Uh Oh, a Low Pop 1972 on eBay. Let the Bloodbath Begin...

gemint

1972 PSA 8 Larry Stahl

A lot of people have been chomping at the bit for this one. It will be interesting to see how ugly the bidding gets. I'm glad I'm not chasing it.

There's also a PSA 9 #51 Harmon Killebrew up for auction. It was a pop 1 but I also have one so there must be at least two now.

mcastaldi

Well. . .there are five of them in PSA8 and three of them in PSA9. I know EJ has one of the 8s and I have another. I know a dealer who has one of the 9s. It's certainly a card that's more difficult than average, but I'm not sure I'd consider it "low pop".

Mike

FB

Actually,

This card has gotten a lot of press and yes the price will probably be pretty steep when we're finished. But, its looking like the two most difficult cards are turning out to be ones that most people don't expect. #482 is Joe Hoerner and currently there are 0 that have been graded to this point. I went through my raw cards and found almost 20 of them - unfortunately every one of them is darn near 90/10. The other tough guy is turning out to be Alan Gallagher #693. He is another off-center special and so far there are only 2 - 7's and a 9 with a qualifier (I'm guessing OC).

The Paul Schaal IA is still a fan favorite with only one 7 and one 8 to this point.

Should be fun...

Oh, and John, I was a bit surprised to see the Killebrew 9 up there and doubly surprised because the Pop report still reflects one (hasn't updated since 4/3) and it wasn't you selling it. So it looks like the Registry special is kicking some cards loose that we nomally don't see.

gaspipe26

Frank,
After sending in almost 25 1972 Joe Morgan's in the last year, I finally got a 9 yesterday. Will wonders never cease.

FB

Bob,

If you want to sell it outright - let me know (frank.bakka@prudential.com) or give me a heads up when you plan to put it on eBay. Either way - I'm interested.

And I know what you mean. There are a number of different cards that it seems will get 8 no matter how pretty it is. I also think that most graders (consciously or unconsciously) have a set percentage in mid on what they feel they can give on loads of high grade cards. If you cracked 100 PSA 9's out of the case and resent them, I'd bet you'd get 35 - 40 9's and the rest 8's.

mcastaldi

Frank> The Schaal IA in PSA7 is mine. There's a scan of it on my checklist page. I sent it in knowing full well that it was not centered well enough to get an 8. But with some cards, in this set a 7 is more than acceptable until someone finds a big stash of them in PSA8 shape. I did this same thing with the Expos Team card.

And guys, if you think the Stahl PSA8 is going to be a bloodbath, the dealer I mentioned who has the Stahl PSA9 also has an Expos Team in PSA8 NQ. I would be very surprised if that Expos Team did not reach the $150-$200 mark when it goes up.

Mike

waitilltheytrytosell

It's funny that when some tough cards are mentioned here like the Checklist or Stahl, that when they come up on an Ebay auction they go for a nice premium. You could have Stahl right next to a lower pop card, and just because the lower pop wasn't mentioned on here as being a tough card, it seems to go unnoticed. There was a 4 checklist on a bit ago which went for around $75, and then a Horton boyhood card I think it was with half the pop of the checklist, at like $20. The checklist was hyped as being tough, an nobody mentioned the other one. It seems weird.

gtbeaker

I would also be very interested in the '72 PSa 9 Morgan. Sounds like a job for eBay and let the feeding frenzy begin.

gaspipe26

I appreciate the interest in the Morgan . I dont know what I plan on doing with it yet. I know one thing is that I cant make anymore as all the rest of my Morgans have snow on them and will never get a 9 because of PD.. Like the 1972 Yankees Team card, that has a Pop of 3 and I was fortunate enough to make all three. I held on to 1 of them and Frank has one and Andy M the other. Thats another card I cant make anymore of. One card I'll get in a 9 is the Vida Blue card. 1-9 out of 50 submitted, but I still have 200-300 more nice ones!

69topps8

I'm going to submit my Schaal In Action and Expos team card as well as a few other low pop 72s in a few weeks. Wish me luck. I now realize why my Schaal card is centered reasonably well. It's significantly oversized. That means it will probably get encapsulated in a pre '57T holder with a mylar sleave. The Expos card has a slight tilt so I'm a bit worried about that one. Does anyone know how to evaluate the centering of '72s? It's tough because of the archtop design.

mcastaldi

John> If you don't want to post the scan here, feel free to e-mail me and I'll be glad to tell you what I think. Or just discuss centering in general.

Mike

gemint

Do you think it will 8 NQ?

boggs301012

It appears to have a crease(could be the scan) On the upper right corner ..about an inch from the top ...left to right about an inch long. And it appears diamond cut slightly.


Just my 1 1/2 cents worth

James

69topps8

Boggs - Thanks for the reply. I actually scanned it in the Cardsaver. The line on the card is actually on the Cardsaver. I'm mainly with the diamond cut and whether it would fall outside the PSA 8 guidelines (65-35 or 70-30). The odd shaped design makes it difficult to measure the centering at the edges of the photo.

boggs301012

I wish I had an exact answer But I dont submitt VIntage. I guess it depends on were Psa measures from ..which end . If I had to guess I would say probably not when you compare it to these which have been graded.


1972 team cards

mcastaldi

John> That's probably about as good as you're gonna find it, assuming no creases.

Mike

RayBShotz

I have been listening intently here to all the talk about 72's and soaking in the nuances of this set regarding tough cards. I am preparing my under the wire 70's submission to include a few nice 72's.
This is my first go around with this year having peviously concentrated my efforts on 69's. The question before the group is - specific to 72's, assuming Mint centering and corners, what is the most likely minor defect to look for that would drop a 72' card out of a 9 slab into an 8?
Shooting for 9's and looking for an edge!
RayB69Topps and my "Back of the Pack" 72' set

FB

This one ended with not a bang, but with a whimper.

I think the fact that a 2nd one posted on eBay before this one closed hurt its final price. I also believe that the "72 guys", great guys that they are realize that this was one of only 20 cards that I needed to finish the set.

Thanks guys!

69topps8

You got that card for a great price, congratulations. I though for sure it would top $50. You basically got it for Beckett book + grading fees. It does look like some of the 72 guys took mercy on you.

dalew

Frank emailed me so I didn't bid on it. I think others were emailed too. I'm firmly convinced that a lot of cards are out there and these prices just got to come down at some point.

I'm sure those low pop cards are right know at PSA being graded.

Wonder if it hurts us all to have our cards listed with grades and what we are missing.

If I was hunting raw material for grading purposes, I'd sure be doing that and listing them on ebay. Hell, I'd probably even email the fab five to tell them that they are up for sale.

This is crazy.

Dale

mcastaldi

Frank> That was an excellent price. I wish I'd have gotten off so easy on my PSA8 Stahl.

Mike

theBobs

The Anti-shill...

Another creative innovation from the 72 guys.

FB

I've also sold between 400 and 500 72 PSA 8's, 7's and even some 9's to a host of people on the set registry. And generally, I don't do it on eBay. So, I got a couple of emails like "this is one that you still need, huh? Will you have any more 72's for sale soon?". Reply: "yup...".
"Same price as last time?" Reply: "depends..."

theBobs

I really respect the way the 72 guys inter-relate with each other. The 65 crew is learning the value of cross-pollination – slowly we are building the “team” spirit.

FB

Don't know whether anyone noticed...

But there was a 2nd Larry Stahl #782 in PSA 8 on eBay that closed last week. I was a little surprised that for a card that got so much press, that it went for $37 and was won by someone that I didn't even recognize. With only 3 of the top 6 sets having that card, I was surprised that there wasn't more action on it from the 72 "players".

C'mon guys!!! How are we going to get Carlos to put his Alan Gallgher up on eBay if the tough cards don't bring in big money!!!

carkim

C'mon guys!!! How are we going to get Carlos to put his Alan Gallgher up on eBay if the tough cards don't bring in big money!!!

I was thinking the same thing.

Carlos

mcastaldi

Well. . .there were the two PSA8 Stahls auctioned the week of April 8. Now. . .there is a third PSA8 Stahl available.

1824537864

At the time I picked mine up (Sun-Times show in late March), the PSA8 population was 5. As of 4/27, the PSA8 pop has grown to 11. That's an increase of 6 in less than a month!

This isn't such a low-pop card anymore.

Mike

69topps8

Just goes to show you there are a lot of hidden gems out there. I'm just waiting for scores of PSA 8 1969 Mike Shannons to hit the market!

FB

You're still missing the Shannon??? I think that I've got 5 PSA 8's and a couple of PSA 9's just sitting here. Lemme check...

RedRomad275

Sorry to interject into your conversation but I have a quick question. What is pop? or low pop? Thanks, just trying to learn all this new lingo.

theBobs

pop = population

Population is the total number of a specific card that has been graded. In 1965 for example, most commons have between 8-15 PSA 8 examples. A low pop card, would be below 4 in PSA 8. Of course, we now have 24 sets registered, so those pop figures are a bit relative.

RayBShotz

Welcome Red!

POP is the PSA Population Report.
This report lists all the PSA graded examples of each card in each set.
When a seller or message board poster mentions low POP what he means is that the particular card being offered or discussed has a low population in that specific grade. Flat out there are very few available PSA examples of it comparatively speaking to other cards from the same year.

Obviously you have a rarer card if you are the owner and its market value could and will likely be considerably higher than the same card in the same grade that had many examples from the same year.

I hope I was halfway clear with that and it helps.

RayB69Topps

Krems

Hi,
To answer your question, pop is short for population. PSA publishes a population report weekly that will list every card in a particular set and the population of each card and each grade that has been given for the card. The low pop cards are cards that there have only been a few graded in a particular grade, usually 8 or 9. These are the cards that usually will sell for many times book value if you are lucky enough to find them.
Jared

Krems

sorry, I guess I was to slow to respond

RedRomad275

Excellent response guys...thanks for the info.

theBobs

One key point on population -- sometimes population indicates a rare card, and sometimes it doesn't. A card can have a low population, and be truly rare (1969 Topps Mike Shannon) due to its placement on the printing sheet, overall production quality or quantity, etc. Sometimes a card is low pop ONLY due to a lack of submissions. You don't want to pay a premium under this scenario...

waitilltheytrytosell

What's the point of putting up a low pop card like a Gallagher if the FAB 5 all collude to keep the price down? I sure hope that when the FAB 5 go to sell something that there's no collusion by the buyers to keep the prices down. You see, you can't have it both ways. You can conspire to screw the seller, but when you become the seller, you don't want to be screwed. Maybe that's why some sellers need shill bidders. They just want to get a fair price, and if all the buyers are conspiring against them, the odds are pretty stacked against them.

mikeschmidt

Waitill has hit the nail on the head -- these buyer/seller agreements are a double-edged sword. They work out great to keep prices down in the short-term, but the whole system is upset by either a) a newcomer to collecting the set or b) when one of the set collectors sells.

From someone who has occassionally participated in such agreements, I will say only this: I have only entered into those agreements when I have a high level of confidence that I will be collecting the cards/set for longer than those with whom I am in an agreement. Otherwise, there will be a severe lack of spirited offers when time comes to sell.

I also think that this is one reason why a lot of the vintage low population cards end up either a) on Ebay with reserves or, more often b) in major auction houses whereby the knowledge of the other bidders' identities is kept hidden.

Treetop

Good points!….I have a handful of low population vintage cards being graded right now……..I agree with MS on the point that a reserve is a good way to go and probably will do so when I list the cards. What I use as a benchmark for the reserve, is something I have not decided.

Wait…..when you refer to the 1972 group, I think some of them are getting hungry and want those low pop cards at any costs……..check out this auction on a 1972 PSA 8 Gardner that just closed. The current population is 3 in this grade.

1972 Topps PSA 8 Gardner

mcastaldi

To a point, Treetop is correct. Consider the 72 set right now. . .
You have three people above 90% and another above 85%. Obviously, we some of the cards we need among us are different and some are the same. We can't stay out of each other's way forever. The times are coming where the bidding will be fierce.

However, look at the auction for the Gardner you mentioned. The highest bid placed by one of the top 72 set collectors was $22. The people driving the price up were either Yankess fans or 72 collectors who are not yet as far along with their set. When I saw this auction close, I felt very fortunate to already own this card in PSA8 (one I submitted).

But also look at eBay# 1825270482. This is not a low-pop card and yet closed above $125 - because two Cubs' collectors decided to take the gloves off.

Among the top 5 or 6 collectors of 72s, we're all friends. . .but we also understand what our sets mean to us.
Just say we're friendly about stepping on each other's toes

Mike

Treetop

Mike,

Thanks for taking it a step further. Only a true 72 set collector can speak like that. That Cub card that you reference above that was won buy rseegs@aol.com . He is Mr. Cub. If that guys wants a card, he gets it. he has bought a cub card or two from me in the past and if he wants, money appears to be secondary........

by the way, Frank offered me Manhattan Island AND a bucket beads for any low pop cards I had. Frank, I consider the offer!.......By the way Frank, its me Mark!

Basilone

The Gardner card would of had a final price of $23.50 if "Nailman22" had not bid. Proof positive that you only need two bidders.

FB

I'll tell you...

I had the $22 bid and had planned to go back at the close with a $50 bid. I need 16 cards to complete this set in PSA 8. When I saw that the price was already $100 I had to shake my head. Instead of bidding, I spent $30 on a year long pass to the Fort Washington show and then found 2 raw Gardners that should (I say SHOULD) get an 8. Even then, for the difference of $93.00 I can live with a 7.

Bid what you think the card is worth and if you lose - find it somewhere else...

Treetop

yes, you do need two bidders, and if you ask a seller, hopefully 3 or 4

Mike, I just realized that Nailman22 bid on the Gardner, I don't know if he's posted his set yet, but he has been very busy buyer those 72's lately, he's purchased some off me, on ebay and direct. I think he's relatively new, but working is way up the latter quickly, I'm sure. I think he's kind of like the herbitzer is with PSA 9, nailman is with 8's lately

jackstraw

hi guys,
is herbetzier the olander collection?i see money is no object with him,he has bought from me and sniped me before.i was just wondering,it seemed like this olander was slamming the fab five and especially frank on his 72 set registry.

nailman sniped me on a few of dale's cards and also a guy by the handle of fread. i started this set and have about 65 cards to add when i get them.i am taking a break though to concentrate on my much easier 76 set.there is about 10 cards that will cost you a few 100 but there is not a common that's going to run you a 100+ in an 8.

i think i am number 24 on the all time 72 list,so if this is anything like college basketball i am doing well.


jack

Basilone

FB...you must of been p*ssed with 23 seconds left in the auction a $100+ bid was made. Just out of curiosity....why did you not up your bid to say a $40-50 bid in the final minute/seconds to see if you would of gotten the card (before the $102.50 bid was placed) or where you waiting with your $50.00 bid for one of those 5 seconds left snipes.

FB

Basilone,

I logged on with about a minute left and I was planning on sniping with 10 or so seconds left. With 20 seconds to go it jumped to $102.50. At that point, I have to admit that I muttered something I won't print here. But, I couldn't be PO'd for long. I'm sure I've done it to others and I accept this as one of the downsides of being cheap... It would have been worse for me to win and then have my wife log on eBay later. I wouldn't want to have to explain a $100 PSA 8 common...

Jack,

Yes Olander is Herbetizer. And he too can beat the crap out of a number of us when he feels in the mood. But, if he's willing to pay big money thats fine - he's actually a pretty good guy. So, I'll bid what I feel its worth - pick and choose my spots. I also get most of my PSA 9's from my own submissions as well as trading with others - so it helps take the sting away when I win 2 out of 10 PSA 9's that I was interested in. This is not a rare set by any stretch of the imagination. There are plenty of really sweet raw cards out there. You just have to keep lookin for em.

mcastaldi

Kind of going along with what Frank said, I have a VERY hard time swallowing the prices some of these people are paying for PSA8s.
These prices essentially tell me two things-
1) These people are too lazy to find the submittable examples that are out there
2) If they're not too lazy to look for ungraded examples, they are not confident enough in their ability to submit cards which will yield PSA 8 or 9 results. So as a result they are willing to pay more for already-graded examples.

Treetop> Yeah. . .nailman22 seems like he's going strong on the 72s right now. It will be interesting to see if he keeps it going.

Mike

getupkid

Fellow 72ers

I am in shock at the prices for the Gardner and the Bonham (yellow Letters) PSA 8's. What are people thinking?? I've not been paying as much attention lately to the auction action as I used to. Rseegs bought a Jose Cardenal Traded PSA 8 for $93.00 and that shocked me. The card is a low pop tough to find centered, but $93.00??

I'm 57 cards away and I feel like I wiill be done by the end of the year.

Erik

Basilone

72 collectors-

The good news is that the market is robust for 72's...its a great feeling knowing youre not throwing your money away with your collecting/addiction. Best of Luck as you head towards the finish line of 100% completion.

John Basilone

mcastaldi

The thing is that pop alone doesn't tell the whole story. When is the last time anyone's seen a PSA8 Aaron IA or PSA8 Mays IA come to eBay? The Mays IA has a pop of 29 in PSA8 and the last one I saw on eBay went in the $150 range - and the centering was definitely marginal for the grade. If I had to guess, it'll take $200 to win the next one if it's nicely centered. SMR on it is somewhere around $50 or something silly.

The Aaron IA has a pop of 18 in PSA8 - but you never see them around.

Mike