Tulip Mania in the coin market
Hayden
Posts: 112
I'm tempted to (but won't) sell some 25th anniversary sets on eBay at the current price and buy them in two weeks when it's time to ship. This is going to tank once the speculators exit the market. 100k sets is a lot when you consider how many people will actually want to own one of these, especially once the initial excitement wears off. This is a classic case of tulip mania. Would make an interesting case study.
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And, if you want to see some serious Tulip Mania, just wait until the first few 70 sets are available...I saw one prediction already of $20,000. Probably a bit high, but $12,000 to $15,000 might be possible.
But you're right: This will be an interesting case study...
You have no way of knowing that, you are the one speculating
<<< 100k sets is a lot when you consider how many people will actually want to own on of these >>>
Current levels are telling you that a LOT of people want to own a set.
<<< especially once the initial excitement wears off. >>>
You have no way of knowing whether it will wear off, stay steady, or even intensify.
<<< This is a classic case of tulip mania. >>>
Not really a good comparison, many differences.
Eric
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>"I saw one prediction already of $20,000. Probably a bit high, but $12,000 to $15,000 might be possible." >>
Prices that high just because a mass-produced bullion piece makes it into a holder with a label with the number 70 on it? Are there enough crazy people around to make that happen?
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
The best analogy is that the sets are like a pack of sports cards. People will go nuts buying them unopened because there could be an MS70 gem in it. Once all/most of the packs are opened and the MS70's reach a market equilibrium, only then will the mania start to subside. Funniest thing is, I don't think anyone other than the most experienced modern bullion graders can tell the difference between an MS69 and MS70. So many people will pay huge money hoping to hit that home run.. When they don't even know what the home run looks like. It's essentially just gambling.
Of all things the future is by far the hardest to predict.
Can you even imagine what would happen if silver shot far higher as these were
starting to peak! Not only would prices be driven far higher yet but it would drag
along the last 25 years of issues with them.
Of course the bottom line is that at the current time 100,000 is a substantial mint-
age that sould assure supplies are ample for years yet but all this interest can't be
too hard on the older eagles.
For most people it's wise to sit out but if you can have fun with these then more pow-
er to you.
As for tulips, my wife thinks the entire rare coin market is nothing but.
WOW! I can sure think of a lot better coins to buy at the levels you think they will reach! I have never understood the market of what I consider modern BS! Of course I am a puriest and like older...IMO much more collectable coins!
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#1 1951 Bowman Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#2 1980 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#8 (and climbing) 1972 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Seriously, I'd like to know what everyone thinks is a solid but not crazy price per set?
<< <i>do tulips get milk spots? >>
No; but at the time, Tulips which were infected with the "tulip breaking virus" were even more desirable. Too bad ASEs infected with milk spots aren't more valuable.
<< <i>Seriously, I'd like to know what everyone thinks is a solid but not crazy price per set? >>
I would also like to know. Maybe it's time for another thread
Ben
Ben
<< <i>Were still waiting for the tulips to be harvested out of the ground and shipped before the mania starts.
Actually this is about right. The tulip mania was over the bulbs, not the flowers themselves.
Really?
Because this series doesn't have a big enough collector base?
Proof Uncirc
1995-W 30,125 -
1996 500,000 -
1997 435,368 -
1998 450,000 -
1999 549,796 -
2000 600,000 -
2001 746,398 -
2002 647,342 -
2003 747,831 -
2004 801,602 -
2005 816,663 -
2006 1,092,477 466,573
2007 821,759 621,333
2008 700,979 533,757
2009 Not offered Not offered
2010 860,000 Not offered
Nope, collector base is huge, regularly selling hundreds of thousands of each years issue.
How about comparing it to the 2006 set? Hmm, 250k sets sold, original issue price $100, current price around $300.
How about that 1995, 30k mintage one? It's worth thousands.
Nope, not getting the comparison to tulips. This is the second smallest issue in a tremendously popular series.
Unless the price of silver crashes....Let the mania continue!
-Keith
<< <i>I think history is a pretty good indicator of some serious tulip mania going on. Sure, a few people will make money for a while flipping and trading them, but then a whole bunch of people will lose their butts when they crash. It may be speculation, but that doesn't make it any less true. >>
If you're using history as an indicator, these will never "crash". The last anniversary set is now worth at least around $300, 3x it's original purchase cost. Which means if history repeats itself, these will settle at 3x their sell price ($900), FAR from a crash...
<< <i>> This is going to tank once the speculators exit the market. 100k sets is a lot when you consider how many people will actually want to own one of these, especially once the initial excitement wears off. > This is a classic case of tulip mania.
Really?
Because this series doesn't have a big enough collector base?
Proof Uncirc
1995-W 30,125 -
1996 500,000 -
1997 435,368 -
1998 450,000 -
1999 549,796 -
2000 600,000 -
2001 746,398 -
2002 647,342 -
2003 747,831 -
2004 801,602 -
2005 816,663 -
2006 1,092,477 466,573
2007 821,759 621,333
2008 700,979 533,757
2009 Not offered Not offered
2010 860,000 Not offered
Nope, collector base is huge, regularly selling hundreds of thousands of each years issue.
How about comparing it to the 2006 set? Hmm, 250k sets sold, original issue price $100, current price around $300.
How about that 1995, 30k mintage one? It's worth thousands.
Nope, not getting the comparison to tulips. This is the second smallest issue in a tremendously popular series.
Unless the price of silver crashes....Let the mania continue!
-Keith >>
All true, and all real ase history to compare this to...
<< <i>
<< <i>I think history is a pretty good indicator of some serious tulip mania going on. Sure, a few people will make money for a while flipping and trading them, but then a whole bunch of people will lose their butts when they crash. It may be speculation, but that doesn't make it any less true. >>
If you're using history as an indicator, these will never "crash". The last anniversary set is now worth at least around $300, 3x it's original purchase cost. Which means if history repeats itself, these will settle at 3x their sell price ($900), FAR from a crash... >>
The tulip market didn't crash until it crashed. I feel the comparison is appropriate due to the fact that the tulips were traded in bulb form for the beauty and rarity of the flower, even if no flower became of those bulbs (they store well), essentially the trading of forward contracts of blooming flowers in the future. Right now that is how this market is behaving. Prices keep rising for the rights to the coins, not the actual physical coins. It may not crash once they are delivered, but it doesn't mean the two markets don't share certain characteristics.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think history is a pretty good indicator of some serious tulip mania going on. Sure, a few people will make money for a while flipping and trading them, but then a whole bunch of people will lose their butts when they crash. It may be speculation, but that doesn't make it any less true. >>
If you're using history as an indicator, these will never "crash". The last anniversary set is now worth at least around $300, 3x it's original purchase cost. Which means if history repeats itself, these will settle at 3x their sell price ($900), FAR from a crash... >>
The tulip market didn't crash until it crashed. I feel the comparison is appropriate due to the fact that the tulips were traded in bulb form for the beauty and rarity of the flower, even if no flower became of those bulbs (they store well), essentially the trading of forward contracts of blooming flowers in the future. Right now that is how this market is behaving. Prices keep rising for the rights to the coins, not the actual physical coins. It may not crash once they are delivered, but it doesn't mean the two markets don't share certain characteristics. >>
I see what you're saying.
Just don't understand how in this instance (with the ase's) their demand would "crash" once coins are in hand. Can't see how it wouldn't continue to rise actually. The same people will want the coins, and be more willing to pay to get them. The people paying 1k a set now are paying for someone's word they have a set. Why would they pay LESS for the real thing in hand? Doesn't make sense...
But then again, I have only seen commem trends from the sideines, and as far as purchasing (or wanting to purchase), these are my first experience with the mint
<< <i>How about that 1995, 30k mintage one? It's worth thousands.
Nope, not getting the comparison to tulips. >>
Why the 1995 ASE W is worth thousands is beyond me. 30K is a lot of coins, especially when they're all in pristine condition. You hear that same ol, same ol, oh but there's a huge collector base of ASE folks. Yet, there are no less than (30) of them for sale on fleeBay right now with virtually no interest. And lets put this into perspective, paying $3300 for an ASE is like paying $160K for an AGE
<< <i>
<< <i>How about that 1995, 30k mintage one? It's worth thousands.
Nope, not getting the comparison to tulips. >>
Why the 1995 ASE W is worth thousands is beyond me. 30K is a lot of coins, especially when they're all in pristine condition. You hear that same ol, same ol, oh but there's a huge collector base of ASE folks. Yet, there are no less than (30) of them for sale on fleeBay right now with virtually no interest. And lets put this into perspective, paying $3300 for an ASE is like paying $160K for an AGE
I only count 8 1995-W's on Ebay and the seem to be selling for $3K.
<< <i>do tulips get milk spots? >>
No powdery mildew and rot
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>
<< <i>Were still waiting for the tulips to be harvested out of the ground and shipped before the mania starts.
Actually this is about right. The tulip mania was over the bulbs, not the flowers themselves.
you mean..you mean...spec....speculation on the actions and Opinions of others????!!!
Eric
True...to a point. However, if the Mint announces that it's only producing 100k proof sets next year, stand back and watch what happens...as I believe that mintage would be a multi-decade low.
<<paying $3300 for an ASE is like paying $160K for an AGE>>
Huh...? As Mr. Spock would say, "Highly illogical." Using this logic, then a 1909S VDB would be worth about $50...and a 1934S Peace Dollar would be worth about melt. And I haven't seen many available at those prices recently.
I also think that the spot price of silver is practically irrelevant to the price of this set going forward.
If there are less than 100k then for sure someone is going to be left holding the bag.
For instance, if there were 100k ms65+ 1804 dollars out there, what would they be worth. Or, if I had the only 3 doodads in the world but nobody cared, what would they be worth. I was lucky to get 5. I want 1 for myself. I will probably break the shipment open, take 1 and sell the rest for whatever and be happy.
But the demand question is interesting and would seem to be tied to how many people actually collect these rather than how many want to flip them for a profit.
Supply and demand will rule the day.
Jim
<< <i>do tulips get milk spots? >>
NGC silver tulips normally don't.
Guys if they don,t make any more 2011s silver eagles that coin alone is going to trade for over $400 by itself in the not too distant future. These sets are cheap, cheap, cheap at $600 each.
Eric
<< <i>Are tulips limited to 100,000 specimens? >>
New varieties are limited. They're always very expensive when they're first introduced; they always go down in price in subsequent seasons as gardeners grab for the next new thing.
I'm reminded of a quote from Alexis de Tocqueville:
"It is odd to watch with what feverish ardor Americans pursue prosperity. Ever tormented by the shadowy suspicion that they may not have chosen the shortest route to get it. They cleave to the things of this world as if assured that they will never die, and yet rush to snatch any that comes within their reach as if they expected to stop living before they had relished them. Death steps in, in the end, and stops them before they have grown tired of this futile pursuit of that complete felicity which always escapes them."
With no circulation and no attrition in this coins future, it depends on flippers and collectors. Once the flippers have upped the price enough to cause pain to those who did not get on the boat initially and still want it, the demand will dry up and the prices normalize.
It happens on everything.
<< <i>The Mania only strikes if you are either looking (and speculating) for a flip...or you have a genuine love of the coin.
With no circulation and no attrition in this coins future, it depends on flippers and collectors. Once the flippers have upped the price enough to cause pain to those who did not get on the boat initially and still want it, the demand will dry up and the prices normalize.
It happens on everything. >>
But there are a lot of coins and certain mint products where this doesn't happen. It doesn't dry up.
Looking at everything surrounding this, it is more possible that this is one of those.
I suppose that is one way of putting it. Prices for any popular item increase, reach a maximum at some point as sellers try to maximize profits and buyers worry the price will go every higher, and then settle down into a steady state amount.
-Keith
<< <i>Once the flippers have upped the price enough to cause pain to those who did not get on the boat initially and still want it, the demand will dry up and the prices normalize. >>
Yes, like real estate, this bubble will pop.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
Still at 3x original price
<< <i>
<< <i>Once the flippers have upped the price enough to cause pain to those who did not get on the boat initially and still want it, the demand will dry up and the prices normalize. >>
Yes, like real estate, this bubble will pop. >>
Agree. It will peak and then taper off to a lower price that's still well above the mint's issue price.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>The last anniversary set didn't pop though
Still at 3x original price >>
I believe they peaked much higher and settled back to 3X after the pop.
Most housing peaked and popped but still sells for more than it originally sold for. Of course the exception to this is all the new housing built during the bubble that had an initial bubble price.
Exit bunker, enter Matrix. LOL
<< <i>
<< <i>The last anniversary set didn't pop though
Still at 3x original price >>
I believe they peaked much higher and settled back to 3X after the pop.
Most housing peaked and popped but still sells for more than it originally sold for. Of course the exception to this is all the new housing built during the bubble that had an initial bubble price. >>
True!