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One day doesn't make a trend but what an interesting day

JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
Gold up
Silver up
Oil up
dollar up
stock market down (crushed)

MJ
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Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......

Comments

  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A couple more 'interesting days' like this, and a real sense of fear/panic could break out. image
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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,994 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the US economy is now Japan's economy starting about 15 years ago.

    dismal

    bleak

    flat

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  • stevekstevek Posts: 28,886 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Gold up
    Silver up
    Oil up
    dollar up
    stock market down (crushed)

    MJ >>



    ...and that my friends, is as bad as it gets, except for the "dollar up" - it's not a question of if a recession is coming, just how bad...how bad it will be is how low the stock market goes...that's my opinion after I flipped a coin and it came up tails.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    An improved stock market was actually the only positive thing this current White House had to hang their hat on in the 2012 election. Some constituents felt richer and better off...........What else is better in the past 2.5 years? It's a long time between now and Nov 2012 but I fully expect the White House to pull out all the stops to get the stock market back on track. It maybe futile but that is one of the only ways to save the 2012 election. That and attack the right and extreme right. The latter is a given I think and might trump the importance of the stock market. If that happens..........look out below. Wall St is punishing the current political polarization. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,457 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image

    Ben will be very busy preparing QE3.
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  • dragondragon Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
    LOLOL....that pic is hilarious!
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    i think if you factor out oil up (because of reserves not demand) and we are in for a lot of the same

    we saw the 14K+ dow go down to 6400 give or take

    i think we are out of the bear market rally now.

    look out below...

    then sideways 2014'ish
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The commod trade is OVER.

    Hopefully gold will not be a commod.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The commod trade is OVER.

    Hopefully gold will not be a commod. >>



    I can't subsribe to the commod trade being over unilaterally even taking gold out of the equation. Too many other factors play into this. Drought are droughts, money has to go somewhere and blah, blah, blah.............Yes, downward pressure is in play. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cohodk, would you classify silver and platinum as commods?

    People still have to eat as well. And the eastern world is still growing fast. Are the grains done for as well?

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China is also consumimg more meat then ever before. Pork is especially in tight supply. The tsunami amplified the shortage. More meat equals more grain.....MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    U.S. gold hits record at $1,801 as stocks dive
    * Fed promise for near-zero rates keeps gold near highs
    * Crude rebounds with help from U.S. stocks drawdown
    * China import/export seen good for commods demand

    - Safe-haven buying lifted gold
    above $1,800 per ounce for the first time and oil rebounded
    from six month lows on Wedesday as confidence in the U.S. and
    euro zone economies eroded fast, while the outlook for Chinese
    commodities demand brightened.
    With global interest rates very low, many investors bought
    commodities as a wealth-preservation alternative to cash. That
    flight to safety added 1.4 percent to the Reuters-Jefferies CRB
    Index .CRB as money fled plunging stock markets, a day after
    the benchmark basket of 19 commodity futures hit an eight-month
    low.
    Even as equities on Wall Street nosedived again, markets
    focused on a downturn in French stocks. The crux of Europe's
    debt fears spread from Italy and Spain to a country with a top
    credit rating, which in turn sent gold up more than 3 percent
    briefly as one of a handful of relatively low-risk assets.
    "The skies would appear to be clear for these safe havens
    like gold," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at
    Interactive Brokers Group, Greenwich, Conn. With the debt woes
    spilling over into the world's biggest economics, "we don't
    know where this thing is going to stop anymore."
    (Refiles, fixes word order and punctuation in second
    paragraph)
    By Alden Bentley NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters)
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Artificial dollar fattening attempt. There is no way a devaluing dollar keeps things down, margin bumps or not.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Cohodk, would you classify silver and platinum as commods?

    People still have to eat as well. And the eastern world is still growing fast. Are the grains done for as well?

    roadrunner >>




    Silver and plat may indeed act as commods. These are very thin markets though, and if enough players wants to make prices move, then they certainly will be able to.

    Yes, people have to eat, and they have been for the last 5 years as well, yet prices for wheat, soybeans and corn when taken as a whole are no different than 5 years ago.

    Cattle prices are 30% below 06 and hogs are 60% less. Maybe these will rally some.

    Copper has broken its uptrend and maybe double topped.


    Look, just because something is in demand does not mean its price will continue higher. Expectations for higher demand are oftentimes built into prices. So even when that higher demand materializes, it has no impact on prices. If the demand does not show up, prices can plummet.

    This will not be a one way street lower as there will be intermittent rallies due to drought, QE3, or other unknowns. And not all commods may go down at the same. But I do believe that we "have seen the highs for quite some time"image --------Maybe that will get them moving again.image


    There was a tremendous amount of $$$ pushed towards commods as a play on future inflation. If the CBs cant make that inflation materialize, look out below.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>China is also consumimg more meat then ever before. Pork is especially in tight supply. The tsunami amplified the shortage. More meat equals more grain.....MJ >>




    The ethanol folly took A LOT of corn away from the meat industry. As oil drops, ethanol will be less profitable. Corn will go back into feeding people and livestock, instead of our gas tanks.

    Its not like we dont produce enough grain. It is just misallocated.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Artificial dollar fattening attempt. There is no way a devaluing dollar keeps things down, margin bumps or not. >>



    The worlds central banks (governments) WANT the dollar to stay weak. They've been throwing everything at it for the last 3 years, yet it still hangs in. The CB's may be losing the war.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with Jim Willie - we are witnessing inflationary deflation.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A look back at how bubbles burst.




    Since most feel charts are just history (erroneously), why not study history to learn and understand what happened?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What about the 34 year TBond "bubble" chart? Or is it just a new paradigm and different this time?
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What about the 34 year TBond "bubble" chart? Or is it just a new paradigm and different this time? >>



    Bubbles dont take 34 years to develop. Is there relative value in a Tbond? Probably not, but the chart looks nothing like a bubble, and you know that. You are a student of technical analysis, take the time to read the article, then reread. I know there is no conspiracy or manipulation theory written about, so it might be a boring story, but it is all factual. There is a lot to learn about the "next time". image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The 30 year TBond chart looks really no different than the 2000-2011 silver chart. Put them both on log scales and you keep having price rise to the upper trend line/upper channel boundary (ie exponential growth). The fact that the US owns the reserve currency makes it a different animal that any other country's sovereign bond. I'd call it a bubble, especially after 33 years. Considering the bottom in 1982 resulted from a >50% decline over 42 years, while nothing since has exceeded 25% is another reason I'd call it a bubble. Where's that next 38% Fib correction following that last 50%? Looks like it's about 40 from peaks to troughs: 1940, 1980, 2020, etc. The rise in yields from 1940 to 1982 certainly was a bubble. We've been reversing that for the last 33 years. Wouldn't the inverse of yields over the past 32 years a bubble? If one figures US sovereign debt is in a bubble (ie parabolic) then it only makes sense that the underlying TBond must be as well. I would disagree that bubbles in the world's reserve currency/sovereign bond can take 34 years or longer to flame out. The housing market from 1950 to 2004 was certainly a bubble, though it took a complete mania the final 3 years after that to blow it up via otc derivatives. Doesn't change the fact that the 50 year rise was basically a bubble....that we're now correcting out.

    Tbond chart

    long term yields
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    So like how Hollywood can't come up with any ideas for new movies, they just keep making sequels...that's what the approach is here now too?
    Seems like a lot of old threads have been resurrected as of late. Is it Winter, boredom, stagnant prices, people just like looking into the past and not what's ahead? I know we learn from the past, but with knowing the past, where do go from here in a relative manner of speaking?

    edit: And now I've contributed to dragging up the past LOL
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I know we learn from the past, but with knowing the past, where do go from here in a relative manner of speaking?

    Thats my purpose for bumping some old threads. Introspection. Sometimes we can learn a lot more from ourselves than from others.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Sometimes we can learn a lot more from ourselves than from others.

    I have nothing to teach myself, because I already know what I know image I get it though.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    lol, POM, but remember all you know isnt all there is to know...
    keceph `anah
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Sometimes we can learn a lot more from ourselves than from others.

    I have nothing to teach myself, because I already know what I know image I get it though. >>



    You will "know", when you know what you dont know.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,076 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk on 8/10/11
    The commod trade is OVER.

    Hopefully gold will not be a commod.





    I guess that's not a bad call for someone who has his closed eyes. Lol

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Anyone for Chinese?





    image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    Bonds actually are the best bet going forward for the foreseeable future.

    JMHO!
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  • CuKevinCuKevin Posts: 1,722 ✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: mariner67
    Bonds actually are the best bet going forward for the foreseeable future.
    JMHO!


    Please explain. I don't see how you can come to that conclusion in the current environment.
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  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,272 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's like any anomaly … Take a DOUBLED DIE, for instance. Many think it's double die. That's just not so.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Currency crisis insurance at work:





    image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: CuKevin
    Originally posted by: mariner67
    Bonds actually are the best bet going forward for the foreseeable future.
    JMHO!


    Please explain. I don't see how you can come to that conclusion in the current environment.

    Bonds and dollar index will go higher in a stockmarket crash. This past week showed those who were not paying attention last year that a stockmarket crash is a good possibility.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: CuKevin
    Originally posted by: mariner67
    Bonds actually are the best bet going forward for the foreseeable future.
    JMHO!


    Please explain. I don't see how you can come to that conclusion in the current environment.

    Bonds and dollar index will go higher in a stockmarket crash. This past week showed those who were not paying attention last year that a stockmarket crash is a good possibility.



    Not so sure about a "crash," but a long overdue correction is more likely.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,778 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: OPA
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: CuKevin
    Originally posted by: mariner67
    Bonds actually are the best bet going forward for the foreseeable future.
    JMHO!


    Please explain. I don't see how you can come to that conclusion in the current environment.

    Bonds and dollar index will go higher in a stockmarket crash. This past week showed those who were not paying attention last year that a stockmarket crash is a good possibility.



    Not so sure about a "crash," but a long overdue correction is more likely.


    You say potato i say potaato.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

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