What percentage of your assets do you like to keep in cash?
jmski52
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I know that it depends on your philosophy - how much in cash or cash equivalents you keep is related to whether you believe we are headed for inflation or deflation, and whether you prefer "putting money to work" vs. keeping your powder dry, or "safe".
So, how would you characterize the financial environment now? Are we in an inflationary trend, or deflationary?
Which is more risky right now - 1) the stock market, 2) bonds, 3) cash or 4) precious metals?
I find myself more concerned about what to do with my cash than any of my other assets. My main question is about cash. What percent of your total assets do you like in cash? How so?
So, how would you characterize the financial environment now? Are we in an inflationary trend, or deflationary?
Which is more risky right now - 1) the stock market, 2) bonds, 3) cash or 4) precious metals?
I find myself more concerned about what to do with my cash than any of my other assets. My main question is about cash. What percent of your total assets do you like in cash? How so?
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I also keep a small amount of cash ready in case I need it and can not do an electronic withdrawl for a few days or so (this could last a several weeks or more if it was only for food / gas, as I wouldn't use it to pay normal "bills")
Otherwise I try to have my "money" somewhere else, although much of it could be ready (in anything other than a SHTF scenario) quickly
I suppose this means my cash reserve is typically less than 5% of my net worth, even if you remove my (very) humble abode
overall I think we inflationary - regarding risk, they all have it and I own all 4 listed
I'll be interested what others may say
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That consists of FRNs and a separate checking account, but excludes free / available cash in my brokerage account.
After all, when that next big PM correction hits, how can you back up the truck if you are cash poor?
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Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Me:
$1k in cash.
one month's expenses in checking.
zero in savings.
everthing else in PMs of various types (physical, IRA mining stocks and PM ETFs).
If you've been in PMs for more than a couple of years, you have a built in safety net (your actual cost) if prices take a major hit. Hopefully this will hold true in a couple of years for those just starting out at what they view as expensive price ($600 gold was expensive at one time). I figure my average cost to be $800 oz. on the physical gold and $16 oz. on the physical silver. These numbers allow me not to worry about price drops.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Right now means for how long? If you mean over the next year then I rate from least risky to most...
1. cash
2. bonds
3. precious metals
4. equities.
I'll also add the most risky usually yields the greatest and least returns.
Actually i'll would rate the above the same over the next 2-3 years. There are way too many variables to consider in any longer timeframe.
To answer the OP, I went into the weekend at about 40% cash, 20% short and 20% long although hedged for a 10% decline in price over the next week. Hedges also cover PM holdings. Cash is in a money market.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hypothetically, if a person had 5 months worth of monthly expenses in credit card availability, and another 12-15 months worth of monthly expenses in physical metals.....then why in the world would he need a few months worth of expenses in the form of cash in a bank account?
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<< <i>today $25...
pretty small fists if that fills 'em up >>
Ikes?
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
Not nearly enough!!!!
>
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<< <i>Renman winks about the credit card availability.....but in reality, thats a "safety net" as well.
Hypothetically, if a person had 5 months worth of monthly expenses in credit card availability, and another 12-15 months worth of monthly expenses in physical metals.....then why in the world would he need a few months worth of expenses in the form of cash in a bank account? >>
I would sell the metal before using my credit card as a "safety net".
I would rather have cash in a savings account earning .50% interest, than paying 17% interest to a credit card company.
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I use credit cards for their convenience but pay them off every month and would never consider something a safety net if it can be pulled out from under me at a moment's notice by a bankster, you know, the guys who lend you an umbrella and then ask for it back when it starts to rain.
If it comes to it, I always have pm's or stocks that I would be willing to sell before I would start running up the credit cards. Been there, done that, paid the 'stupid tax'. No thanks, not again.
I interpret this flattening of the yield curve as a move towards cash and away from risk. I also question whether an inversion of the yield curve is coming, which would further imply that cash is at a premium.
This would back up cohodk's preference for cash, but I don't know how much impact it would have on gold. It smacks more of central bank desperation and "backs against the wall" than anything else.
Agree? Disagree?
I knew it would happen.
Europe is scrambling to find dollars.
the European Central Bank said it will work with the Federal Reserve and other central banks to lend euro-area banks dollars
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How does this cure insolvency of the PIIGS? I just don't get it. We're buying Euros now? What do they expect to happen in 3 months?
It's really curious that the liquidity problem is a result of the bankers distrusting each other. Very interesting. It cannot be good for common taxpaying citizens.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I may not be up on the intricacies of international finance, but isn't the "solution" being offered now some type of short-term (3 months) currency swap, Euros for Dollars - in order to provide "dollar liquidity"?
How does this cure insolvency of the PIIGS? I just don't get it. We're buying Euros now? What do they expect to happen in 3 months?
It's really curious that the liquidity problem is a result of the bankers distrusting each other. Very interesting. It cannot be good for common taxpaying citizens. >>
It doesnt cure insolvency. Investors want dollars above anything else. Europe is hoping 3 months will buy enough time for another "solution". As Mr.T would say, "I pity the fools.." LOL
This is what is most likely to happen. Greece defaults. Portugal seeing this as an easier way out than austerity, says, "We default". Spain says, "Me too". Ireland, having gone through much restructuring flips the bird to the EU, learns Spanish, and says, "no mas".
Asset prices collapse, except for the one nobody (at least on this board) wants.
I wouldnt worry about many more bailouts. Sure you will see and hear bailouts mentioned, but the markets are bigger than any central bank or economy. Debts will be allowed to default. Assets will be repriced. Life will go on.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Stocks that can show strong and consistant earnings and revenue growth will do extremely well. Those companies that perform in line with the economy will see their PE multiples shrink. Those companies which are now trading at high multiples had better prove themselves, or they will suffer a fate similar to NFLX today.
Investors who are able to identify and invest in strong companies will most likely say, "What deflation?"
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Asset prices collapse, except for the one nobody (at least on this board) wants.
I wouldnt worry about many more bailouts. Sure you will see and hear bailouts mentioned, but the markets are bigger than any central bank or economy. Debts will be allowed to default. Assets will be repriced. Life will go on.
So the world reserve currency gets stronger because the others suck so bad?
Our businesses will suffer from a higher dollar, which leads me to think that it won't happen. Less business activity, lower tax revenues, bigger deficits. They are already stuck between a rock & a hard place with "jobs" as the leading political issue.
Interest rates are already at historic lows, so a stronger dollar implies the need for more money pumping to compensate for stagflation. This time, it's only about compensating for job losses, not about stimulating new job growth - come to think of it, maybe that's what it really was last time around.
It's going to be a tough nut to crack, and I just don't see the political will from anyone to allow asset prices to collapse without a fight. I agree that markets are stronger than a government, but that doesn't mean they won't inflate like fiends in a futile attempt to make their vision come true.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The spread between 10 and 30 yr bonds in Germany is only 90 bps. >>
I thought this was amazing when I wrote it, so I had to look at the yield curve in Japan, which we all know has been mired in deflation for the better part of 2 decades. The spread between 10 and 30 yr bonds in Japan is currently 93 bps. In Germany it is now 85 bps. In Japan short term rates are at 0% and the 30 yr at 1.94 giving a spread over the entire curve of 1.94%. In Germany, the ECB is still holding short term rates at 1.5% and the 30 yr in Germany is 2.76%, giving a spread of 1.26%. So in Germany the yield curve is flatter than in Japan. Im wondering if Germany isnt already seeing the deflation seeds sprouting.
I do expect the ECB to cut rates dramatically over the next year so maybe that will keep Germany from the abyss.
Trichet called my bluff of not raising rates in the Spring. Now he suffers mightily.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Are credit cards cash?
>>
extreme last measures on that slick. no one should carry a balance on a credit card period. jmho ( thats what got some into major trouble in the first place )
Camelot
high quality corporate and some municipals and treasuries.(Vanguard Life Strategy Income Fund)
25% cash bank accounts insured
50% rare coins
All debts paid off in full.
The above maf not suit all, but when one is old, retired and very ill, it is wise to be somewhat deversified
in the most conservative and easily converted to cash, manner as possible. Unnecessary risk, is no longer
an option to be considered.
Camelot
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