Silver, SP500 & US$ repeating 2008 performance

derryb

If the last financial crisis is any indicator, here's what to expect:

OzzyAndy

Is that scarey how closely they correspond or just plain chance? I wouldn't expect GFC mark II to show many similarities as it kind of expected, whereas the first one took most my surprise, there are different issues at play etc. If they are going to keep going the same way, we all know what to do.

Any similar Gold charts?

fivecents

<< <i>. If they are going to keep going the same way, we all know what to do. >>

Yes. Sell, sell, sell.

roadrunner

Great charts, thanks for posting them. Note that derryb's charts have already been shifted for the different time frames.

The Dow and Dollar charts both look primed for a short term trend change if they follow the 2008 March-Nov crash pattern. And based on a couple of days ago it may have already started. But this should also apply to gold and silver too which had very strong bounces at the same time as the 2008 Dow. But PM's already seem to be weakening, unless just one last head fake. With GSR already pulling back from 58+ to 50+, it would seem strange for it to continue to pull back toward the 46-48 level if another assault on 60-65 is to occur.

It's uncanny how much the silver and S&P charts look alike. In comparing the 3 headed top of 2008 to 2011 it seemed to me that if one is counting the major waves, the 2 charts
are actually 42-43 months apart (ie could be in late March 2008 right now). But if comparing fractal patterns the Jun-Sept 2008 S&P fractal looks very similar to S&P Aug-Oct 2011.
The 2008 pattern shows a quick breakdown of the H&S pattern followed by a retest of that neckline in April/May. The 2011 S&P has yet to mount any sort of restest of the breakdown
from the neckline at 1250. So far the 2011 S&P pattern looks to have done a 1st leg (abc) down and then retested it at a slightly lower point. My vote would go for for a bounce
towards the 1250 level to retest the neckline breakdown. If that occurs, gold and silver should experience nice bounces as well. Unfortunately what happens in Europe would seem to
dictate when such a bounce might or might not occur.

roadrunner

cohodk

And who says patterns are not predictable?

Question is, if the patterns do repeat, will the 2009-2011 pattern repeat?

derryb

couldn't find similar gold chart.

jmski52

Does anyone see that silver is not nearly as weak, and that the SM is another step weaker on the comparative charts? The shapes of the lines on the chart are similar, but the actual scales tell a more dramatic story, imo.

The dollar may well repeat but for different reasons. In 2008, we were looking at a liquidity and solvency crisis between banks and money flowed out of all investments due to the failure of the real estate bubble, seeking liquidity. This time, we are still seeing a liquidity and solvency crisis but it is between entire countries (and banks) due to a widespread fiscal crisis - overspending by politicians in the face of shrinking tax revenues.

Last time, the scared money ran to the dollar, and as the crisis subsided, the scared money redistributed itself among assets with precious metals as one of the overall beneficiaries. The cost of the crisis was borne by taxpayers, just like it will be this time around. Every time they do a bailout at taxpayer expense, the fiscal crisis compounds itself. And like last time, the scared money is running to the dollar and away from all other investments, seeking liquidity.

And just like last time, I expect that the precious metals will once again be one of the overall beneficiaries. We are simply playing the same game at different nominal price levels. Lather, rinse, repeat - as I like to quote one of roadrunner's sayings...

That's my opinion. Since I no longer bet on alphabet soup in the leveraged futures market and not knowing what else to do, and still thinking that it's a tad too soon for real estate, I bought some more gold yesterday. I'd have bought some PCGS graded platinum, but there wasn't any of what I needed to be found.

Nothing fundamental has changed, although there are irresistable pressures building up that will inevitably cause something to occur. It's our job to anticipate and act upon exactly what will occur.

johnny9434

here we go again.

Baley

It's really too bad that many of the interesting charts get deleted.

Well, maybe only some of them do; the ones that support predictions that ended up being right, they tend to stick around longer?

ricko

Should be an interesting couple of months ahead...... Cheers, RickO

jmski52

That was right about when QE started, and now - here we are.

coinrollhunter

Nobody can time the markets. Time in the market beats timing the market.

MGLICKER

<< <i>Nobody can time the markets. Time in the market beats timing the market. >>



A lot of truth to that. Many though pile in when stocks are dear and panic sell when they are cheap.

cohodk

<< <i>Nobody can time the markets. Time in the market beats timing the market. >>




Time does have a unique ability to heal all wounds.

jmski52

I'll be looking at a couple of stocks when they are cheap. It'll have to be in a protected industry, depending on who's running the country.