could the eruo become. . .

derryb

. . . the world currency?

Possibly, If Merkel wins the bet

jmski52

I don't think that Merkel can stay the course politically long enough for the Euro to perform as Schiff suggests it could. I think he's right about most everything else.

Everyone in the entire world is trying to figure out what will hold its value.

derryb

<< <i>I don't think that Merkel can stay the course politically long enough for the Euro to perform as Schiff suggests it could. >>


I agree, the debtmasters will never allow it.



<< <i>Everyone in the entire world is trying to figure out what will hold its value. >>


But we here have a pretty good idea.

KUCH

What will hold it's value? FAMILY, Individual Hard Work, and Land when one buys at the height of the next crash.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

mhammerman

One could make the argument that there are and will be so many dollars and possibly Yuans that have gone into keeping the Euro and European Central Banks in play that the Euro will become the defacto world currency simply because the foreign banks have made such a large fiscal buy-in just to keep it alive. If the Euro dies or even has a significant pull back in users then the dominoes of world currencies begin to fall and a new world will be upon us, a kind of economic YOYO. The non Euro, large CBs have way too much invested to let the Euro fail but by the same token, they have so much invested that the Euro also represents the dollar and the Yuan so we will have a new world currency regardless of the opinions of the pundits.

The thing that escapes most of these lofty discussions is at the bottom end of this pile of international currencies; the people that go to work every day. It seems that there is nobody that is doing anything to assure the solvency or financial security of the worker bees. In a major turn around, it would be refreshing to see some discussion other than this international financial guru circle jer- that is on the financial pages, ad nauseum, be exchanged for some discussion of how the working stiff can opt out of being the pawn via taxation and have some say in the process.

I'm calling for the spotlight to leave academia, banking, and government as they obviously have little but self interest in these plans and for the spotlight to shift in the direction of helping and advising the working base that actually keeps these fiat exchanges for labor and goods and services working in the first place. If there is not a greater effort to bring the workers into this equation right now then the European riots and US occupy resistance will be a fairy tale compared to what is to come...let them eat cake, indeed.

The money exchange for goods and labor work well, as long as someone is willing to take the exchange. Commerce begins with that $1 that gets exchanged for something, not the exchange rate of the Euro with the Dollar.

Baley

Everyone in the entire world is trying to figure out what will hold its value.

I disagree.

Probably 95% of the people in the world wouldn't even understand what you mean

cohodk

<< <i>. . . the world currency?

Possibly, If Merkel wins the bet >>



No. Europe has poor demographics.



force the rest of the world to cancel our reserve currency privileges. The loss may give Americans a profound appreciation of this concept.

Reserve currency status is a VASTLY overrated concept. Shiff knows that.

derryb

<< <i>

<< <i>. . . the world currency?

Possibly, If Merkel wins the bet >>



No. Europe has poor demographics. >>


And the US dollar has brilliant economic policy makers.
Merkel seems prepared to fight kicking the can down the road and if successful she could turn the tables on the long term outlook of the eruo. We already see the long term outlook for the $US. A win by Merkel could determine much more than a short term outcome for the euro. This is an important battle with huge implications.

cohodk

And the US dollar has brilliant economic policy makers

Having poor policy makers is an easily fixable problem. Having poor demographics is not.

derryb

<< <i>And the US dollar has brilliant economic policy makers

Having poor policy makers is an easily fixable >>


Why haven't you fixed it?

US has its own demographic problems in the form of near bankrupt states that, like european nations, are not able to print their way out of it, but will soon be screeming for national bailout. Demographics has nothing to do with a failed/successful currency. Central policy is everything. EU has a slight advantage in that any individual country can cut and run whereas succession by a US state brings. . .well, we've been there before.



<< <i>Reserve currency status is a VASTLY overrated concept. Shiff knows that. >>


Requiring others to need your currency on the world stage is far from overated, it pretty much keeps the dollar in demand. The fact that foreign leaders, who attempt to move away from the dollar in exchange for their oil, somehow end up dead indicates the importance of keeping it at the top of the list.

cohodk

I guess you're right. We're all doomed.

I give up. Anybody want my dollars?

Kd5ddo

<< <i>I guess you're right. We're all doomed.

I give up. Anybody want my dollars? >>



Well, if your throwing them away and all... I guess I can take them off your hands for ya. :-)

mhammerman

"I disagree.

Probably 95% of the people in the world wouldn't even understand what you mean"

Hummmmmm...idonno. When Greece's President wanted to take their debt to a public referendum, the banksters freaked out. The banksters couldn't allow the Greek people to decide their fate because the stupid populace might opt to not fund their debt and just let the thing go belly up instead of enslaving their grandchildren into a lifetime of high taxation. Next thing you know, the Prime Minister Papandreou is resigned. In the eyes of the banksters they had 'em bent over and that's just the way they like their working class.

Edited to add: It would be very interesting if there were some kind of economic referendum on the ballot for next November in the US. Wonder how it would go if the constituency could actually vote on how much of what they were actually on board with funding via taxation. Talk about a bankster freak out...The horror, the horror.

derryb

<< <i>When Greece's President wanted to take their debt to a public referendum, the banksters freaked out. The banksters couldn't allow the Greek people to decide their fate because the stupid populace might opt to not fund their debt and just let the thing go belly up instead of enslaving their grandchildren into a lifetime of high taxation. In the eyes of the banksters they had 'em bent over and that's just the way they like their working class. >>


And then the banksters put one of their own in charge of Greece. Convenient.

Spooly

<< <i>"I disagree.

Probably 95% of the people in the world wouldn't even understand what you mean"

Hummmmmm...idonno. When Greece's President wanted to take their debt to a public referendum, the banksters freaked out. The banksters couldn't allow the Greek people to decide their fate because the stupid populace might opt to not fund their debt and just let the thing go belly up instead of enslaving their grandchildren into a lifetime of high taxation. Next thing you know, the Prime Minister Papandreou is resigned. In the eyes of the banksters they had 'em bent over and that's just the way they like their working class.

Edited to add: It would be very interesting if there were some kind of economic referendum on the ballot for next November in the US. Wonder how it would go if the constituency could actually vote on how much of what they were actually on board with funding via taxation. Talk about a bankster freak out...The horror, the horror. >>




Iceland voted.... NO! The Bankster will not allow any more votes!

Frankcoins

I think the Euro was an impossible idea from the start, and that it will eventually be segmented by region or even discarded in favor of the original country's currencies. To think that the very different political and financial cultures of Germany compared to Greece could have these different countries use the same currency which had to be accepted by their partners. And force bailouts to spendthrift countries to keep their own economies afloat. Fairer to all to have each country's currency rise or fall in relative value based on each country's discipline to financial stability.

derryb

euro is convenient for countries using it. Without it, it would be like travelling to different US states, each with its own currency.

One of two thing will happen: Most likely euro system will collapse - if it doesn't, it could very well become stronger, especially if those faced with doing the bailing out refuse to turn up the printing press.

Spooly

derryb, have you read "Currency Wars" yet?

derryb

on my to do list.

Kd5ddo

There are a couple of things about the Euro that is a bit odd to me.

In order to be a part of the 'club' you had to have you finances meet a set number of criteria. Debt to GDP being one of the many criteria of the treaty. Yet if you then fail to maintain the same standards that got you into the club, you now have the power to hinder your peers.

This comes into play because although they all use the same currency, they maintain their own fiscal sovereignty and can make fiscal choices at will without the need to maintain the same standards that got them into the 'club' in the first place.

Why can't a country be kicked out of the club if they fait to meet the same criteria that got them there in the first place? If the EU had the ability (and exercised it) to kick out another country for fiscal irresponsibility, wouldn't that strengthen the Euro in the eyes of the world?

BigRick

No way (although it is probably almost as widely accepted as the USD - except of course here in America ).

KUCH

Chinese Yuan

The sooner the better. Or how bout the Mexican Peso!

Third choice.... India!

Kd5ddo

The euro can still save itself if they play they cappy hand right. Of course that'll take more stones that most would be willing to put on the table... This is going to be an interesting next 6 months for the Euro for sure.

Coyn

I once heard a guy describe the fiat of the dollar and Euro.
The dollar was "America owes you....Nothing."
The Euro was "Who?? owes you ....Nothing"

Back in 05-06, Sciff was one of those predicting a financial disaster. He said the dollar and the US would be in major collapse while Europe and the rest of the world would sail above it all. I moved a lot into gold(not based on his advice) and kept a lot in Euro stocks etc(based on his advice). I decided quickly he was wrong and Euro zone would fall too. Glad I got out of my Euro stocks too.

He a smart guy, but not always 100% right.

ricko

Having lived and worked in Europe, I never believed this Euro-union would work. They are not inclined to work together. Of course, the financial state of the U.S. is not remarkably better - and hard times are ahead. I believe the Euro will collapse... many countries will either opt out of the union or be dismissed. The individuals have never really liked each other and still don't. Cheers, RickO

GoldClause

The Euro will survive and expand, as will the EU. No way they'll let this collapse even if doing so is the better option.

pf70collector

The fed backstops the ECB. The Fed will not allow the ECB to pull the strings.