Question on key grading effects on moderns (ASE related)

shorecoll

Does anyone have a theory or stats on what happens when you have a low mintage coin with high percentages in high grades? I know this occurs somewhat in early commems and kills values, but in something like an ASE set, what effect will having 35-50000 sets (35-50%) in 70 have on price differences by grade. I made a joking comment in another thread that a 2011 ASE set run over by a truck would still be rare (relatively). Assuming that these things eventually gain value, will they be priced 10x higher than a common, but each grade point is only worth $50 or so. Example at some future date a common 2011 ASE will be $50, a 2011-S will be worth $500 in 68, $550, in 69, $600 in 70? Thoughts?

I know this might be perceived as part of the ASE discussion but didn't want to bury it or limit it only to ASEs.

19Lyds

High Grade ALWAYS trumps low grade regardless of rarity (populations) primarily because obhviously low grade coins are generally NOT submitted for grading.

When the grades on a specific coin tend to migrate towards the high end of the spectrum, prices usually trend downwards since the premium values for high grade coins of a specific series is directly related to how difficult is is to find a high grade specimen.

As an example, compare the prices on a 1988 SAE in MS70 (Pop 1 - PG $6,000) vs a 2010 SAE in MS70 (Pop 71,608 - PG $90).

Edited to add: Low Mintage Coins with relatively high average grades usually top out at some readily acceptable premium.

Copperguy

High grade is always most important

Gemineye

Here-in lies the theory and dilema of the perfect 70 coin.I spoke of this quite a while ago in that the 70 grade supposedly is a mythical grade.Can there be a perfect 70 coin.
Well with the mints technology today the coins sure are better struck than 100 years ao.Collectors and TPG's are not satisfied with coins in best possible grage of 69...Sooo what do you do..?? Make em "70" Perfect..!! Hey go even better ..call em "First Strike or First Release "...you want more..?? Well you can't .
..70 was supposed to be Perfect...Well now it ain't....
just my 2 cents...

ricko

Like anything else, availability drives prices lower.... scarcity commands a premium. Moderns do go through a price cycle though, high at intitial offering... higher during the fever acquisition.... then the price becomes flat for a while... then decreases to a level of stability, usually dictated by the market. Cheers, RickO

JohnMaben

Using your assumption that 35% to 50% are 70's does not translate into an equal number (of the total mintage) of NGC/PCGS GRADED 70 sets in the marketplace. While it may be obvious to most, just wanted to add this pointing out the reason; that many still choose not to have their coins graded.

John

illini420

Higher grade is always better and worth more to rational collectors. I've seen a few exceptions to that, but only when someone is really trying for a specific grade to make a matching set and overspends (in other words, being irrational). You can always take a higher grade coin and make it a lower grade if you really wanted to do so