PCGS and Redbook disagree

stevereecy

Hey guys,

There is a coin I'm interested in...its a 1943 Double Eye Jefferson in MS63 (PCGS slab). The 2012 Redbook puts its value at around $340 in that exact grade. But I just learned that the PCGS website puts its value at a paltry $140. It is not a full step coin

WTH?

Which guide is right? What does your gut tell you about value?

Steve

barrytrot

First rule: All guides are always wrong.

If you want better prices go to http://ha.com and look at auction realized prices. That will give you a better feel for fair values.

291fifth

How many collectors really care about a minor variety like that? Probably not many. It shouldn't even be listed in the Red Book.

In my opinion both valuations are much too high.

mingot

PCGS is closer. At that low a grade, though, the look pretty thinly traded so it's hard to come up with anything very exact.

Auction data for 64s, although still thin, looks like it is just a hair over redbook price for 63.

One thing -- I would be hard pressed to buy a PCGS63 nickel without reallllll good pictures. It could be a real dog.

Bankerbob56

In my experience the Redbook is typically alot higher in its valuations. Maybe it's just trying to make collectors "feel good" about the value of their collection?!

dbcoin

redbook data is possibly 1 year old. PCGS data is taken from over 20 auction sites and is more up to date. Use redbook for mintages and starting SWAGs for prices. The use PCGS and other auction sites. Then really look at the coin

CaptHenway

Perhaps the Redbook is using the Cherry Picker's Guide?

stevereecy

This is really amazing to me that the price can be off by more than half. This also makes it really difficult to make spot decisions without computer access unless you just have the prices for a series memorized (ideally), or you have to assing a safety factor to your SWAG price. But a 50% safety factor? Probably won't be able to buy coins if you do that.

keyman64

I'm not surprised. Cherrypickers' Guide is always wrong too. I rarely pay exactly what a price guide says. So what this basically means is that depending upon how many people want the coin at any given moment, the coin might sell for $50 or it might sell for $600. It is all about supply and demand. I've paid 3x guide for a coin and I know others around here have bettered that.

Edit: Heck if you happen to find it in a rare Doily Sample Slab it might cost $1500.

mingot

<< <i>This is really amazing to me that the price can be off by more than half. This also makes it really difficult to make spot decisions without computer access unless you just have the prices for a series memorized (ideally), or you have to assing a safety factor to your SWAG price. But a 50% safety factor? Probably won't be able to buy coins if you do that. >>



If you're specializing in a certain series you should probably work on a spreadsheet that has all of the coins you are interested in with pcgs price guide values - designation information (I put the full step percentages from the jefferson nickel analysist into my spreadsheet). I also tend to track auctions and keep my spreadsheet updated with recent hammer prices. The prices I have paid for things that I already own. At some point you get a fell for what percentage of any priceguide is right. Study study study and document the results of your study. The only real downside of this (depending on what you collect) is that armed with all of this information, you're probably not going to end up buying much at any shows (lol he wants THIS MUCH for THIS?!)

mingot

btw my "lol" comment is *really* based on my experience with what *I* collect. It's probably a much different story for, say, bust halves.

CaptHenway

Pricing in a highly specialized field can be very erratic. Back when I was SERIOUSLY collecting Honduras, certain dealers used to call me when they were offered rarities and ask me if I had it already. If not, they knew they could pay strong and offer it to me even stronger. If I already had it, they dropped their buy price cause they knew they might own it for a year or two. At the time there were probably five serious collectors of Honduras in the World.

JamesMurray

<< <i>This is really amazing to me that the price can be off by more than half. This also makes it really difficult to make spot decisions without computer access unless you just have the prices for a series memorized (ideally), or you have to assing a safety factor to your SWAG price. But a 50% safety factor? Probably won't be able to buy coins if you do that. >>



It sounds about right for the redbook,i soon learned approx 50% of value according to the redbook will win me the majority of auctions i compete in.

LindeDad

They usually let you look at one coin per day for free at coinfacts see what they have on it about past sales that is usually the source the PCGS price guide data.

dbcoin

<< <i>This is really amazing to me that the price can be off by more than half. This also makes it really difficult to make spot decisions without computer access unless you just have the prices for a series memorized (ideally), or you have to assing a safety factor to your SWAG price. But a 50% safety factor? Probably won't be able to buy coins if you do that. >>



Exactly. If you are a serious buyer, you need an iPhone or iPad with internet access and a subscription to CoinFacts. I am seeing more and more buyers and dealers at shows doing just that.

cmerlo1

I sold an ICG certified AU a while back on eBay for around $80.