<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
I'd bet there is a concerted effort by Friday to try and improve that 233-1 ratio. Still have some inviting gaps in GLD and SLV sitting about 5-8% lower.
The volume on this rally for GDX, GDXJ, GLD, SLV, SPY, etc has been declining. VXO is close to retesting the 20 dma, VXX showing a flag pattern, GSR filled a gap at 44. Some inconsistencies here.
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this.
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. It would be in their best interest to knock the price down and have many of those call options expire worthless, or at least be able to balance out by making the puts worth more. Unfortunately for them, an equibrium price (value of calls = value of puts) would be about 155, so they know they're going to get hit, but would like to minimize the pain.
Part of the problem the market makers are facing is that there is very little open interest on the put side. Today though volume is much heavier relative to open interest on the put side, so it may be that the MM's are gaining back some ground.
Looking at NEM. Its close to breaking a nearly 1 yr downtrend. Target would be new highs.
<< <i>This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. >>
Are there stats on how much the market makers own vs. individual or institutional investors? The thing is that while there is opportunity for the market makers to reduce their liability if they can manipulate the market lower, the option pricing is all based on mathematical models such that all of the profit they make over time makes up for the few ocassions when this kind of thing happens. Like a casino doesn't get too worried when someone gets lucky and takes them for $1M on a blackjack table because their profit over the rest of the year (or more) makes up for it and they are profitable over time, even if they may have a bad month.
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. It would be in their best interest to knock the price down and have many of those call options expire worthless ... >>
I am surprised a market veteran makes such comments. The market makers make their money on the spread between bid and ask, not on directional bets. Option market makers are almost always delta neutral. For the many option novices, delta neutral strategies don't care which way the market goes, while making money from time decay. When option market makers sell calls, they immediately make offsetting trades in the underlying, other options or with futures to stay at delta neutral. Market makers aren't plungers, they rarely make directional bets. They certainly don't have $700m worth of naked exposure in short calls, if they lost that much on the calls they almost certainly made the same $700m back in the underlying or with futures with their offsetting trades.
With all that, yes, the option "pin" [a close right on a strike to make options go out worthless] is a popular event because it means a few less closing transactions for the market makers. However, that mostly saves a few cents on SEC fees per contract to close out the trades, usually not much directional up or down exposure.
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Are you suggesting this means something?
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. . >>
Are you a conspiracy geek? There's no liability for specialists.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. . >>
Are you a conspiracy geek? There's no liability for specialists. >>
RT, PC, et al, I guess we'll just have to assume that I know something that most do not.
My definition of conspiracy is trying to hide the truth. This is much different than creating the truth.
<< <i>RT, PC, et al, I guess we'll just have to assume that I know something that most do not. >>
Thanks for sharing and participating in the forum. ------------------------------ I was going to write last night that gold looked like it was at a point where either we were going to start a triangle consolidation or burst higher. Looks like we're bursting higher. Evidence continues to mount - and the economical client confirms - that we just might well be in the midst of a runaway move in gold where it will behave like silver a few months ago, continuing higher and higher and ignoring the need to retrace and overbought indicators. Such a move will probably last until late September and could carry gold to $2300 or higher, even $3000 but I don't want to get too crazy.
My near term target is 1890-1900.
And like gold during the silver move, I don't expect silver to really participate. Expect it to severely lag, although it may meander up to and beyond $50.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>VXX up 14% this morning. Got in at premarket. >>
Nice! Got another monster box lined up for that yet? >>
Not at these prices, will donate any proceeds to AGQ at a later time. Eggs haven't hatched yet, too early to count chickens.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>VXX up 14% this morning. Got in at premarket. >>
Back out this afternoon with a quick 17% more "chickens."
Too bad Scottrade won't let me daytrade trade like this with my IRA cash accounts. Probably for the better.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The runaway train continues. This move in gold looks very powerful and will move big distances fast. Support for Friday is at 1815.3, 1843.7, resistance at 1860.5, 1905.7. I wouldn't recommend going into this weekend without being loaded up on paper gold.
OTOH, stock indexes look awful, more downside coming. Not sure where that leaves gold stocks.
Last night's surge was a beauty, and I believe this morning's retracement sets up the patter for more movement. We might not get much more movement here on Friday, but I bet Sunday it will be ready to roll to more new highs. 1893 and 1931.5 new short term targets.
The parabolic move is here.
BTW, silver had a nice breakout as well, it will be free to head higher, but the real action should be in gold.
Gold miners didn't participate in the party yesterday and went down with the S&P though not as much. So far today GDX is slightly up. But it's apparent miners are still not getting the love. Harmony gold just took a 2nd quarter net loss on record gold prices. Mining costs far exceeded production revenue even with record high gold prices. The game is not simple for these guys. Then how do you figure in the risk that your mine will be nationalized, shutdown, depermitted, flooded out, electricity or fuel cut off, extended labor strike, bank notes recalled, etc.
GDX is now wrestling with a double top and neckline at 61.6 that was formed over the past 3-4 months. Gotta get through this area to shift to a very bullish mode targeting 69 or so. If not, back down they go. GDXJ's chart pattern looks a lot more bearish. During gold's latest run these past 6 trading days it has outperformed GDX 8% to 6%. The miner's rising costs continue to make them a far less leveraged play than if costs could be controlled. Those cash costs of $300-$400/oz of a year or two ago have gone up to $600-$800/oz for a lot of miners. And the all-in costs are probably $800-$1,000. While the miner's margins are increasing, it's not fast enough to offset all the additional risks inherent to miners...just ask Chavez.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The trading in India on Saturday closed with a Premium of about 30 dollars over the NY close for Gold and a Premium of about 1 dollar over the NY close for Silver
Interesting, RR, I believe it. Asia is fueling the market pretty good right now. Friday we saw a quick retracement, and the whole thing looked really bullish to me. I do expect more upside on Monday and all next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see a $50-100 day. If it's a runaway pattern like I think it is, such moves will be very common, and the entire move should last until the end of Sept, making $2500 very feasible. Of couse, if you can play the downside at the end of Sept., that will be very profitable as well.
Kitco thread on Israeli market trading that close today. Seems like prices on silver and gold are higher.
Sorry link doesn't work. You have to go to the Kitco site, tab gold forums, then gold discussion forum, and find thread for Israeli Market. They don't even allow linking the forums tab.
We've already set a new all time high tonight by $.50, which indicates there should be more upside to come. Resistance is at 1883.0, 1910.6, and 1967.5.
And how about silver? Opening up over $1, bonking up against $44.00...
Platinum also joining the party, up $18 at the moment, Palladium up $5...
In the last reported week, M2 grew at a faster pace then anytime since 9-11 and Lehman's failure week. Something is brewing behind the scenes that is forcing the FED to toss tons of money at the problem. The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
<< <i>The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
Last week wasn't so great for Europe. How much worse can that get? Quite a bit worse, I suspect.
Germany's got to be pretty fed up by now. >>
Many reports say they are facing a crisis equivalent to the "liquidity crisis" we faced here in 2008. Europe's going to have to make some major announcements soon... some sort of QE, or kicking some members out of the EU, or something like that.
<< <i>The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
Last week wasn't so great for Europe. How much worse can that get? Quite a bit worse, I suspect.
Germany's got to be pretty fed up by now. >>
Many reports say they are facing a crisis equivalent to the "liquidity crisis" we faced here in 2008. Europe's going to have to make some major announcements soon... some sort of QE, or kicking some members out of the EU, or something like that. >>
European Union is close to no longer being a union. Members are starting to realize they need their own unique currency and control over that currency - some to print more and some to quit giving to the others.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
HUI breaking over 600. A lot of people were watching this level as an indicator of much more upside to come. Although the breakout not yet decisive, I think it's just a matter of time.
This morning we had a nice retracement of the move up since Friday morning, which has recharged the short term charts for more progress as well. The only thing to be wary of is a sudden retracement of a much larger move, but I don't think that's coming just yet.
Took a $9k hit getting out of last week's position in ZSL this morning. Painful loss, but I'm still up, net, about $8k overall on the year in short-term trading. If there's a silver lining, at least my physical PMs are doing well.
ZSL is a great very-short term instrument but the problem is when it turns strong in one direction or another. The other problem, as many others have pointed out, is the compounding effect of losses. People who bought in at $15, $18, $22, or more and are still holding, have just gotten killed.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
I'd often rather play with DUST (gold miners 2x short) at times since it can go up or stay even even with gold rising as long as the stock market is getting hit. Silver is just a total wildcard at times.
Dug deeper into those M2 comments that I had found on another blog and found out that the $155 BILL jump in one week was during the stock market crash in July. So boosting M2 at that time made a lot of sense and may not have had any other sinister motive. But that week was in fact just a bit shy of the $175 BILL weeks that were seen following 9-11 and the Sept 2008 Lehman bust. For the past month M2 has increased by around $250 BILL (2.8% monthly change).
<< <i>In the last reported week, M2 grew at a faster pace then anytime since 9-11 and Lehman's failure week. Something is brewing behind the scenes that is forcing the FED to toss tons of money at the problem. The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
roadrunner >>
Its the same story as 3 years ago. The banks dont hold enough to cover even a minor run on them. Every dollar the FED prints just goes to make sure your checking account is whole. The destructive effects of the markets are greater than any central bank printing press.
I am a strong believer that GLD has been responsible for much of the movement in spot prices. Now, are traders looking at the GLD or $gold chart?
With the retracement out of the way, the charts are loaded with energy and ready for another move. My target for Tuesday is either resistance level 2 which is 1933.5 or 3 which is 1979.5. Of course, we'll have to break through R1 at 1916.9 first.
With this kind of energy and momentum, we could be looking at $2100 by the end of the month, at which point we'll probably see a mega-retracement lasting a week or so, before a final blowoff to $2500 or so at the end of Sept.
I am a strong believer that GLD has been responsible for much of the movement in spot prices. Now, are traders looking at the GLD or $gold chart?
You mean the same GLD that George Soros bailed out of back in April?
Which chart does the rest of the world follow GLD or Gold? (ie Asia, Australia, South America, Europe, Africa, etc.)
I think gold has the potential to hit $1950-$2200 through September/October..... or even right here.... but then retrace to $1650 over several weeks to a couple months. Final wave up could then morph into 2012 in the $2400-$2800. Just a thought. That would complete a fairly consistent 5 wave EW pattern that began in Feb. Considering it's now hit 30% above the 200 dma, it's close to the 33% figure from the March 2008 blow off. Spring 2006 was even crazier at 40% > 200 dma. I like Adam Hamilton's comment that since gold has ignored seasonality during this weak season, it could just as easily ignore it during the Sept/Oct "strong" season.
I think gold has the potential to hit $1950-$2200 through September/October..... or even right here.... but then retrace to $1650 over several weeks to a couple months
Using my longer term momo indicator on a weekly chart of GLD, I show it (momo) peaked in 2006 at 91.49. In 2008 it hit 91.67. It hit 91.45 yesterday.
After peaking in 2006, the price did not exceed the peak for 15 months after dropping 23%. After peaking in 2008, the high was not broken for 18 months after dropping 32%. Are we looking at another 15+ months of consolidation with a possible 25% price correction?
Looking at NEM. Its close to breaking a nearly 1 yr downtrend. Target would be new highs.
Not new highs yet, but a $4 (7%) move from the time of writing.
<< <i>I think gold has the potential to hit $1950-$2200 through September/October..... or even right here.... but then retrace to $1650 over several weeks to a couple months
Using my longer term momo indicator on a weekly chart of GLD, I show it (momo) peaked in 2006 at 91.49. In 2008 it hit 91.67. It hit 91.45 yesterday.
After peaking in 2006, the price did not exceed the peak for 15 months after dropping 23%. After peaking in 2008, the high was not broken for 18 months after dropping 32%. Are we looking at another 15+ months of consolidation with a possible 25% price correction? >>
Those were not parabolic moves. And while it remains to be confirmed that this is a parabolic move, the evidence is pretty strong that it is, and if that's the case, your indicators aren't going to work the same.
Today's pullback is concerning, but it remains to be seen just how quickly the patter recovers, if it does. Certainly we had quite a few green daily candles, so a red one is certainly due. Also we're getting in some important gap filling.
In 2006, weekly RSI peaked at 85.83, was in high 84's this morn. In 2006, gold ran 30% in a few weeks. It has run 30% in the last few weeks.
If gold rips into a silver type of move in coming weeks, it will suffer the same indignity. This bounce on silver simply retraced 62% of the May downdraft. MACD has not confirmed the move. Unless silver pushes higher in the next few weeks, it will most likely test the May/June supports.
<< <i>Might be a good idea to pick up some gold puts (they're pretty cheap right now) in advance of this Friday. >>
Too late. The banksters already raided the store today.
GLD filled 3 gaps on the way down to $1750's today. Sinclair's $1764 number is the general holding area right now. More concerning is the monster $1665-$1680 gold gap left back in early August when gold gapped up on Sunday night overseas. SLV has a nice gap at around $35.50 which equates to around $36.50 silver. Both of those are now potential targets before this correction runs it course. Whatever the Bernank comes out with by Friday won't matter much as the last licks into gold and silver will probably come tomorrow. It would be like kicking a dead horse. But pretty much routine for an end of month options expiration week coupled with TBond auctions and a FED meeting. With gold 30% > 200 dma it was a perfect storm opportunity for the Banksters to conduct a raid. I didn't think they'd get gold and silver down so fast in just 2 days! so a great big booyah to the banksters. The final kick in the butt was the 27% CME rate hike announced after close today that was no doubt leaked in advance. But it was't like traders didn't know that was coming down the pike.
Fwiw both silver and GDXJ put in broadening top patterns over the past 2 weeks. I sort of ignored them because Gold and GDX were not confirming. But in hindsight, those 2 weaker sisters were basically saying they had run out of gas trying to keep up with their big brothers. The volume up-spike Monday in the GDX/SPY and GDXJ/SPY ratios was another warning that something was up. It could have been attributed to a run higher by the miners but it was actually an exhaustion signal considering how high gold was.
GLL is an easy play for those looking to profit on the gold takedown (climbing in the aftermarket). monitor gold closely, I'm looking for PMs to rally with a QE announcement. consider the margin requirement "takedown" as an attempt slow down Friday's PM reaction.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Sorry about not posting much lately, I am quite busy, which is a good thing, but I still keep up with my positions and reading everything I can.
So things were looking bad last week, but actually turned out quite OK. If you look at any weekly chart for any othe parabolic moves, there are a few weekly candles that look just like this week's candle. Thursday night it was looking like we could be in for more downside - a bigger retracement - but Friday's move really diminished those odds, closing at around 1830 and above any retracement levels for the drop (dead cat bounces). So in some ways, the upside is favored here.
McLellan and a lot of others seems to disagree and are looking for either a bigger retracement or a longer consolidation. A 38.2% retracement of the entire move up from ~1180 would require a revisit to 1600, and provide a nice set up for a move to 2400-2500.
So we still need to be cautious while we figure out what's going on here, as it could easily go either way.
<< <i>No QE announcement. Gonna be lots of construction jobs from the Outer Banks to Portland, ME in the next few weeks. >>
QE 3 is here. He slid it right past everyone when he announced an extension of FED policy to hold the Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% until mid 2013. To keep rates low the FED creates new money to buy Treasuries. The money machine is back in business, make no mistake about it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
NOT. It closed Friday's afternoon session at 1831.7. ATM, it is 1828, down a few dollars. At best, it has been up almost $10 with a high today of 1841.5.
Comments
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
I'd bet there is a concerted effort by Friday to try and improve that 233-1 ratio. Still have some inviting gaps in GLD and SLV sitting about 5-8% lower.
candleglance chart
The volume on this rally for GDX, GDXJ, GLD, SLV, SPY, etc has been declining. VXO is close to retesting the 20 dma, VXX showing a flag pattern, GSR filled a gap at 44.
Some inconsistencies here.
roadrunner
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this.
<< <i>
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. It would be in their best interest to knock the price down and have many of those call options expire worthless, or at least be able to balance out by making the puts worth more. Unfortunately for them, an equibrium price (value of calls = value of puts) would be about 155, so they know they're going to get hit, but would like to minimize the pain.
Part of the problem the market makers are facing is that there is very little open interest on the put side. Today though volume is much heavier relative to open interest on the put side, so it may be that the MM's are gaining back some ground.
Looking at NEM. Its close to breaking a nearly 1 yr downtrend. Target would be new highs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. >>
Are there stats on how much the market makers own vs. individual or institutional investors? The thing is that while there is opportunity for the market makers to reduce their liability if they can manipulate the market lower, the option pricing is all based on mathematical models such that all of the profit they make over time makes up for the few ocassions when this kind of thing happens. Like a casino doesn't get too worried when someone gets lucky and takes them for $1M on a blackjack table because their profit over the rest of the year (or more) makes up for it and they are profitable over time, even if they may have a bad month.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. It would be in their best interest to knock the price down and have many of those call options expire worthless ...
>>
I am surprised a market veteran makes such comments. The market makers make their money on the spread between bid and ask, not on directional bets. Option market makers are almost always delta neutral. For the many option novices, delta neutral strategies don't care which way the market goes, while making money from time decay. When option market makers sell calls, they immediately make offsetting trades in the underlying, other options or with futures to stay at delta neutral. Market makers aren't plungers, they rarely make directional bets. They certainly don't have $700m worth of naked exposure in short calls, if they lost that much on the calls they almost certainly made the same $700m back in the underlying or with futures with their offsetting trades.
With all that, yes, the option "pin" [a close right on a strike to make options go out worthless] is a popular event because it means a few less closing transactions for the market makers. However, that mostly saves a few cents on SEC fees per contract to close out the trades, usually not much directional up or down exposure.
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Are you suggesting this means something?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. . >>
Are you a conspiracy geek? There's no liability for specialists.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Just ran the numbers quick in GLD options. There is about $700,000,000 in in-the-money call options vs $3,000,000 in in-the-money puts. Ouch!!! >>
Not sure what you're saying here. Who owns the losing side of those options? Any time a market moves in one direction so quickly you're going to have a scenario like this. >>
This is a potential massive liability for the specialists or market makers. If the call owners decided to "cash out", the market makers would have to shell out a lot of money. . >>
Are you a conspiracy geek? There's no liability for specialists. >>
RT, PC, et al, I guess we'll just have to assume that I know something that most do not.
My definition of conspiracy is trying to hide the truth. This is much different than creating the truth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>RT, PC, et al, I guess we'll just have to assume that I know something that most do not.
Thanks for sharing and participating in the forum.
------------------------------
I was going to write last night that gold looked like it was at a point where either we were going to start a triangle consolidation or burst higher. Looks like we're bursting higher. Evidence continues to mount - and the economical client confirms - that we just might well be in the midst of a runaway move in gold where it will behave like silver a few months ago, continuing higher and higher and ignoring the need to retrace and overbought indicators. Such a move will probably last until late September and could carry gold to $2300 or higher, even $3000 but I don't want to get too crazy.
My near term target is 1890-1900.
And like gold during the silver move, I don't expect silver to really participate. Expect it to severely lag, although it may meander up to and beyond $50.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>VXX up 14% this morning. Got in at premarket.
Nice! Got another monster box lined up for that yet?
<< <i>
<< <i>VXX up 14% this morning. Got in at premarket.
Nice! Got another monster box lined up for that yet? >>
Not at these prices, will donate any proceeds to AGQ at a later time. Eggs haven't hatched yet, too early to count chickens.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>VXX up 14% this morning. Got in at premarket.
Back out this afternoon with a quick 17% more "chickens."
Too bad Scottrade won't let me daytrade trade like this with my IRA cash accounts. Probably for the better.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Support for Friday is at 1815.3, 1843.7, resistance at 1860.5, 1905.7. I wouldn't recommend going into this weekend without being loaded up on paper gold.
OTOH, stock indexes look awful, more downside coming. Not sure where that leaves gold stocks.
The parabolic move is here.
BTW, silver had a nice breakout as well, it will be free to head higher, but the real action should be in gold.
But it's apparent miners are still not getting the love. Harmony gold just took a 2nd quarter net loss on record gold prices. Mining costs far
exceeded production revenue even with record high gold prices. The game is not simple for these guys. Then how do you figure in the risk
that your mine will be nationalized, shutdown, depermitted, flooded out, electricity or fuel cut off, extended labor strike, bank notes recalled, etc.
GDX is now wrestling with a double top and neckline at 61.6 that was formed over the past 3-4 months. Gotta get through this area to shift to a
very bullish mode targeting 69 or so. If not, back down they go. GDXJ's chart pattern looks a lot more bearish. During gold's latest run these
past 6 trading days it has outperformed GDX 8% to 6%. The miner's rising costs continue to make them a far less leveraged play than if costs could
be controlled. Those cash costs of $300-$400/oz of a year or two ago have gone up to $600-$800/oz for a lot of miners. And the all-in costs are probably
$800-$1,000. While the miner's margins are increasing, it's not fast enough to offset all the additional risks inherent to miners...just ask Chavez.
roadrunner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The trading in India on Saturday closed with a Premium of about 30 dollars over the NY close for Gold and a Premium of about 1 dollar over the NY close for Silver
roadrunner
Kitco thread on Israeli market trading that close today. Seems like prices on silver and gold are higher.
Sorry link doesn't work. You have to go to the Kitco site, tab gold forums, then gold discussion forum, and find thread for Israeli Market.
They don't even allow linking the forums tab.
roadrunner
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=90418
fyi: Dec Gold just opened up $10.90
And how about silver? Opening up over $1, bonking up against $44.00...
Platinum also joining the party, up $18 at the moment, Palladium up $5...
toss tons of money at the problem. The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
roadrunner
Last week wasn't so great for Europe. How much worse can that get? Quite a bit worse, I suspect.
Germany's got to be pretty fed up by now.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
Last week wasn't so great for Europe. How much worse can that get? Quite a bit worse, I suspect.
Germany's got to be pretty fed up by now. >>
Many reports say they are facing a crisis equivalent to the "liquidity crisis" we faced here in 2008. Europe's going to have to make some major announcements soon... some sort of QE, or kicking some members out of the EU, or something like that.
<< <i>
<< <i>The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
Last week wasn't so great for Europe. How much worse can that get? Quite a bit worse, I suspect.
Germany's got to be pretty fed up by now. >>
Many reports say they are facing a crisis equivalent to the "liquidity crisis" we faced here in 2008. Europe's going to have to make some major announcements soon... some sort of QE, or kicking some members out of the EU, or something like that. >>
European Union is close to no longer being a union. Members are starting to realize they need their own unique currency and control over that currency - some to print more and some to quit giving to the others.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
This morning we had a nice retracement of the move up since Friday morning, which has recharged the short term charts for more progress as well. The only thing to be wary of is a sudden retracement of a much larger move, but I don't think that's coming just yet.
ZSL is a great very-short term instrument but the problem is when it turns strong in one direction or another. The other problem, as many others have pointed out, is the compounding effect of losses. People who bought in at $15, $18, $22, or more and are still holding, have just gotten killed.
getting hit. Silver is just a total wildcard at times.
Dug deeper into those M2 comments that I had found on another blog and found out that the $155 BILL jump in one week was during the stock market crash in July.
So boosting M2 at that time made a lot of sense and may not have had any other sinister motive. But that week was in fact just a bit shy of the $175 BILL weeks that
were seen following 9-11 and the Sept 2008 Lehman bust. For the past month M2 has increased by around $250 BILL (2.8% monthly change).
roadrunner
<< <i>In the last reported week, M2 grew at a faster pace then anytime since 9-11 and Lehman's failure week. Something is brewing behind the scenes that is forcing the FED to
toss tons of money at the problem. The PM sector seems to be trying to sniff out something.
roadrunner >>
Its the same story as 3 years ago. The banks dont hold enough to cover even a minor run on them. Every dollar the FED prints just goes to make sure your checking account is whole. The destructive effects of the markets are greater than any central bank printing press.
I am a strong believer that GLD has been responsible for much of the movement in spot prices. Now, are traders looking at the GLD or $gold chart?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
With this kind of energy and momentum, we could be looking at $2100 by the end of the month, at which point we'll probably see a mega-retracement lasting a week or so, before a final blowoff to $2500 or so at the end of Sept.
You mean the same GLD that George Soros bailed out of back in April?
Which chart does the rest of the world follow GLD or Gold? (ie Asia, Australia, South America, Europe, Africa, etc.)
I think gold has the potential to hit $1950-$2200 through September/October..... or even right here.... but then retrace to $1650 over several weeks to a couple months.
Final wave up could then morph into 2012 in the $2400-$2800. Just a thought. That would complete a fairly consistent 5 wave EW pattern that began in Feb.
Considering it's now hit 30% above the 200 dma, it's close to the 33% figure from the March 2008 blow off. Spring 2006 was even crazier at 40% > 200 dma.
I like Adam Hamilton's comment that since gold has ignored seasonality during this weak season, it could just as easily ignore it during the Sept/Oct "strong" season.
roadrunner
Using my longer term momo indicator on a weekly chart of GLD, I show it (momo) peaked in 2006 at 91.49. In 2008 it hit 91.67. It hit 91.45 yesterday.
After peaking in 2006, the price did not exceed the peak for 15 months after dropping 23%. After peaking in 2008, the high was not broken for 18 months after dropping 32%. Are we looking at another 15+ months of consolidation with a possible 25% price correction?
Looking at NEM. Its close to breaking a nearly 1 yr downtrend. Target would be new highs.
Not new highs yet, but a $4 (7%) move from the time of writing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I think gold has the potential to hit $1950-$2200 through September/October..... or even right here.... but then retrace to $1650 over several weeks to a couple months
Using my longer term momo indicator on a weekly chart of GLD, I show it (momo) peaked in 2006 at 91.49. In 2008 it hit 91.67. It hit 91.45 yesterday.
After peaking in 2006, the price did not exceed the peak for 15 months after dropping 23%. After peaking in 2008, the high was not broken for 18 months after dropping 32%. Are we looking at another 15+ months of consolidation with a possible 25% price correction? >>
Those were not parabolic moves. And while it remains to be confirmed that this is a parabolic move, the evidence is pretty strong that it is, and if that's the case, your indicators aren't going to work the same.
Today's pullback is concerning, but it remains to be seen just how quickly the patter recovers, if it does. Certainly we had quite a few green daily candles, so a red one is certainly due. Also we're getting in some important gap filling.
Time will tell.
In 2006, weekly RSI peaked at 85.83, was in high 84's this morn. In 2006, gold ran 30% in a few weeks. It has run 30% in the last few weeks.
If gold rips into a silver type of move in coming weeks, it will suffer the same indignity. This bounce on silver simply retraced 62% of the May downdraft. MACD has not confirmed the move. Unless silver pushes higher in the next few weeks, it will most likely test the May/June supports.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Might be a good idea to pick up some gold puts (they're pretty cheap right now) in advance of this Friday. >>
Too late. The banksters already raided the store today.
GLD filled 3 gaps on the way down to $1750's today. Sinclair's $1764 number is the general holding area right now.
More concerning is the monster $1665-$1680 gold gap left back in early August when gold gapped up on Sunday night overseas.
SLV has a nice gap at around $35.50 which equates to around $36.50 silver. Both of those are now potential targets before this correction
runs it course. Whatever the Bernank comes out with by Friday won't matter much as the last licks into gold and silver will probably come tomorrow.
It would be like kicking a dead horse. But pretty much routine for an end of month options expiration week coupled with TBond auctions and a FED meeting.
With gold 30% > 200 dma it was a perfect storm opportunity for the Banksters to conduct a raid. I didn't think they'd get gold and silver down so fast in just 2 days!
so a great big booyah to the banksters.
But it was't like traders didn't know that was coming down the pike.
Fwiw both silver and GDXJ put in broadening top patterns over the past 2 weeks. I sort of ignored them because Gold and GDX were not confirming. But in hindsight,
those 2 weaker sisters were basically saying they had run out of gas trying to keep up with their big brothers. The volume up-spike Monday in the GDX/SPY and GDXJ/SPY
ratios was another warning that something was up. It could have been attributed to a run higher by the miners but it was actually an exhaustion signal considering how high
gold was.
roadrunner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Annual PPT meeting in OBX cancelled due to mandatory evacuation. I was looking forward to sitting on the beach in 100mph winds.
Meeting rescheduled till next month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So things were looking bad last week, but actually turned out quite OK. If you look at any weekly chart for any othe parabolic moves, there are a few weekly candles that look just like this week's candle. Thursday night it was looking like we could be in for more downside - a bigger retracement - but Friday's move really diminished those odds, closing at around 1830 and above any retracement levels for the drop (dead cat bounces). So in some ways, the upside is favored here.
McLellan and a lot of others seems to disagree and are looking for either a bigger retracement or a longer consolidation. A 38.2% retracement of the entire move up from ~1180 would require a revisit to 1600, and provide a nice set up for a move to 2400-2500.
So we still need to be cautious while we figure out what's going on here, as it could easily go either way.
<< <i>No QE announcement. Gonna be lots of construction jobs from the Outer Banks to Portland, ME in the next few weeks. >>
QE 3 is here. He slid it right past everyone when he announced an extension of FED policy to hold the Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% until mid 2013. To keep rates low the FED creates new money to buy Treasuries. The money machine is back in business, make no mistake about it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Gold is up about $32 right now. >>
NOT. It closed Friday's afternoon session at 1831.7. ATM, it is 1828, down a few dollars. At best, it has been up almost $10 with a high today of 1841.5.