the "bear" has taken his place >>
There's a phenomenon called a "correction" which sometimes happens during bull markets. Perhaps you've heard of it?
<< <i>
<< <i>Tried to buy 3 rolls of nice AU/BU 64 kennedy's from a guy on EBID. He wants $320 a roll, 32 X face, which is $45 an ounce. I offered $220 a roll. he said he is just going to keep them until silver gets back to $45 an ounce then sell them for $320 or more a roll. I am getting that a lot. >>
32x face ?
head on over to provident and buy these if you want to overpay for kennedys ( and washingtons and roosevelts)
1964 proof sets
Yeah ur not kidding. If you ever need a good laugh, just log into EBID and check what the sellers over there want for their coins. You will laugh ur ass off. I especially love the sellers selling MONARCH 10 ounce silver bars for sometimes $200-$250 more than Monarch is selling the exact same bar for. I have found a couple 20X deals on the BST in the last couple days though, so I am happy with that. Will try Provident soon, its just I like to see the coins and know exactly what denomination I am getting. I guess for that though, I have to expect to pay a little more.
<< <i>I knew we were in trouble the moment GOLDman Sachs said gold was going to two thousand.
I will buy gold at 1350 and silver at 21. Until then I am holding and not selling. >>
silver at $18 would be better
<< <i>Since you can tell the future will you tell me the next mega game winning numbers? >>
Terrible comparison.
The mega game winning numbers are pure luck.
Looking at a country 15 trillion dollars in debt and still planning to overspend 1 trillion plus every year for the next decade and saying, hmmm the currency of that country is not something I want to hold, well thats not luck.
One is pure luck, the other is pure common sense.
<< <i>
<< <i>"This bull market run is far from over, and I still think we'll see $100 silver before it's all said and done."
I'm not sure where you've been hibernating, but the "bull" left the stable earlier this year & the "bear" has taken his place >>
There's a phenomenon called a "correction" which sometimes happens during bull markets. Perhaps you've heard of it? >>
Really? Reminds me of an old saying: "My mind is made up, don't confuse me with the facts." How much of a "correction" in your opinion, constitutes a bear market? So far, it's about 45%. I believe you were whistling the same tune when silver hit $40, $35 and $30.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"This bull market run is far from over, and I still think we'll see $100 silver before it's all said and done."
I'm not sure where you've been hibernating, but the "bull" left the stable earlier this year & the "bear" has taken his place >>
There's a phenomenon called a "correction" which sometimes happens during bull markets. Perhaps you've heard of it? >>
Really? Reminds me of an old saying: "My mind is made up, don't confuse me with the facts." How much of a "correction" in your opinion, constitutes a bear market? So far, it's about 45%. I believe you were whistling the same tune when silver hit $40, $35 and $30. >>
I don't remember opining on whether silver was in a bear market versus a correction when it hit $40, $35, or $30. If have a link to my prior comments please post it.
As to your question, a price decline doesn't necessarily equal a bear market. Silver fell more than 50% in the fall of 2008, and that wasn't a bear market. We'll only know in the long run whether this is a bear market or just a correction. My money is on a correction, and I mean that literally. I just bought $40 face in 90% silver this afternoon. If I thought this was the beginning of a long bear market, I wouldn't have bought it.
Isn't the standard measure of a bear market something like 20%? Nevertheless, I tend to agree with secondrepublic in terms of duration. This is a more volatile repeat of 2008, and none of the problems have been solved - in fact they are exascerbated from what we saw then.
The old definitions of market parameters referred mainly to markets that didn't involve flash trading and OTC derivatives in huge numbers that are virtually unregulated. After the demise of Glass-Stegal, it provided incentive for the banks to engage in massive fraud, which they've been able to accomplish - in spades. And it's not over. This isn't your father's definition of a bear market.
All of the old valuation standards have been chucked out the window, especially since FASB agreed to allow the fraud as "whatever you guys want". If MF Global isn't enough to snap you into "reality", then you won't see the next one either. Now the bankruptcy courts are screwing with the little guy's rights as well. It's not going to stop until it gets fixed by an honest system run by honest brokers.
Your precious metals are actually worth something. In nominal dollar terms - who knows what the right valuation number will be? I don't. Then again, I don't really care. It'll all come out in the wash. TS has already HTF. Don't screw yourself by believing the GE-owned media.
Feel the force, Luke. Trust your feelings.
I knew it would happen.
I will advise her to just hang tite for now, knowing that it might not be the most timely thing to do. Any criticisms?
<< <i>Right now I am sitting on about 10K of junk silver that friend of mine's widow said " Just get rid of if". I sold about 1/4 of it at $30 , but don't want to sell in a down market.
I will advise her to just hang tite for now, knowing that it might not be the most timely thing to do. Any criticisms? >>
That's the right approach. Just be patient. This ain't over yet.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Still has a long way to get to 1:1.
I know where I'm still keeping my investments in
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
In 2008 gold corrected 34% and silver around 60%. Did either of those corrections kill the bull market?
The old "standard" of -20% is a bear market might apply to the S&P but I don't see much relevance to commodities or PMs.
roadrunner
<< <i> How much of a "correction" in your opinion, constitutes a bear market?
In 2008 gold corrected 34% and silver around 60%. Did either of those corrections kill the bull market?
The old "standard" of -20% is a bear market might apply to the S&P but I don't see much relevance to commodities or PMs.
roadrunner >>
Let me get this straight....we are not in a PM bear market, but in the "correcting" stage of a downward trending PM bull market.
<< <i>
Let me get this straight....we are not in a PM bear market, but in the "correcting" stage of a downward trending PM bull market.
Yup!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
Let me get this straight....we are not in a PM bear market, but in the "correcting" stage of a downward trending PM bull market.
Yup! >>
Jury is still out if this is a 3-5 year correction inside of a longer term gold bull. Until $730/oz or possibly $681 is taken out, it could still be a bull market. Paper currencies and sovereign debt are in their biggest shakeout in decades. It won't end pretty. Gold might have a thing or two to say about it. A new system in the next 3-10 years has to be anchored to something "real."
When this thread was posted in late Dec 2011, $27 silver was a good buy as it rebounded to $37 in early 2012. It wasn't until April 2013 that it left $27 behind for good.
Gold isnt going that low. But by the same logic the DOW is always in a bull run also, right? The DOW went from 1000 to 12000 then lost a third (about the same as the current gold drop)and traded sideways for 10 years, did you declare the stock market bull still alive in 2003? Last time the DOW lost 2/3rds was 80 years ago. Anyone here remember that? Didnt think so.
Silver obviously crashed, if you want to call it a consolidation (correction) then go right ahead. Maybe now is a better time to buy that 3 years ago. Just think, you'll be up 70% by the time the OP gets back to even.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>But by the same logic the DOW is always in a bull run also, right? The DOW went from 1000 to 12000 then lost a third (about the same as the current gold drop)and traded sideways for 10 years, did you declare the stock market bull still alive in 2003? Last time the DOW lost 2/3rds was 80 years ago. Anyone here remember that? Didnt think so. >>
The Dow's last huge loss in the 1930's was basically a collapse of the monetary standards. We haven't quite had one of those since as the dollar was granted reserve currency status in 1944....though that is we're working towards over these next 10 years. The stock market was essentially dead back in 2000-2003. Yes, it had a dead cat bounce from 2003-2007 on the wings of unbridled QE from the FED Boyz. And the "rally" from 2011-2015 was again on the backs of the FED and $TRILLIONs in monetary injections. They basically circumvented/delayred a typical 60/120 year depression cycle. Is that going to hold? Probably not. The next correction in the SM will probably be 50% or larger. Whether that occurs from 18,000....20,000....or 22-25,000 remains to be seen how much further the bubble can be blow up to. The sheeple are conditioned to >32 years of bullish stock markets.....and prior to 2008....nearly 60 years of bullish housing markets. The housing market is now 7 years into a 25 year correction. Stocks will be next. Treasuries possibly after that....though they seem to be immune from anything over the past 33 years.
Sad but true, so far anyway.
I guess he feels he can "borrow" money with impunity from the BST. A bit ironic, don't you think?
including his opinion !!! :-(