Home U.S. Coin Forum

2011 anniversary set potential value analysis

2»

Comments

  • Folks, Think about this set for more than 1 minute. 100K minted of the S coin and the RP.......Say for example 40 percent of the sets will remain sealed and unopened (no actual knowledge of such) say 40 percent will be sent in for grading (again no actual knowledge of these numbers).....That would leave 20 percent (20,000 sets) to be traded among 200K collectors in raw form.............say that half 100K want only graded coins...........There simply will not be enough product to meet demand...........Those that need these coins for a collection or registry set will pay whatever they have to pay to own this set!.........Look for values closer to the W coin that had a mintage of only 30K........and a full 5-70 set in first strike mode (if available) should go upwards of 10K............There is an old saying get in first and get out first...........but I am not convinced getting out first is the way to max profit.....although surely a way to have a nice Christmas............good luck too all that have sets inbound and let demand dictate pricing and supply..........The mint could have easily sold 250K of these sets.............but they didn't!..........Kinda reminds me of tickle me elmo from a few years backimage
  • Well said and I agree with your 40% numbers based on what happened to the 2006 anniversary set in terms of teh numbers that got graded. Really, no one has a realistic number where these will settle. If promoters start buying these up on ebay to inflate prices then that will be a big plus. My estimates are in teh $1000 range for raw sets within 3 months with a plus minus of $200. I think to maximize the value of these sets you need to send in at least 5 sets to pcgs or ngc and get the first strike labels. With the law of averages you should get 1 rv proof 70 and 1 "s" 70, along with 70's for 2 of the 3 other coins. A first strike 70 set should bring around $2000 to $3000 in the first few months and of course it will also depend on what the pop reports are doing in terms of 70's relative to 69's. Once again, send in 5 sets you should basically have 1 set of 70's and the rest 69's. The 69's shoudl fetch around $900, so times 4 that is $3600, plus your 70 set which should bring around $2000 to $3000, not bad for a $1500 investment plus about $500 in grading fees.

  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well said and I agree with your 40% numbers based on what happened to the 2006 anniversary set in terms of teh numbers that got graded. Really, no one has a realistic number where these will settle. If promoters start buying these up on ebay to inflate prices then that will be a big plus. My estimates are in teh $1000 range for raw sets within 3 months with a plus minus of $200. I think to maximize the value of these sets you need to send in at least 5 sets to pcgs or ngc and get the first strike labels. With the law of averages you should get 1 rv proof 70 and 1 "s" 70, along with 70's for 2 of the 3 other coins. A first strike 70 set should bring around $2000 to $3000 in the first few months and of course it will also depend on what the pop reports are doing in terms of 70's relative to 69's. Once again, send in 5 sets you should basically have 1 set of 70's and the rest 69's. The 69's shoudl fetch around $900, so times 4 that is $3600, plus your 70 set which should bring around $2000 to $3000, not bad for a $1500 investment plus about $500 in grading fees. >>



    I agree, all 5 sets of mine will go to PCGS for grading. I hope to get one complete 70 set which I will sell to pay for the all my costs and just keep the other 4 sets.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • hammer1hammer1 Posts: 3,874 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well said and I agree with your 40% numbers based on what happened to the 2006 anniversary set in terms of teh numbers that got graded. Really, no one has a realistic number where these will settle. If promoters start buying these up on ebay to inflate prices then that will be a big plus. My estimates are in teh $1000 range for raw sets within 3 months with a plus minus of $200. I think to maximize the value of these sets you need to send in at least 5 sets to pcgs or ngc and get the first strike labels. With the law of averages you should get 1 rv proof 70 and 1 "s" 70, along with 70's for 2 of the 3 other coins. A first strike 70 set should bring around $2000 to $3000 in the first few months and of course it will also depend on what the pop reports are doing in terms of 70's relative to 69's. Once again, send in 5 sets you should basically have 1 set of 70's and the rest 69's. The 69's shoudl fetch around $900, so times 4 that is $3600, plus your 70 set which should bring around $2000 to $3000, not bad for a $1500 investment plus about $500 in grading fees. >>



    Taking your low of the 70 set as $2000 +$3600 for the four 69's equals $5600 minus $2000 for inital cost plus grading leaves a profit of $3600. Versus your numbers of $900 for a raw X 5 = $4500 minus $1500 cost leaves a profit of $3000. So if you don't pull a full set of 70's, you would've made more selling raw, correct?
  • 53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,174 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Well said and I agree with your 40% numbers based on what happened to the 2006 anniversary set in terms of teh numbers that got graded. Really, no one has a realistic number where these will settle. If promoters start buying these up on ebay to inflate prices then that will be a big plus. My estimates are in teh $1000 range for raw sets within 3 months with a plus minus of $200. I think to maximize the value of these sets you need to send in at least 5 sets to pcgs or ngc and get the first strike labels. With the law of averages you should get 1 rv proof 70 and 1 "s" 70, along with 70's for 2 of the 3 other coins. A first strike 70 set should bring around $2000 to $3000 in the first few months and of course it will also depend on what the pop reports are doing in terms of 70's relative to 69's. Once again, send in 5 sets you should basically have 1 set of 70's and the rest 69's. The 69's shoudl fetch around $900, so times 4 that is $3600, plus your 70 set which should bring around $2000 to $3000, not bad for a $1500 investment plus about $500 in grading fees. >>



    Taking your low of the 70 set as $2000 +$3600 for the four 69's equals $5600 minus $2000 for inital cost plus grading leaves a profit of $3600. Versus your numbers of $900 for a raw X 5 = $4500 minus $1500 cost leaves a profit of $3000. So if you don't pull a full set of 70's, you would've made more selling raw, correct? >>



    One side or another of this equation is bound to be off quite a bit. The 69 sets will ultimately price quite a bit higher than $900, IMO, the RP and -W will sell for more than that alone.
    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>We will see but $1500 is a lot of money for a $300 set. >>




    I do not think we can refer to these as a $300 set.


    At one time, they cost $300. That time is gone.


    At one time, Apple sold for $7.37 a share. IBM sold for $100. On and on...


    What something once sold for has no relation to what it sells for now.


    Today these are $550-$600 sets....tomorrow they could be more or they could be less. But what they were yesterday is irrelevant!


    --Edward >>



    550 or 600 is a long way away from 1500.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • With pre-sales on e-bay getting 86'd the price IN-HAND is surely going to increase..............5 sets 3 sets 1 set it will not matter!..........(yes for those that wonder I do have a horse in this race or 2).........watching the message boards to get a final idea what to price sets at when they do arrive.......as I am sure some others are doing...............maybe would like to hear from the bulk buyers if they feel they will get quanity in their pre-buys............
  • tander123tander123 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭
    I wouldn't be too quick to sell. I was glad I held to a box of the 25th Anniversary several months after the release. I sold it for about $8500!
    Excellent BST board members who complete their deals: WONDERCOIN, DABIGKAHUNA, GEMSTATECOINS, FIVECENTS, SILVEREAGLES92, NEWMISMATIST, GTOster, SCHMITZ7,
  • itsnotjustmeitsnotjustme Posts: 8,779 ✭✭✭
    I just say "THANK YOU" for another gift from the mint.... 2006 all over again, but smaller scale.

    Give Blood (Red Bags) & Platelets (Yellow Bags)!
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,713 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I can recall when people were clamoring to spend $400 on a $20 Delaware FDC so imagining these sets selling for $1,500 isn't too difficult. Whether that happens remains to be seen but I'd bet the value will be a lot closer to $1,500 than to $300..


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • raycycaraycyca Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭
    Since being a purchaser and still owner of both the 2006 gold and silver sets, and, having confirmed orders for the 25th sets, here's my guess. Everyone thinks that Christmas will bring a huge jump in price. Not so. Didn't happen then, won't happen now. People need money for other items, food, insurance, gifts, gas for cars/heating, etc. The 2006's sold high at first issue, especially at pre-sales. Then took a dip. Months later, came back, but, not nearly like people here are saying. Leveled off, then dropped quite a bit as people got bored/moved on. Granted these have a lower mintage, but, the same mentality will prevail. I believe for the first month they will go for about $800-900 tops. Except for a VERY few desperate individuals (presellers?) Come Jan 15th, back to $600 level for awhile, then dropping to 450-475 for quite some time. These are for unopened sets. Opened sets will go for less, about 15% less. Graded sets will go for more in 70, probably $1800. 69's will bring $850-950 for about 4-5 months. Then people will move on to the next big thing. Only sold one set of each for the 2006's, others were given away for Christmas gifts to a few friends. My unopened boxes will remain sealed like the others. I'll see what they look like when the new owners eagerly rip open the sets, they will be kept in their sets, not graded. A gift of love with a little help of the US mint again this year. THANKS! Congrats to all whom were lucky enough to obtain their sets for their collection, and NOT to be a flipper. To those flippers: beware, E-bay is watching, as are other board members. This is meant as a warning to PRE-SELLERS on E-bay. After in hand, all's far in love and war. I hope this clarifies things.
    You only live life once, enjoy it like it's your last day. It just MIGHT be!

    image


  • << <i> To those flippers: beware, E-bay is watching, as are other board members. >>



    What does that even mean? So many people here use eBay as a means to sell. Presales, I get it...but legit, in-hand sales? I'm unsure what you mean by your comment.


  • << <i> ...then dropping to 450-475 for quite some time. These are for unopened sets... >>



    If sealed sets drop to $450 for quite some time....................I'd be shocked. Could happen of course, but I'd be shocked. image


  • << <i>I agree, all 5 sets of mine will go to PCGS for grading. I hope to get one complete 70 set which I will sell to pay for the all my costs and just keep the other 4 sets. >>



    I was thinking about this option also. Are you figuring about $900 in total grading costs for the 5 sets? That's my estimate, I haven't calculated it yet. image


  • << <i>

    << <i>I agree, all 5 sets of mine will go to PCGS for grading. I hope to get one complete 70 set which I will sell to pay for the all my costs and just keep the other 4 sets. >>



    I was thinking about this option also. Are you figuring about $900 in total grading costs for the 5 sets? That's my estimate, I haven't calculated it yet. image >>



    Try $567.95+shipping to PCGS.

    PS: That's my plan/hope as well. "One 70 set to rule them all...."


  • << <i>Try $567.95+shipping to PCGS >>



    I like that number! I'm in!

    Does that include First Strike labeling on the 10 eligble pieces and 25th Anniversary Set labeling on all 25?
  • commacomma Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Since being a purchaser and still owner of both the 2006 gold and silver sets, and, having confirmed orders for the 25th sets, here's my guess. Everyone thinks that Christmas will bring a huge jump in price. Not so. Didn't happen then, won't happen now. People need money for other items, food, insurance, gifts, gas for cars/heating, etc. The 2006's sold high at first issue, especially at pre-sales. Then took a dip. Months later, came back, but, not nearly like people here are saying. Leveled off, then dropped quite a bit as people got bored/moved on. Granted these have a lower mintage, but, the same mentality will prevail. I believe for the first month they will go for about $800-900 tops. Except for a VERY few desperate individuals (presellers?) Come Jan 15th, back to $600 level for awhile, then dropping to 450-475 for quite some time. These are for unopened sets. Opened sets will go for less, about 15% less. Graded sets will go for more in 70, probably $1800. 69's will bring $850-950 for about 4-5 months. Then people will move on to the next big thing. Only sold one set of each for the 2006's, others were given away for Christmas gifts to a few friends. My unopened boxes will remain sealed like the others. I'll see what they look like when the new owners eagerly rip open the sets, they will be kept in their sets, not graded. A gift of love with a little help of the US mint again this year. THANKS! Congrats to all whom were lucky enough to obtain their sets for their collection, and NOT to be a flipper. To those flippers: beware, E-bay is watching, as are other board members. This is meant as a warning to PRE-SELLERS on E-bay. After in hand, all's far in love and war. I hope this clarifies things. >>



    Except that these certainly can fall into the gifts category...and Christmas is the one time of year where people over-extend themselves and spend frivolously. Christmas certainly won't hurt the sale of these in the next 2 months. (when they are in hand and people aren't just selling the idea of them on ebay)
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,040 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << Come Jan 15th, back to $600 level for awhile, then dropping to 450-475 for quite some time. These are for unopened sets. Opened sets will go for less, about 15% less. >>

    That would put the price of opened sets at $385-$405. IMO there's *no* chance that they'll go that low. The 3-coin 2006 sets already fetch $320, with 2 1/2 times the mintage of the 5-coin 2011 sets. The 2011 sets have two key coins with 100,000 mintage each, that will be in heavy demand as singles and will cause numerous sets to be broken up. I expect opened 2011 sets to stabilize next year at no lower than $750, and possibly much higher.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • Coin FinderCoin Finder Posts: 7,213 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with Overdate. The true question is...will there be buyers?
  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,462 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hard to believe that 5 oz. of silver will sell for several hundred.
    For that matter, I can't belive I payed nearly double spot for a set.


    EDIT: <<I agree with Overdate. The true question is...will there be buyers? >>
    That's the flip side, you can't eat anniversary sets. Gov't tells us UE is 9.2%, Druge
    tells us UE is closer to 25%. I'll go with the closer to 25%, seeing the Gov't doesn't count
    those who lost benefits or just gave up looking for employment.
    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • DCWDCW Posts: 7,421 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Hard to believe that 5 oz. of silver will sell for several hundred."

    Now, why is that so hard to believe? It's numismatics. Does not the 1995-w ASE sell for over $3000? That's an ounce of silver or approximately 100 times melt.

    Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
    "Coin collecting for outcasts..."

  • ajmanajman Posts: 1,359 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Since being a purchaser and still owner of both the 2006 gold and silver sets, and, having confirmed orders for the 25th sets, here's my guess. Everyone thinks that Christmas will bring a huge jump in price. Not so. Didn't happen then, won't happen now. People need money for other items, food, insurance, gifts, gas for cars/heating, etc. The 2006's sold high at first issue, especially at pre-sales. Then took a dip. Months later, came back, but, not nearly like people here are saying. Leveled off, then dropped quite a bit as people got bored/moved on. Granted these have a lower mintage, but, the same mentality will prevail. I believe for the first month they will go for about $800-900 tops. Except for a VERY few desperate individuals (presellers?) Come Jan 15th, back to $600 level for awhile, then dropping to 450-475 for quite some time. These are for unopened sets. Opened sets will go for less, about 15% less. Graded sets will go for more in 70, probably $1800. 69's will bring $850-950 for about 4-5 months. Then people will move on to the next big thing. Only sold one set of each for the 2006's, others were given away for Christmas gifts to a few friends. My unopened boxes will remain sealed like the others. I'll see what they look like when the new owners eagerly rip open the sets, they will be kept in their sets, not graded. A gift of love with a little help of the US mint again this year. THANKS! Congrats to all whom were lucky enough to obtain their sets for their collection, and NOT to be a flipper. To those flippers: beware, E-bay is watching, as are other board members. This is meant as a warning to PRE-SELLERS on E-bay. After in hand, all's far in love and war. I hope this clarifies things. >>

    I think you're way off base in what the future holds for these 2011 sets. If this is any indication of what these might bring in the future, at over 7x issue price I'll be keeping my sets sealed for a few years.
    Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
  • Build it and they will come!........There will be NO shortage of buyers for this set. Every person who has witnessed the most recent mint offerings of limited quanity can attest to that..........The only work involved here is figuring where the sets will peak (and they will)..........and for the high sellers figuring out when to get back in and buy more sets. This is one of the most exciting offerings because of the limited mintage of 2 coins........people will find the money to buy at least one set for themselves (and bring some of the family into the mix)............Those that have mint orders pending of course will be in the best position but the chain of sales will not end there (not by a long shot).......as for a settle price when the dust clears..........????............It should be a great Christmas!!!
  • 53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,174 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Since being a purchaser and still owner of both the 2006 gold and silver sets, and, having confirmed orders for the 25th sets, here's my guess. Everyone thinks that Christmas will bring a huge jump in price. Not so. Didn't happen then, won't happen now. People need money for other items, food, insurance, gifts, gas for cars/heating, etc. The 2006's sold high at first issue, especially at pre-sales. Then took a dip. Months later, came back, but, not nearly like people here are saying. Leveled off, then dropped quite a bit as people got bored/moved on. Granted these have a lower mintage, but, the same mentality will prevail. I believe for the first month they will go for about $800-900 tops. Except for a VERY few desperate individuals (presellers?) Come Jan 15th, back to $600 level for awhile, then dropping to 450-475 for quite some time. These are for unopened sets. Opened sets will go for less, about 15% less. Graded sets will go for more in 70, probably $1800. 69's will bring $850-950 for about 4-5 months. Then people will move on to the next big thing. Only sold one set of each for the 2006's, others were given away for Christmas gifts to a few friends. My unopened boxes will remain sealed like the others. I'll see what they look like when the new owners eagerly rip open the sets, they will be kept in their sets, not graded. A gift of love with a little help of the US mint again this year. THANKS! Congrats to all whom were lucky enough to obtain their sets for their collection, and NOT to be a flipper. To those flippers: beware, E-bay is watching, as are other board members. This is meant as a warning to PRE-SELLERS on E-bay. After in hand, all's far in love and war. I hope this clarifies things. >>




    Not exactly accurate. The sets moved up in presales for a week or so, and then softened in price until deliveries. Once people had them in hand, they went up substantially. They moved up further once coins began grading. Prices for the graded coins went through the roof in the first couple of weeks and then settled down quite a bit. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I believe once the W and RP show moon money for 70s the unopened set price will become quite a bit higher than the $800-900 range. I seriously doubt well ever see $450-75 range again.
    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
  • drei3reedrei3ree Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i> I seriously doubt well ever see $450-75 range again. >>



    Without a doubt! The S & RP will easily be $500 each RAW.
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i> I seriously doubt well ever see $450-75 range again. >>



    Without a doubt! The S & RP will easily be $500 each RAW. >>



    Please be right, please be right, please be rightimage
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,672 ✭✭✭
    Don't forget a lot of collectors were shut out on this set. No so with the 2006's. The 2006s were on sale for weeks. Very slow sellout. I will sell to cover initial costs of my sets and keep the rest sealed. No grading.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    guys
    20th anniversary silver sets in FS/PR70 DCAM (remember, not until later was the burnished coin graded 70........69's only) were bringing huge money in the early days, several thousand a set.
    btw, did you see the price on NGC 70's for the 2011 set in CW this week? $4G's.
    so $1G for a complete 70 set, waaaaaaaayyyyy low.
  • Since we are speculating, allow me to add my 2¢.
    The lucky winners of the Mint's lottery should start receiving their coins around Thanksgiving, leaving precious little time to get their sets graded and on eBay in time for Xmas.
    Raw sets on eBay will probably sell in the $600-$700 range at first.
    Then the graded sets will depress the price of the raw sets but that won't be until after Xmas.
    As more and more sets hit eBay, the price will dip to $500 range.
    A year from now, they prices will probably be in the $700 range for raw. $800-$900 for MS69, and mad money for a set of 70's.


  • << <i>

    << <i>Try $567.95+shipping to PCGS >>



    I like that number! I'm in!

    Does that include First Strike labeling on the 10 eligble pieces and 25th Anniversary Set labeling on all 25? >>



    Yes. However, now PCGS said that all coins are eligible for FS designation. So tack on another $270.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,672 ✭✭✭
    Hard to believe that 5 oz. of silver will sell for several hundred.

    Some one posted a link on the ebay auction of a sealed 2006 Anniversary set at $700. So it is holding its price in 06 close to $900 a sealed set. A raw set opened today is only around $300-350.
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Hard to believe that 5 oz. of silver will sell for several hundred.

    Some one posted a link on the ebay auction of a sealed 2006 Anniversary set at $700. So it is holding its price in 06 close to $900 a sealed set. A raw set opened today is only around $300-350. >>



    Sealed makes a difference for all of the 2006 anniversary issues. Try finding a sealed AGE Set. Particularly FS eligible.

    For many collectors, they want the experience of being the first to strike on the opening of the package.

    Now, for this issue, even more important as it was VERY difficult to get single or double sealed sets with the order chaos.

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file