<< <i>Some stats if anyone is willing to investigate further...
As of Fridays close the percentage of stocks trading above the 50dma on the Nas, DOW and S&P500 were 12.5, 10 and 3.8 respectively. >>
Yeah, I saw that on Friday and other than the bottom of the crash in 2008, the S&P hasn't been any lower than 3.8%. Remarkably low sentiment.
Gold was strong on tonight's open but odds are high that the gap gets filled pretty soon. That's a huge gap to leave open. Silver was smart and has just slowly meandered up. Just a couple bucks shy of $1700.
roadrunner >>
Today those percentages are 5.5, 0 and 0.40. Percentages above the 200dma are 13, 13 and 8.
<< <i>I'll have to work the numbers, but it may be mathematically impossible to reach 300. >>
don't bother, i was not serious and should have included the .
I plan on a quick exit once the volatility starts to settle. VXX has always been a good quick play for me when the markets see turmoil.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
VXX play looks like a great one. At $36+ after hours, looks likely to head higher.
Gold is off to the races again tonight. $1750-1800 was a very common target and I'd have to say we're headed for the high end. There has been ZERO resistance the last several days. I think we'll look back on these last two weeks as the inflection point where gold really took off as desperate governments around the world print money and go crazy with the only move they have left - the printing press. There is a severe liquitidy problem in the markets which has been getting worse ever since QE2 ended. These kind of events will also *start* to cajole middle-class J6P into metals, or at least start to get them interested so the real mania can begin. I've noticed a lot more "office talk" about PMs lately by people not-previously interested in PMs. Cyclically, the gold uptrend can possibly last until Aug 17, so we have a ways to go.
As far as stocks, we're now looking at an 11 day down-trend, and that trend is exhausted. A bounce MUST be coming. 38.2% would take SP500 to just under 1200, and might be a good short term play.
What I'm sort of expecting to happen is for the government to officially announce some sort of QE3 or QE3-equivalent. I can't see the manipulators letting the blood too much longer, so this kind of announcement could fuel a quick rebound, and ratchet up the VIX even more.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If silver was at best staying even today, and the SM was taking a bath, it would be expected that silver miners would get hit hard.
On the other hand, gold miners stayed about even because of gold's $50 surge, ignoring the SM carnage. However, if they sit there long enough, they might catch a cold as well and finally join the downdraft. If a $50 gold surge only kept them even, then that's not displaying strength. Gold is surging another $50 tonight....so that should help keep gold miners even for another day....lol.
The share accumulation in GDX/HUI has been tailing off for weeks. While the money flow index took a bounce up today, the accum/distribution still fell. SIL has the same chart look if you plug it in at the top. Miners are usually not a safe haven. But Rangold has done pretty good recently to dispell that notion....but that's more an exception. On the good side, the rout usually ends when the MFI bottoms on the 20 line. SIL is pretty close at 25. But it could take another few days or a week to finally settle. Money flows have been leaving SIL for the past 3 weeks.
In looking at the Nikkei chart it's now looking like their March flash/tsunami/quake crash was just a harbinger of internal market weakness. That large dip is now a target and probably has been all along. Funny how those deep dips often become the next target.
Great trade derryb...........stellar. Big props........
As for silver I'm actually impressed that it has hung in there as well as it has. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I think silver's got another month or two of consolidating that last huge move before it will be ready to go anywhere. I'm surprised gold hasn't pulled it up a few dollars higher, but I don't think it's ready to go anywhere. At best, we'll see a gradual move back up to $50.
Also just read that Tuesday is an FOMC meeting announcement at 2:15EST. That will keep things interesting...
Stockpocalypse! symbolic of a new world order What makes the situation even worse, is at the very time the markets need the U.S. to be seen as a decisive, bold leader, lawmakers instead have acted dysfunctional stumblebums. Thank God I am 90% in cash!
Many successful BST transactions ajia (x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes, mariner67, and Mikes coins
Last night gold hit $1780+ and that brought the GSR to 44.8. Since then it's added another point to 45.9 as silver weakened more. The 46-50 range is looking better which also coincides with the 3-4 leg of the last major drop to 31. Corrections often revisit that 3-4 leg before continuing. Gold up another $50 last night....that should at least keep goldminers even for another day....lol. But a little bounce in the S&P might assist them too. With oil and mining cost dropping like a stone this week, and gold rising, that makes producing miners all that much more profitable, assuming the host nation doesn't pile on mining taxes, royalities, or just takes the mine over.
Gold is now 22% above the 200 dma. The first time above 17% since early last year. Gold's runs have tended to peak in the 25-33% range. It's awfully close now. And those peaks have been shrinking so 22% might yet qualify. If using the 25-30% figures, that could put gold at $1819 to $1935. Recall that silver went to a whopping 70% on it's May run where it usually has peaked in the 35-50% range. Since this enivironment is much closer to that of March 2008 than the spring 2006 or November 2009 peaks, it's quite possible gold takes the higher road and aims for >30% on this run. But also be aware that these peaks vs the 200 dma seem to be declining with each new peak. So maybe 22% is the new 25%.
Update: and with this morning's pullback, already back to 19%.
This move is above the two channels that I usually have drawn on my longer term charts. But this move is so swift and powerful and has room left for more upside. Current targets are $1846 with a possibility of $1882.
Bailed this morning at 34.40. Although the actual profits have to remain in my IRAs, went ahead and treated myself to an ASE monster box at 66% of what I profited.
I'll let the Fed drive it back down and await another entry point unless of course AGQ offers a good buy-in first.
Some days peanuts, some days shells. Finally got some peanuts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That was a nice trade comrade derryb! I followed it when you rec'd it a week or so. I didn't act. My cajones are made of pot metal. I had other coals in the fire. I'm happy to boast that yesterday when the Dow and other indexes where down 5-7%, my portfolio was up .53% not including PM's. Which is nice.
Bailed this morning at 34.40. Although the actual profits have to remain in my IRAs, went ahead and treated myself to an ASE monster box at 66% of what I profited.
I'll let the Fed drive it back down and await another entry point unless of course AGQ offers a good buy-in first.
Some days peanuts, some days shells. Finally got some peanuts.
>>
Very nice. Frankly I was worried for you. You would have gotten your a$$ handed to you if you held overnight tonight.
the key to safer trading with any IRA account is to only buy with settled funds. When you make a sale (any sale) the funds are immediately available as cash and you can make another purchase. However all IRA account sales have a settlement date (usually 4-5 days). If you make a purchase with your cash and it is still considered unsettled funds you are prevented from selling your new purchase until the funds that you used to make the purchase (from the previous sale) are settled. This can keep you locked into an equity while it tanks. Funds are considered settled on the settlement date and you are free to make the sale on that date, or after, if you used unsettled funds to make the purchase.
to those that trade with their IRA account make sure you understand unsettled funds, that you know if you are making a purchase with unsettled funds and if you do you know the settlement date (when you are free to sell the new purchase). Talk to your account holder if you are unclear on any of this. You are not physically prevented from make a prohibited sale, it is up to you to know your settlement date and prevent yourself from making a prohibited sale. Most brokers will allow you to screw up one time before placing trade limits on your account.
Had I bought my VXX yesterday with funds from an earlier sale that were still unsettled I would not have been able to sell the VXX today. I normally wait for a sale to settle before I use the funds for the next purchase. This requires me to sit in cash for a few days, but provides me the safety of being able to immediately dump the new purchase. Occasionally I will make a purchase a day or two early knowing I only have to wait a day or two before I can sell. I would like to have bought AGQ at 181 this afternoon, but because my VXX sale will not settle for a few days, I will wait and hope to get AGQ later at a good price with settled, or almost settled funds.
Rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) or margin accounts where no margin agreement between the broker and the account holder has be initiated. Violations of the rule are considered "free rides" in violation of Regulation T.
Yours truely,
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>the key to safer trading with any IRA account is to only buy with settled funds. When you make a sale (any sale) the funds are immediately available as cash and you can make another purchase. However all IRA account sales have a settlement date (usually 4-5 days). If you make a purchase with your cash and it is still considered unsettled funds you are prevented from selling your new purchase until the funds that you used to make the purchase (from the previous sale) are settled. This can keep you locked into an equity while it tanks. Funds are considered settled on the settlement date and you are free to make the sale on that date, or after, if you used unsettled funds to make the purchase.
to those that trade with their IRA account make sure you understand unsettled funds, that you know if you are making a purchase with unsettled funds and if you do you know the settlement date (when you are free to sell the new purchase). Talk to your account holder if you are unclear on any of this. You are not physically prevented from make a prohibited sale, it is up to you to know your settlement date and prevent yourself from making a prohibited sale. Most brokers will allow you to screw up one time before placing trade limits on your account.
Had I bought my VXX yesterday with funds from an earlier sale that were still unsettled I would not have been able to sell the VXX today. I normally wait for a sale to settle before I use the funds for the next purchase. This requires me to sit in cash for a few days, but provides me the safety of being able to immediately dump the new purchase. Occasionally I will make a purchase a day or two early knowing I only have to wait a day or two before I can sell. I would like to have bought AGQ at 181 this afternoon, but because my VXX sale will not settle for a few days, I will wait and hope to get AGQ later at a good price with settled, or almost settled funds.
Reason for the settled funds rule is to limit day trading with an IRA account.
Yours truely, >>
I thought that you could always get out of a fund / stock, but you may have to wait three days to get into another stock. But, you are never stuck in a stock.
<< <i>I thought that you could always get out of a fund / stock, but you may have to wait three days to get into another stock. But, you are never stuck in a stock. >>
No waiting period to get in, waiting period to get out if what you purchase was purchased with unsettled funds. Violations are considered a "free ride" under Regulation T. Basically, brokers are providing a courtesy in letting you make a purchase with unsettled funds, so long as you hold the purchase until the funds used to make it have settled. Violation of regulation T may very well put you in a position where future purchases cannot be made until the funds have settled. Most brokers will give you a warning the first time you violate Regulation T.
Broker can't prevent you from violating the rule which means you can't be "forced" to hold a position. To keep you from violating it again, however, broker will most likely limit your future purchases to settled funds only. The courtesy they provide you to purchase with unsettled funds is to your advantage and they are required to take it away if you violate Regulation T.
The Regulation T rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) and does not affect margin accounts (non IRA accounts where a margin agreement has been signed).
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
dontippet, that was my recent experience. I was able to buy and sell right away but the proceeds from the sale were held until everything settled. They never communicated a warning to me, just an automatic hold. I'm sure every broker is slightly different.
Sort of looked like that after the FED's initial announcement didn't quite get the bang they wanted the PPT entered. Once the Dow dove a few hundred points down it looked like the PPT came to the rescue to end the day on a "strong" note. Everything "fixed" and the bull market resumes. They were also probably trying to turn gold down as well.
Yeah, I get a chuckle when I hear a few of the guys on tv stating that the fed should be fighting the gold price. I sympathize with where they're coming from, but it's kind of like David going against Goliath without God on his side.
I've placed 100's of 1000s of trades and have NEVER been prevented from closing a position. Either in an IRA or otherwise.
Stock trades settle in 3 business days. Options in 1 business day. I also trade options in my IRA, and not just covered calls. I sell to open puts and buy longs calls/puts.
If you make a daytrade on unsettled funds in your IRA, you will get restricted, to just using settled cash for 90 days.
derryb/meatloaf/ironballs, you should be able to buy anything in your IRA today and sell it tomorrow (not today), unless your account is already subject to the 90 day restriction.
<< <i>dontippet, that was my recent experience. I was able to buy and sell right away but the proceeds from the sale were held until everything settled. They never communicated a warning to me, just an automatic hold. I'm sure every broker is slightly different. >>
This is exactly what I've seen too. Basically, you can't use the same money for a purchase more than once in a three day period.
<< <i>I thought that you could always get out of a fund / stock, but you may have to wait three days to get into another stock. But, you are never stuck in a stock. >>
No waiting period to get in, waiting period to get out if what you purchase was purchased with unsettled funds. Violations are considered a "free ride" under Regulation T. Basically, brokers are providing a courtesy in letting you make a purchase with unsettled funds, so long as you hold the purchase until the funds used to make it have settled. Violation of regulation T may very well put you in a position where future purchases cannot be made until the funds have settled. Most brokers will give you a warning the first time you violate Regulation T.
Broker can't prevent you from violating the rule which means you can't be "forced" to hold a position. To keep you from violating it again, however, broker will most likely limit your future purchases to settled funds only. The courtesy they provide you to purchase with unsettled funds is to your advantage and they are required to take it away if you violate Regulation T.
The Regulation T rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) and does not affect margin accounts (non IRA accounts where a margin agreement has been signed). >>
Makes sense. Obviously, my broker does not allow me to use unsettled funds to purchase a stock and that is probably a good thing.
<< <i>Major indexes show the 50dma about to sink below the 200dma. That has to set off some computers. >>
The 200dma is still upward sloping. Could turn negative in a month. Equity markets probably trade in a wide sideways range for a few weeks. Then all MAs will be downward sloping and the market can decide if it wants to collapse in the typical Sept/Oct timeframe.
<< <i>I've placed 100's of 1000s of trades and have NEVER been prevented from closing a position. Either in an IRA or otherwise.
Stock trades settle in 3 business days. Options in 1 business day. I also trade options in my IRA, and not just covered calls. I sell to open puts and buy longs calls/puts.
If you make a daytrade on unsettled funds in your IRA, you will get restricted, to just using settled cash for 90 days.
derryb/meatloaf/ironballs, you should be able to buy anything in your IRA today and sell it tomorrow (not today), unless your account is already subject to the 90 day restriction. >>
I've never had settlement issue with options or stock positions in my self directed IRA accountor any other account either through Options Xpress. I used to be a high frenquency trader up until last year. However, I have heard others echo derry's story. Is this a broker thing? I really never looked into it. Options Xpress did state that it can take up to 3 business days to settle but it always did same day. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>the key to safer trading with any IRA account is to only buy with settled funds. When you make a sale (any sale) the funds are immediately available as cash and you can make another purchase. However all IRA account sales have a settlement date (usually 4-5 days). If you make a purchase with your cash and it is still considered unsettled funds you are prevented from selling your new purchase until the funds that you used to make the purchase (from the previous sale) are settled. This can keep you locked into an equity while it tanks. Funds are considered settled on the settlement date and you are free to make the sale on that date, or after, if you used unsettled funds to make the purchase.
to those that trade with their IRA account make sure you understand unsettled funds, that you know if you are making a purchase with unsettled funds and if you do you know the settlement date (when you are free to sell the new purchase). Talk to your account holder if you are unclear on any of this. You are not physically prevented from make a prohibited sale, it is up to you to know your settlement date and prevent yourself from making a prohibited sale. Most brokers will allow you to screw up one time before placing trade limits on your account.
Had I bought my VXX yesterday with funds from an earlier sale that were still unsettled I would not have been able to sell the VXX today. I normally wait for a sale to settle before I use the funds for the next purchase. This requires me to sit in cash for a few days, but provides me the safety of being able to immediately dump the new purchase. Occasionally I will make a purchase a day or two early knowing I only have to wait a day or two before I can sell. I would like to have bought AGQ at 181 this afternoon, but because my VXX sale will not settle for a few days, I will wait and hope to get AGQ later at a good price with settled, or almost settled funds.
Rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) or margin accounts where no margin agreement between the broker and the account holder has be initiated. Violations of the rule are considered "free rides" in violation of Regulation T.
... >>
This is true and I learned the hard way during the silver smackdown. Buy, sell, buy....now you have to hold for 3days to settle. Accidentally, one time after that I sold an hour too soon and got a call from the broker, saying, "don't do that again or you'll be in big trouble!"
Or, "We'll be happy to set you up a margin account and you can be a day trader all you want"
Regulation T. and Free Ride, by Edgar Winter group, not Meatloaf
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
back into VXX at 32.60 Wed. with the wife's IRA. Watching the S&P 500 closely; 1200 is my signal for a bear market rally and time to dump VXX. Otherwise I expect the VXX to pan out. Felt daring and picked up some ZSL also.
<< <i>you should be able to buy anything in your IRA today and sell it tomorrow (not today), unless your account is already subject to the 90 day restriction. >>
No restriction, normal procedure for Scottrade IRA (cash) account. It is my understanding that the Regulation T/Free Ride rule applies to all cash (non-margin) accounts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So gold took a break the last few days and has accomplished a nice 32% retracement of one of the last big moves. Gold could retrace more of the move meaning more downside, below $1700, but if gold is in runaway mode, as I suspect it is, gold is now ready to resume the regularly scheduled program early next week. If this happens though, this means that this is one of those "incredible moves" where a market runs and just keeps running beyond where most people expect it to quit. But this is just the environment where that can happen. If you believe in market cycles and patterns, there does appear to be quite a few weeks left in this move. The immediate target would be $1855, but $2500 targets are being thrown out pretty commonplace.
Model shows that the upper channel was hit for dollar adjusted gold. Several gaps still open lower, especially the large one at $1660-$1680. Might get filled this week, or after the next large price run up. Found it interesting that an article from back in March between trader Roger Weigand and silver bug David Morgan resurfaced this week stating that informed and reliable connected sources to the govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would be "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means. Maybe cohodk can chime in following his annual meeting with the movers and shakers to see if there's any whiff of truth to this.
Model shows that the upper channel was hit for dollar adjusted gold. Several gaps still open lower, especially the large one at $1660-$1680. Might get filled this week, or after the next large price run up. Found in interesting that an article from back in March between trader Roger Weigand and silver bug David Morgan resurfaced this week stating that informed and reliable connected sources to the govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means. Maybe cohodk can chime in following his annual meeting with the movers and shakers to see if there's any whiff of truth on this from his end.
roadrunner >>
govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means.
RR, that REALLY bold statement to throw out there coming from you.
It was a bold suggestion. And I was shocked as heck to see Weigand and Morgan come out with that article. It does give me thought to ponder if that means silver, plat, pall, mining shares, are possibly safer places to be. I believe it was storm888 that has mentioned that the govt isn't going to let inflation or a dollar devaluation event deprive the banks of their "destiny" of mortgage profits. The homeowners are not going to be allowed to pay pennies on their dollars for their homes....well maybe the first 5-10% through the porthole might benefit. But the window will be quickly closed so that home owners don't get something for nothing. Only bankers and the govt are allowed to get that deal. So I have to wonder why should gold hoarders be any different? Should they get something for "nothing" while average US citizens get sliced and diced under a depreciating dollar? The insiders will be allowed to trade out before any such event occurs. The other 95% (just like in 1933-34) will probably be caught in the trap.....assuming this train of thought occurs. And gold bugs will be villified and paraded around as the source of economic ills for the past decade. Oil speculators too. I'm not saying it will happen. But I get concerned when stuff like this comes from fairly well respected traders and insiders. If Jim Willie or Jim Sinclair starts to say this, then I'd be ultra concerned.
Even if gold were not allowed to be held by the public, then they would shift to the next best thing, plat, silver, gem stones, jewelry, rhodium, pall, oils, rare earths, semi-numismatic gold/silver coins, gold and silver mining shares, etc. And if that were taken away too for "the good of the national interest?" Then next would come base metals, grains, softs, arable land, collectibles of all types (art, antiques, etc.), water, . Then might come hoarding key consumables that act like barter money (liquor, cigs, guns, ammo, home supplies, tools, etc.). The brunt of this being the govt trying to shift citizens into standard US equities, bonds, and real estate that would "grow" the economy. Or at least that would be their stated reason. But I think long before we got to this last stage, the system would basically distort and collapse upon itself.
the govt isn't going to let inflation or a dollar devaluation event deprive the banks of their "destiny" of mortgage profits. The homeowners are not going to be allowed to pay pennies on their dollars for their homes....well maybe the first 5-10% through the porthole might benefit. But the window will be quickly closed so that home owners don't get something for nothing.
please elaborate on this.. what will happen, what "window" will close, what is expected to change, that will affect mortgage balances?
If I have a half a million dollar mortgage, I expect to pay a half a million dollars plus interest over the life of the loan. In the past, there's been inflation, but the number of dollars owed on a mortgage hasn't changed; if folks don't refinance and take out equity, the loan gets smaller and easier to pay off with salary increases.
<< <i>the govt isn't going to let inflation or a dollar devaluation event deprive the banks of their "destiny" of mortgage profits. The homeowners are not going to be allowed to pay pennies on their dollars for their homes....well maybe the first 5-10% through the porthole might benefit. But the window will be quickly closed so that home owners don't get something for nothing.
please elaborate on this.. what will happen, what "window" will close, what is expected to change, that will affect mortgage balances?
If I have a half a million dollar mortgage, I expect to pay a half a million dollars plus interest over the life of the loan. In the past, there's been inflation, but the number of dollars owed on a mortgage hasn't changed; if folks don't refinance and take out equity, the loan gets smaller and easier to pay off with salary increases.
I ask again, what could change that? >>
I believe Roadrunner is referring to a hyperinflation (50%+ inflation) scenario, under which the value of a fixed price liability such as a mortgage would be rapidly diminished by a hyper-inflating currency. As has done been done in other countries which have gone through hyperinflation, the government could revalue the dollar by creating a 'new dollar' and dropping two or three zeros from the denomination. They would then mandate all prior contracts to be paid in 'new dollars'. As a way of dealing with rapidly appreciating assets such as PM, raising the capital gains rate to 90% while forcing you to prove your basis would have the same basic effect as confiscation and would be far more easy to implement.
The govt has no problem with the Buffets' and Gates' making a fortune in the stock market....or even the general public making great money in a bubblicious RE market. But they will not stand for even a significant % of the public (5% or 10%??) making a windfall in precious metals. Just like they would not stand for people getting off lightly paying down mortgages with hyper-inflated dollars. The PM's game looks all hunk dory right now. But there will be huge icebergs tossed into the shipping lanes as things proceed.
All I'm saying is that the people won't be allowed to skate on mortgages any more than they will be allowed to get a free ride on the gold train. The early birds will catch their worms before the doors are shut. I'm not sure what awaits the later arrivals.
The govt has no problem with the Buffets' and Gates' making a fortune in the stock market....or even the general public making great money in a bubblicious RE market. But they will not stand for even a significant % of the public (5% or 10%??) making a windfall in precious metals. Just like they would not stand for people getting off lightly paying down mortgages with hyper-inflated dollars. The PM's game looks all hunk dory right now. But there will be huge icebergs tossed into the shipping lanes as things proceed.
All I'm saying is that the people won't be allowed to skate on mortgages any more than they will be allowed to get a free ride on the gold train. The early birds will catch their worms before the doors are shut. I'm not sure what awaits the later arrivals. >>
I'm not so sure about all of that. But first let me point out that in the first confiscation people were allowed to keep collectible gold, so I think the value of all pre-1933 gold and non-bullion modern US Mint products would skyrocket as those should be exempt. And many would probably take their money from gold and convert it into silver, plat, and palladium, sending those up. All speculation of course. Others have made a reasonable argument that the government would simply confiscate the ETFs, as that would be so much easier to do logistically and would net a great amount.
BTW, there must be something to that rumor, or at least the rumor is spreading. Premiums on pre-1933 material that I keep an eye on seems to have gone up pretty good in the last week or so, based on PCGS price guide changes (although I question how current or accurate it is). RR, I know you follow it more carefully, what if anything have you noticed? Perhaps the price guide is just catching up with the POG movements...
As for paying off mortgages, as I generally recall the "new" currency that is created in a HI scenario generally devalues significantly after it is created, quickly losing 1/2 to 3/4 of it's value or more rather quickly. I don't think it's common that any "new" currencies increase in value after being created (someone comment if you have contrary examples). The Euro really struggled for its first few years and that was a "voluntary" new currency. So while you may not be able to pay off your mortgage for pennies, you probably will be able to pay it off for dimes or quarters which is still pretty good. And for a really good look at mortgages and inflation, just consider any home purchased in the 70's, when an average home was $30-50k, compared to now where an average home is about $100k. So while the short term may be unpredictable, I think it's pretty realistic that today's $100k home will be going for about $400k in 30 years.
Of course the punititive taxation scenario is probably the most realistic, as that would be quick and easy to implement.
As far as the near term outlook, The 1750 level is the indicator I'm watching. A break over 1750 means the up-trend is ready to resume. A failure would indicate a larger retracement is in store... At this point it appears that the downside scenario is more likely, but it's hard to say what surprises the financial markets or Washington has in store for us this week.
This week is clear of bond auctions. But Friday is options expiration. Might have an effect on GDX/miners.
I'm not so sure about all of that. But first let me point out that in the first confiscation people were allowed to keep collectible gold, so I think the value of all pre-1933 gold and non-bullion modern US Mint products would skyrocket as those should be exempt. And many would probably take their money from gold and convert it into silver, plat, and palladium, sending those up. All speculation of course. Others have made a reasonable argument that the government would simply confiscate the ETFs, as that would be so much easier to do logistically and would net a great amount.
The govt never had to go to court to determine what was meant by "collectible" gold. Based on how the Langbord case just went I wouldn't assume best case condition on collectible gold coins. Patriot Act 2 already established by law a foothold to call bullion coins anything that gets at least 50% of its value from the intrinsic metal. Right now you need to go MS65 $20 Libs and MS67 Saints to get free of that restriction. Everything else could be declared non-collectible. Just sayin'. It would also take all the $10's under MS64, $5's under MS63. That would account for the majority of old classic gold in the people's hands. It's no secret that the small premiums that $20's bring right now make them less a collectible and pretty much bullion...not much different than an ASE. Morgan silver dollars are the same way under MS63. And Walkers and Mercs in bags of 90% can't exactly be called collectible when their premiums to spot are probably under 1-5%. Just being the devil's advocate here. I've always been concerned about that PA2 bill and what it was setting us up for down the road. Yeah, it went in for money launderers, but the real reason is probably much deeper. Gemstones, plat, pall, rhodium also covered under that clause. How collectible is someone's "collection" when they have a pile of XF/AU $20 Libs with many duplicates of 1904? One would at least have to try and assemble a date set from 1880-1907 to show some collectibility, or maybe some type sets of each denomination. A pile of MS61-64 1924-1928 Saints doesn't seem much like a collection....but I guess one could argue that an original roll of 1879 BU halves isn't collectible for that reason either, and we know that it is.
The IRS regs have often been interpreted to mean a >15% premium implies a non-bullion gold or silver coin. At $1800 gold that would MS64 Saints and higher. From here all the circs will remain within 0-10% of bullion prices. If gold were confiscated and people shifted into the other metals, I think they a confiscation or banning on those would soon follow since they are in very short supply (silver and PGMs) and could easily fall under strategic metals/rare earths that the govt will need to control going forward. If they took the gold confiscation route, they would not leave an easy out into silver and the PGMs as fiat would still flow to areas the govt deems counter-productive. I could see right now the case for taking those metals under a strategic option based on what China is doing. And that would then lead to people piling into gold....which would lead to declaring it a strategic monetary metal as well.
The collectors were lucky in 1933 to have famous collector William Woodin as Treasury Secretary. It was only because of him that the collector coin clause was inserted in FDR's EO. Unfortunately, WW served less than a year due to ill health and passed in 1934. He would have been a strong advocate during the rest of the 1930's and could have played a positive role concerning the 1933 Saints. I believe it was WW who gave the govt those $50 Unions about 20 yrs earlier and received a trunkload of patterns in return. He was quite aware and approved of the trading of coins w/o paperwork via the mint's various windows. I believe he owned a 1933 Saint as well. He could have just walked to the cashier's window and traded for one, just like Izzy. Or maybe he asked the mint director to get him one.
At a show this week I saw the weekly changes in gray sheet from $1671 gold to $1740 this past week. Prices of $20's basically spiked $200. I was looking at a very pretty MS63 ogh saint that was probably a 64 and was quoted at $1975. I thought that "felt" high considering gold had dropped $80. But that's still only a 16% premium to spot. The spreads on MS63 and 64 saints bottomed around 8-12% in May/June. So they've once again moved up again to the 17-20% range. This is typical behavior as the price of gold goes up. When it finally corrects after this current run, 90% classic gold premiums will shrink again. In looking at generic gold, most of the $1's, $2-1/2's have seen very little movement. $5 Libs in MS63 and 64 have moved up around 30%. $10 Indians in MS63 moved up a whopping 60% while $10 Libs in 63 maybe moved up 20-30%. MS63 $10 Indians were the winners of this current May-August move. I recommended them a while back when they were in the $1000-$1100 range or cyclical bottom lows based on the past 5 yrs. They are a classic design, in an affordable grade, with much eye appeal, and an affinity for promotion. All that and they still have nearly 1/2 ounce of gold in them. At $1600-$1650 they are $300 ahead of the $10 Libs...now the better value imo.
I think the gain in housing prices from 1970 to 2007 was on the backs of foreign nations...ie the US having the reserve currency. The perfect storm conditions that existed during that period allowed the US to take full advantage of the leverage in the dollar. Those conditions will never occur again unless we are allowed to maintain the world's reserve currency another 40 yrs. I don't think that's going to happen. And if that doesn't happen then it will take 40 yrs of fiat currency printing once again to move those home prices up 4X. And I don't think the middle class is going to put up with 40 yrs of debasing the currency once again and the debt load that it brings with it.
Model shows that the upper channel was hit for dollar adjusted gold. Several gaps still open lower, especially the large one at $1660-$1680. Might get filled this week, or after the next large price run up. Found in interesting that an article from back in March between trader Roger Weigand and silver bug David Morgan resurfaced this week stating that informed and reliable connected sources to the govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means. Maybe cohodk can chime in following his annual meeting with the movers and shakers to see if there's any whiff of truth on this from his end.
roadrunner >>
Meeting in 2 weeks.
Regarding home price increases---I generally agree with RR. It is very possible that the rate of inflation over the next 40 years will be lower than the last 40 years. Right now home values are back to 2002 levels, so a consolidation is probable, i.e, the bulk of the declines has been realized. We may even see some increase--interpreted as inflation by some--over the next 5 years. But in general, the highs(in the extreme areas--Phoenix, Vegas, Cali, Miami) that were reached in 2006, will not be exceeded in 2016, 2026, or probably 2036.
The dollar value of in the money calls options exceeds the dollar value of in the money put options by at least 20:1. I havent run the numbers but a quick glance looks to be at least $250 million that would have to come from the market markets pockets. A $40-50 drop would make the market makers feel much better.
<< <i>The govt never had to go to court to determine what was meant by "collectible" gold. Based on how the Langbord case just went I wouldn't assume best case condition on collectible gold coins. Patriot Act 2 already established by law a foothold to call bullion coins anything that gets at least 50% of its value from the intrinsic metal. Right now you need to go MS65 $20 Libs and MS67 Saints to get free of that restriction. Everything else could be declared non-collectible. Just sayin'. It would also take all the $10's under MS64, $5's under MS63. That would account for the majority of old classic gold in the people's hands. It's no secret that the small premiums that $20's bring right now make them less a collectible and pretty much bullion...not much different than an ASE. Morgan silver dollars are the same way under MS63. And Walkers and Mercs in bags of 90% can't exactly be called collectible when their premiums to spot are probably under 1-5%. Just being the devil's advocate here. I've always been concerned about that PA2 bill and what it was setting us up for down the road. Yeah, it went in for money launderers, but the real reason is probably much deeper. Gemstones, plat, pall, rhodium also covered under that clause. How collectible is someone's "collection" when they have a pile of XF/AU $20 Libs with many duplicates of 1904? One would at least have to try and assemble a date set from 1880-1907 to show some collectibility, or maybe some type sets of each denomination. A pile of MS61-64 1924-1928 Saints doesn't seem much like a collection....but I guess one could argue that an original roll of 1879 BU halves isn't collectible for that reason either, and we know that it is. >>
I think it becomes too problematic to define collectibility without being generously broad. You can say "all coins with 50% premium over spot" but the real problem is that the pricing is too subjective even then. What price sheet do you use? Does the government really want to be in the business of appraising coin collections, or defending lawsuits over whether a coin's prmium is 49% or 51% or whether that spot devalues the coin (or that toning improves the coin) enough to make it collectible or non-collectible? Confiscating bullion will suffice for the government's need, I don't think they need to "scrape the barrel" for marginally collectible material.
<< <i>The IRS regs have often been interpreted to mean a >15% premium implies a non-bullion gold or silver coin. At $1800 gold that would MS64 Saints and higher. From here all the circs will remain within 0-10% of bullion prices. If gold were confiscated and people shifted into the other metals, I think they a confiscation or banning on those would soon follow since they are in very short supply (silver and PGMs) and could easily fall under strategic metals/rare earths that the govt will need to control going forward. If they took the gold confiscation route, they would not leave an easy out into silver and the PGMs as fiat would still flow to areas the govt deems counter-productive. I could see right now the case for taking those metals under a strategic option based on what China is doing. And that would then lead to people piling into gold....which would lead to declaring it a strategic monetary metal as well. >>
Still, I think it's a pretty safe argument that just about anything over 50 years old is collectible just for the virtue that it is old. Although I would hardly define junk silver as collectible, people do collect those coins and not just for the silver content.
<< <i>The collectors were lucky in 1933 to have famous collector William Woodin as Treasury Secretary. It was only because of him that the collector coin clause was inserted in FDR's EO. Unfortunately, WW served less than a year due to ill health and passed in 1934. He would have been a strong advocate during the rest of the 1930's and could have played a positive role concerning the 1933 Saints. I believe it was WW who gave the govt those $50 Unions about 20 yrs earlier and received a trunkload of patterns in return. He was quite aware and approved of the trading of coins w/o paperwork via the mint's various windows. I believe he owned a 1933 Saint as well. He could have just walked to the cashier's window and traded for one, just like Izzy. Or maybe he asked the mint director to get him one. >>
The realm of coin collecting, especially gold is usually with the affluent, and the affluent tend to have some political connections. I'd like to hope that this would help protect collectible coins in the future.
<< <i>I think the gain in housing prices from 1970 to 2007 was on the backs of foreign nations...ie the US having the reserve currency. The perfect storm conditions that existed during that period allowed the US to take full advantage of the leverage in the dollar. Those conditions will never occur again unless we are allowed to maintain the world's reserve currency another 40 yrs. I don't think that's going to happen. And if that doesn't happen then it will take 40 yrs of fiat currency printing once again to move those home prices up 4X. And I don't think the middle class is going to put up with 40 yrs of debasing the currency once again and the debt load that it brings with it. >>
I was mostly referring to the price movements from 1970-2000, before RE went crazy, as that was still remarkable and the market was sane. I'm not sure the being a reserve currency will have that much bearing on RE prices going forward. The reality is that once the inventory glut is gone, the cost of construction becomes support for housing prices... Homes aren't going to sell for less than the cost to build in a healthy, balanced market. So then it comes down to the cost of labor to build but moreso the cost of materials, which I expect to (at least) steadily increase over the next few decades.
Having completed a successful retracement and with the break over 1750, gold appears like it's going to charge higher, despite its overbought condition. support is at 1756 and resistance at 1781 and 1794.7.
An SP 500 close over 1200 today tells me the bear market rally has begun. Walk lightly, don't put your foot in the trap.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>An SP 500 close over 1200 today tells me the bear market rally has begun. Walk lightly, don't put your foot in the trap. >>
That's what I'm thinking...sell all the way up to 1285 and then step back. The 200 is flattening. If it is indeed resistance this time then we could have an interesting Fall. Pun intended.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Some stats if anyone is willing to investigate further...
As of Fridays close the percentage of stocks trading above the 50dma on the Nas, DOW and S&P500 were 12.5, 10 and 3.8 respectively. >>
Yeah, I saw that on Friday and other than the bottom of the crash in 2008, the S&P hasn't been any lower than 3.8%. Remarkably low sentiment.
Gold was strong on tonight's open but odds are high that the gap gets filled pretty soon. That's a huge gap to leave open. Silver was smart and has just slowly meandered up.
Just a couple bucks shy of $1700.
roadrunner >>
Today those percentages are 5.5, 0 and 0.40. Percentages above the 200dma are 13, 13 and 8.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I'll have to work the numbers, but it may be mathematically impossible to reach 300. >>
don't bother, i was not serious and should have included the
I plan on a quick exit once the volatility starts to settle. VXX has always been a good quick play for me when the markets see turmoil.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Gold is off to the races again tonight. $1750-1800 was a very common target and I'd have to say we're headed for the high end. There has been ZERO resistance the last several days. I think we'll look back on these last two weeks as the inflection point where gold really took off as desperate governments around the world print money and go crazy with the only move they have left - the printing press. There is a severe liquitidy problem in the markets which has been getting worse ever since QE2 ended. These kind of events will also *start* to cajole middle-class J6P into metals, or at least start to get them interested so the real mania can begin. I've noticed a lot more "office talk" about PMs lately by people not-previously interested in PMs. Cyclically, the gold uptrend can possibly last until Aug 17, so we have a ways to go.
As far as stocks, we're now looking at an 11 day down-trend, and that trend is exhausted. A bounce MUST be coming. 38.2% would take SP500 to just under 1200, and might be a good short term play.
What I'm sort of expecting to happen is for the government to officially announce some sort of QE3 or QE3-equivalent. I can't see the manipulators letting the blood too much longer, so this kind of announcement could fuel a quick rebound, and ratchet up the VIX even more.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
<< <i>I asked about silver mining stocks earlier. The ETF SIL went down over 7% today. Any clues as to why? This is the one miner that I am in. >>
They all took a hit today
Silver must not be in the list of safehavens.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
On the other hand, gold miners stayed about even because of gold's $50 surge, ignoring the SM carnage. However, if they sit there long enough,
they might catch a cold as well and finally join the downdraft. If a $50 gold surge only kept them even, then that's not displaying strength.
Gold is surging another $50 tonight....so that should help keep gold miners even for another day....lol.
The share accumulation in GDX/HUI has been tailing off for weeks. While the money flow index took a bounce up today, the accum/distribution still fell.
SIL has the same chart look if you plug it in at the top. Miners are usually not a safe haven. But Rangold has done pretty good recently to dispell that
notion....but that's more an exception. On the good side, the rout usually ends when the MFI bottoms on the 20 line. SIL is pretty close at 25.
But it could take another few days or a week to finally settle. Money flows have been leaving SIL for the past 3 weeks.
GDX
In looking at the Nikkei chart it's now looking like their March flash/tsunami/quake crash was just a harbinger of internal market weakness. That large dip is now a
target and probably has been all along. Funny how those deep dips often become the next target.
roadrunner
As for silver I'm actually impressed that it has hung in there as well as it has. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Also just read that Tuesday is an FOMC meeting announcement at 2:15EST. That will keep things interesting...
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
coincides with the 3-4 leg of the last major drop to 31. Corrections often revisit that 3-4 leg before continuing. Gold up another $50 last night....that should at least keep goldminers
even for another day....lol. But a little bounce in the S&P might assist them too. With oil and mining cost dropping like a stone this week, and gold rising, that makes producing
miners all that much more profitable, assuming the host nation doesn't pile on mining taxes, royalities, or just takes the mine over.
Gold is now 22% above the 200 dma. The first time above 17% since early last year. Gold's runs have tended to peak in the 25-33% range. It's awfully close now. And those
peaks have been shrinking so 22% might yet qualify. If using the 25-30% figures, that could put gold at $1819 to $1935. Recall that silver went to a whopping 70% on it's May run
where it usually has peaked in the 35-50% range. Since this enivironment is much closer to that of March 2008 than the spring 2006 or November 2009 peaks, it's quite possible gold
takes the higher road and aims for >30% on this run. But also be aware that these peaks vs the 200 dma seem to be declining with each new peak. So maybe 22% is the new 25%.
Update: and with this morning's pullback, already back to 19%.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>All in - VXX (12,750 SH at 32.00) >>
Bailed this morning at 34.40. Although the actual profits have to remain in my IRAs, went ahead and treated myself to an ASE monster box at 66% of what I profited.
I'll let the Fed drive it back down and await another entry point unless of course AGQ offers a good buy-in first.
Some days peanuts, some days shells.
Finally got some peanuts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What the heck is VXX?
I knew it would happen.
chart
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>VXX sorta tracks the VIX (S&P volatility/fear index). does well in a declining S&P 500.
chart >>
That was a nice trade comrade derryb! I followed it when you rec'd it a week or so. I didn't act. My cajones are made of pot metal.
<< <i>
<< <i>All in - VXX (12,750 SH at 32.00) >>
Bailed this morning at 34.40. Although the actual profits have to remain in my IRAs, went ahead and treated myself to an ASE monster box at 66% of what I profited.
I'll let the Fed drive it back down and await another entry point unless of course AGQ offers a good buy-in first.
Some days peanuts, some days shells.
Finally got some peanuts.
Very nice. Frankly I was worried for you. You would have gotten your a$$ handed to you if you held overnight tonight.
Might have to pronounced you, Sir Ironballs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
to those that trade with their IRA account make sure you understand unsettled funds, that you know if you are making a purchase with unsettled funds and if you do you know the settlement date (when you are free to sell the new purchase). Talk to your account holder if you are unclear on any of this. You are not physically prevented from make a prohibited sale, it is up to you to know your settlement date and prevent yourself from making a prohibited sale. Most brokers will allow you to screw up one time before placing trade limits on your account.
Had I bought my VXX yesterday with funds from an earlier sale that were still unsettled I would not have been able to sell the VXX today. I normally wait for a sale to settle before I use the funds for the next purchase. This requires me to sit in cash for a few days, but provides me the safety of being able to immediately dump the new purchase. Occasionally I will make a purchase a day or two early knowing I only have to wait a day or two before I can sell. I would like to have bought AGQ at 181 this afternoon, but because my VXX sale will not settle for a few days, I will wait and hope to get AGQ later at a good price with settled, or almost settled funds.
Rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) or margin accounts where no margin agreement between the broker and the account holder has be initiated. Violations of the rule are considered "free rides" in violation of Regulation T.
Yours truely,
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>the key to safer trading with any IRA account is to only buy with settled funds. When you make a sale (any sale) the funds are immediately available as cash and you can make another purchase. However all IRA account sales have a settlement date (usually 4-5 days). If you make a purchase with your cash and it is still considered unsettled funds you are prevented from selling your new purchase until the funds that you used to make the purchase (from the previous sale) are settled. This can keep you locked into an equity while it tanks. Funds are considered settled on the settlement date and you are free to make the sale on that date, or after, if you used unsettled funds to make the purchase.
to those that trade with their IRA account make sure you understand unsettled funds, that you know if you are making a purchase with unsettled funds and if you do you know the settlement date (when you are free to sell the new purchase). Talk to your account holder if you are unclear on any of this. You are not physically prevented from make a prohibited sale, it is up to you to know your settlement date and prevent yourself from making a prohibited sale. Most brokers will allow you to screw up one time before placing trade limits on your account.
Had I bought my VXX yesterday with funds from an earlier sale that were still unsettled I would not have been able to sell the VXX today. I normally wait for a sale to settle before I use the funds for the next purchase. This requires me to sit in cash for a few days, but provides me the safety of being able to immediately dump the new purchase. Occasionally I will make a purchase a day or two early knowing I only have to wait a day or two before I can sell. I would like to have bought AGQ at 181 this afternoon, but because my VXX sale will not settle for a few days, I will wait and hope to get AGQ later at a good price with settled, or almost settled funds.
Reason for the settled funds rule is to limit day trading with an IRA account.
Yours truely,
I thought that you could always get out of a fund / stock, but you may have to wait three days to get into another stock. But, you are never stuck in a stock.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
<< <i>I thought that you could always get out of a fund / stock, but you may have to wait three days to get into another stock. But, you are never stuck in a stock. >>
No waiting period to get in, waiting period to get out if what you purchase was purchased with unsettled funds. Violations are considered a "free ride" under Regulation T. Basically, brokers are providing a courtesy in letting you make a purchase with unsettled funds, so long as you hold the purchase until the funds used to make it have settled. Violation of regulation T may very well put you in a position where future purchases cannot be made until the funds have settled. Most brokers will give you a warning the first time you violate Regulation T.
Broker can't prevent you from violating the rule which means you can't be "forced" to hold a position. To keep you from violating it again, however, broker will most likely limit your future purchases to settled funds only. The courtesy they provide you to purchase with unsettled funds is to your advantage and they are required to take it away if you violate Regulation T.
The Regulation T rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) and does not affect margin accounts (non IRA accounts where a margin agreement has been signed).
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
p.s. Anyone get a peice of that HISTORIC swissie (or even long treasuries) move today after the fed statement?
I was short puts but not long calls.
came to the rescue to end the day on a "strong" note. Everything "fixed" and the bull market resumes. They were also probably trying to turn gold down as well.
roadrunner
Stock trades settle in 3 business days. Options in 1 business day. I also trade options in my IRA, and not just covered calls. I sell to open puts and buy longs calls/puts.
If you make a daytrade on unsettled funds in your IRA, you will get restricted, to just using settled cash for 90 days.
derryb/meatloaf/ironballs, you should be able to buy anything in your IRA today and sell it tomorrow (not today), unless your account is already subject to the 90 day restriction.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>dontippet, that was my recent experience. I was able to buy and sell right away but the proceeds from the sale were held until everything settled. They never communicated a warning to me, just an automatic hold. I'm sure every broker is slightly different. >>
This is exactly what I've seen too. Basically, you can't use the same money for a purchase more than once in a three day period.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
<< <i>
<< <i>I thought that you could always get out of a fund / stock, but you may have to wait three days to get into another stock. But, you are never stuck in a stock. >>
No waiting period to get in, waiting period to get out if what you purchase was purchased with unsettled funds. Violations are considered a "free ride" under Regulation T. Basically, brokers are providing a courtesy in letting you make a purchase with unsettled funds, so long as you hold the purchase until the funds used to make it have settled. Violation of regulation T may very well put you in a position where future purchases cannot be made until the funds have settled. Most brokers will give you a warning the first time you violate Regulation T.
Broker can't prevent you from violating the rule which means you can't be "forced" to hold a position. To keep you from violating it again, however, broker will most likely limit your future purchases to settled funds only. The courtesy they provide you to purchase with unsettled funds is to your advantage and they are required to take it away if you violate Regulation T.
The Regulation T rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) and does not affect margin accounts (non IRA accounts where a margin agreement has been signed). >>
Makes sense. Obviously, my broker does not allow me to use unsettled funds to purchase a stock and that is probably a good thing.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
<< <i>Major indexes show the 50dma about to sink below the 200dma. That has to set off some computers. >>
The 200dma is still upward sloping. Could turn negative in a month. Equity markets probably trade in a wide sideways range for a few weeks. Then all MAs will be downward sloping and the market can decide if it wants to collapse in the typical Sept/Oct timeframe.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I've placed 100's of 1000s of trades and have NEVER been prevented from closing a position. Either in an IRA or otherwise.
Stock trades settle in 3 business days. Options in 1 business day. I also trade options in my IRA, and not just covered calls. I sell to open puts and buy longs calls/puts.
If you make a daytrade on unsettled funds in your IRA, you will get restricted, to just using settled cash for 90 days.
derryb/meatloaf/ironballs, you should be able to buy anything in your IRA today and sell it tomorrow (not today), unless your account is already subject to the 90 day restriction. >>
I've never had settlement issue with options or stock positions in my self directed IRA accountor any other account either through Options Xpress. I used to be a high frenquency trader up until last year. However, I have heard others echo derry's story. Is this a broker thing? I really never looked into it. Options Xpress did state that it can take up to 3 business days to settle but it always did same day. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>the key to safer trading with any IRA account is to only buy with settled funds. When you make a sale (any sale) the funds are immediately available as cash and you can make another purchase. However all IRA account sales have a settlement date (usually 4-5 days). If you make a purchase with your cash and it is still considered unsettled funds you are prevented from selling your new purchase until the funds that you used to make the purchase (from the previous sale) are settled. This can keep you locked into an equity while it tanks. Funds are considered settled on the settlement date and you are free to make the sale on that date, or after, if you used unsettled funds to make the purchase.
to those that trade with their IRA account make sure you understand unsettled funds, that you know if you are making a purchase with unsettled funds and if you do you know the settlement date (when you are free to sell the new purchase). Talk to your account holder if you are unclear on any of this. You are not physically prevented from make a prohibited sale, it is up to you to know your settlement date and prevent yourself from making a prohibited sale. Most brokers will allow you to screw up one time before placing trade limits on your account.
Had I bought my VXX yesterday with funds from an earlier sale that were still unsettled I would not have been able to sell the VXX today. I normally wait for a sale to settle before I use the funds for the next purchase. This requires me to sit in cash for a few days, but provides me the safety of being able to immediately dump the new purchase. Occasionally I will make a purchase a day or two early knowing I only have to wait a day or two before I can sell. I would like to have bought AGQ at 181 this afternoon, but because my VXX sale will not settle for a few days, I will wait and hope to get AGQ later at a good price with settled, or almost settled funds.
Rule is in effect for cash accounts (such as IRAs) or margin accounts where no margin agreement between the broker and the account holder has be initiated. Violations of the rule are considered "free rides" in violation of Regulation T.
... >>
This is true and I learned the hard way during the silver smackdown. Buy, sell, buy....now you have to hold for 3days to settle. Accidentally, one time after that I sold an hour too soon and got a call from the broker, saying, "don't do that again or you'll be in big trouble!"
Or, "We'll be happy to set you up a margin account and you can be a day trader all you want"
Regulation T. and Free Ride, by Edgar Winter group, not Meatloaf
<< <i>you should be able to buy anything in your IRA today and sell it tomorrow (not today), unless your account is already subject to the 90 day restriction. >>
No restriction, normal procedure for Scottrade IRA (cash) account. It is my understanding that the Regulation T/Free Ride rule applies to all cash (non-margin) accounts.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Model shows that the upper channel was hit for dollar adjusted gold. Several gaps still open lower, especially the large one at $1660-$1680. Might get filled this week, or
after the next large price run up. Found it interesting that an article from back in March between trader Roger Weigand and silver bug David Morgan resurfaced this week
stating that informed and reliable connected sources to the govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would be "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means. Maybe cohodk can chime in following his annual meeting with the movers and shakers to see if there's any whiff of truth to this.
roadrunner
<< <i>dollar adjusted gold model
Model shows that the upper channel was hit for dollar adjusted gold. Several gaps still open lower, especially the large one at $1660-$1680. Might get filled this week, or
after the next large price run up. Found in interesting that an article from back in March between trader Roger Weigand and silver bug David Morgan resurfaced this week
stating that informed and reliable connected sources to the govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means. Maybe cohodk can chime in following his annual meeting with the movers and shakers to see if there's any whiff of truth on this from his end.
roadrunner >>
govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means.
RR, that REALLY bold statement to throw out there coming from you.
shares, are possibly safer places to be. I believe it was storm888 that has mentioned that the govt isn't going to let inflation or a dollar devaluation event deprive the banks of their
"destiny" of mortgage profits. The homeowners are not going to be allowed to pay pennies on their dollars for their homes....well maybe the first 5-10% through the porthole might benefit. But the window will be quickly closed so that home owners don't get something for nothing. Only bankers and the govt are allowed to get that deal. So I have to wonder why should gold hoarders be any different? Should they get something for "nothing" while average US citizens get sliced and diced under a depreciating dollar? The insiders will be allowed to trade out before any such event occurs. The other 95% (just like in 1933-34) will probably be caught in the trap.....assuming this train of thought occurs. And gold bugs will be villified and paraded around as the source of economic ills for the past decade. Oil speculators too. I'm not saying it will happen. But I get concerned when stuff like this comes from fairly well respected traders and insiders. If Jim Willie or Jim Sinclair starts to say this, then I'd be ultra concerned.
Even if gold were not allowed to be held by the public, then they would shift to the next best thing, plat, silver, gem stones, jewelry, rhodium, pall, oils, rare earths, semi-numismatic gold/silver coins, gold and silver mining shares, etc. And if that were taken away too for "the good of the national interest?" Then next would come base metals, grains, softs, arable land, collectibles of all types (art, antiques, etc.), water, . Then might come hoarding key consumables that act like barter money (liquor, cigs, guns, ammo, home supplies, tools, etc.). The brunt of this being the govt trying to shift citizens into standard US equities, bonds, and real estate that would "grow" the economy. Or at least that would be their stated reason. But I think long before we got to this last stage, the system would basically distort and collapse upon itself.
roadrunner
"destiny" of mortgage profits. The homeowners are not going to be allowed to pay pennies on their dollars for their homes....well maybe the first 5-10% through the porthole might benefit. But the window will be quickly closed so that home owners don't get something for nothing.
please elaborate on this.. what will happen, what "window" will close, what is expected to change, that will affect mortgage balances?
If I have a half a million dollar mortgage, I expect to pay a half a million dollars plus interest over the life of the loan.
In the past, there's been inflation, but the number of dollars owed on a mortgage hasn't changed; if folks don't refinance and take out equity, the loan gets smaller and easier to pay off with salary increases.
I ask again, what could change that?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>the govt isn't going to let inflation or a dollar devaluation event deprive the banks of their
"destiny" of mortgage profits. The homeowners are not going to be allowed to pay pennies on their dollars for their homes....well maybe the first 5-10% through the porthole might benefit. But the window will be quickly closed so that home owners don't get something for nothing.
please elaborate on this.. what will happen, what "window" will close, what is expected to change, that will affect mortgage balances?
If I have a half a million dollar mortgage, I expect to pay a half a million dollars plus interest over the life of the loan.
In the past, there's been inflation, but the number of dollars owed on a mortgage hasn't changed; if folks don't refinance and take out equity, the loan gets smaller and easier to pay off with salary increases.
I ask again, what could change that? >>
I believe Roadrunner is referring to a hyperinflation (50%+ inflation) scenario, under which the value of a fixed price liability such as a mortgage would be rapidly diminished by a hyper-inflating currency. As has done been done in other countries which have gone through hyperinflation, the government could revalue the dollar by creating a 'new dollar' and dropping two or three zeros from the denomination. They would then mandate all prior contracts to be paid in 'new dollars'. As a way of dealing with rapidly appreciating assets such as PM, raising the capital gains rate to 90% while forcing you to prove your basis would have the same basic effect as confiscation and would be far more easy to implement.
The govt has no problem with the Buffets' and Gates' making a fortune in the stock market....or even the general public making great money in a bubblicious RE market.
But they will not stand for even a significant % of the public (5% or 10%??) making a windfall in precious metals. Just like they would not stand for people getting off lightly
paying down mortgages with hyper-inflated dollars. The PM's game looks all hunk dory right now. But there will be huge icebergs tossed into the shipping lanes as things proceed.
All I'm saying is that the people won't be allowed to skate on mortgages any more than they will be allowed to get a free ride on the gold train. The early birds will catch their worms
before the doors are shut. I'm not sure what awaits the later arrivals.
Xiphos trading has some interesting Dow charts from Friday (banks, retail, insurers, etc) - not pretty - looking for hints on how PM's might relate
roadrunner
<< <i>Vann put than very succintly. Thanks.
The govt has no problem with the Buffets' and Gates' making a fortune in the stock market....or even the general public making great money in a bubblicious RE market.
But they will not stand for even a significant % of the public (5% or 10%??) making a windfall in precious metals. Just like they would not stand for people getting off lightly
paying down mortgages with hyper-inflated dollars. The PM's game looks all hunk dory right now. But there will be huge icebergs tossed into the shipping lanes as things proceed.
All I'm saying is that the people won't be allowed to skate on mortgages any more than they will be allowed to get a free ride on the gold train. The early birds will catch their worms
before the doors are shut. I'm not sure what awaits the later arrivals. >>
I'm not so sure about all of that. But first let me point out that in the first confiscation people were allowed to keep collectible gold, so I think the value of all pre-1933 gold and non-bullion modern US Mint products would skyrocket as those should be exempt. And many would probably take their money from gold and convert it into silver, plat, and palladium, sending those up. All speculation of course. Others have made a reasonable argument that the government would simply confiscate the ETFs, as that would be so much easier to do logistically and would net a great amount.
BTW, there must be something to that rumor, or at least the rumor is spreading. Premiums on pre-1933 material that I keep an eye on seems to have gone up pretty good in the last week or so, based on PCGS price guide changes (although I question how current or accurate it is). RR, I know you follow it more carefully, what if anything have you noticed? Perhaps the price guide is just catching up with the POG movements...
As for paying off mortgages, as I generally recall the "new" currency that is created in a HI scenario generally devalues significantly after it is created, quickly losing 1/2 to 3/4 of it's value or more rather quickly. I don't think it's common that any "new" currencies increase in value after being created (someone comment if you have contrary examples). The Euro really struggled for its first few years and that was a "voluntary" new currency. So while you may not be able to pay off your mortgage for pennies, you probably will be able to pay it off for dimes or quarters which is still pretty good. And for a really good look at mortgages and inflation, just consider any home purchased in the 70's, when an average home was $30-50k, compared to now where an average home is about $100k. So while the short term may be unpredictable, I think it's pretty realistic that today's $100k home will be going for about $400k in 30 years.
Of course the punititive taxation scenario is probably the most realistic, as that would be quick and easy to implement.
I'm not so sure about all of that. But first let me point out that in the first confiscation people were allowed to keep collectible gold, so I think the value of all pre-1933 gold and non-bullion modern US Mint products would skyrocket as those should be exempt. And many would probably take their money from gold and convert it into silver, plat, and palladium, sending those up. All speculation of course. Others have made a reasonable argument that the government would simply confiscate the ETFs, as that would be so much easier to do logistically and would net a great amount.
The govt never had to go to court to determine what was meant by "collectible" gold. Based on how the Langbord case just went I wouldn't assume best case condition on collectible gold coins. Patriot Act 2 already established by law a foothold to call bullion coins anything that gets at least 50% of its value from the intrinsic metal. Right now you need to go MS65 $20 Libs and MS67 Saints to get free of that restriction. Everything else could be declared non-collectible. Just sayin'. It would also take all the $10's under MS64, $5's under MS63. That would account for the majority of old classic gold in the people's hands. It's no secret that the small premiums that $20's bring right now make them less a collectible and pretty much bullion...not much different than an ASE. Morgan silver dollars are the same way under MS63. And Walkers and Mercs in bags of 90% can't exactly be called collectible when their premiums to spot are probably under 1-5%. Just being the devil's advocate here. I've always been concerned about that PA2 bill and what it was setting us up for down the road. Yeah, it went in for money launderers, but the real reason is probably much deeper. Gemstones, plat, pall, rhodium also covered under that clause. How collectible is someone's "collection" when they have a pile of XF/AU $20 Libs with many duplicates of 1904? One would at least have to try and assemble a date set from 1880-1907 to show some collectibility, or maybe some type sets of each denomination. A pile of MS61-64 1924-1928 Saints doesn't seem much like a collection....but I guess one could argue that an original roll of 1879 BU halves isn't collectible for that reason either, and we know that it is.
The IRS regs have often been interpreted to mean a >15% premium implies a non-bullion gold or silver coin. At $1800 gold that would MS64 Saints and higher. From here all the circs will remain within 0-10% of bullion prices. If gold were confiscated and people shifted into the other metals, I think they a confiscation or banning on those would soon follow since they are in very short supply (silver and PGMs) and could easily fall under strategic metals/rare earths that the govt will need to control going forward. If they took the gold confiscation route, they would not leave an easy out into silver and the PGMs as fiat would still flow to areas the govt deems counter-productive. I could see right now the case for taking those metals under a strategic option based on what China is doing. And that would then lead to people piling into gold....which would lead to declaring it a strategic monetary metal as well.
The collectors were lucky in 1933 to have famous collector William Woodin as Treasury Secretary. It was only because of him that the collector coin clause was inserted in FDR's EO. Unfortunately, WW served less than a year due to ill health and passed in 1934. He would have been a strong advocate during the rest of the 1930's and could have played a positive role concerning the 1933 Saints. I believe it was WW who gave the govt those $50 Unions about 20 yrs earlier and received a trunkload of patterns in return. He was quite aware and approved of the trading of coins w/o paperwork via the mint's various windows. I believe he owned a 1933 Saint as well. He could have just walked to the cashier's window and traded for one, just like Izzy. Or maybe he asked the mint director to get him one.
At a show this week I saw the weekly changes in gray sheet from $1671 gold to $1740 this past week. Prices of $20's basically spiked $200. I was looking at a very pretty MS63 ogh saint that was probably a 64 and was quoted at $1975. I thought that "felt" high considering gold had dropped $80. But that's still only a 16% premium to spot. The spreads on MS63 and 64 saints bottomed around 8-12% in May/June. So they've once again moved up again to the 17-20% range. This is typical behavior as the price of gold goes up. When it finally corrects after this current run, 90% classic gold premiums will shrink again. In looking at generic gold, most of the $1's, $2-1/2's have seen very little movement. $5 Libs in MS63 and 64 have moved up around 30%. $10 Indians in MS63 moved up a whopping 60% while $10 Libs in 63 maybe moved up 20-30%. MS63 $10 Indians were the winners of this current May-August move. I recommended them a while back when they were in the $1000-$1100 range or cyclical bottom lows based on the past 5 yrs. They are a classic design, in an affordable grade, with much eye appeal, and an affinity for promotion. All that and they still have nearly 1/2 ounce of gold in them. At $1600-$1650 they are $300 ahead of the $10 Libs...now the better value imo.
I think the gain in housing prices from 1970 to 2007 was on the backs of foreign nations...ie the US having the reserve currency. The perfect storm conditions that existed during that period allowed the US to take full advantage of the leverage in the dollar. Those conditions will never occur again unless we are allowed to maintain the world's reserve currency another 40 yrs. I don't think that's going to happen. And if that doesn't happen then it will take 40 yrs of fiat currency printing once again to move those home prices up 4X. And I don't think the middle class is going to put up with 40 yrs of debasing the currency once again and the debt load that it brings with it.
roadrunner
<< <i>dollar adjusted gold model
Model shows that the upper channel was hit for dollar adjusted gold. Several gaps still open lower, especially the large one at $1660-$1680. Might get filled this week, or
after the next large price run up. Found in interesting that an article from back in March between trader Roger Weigand and silver bug David Morgan resurfaced this week
stating that informed and reliable connected sources to the govt were saying that sometime in 2011 gold would "confiscated" by $2000/oz in order to restabilize our monetary system....whatever all that means. Maybe cohodk can chime in following his annual meeting with the movers and shakers to see if there's any whiff of truth on this from his end.
roadrunner >>
Meeting in 2 weeks.
Regarding home price increases---I generally agree with RR. It is very possible that the rate of inflation over the next 40 years will be lower than the last 40 years. Right now home values are back to 2002 levels, so a consolidation is probable, i.e, the bulk of the declines has been realized. We may even see some increase--interpreted as inflation by some--over the next 5 years. But in general, the highs(in the extreme areas--Phoenix, Vegas, Cali, Miami) that were reached in 2006, will not be exceeded in 2016, 2026, or probably 2036.
The dollar value of in the money calls options exceeds the dollar value of in the money put options by at least 20:1. I havent run the numbers but a quick glance looks to be at least $250 million that would have to come from the market markets pockets. A $40-50 drop would make the market makers feel much better.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The govt never had to go to court to determine what was meant by "collectible" gold. Based on how the Langbord case just went I wouldn't assume best case condition on collectible gold coins. Patriot Act 2 already established by law a foothold to call bullion coins anything that gets at least 50% of its value from the intrinsic metal. Right now you need to go MS65 $20 Libs and MS67 Saints to get free of that restriction. Everything else could be declared non-collectible. Just sayin'. It would also take all the $10's under MS64, $5's under MS63. That would account for the majority of old classic gold in the people's hands. It's no secret that the small premiums that $20's bring right now make them less a collectible and pretty much bullion...not much different than an ASE. Morgan silver dollars are the same way under MS63. And Walkers and Mercs in bags of 90% can't exactly be called collectible when their premiums to spot are probably under 1-5%. Just being the devil's advocate here. I've always been concerned about that PA2 bill and what it was setting us up for down the road. Yeah, it went in for money launderers, but the real reason is probably much deeper. Gemstones, plat, pall, rhodium also covered under that clause. How collectible is someone's "collection" when they have a pile of XF/AU $20 Libs with many duplicates of 1904? One would at least have to try and assemble a date set from 1880-1907 to show some collectibility, or maybe some type sets of each denomination. A pile of MS61-64 1924-1928 Saints doesn't seem much like a collection....but I guess one could argue that an original roll of 1879 BU halves isn't collectible for that reason either, and we know that it is. >>
I think it becomes too problematic to define collectibility without being generously broad. You can say "all coins with 50% premium over spot" but the real problem is that the pricing is too subjective even then. What price sheet do you use? Does the government really want to be in the business of appraising coin collections, or defending lawsuits over whether a coin's prmium is 49% or 51% or whether that spot devalues the coin (or that toning improves the coin) enough to make it collectible or non-collectible? Confiscating bullion will suffice for the government's need, I don't think they need to "scrape the barrel" for marginally collectible material.
<< <i>The IRS regs have often been interpreted to mean a >15% premium implies a non-bullion gold or silver coin. At $1800 gold that would MS64 Saints and higher. From here all the circs will remain within 0-10% of bullion prices. If gold were confiscated and people shifted into the other metals, I think they a confiscation or banning on those would soon follow since they are in very short supply (silver and PGMs) and could easily fall under strategic metals/rare earths that the govt will need to control going forward. If they took the gold confiscation route, they would not leave an easy out into silver and the PGMs as fiat would still flow to areas the govt deems counter-productive. I could see right now the case for taking those metals under a strategic option based on what China is doing. And that would then lead to people piling into gold....which would lead to declaring it a strategic monetary metal as well. >>
Still, I think it's a pretty safe argument that just about anything over 50 years old is collectible just for the virtue that it is old. Although I would hardly define junk silver as collectible, people do collect those coins and not just for the silver content.
<< <i>The collectors were lucky in 1933 to have famous collector William Woodin as Treasury Secretary. It was only because of him that the collector coin clause was inserted in FDR's EO. Unfortunately, WW served less than a year due to ill health and passed in 1934. He would have been a strong advocate during the rest of the 1930's and could have played a positive role concerning the 1933 Saints. I believe it was WW who gave the govt those $50 Unions about 20 yrs earlier and received a trunkload of patterns in return. He was quite aware and approved of the trading of coins w/o paperwork via the mint's various windows. I believe he owned a 1933 Saint as well. He could have just walked to the cashier's window and traded for one, just like Izzy. Or maybe he asked the mint director to get him one. >>
The realm of coin collecting, especially gold is usually with the affluent, and the affluent tend to have some political connections. I'd like to hope that this would help protect collectible coins in the future.
<< <i>I think the gain in housing prices from 1970 to 2007 was on the backs of foreign nations...ie the US having the reserve currency. The perfect storm conditions that existed during that period allowed the US to take full advantage of the leverage in the dollar. Those conditions will never occur again unless we are allowed to maintain the world's reserve currency another 40 yrs. I don't think that's going to happen. And if that doesn't happen then it will take 40 yrs of fiat currency printing once again to move those home prices up 4X. And I don't think the middle class is going to put up with 40 yrs of debasing the currency once again and the debt load that it brings with it. >>
I was mostly referring to the price movements from 1970-2000, before RE went crazy, as that was still remarkable and the market was sane. I'm not sure the being a reserve currency will have that much bearing on RE prices going forward. The reality is that once the inventory glut is gone, the cost of construction becomes support for housing prices... Homes aren't going to sell for less than the cost to build in a healthy, balanced market. So then it comes down to the cost of labor to build but moreso the cost of materials, which I expect to (at least) steadily increase over the next few decades.
support is at 1756 and resistance at 1781 and 1794.7.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>An SP 500 close over 1200 today tells me the bear market rally has begun. Walk lightly, don't put your foot in the trap. >>
That's what I'm thinking...sell all the way up to 1285 and then step back. The 200 is flattening. If it is indeed resistance this time then we could have an interesting Fall. Pun intended.