Interesting longterm dollar chart posted by Jim Sinclair
FullCameo
Posts: 492
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FullCameo
Posts: 492
Comments
The first order of business is new wings so it can pull out and then to get the engine running again.
What we need here is a pilot willing to change.
OR, how about this fella:
quote from Krugman on ‘This Week’ this morning: “If we had the threat of war, had a military buildup, you’d be amazed at how fast this economy would recover.”
Whew
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
i think the USD is in a nosedive, but for now it has the ability (preceived and real) to pull out/up.
i don't know what to make of all of it, but a lot of stories in section C today in WSJ.
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Me no likey this pic.....
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The dollar index is higher today than it was 3 years ago. No euphemisms or hyperbole, just fact. >>
Thank you. It's always refreshing to get the fact.
i just hyper-link it for those not on his email list.
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<< <i>The dollar index is higher today than it was 3 years ago. No euphemisms or hyperbole, just fact. >>
Thank you. It's always refreshing to get the fact. >>
Big chuckle. Nice cherry pick and you found the proverbial needle in the haystack. Let me guess, the US dollar index was LOWER today then 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15......years ago. But wait a minute. I don't have to guess...
The facts
No euphemisms, no hyperbole, no spin.................Just the facts Jack. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The dollar index is higher today than it was 3 years ago. No euphemisms or hyperbole, just fact. >>
Thank you. It's always refreshing to get the fact. >>
Big chuckle. Nice cherry pick and you found the proverbial needle in the haystack. Let me guess, the US dollar index was LOWER today then 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15......years ago. But wait a munute. I don't have to guess...
The facts
No euphemisms, no hyperbole, no spin.................Just the facts Jack. MJ >>
Like he said...the $ index is higher today than it was 3 years ago... so what's your point?
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>He (Sinclair) seems to be preparing his flock for a flash crash in gold. then a rise, then more QE to help the markets, then an out of control spin of the USD and a rise in gold to $12k.
>>
Flash crash ??? I saw where he said gold would go down, but what is meant by a "flash crash" ?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The dollar index is higher today than it was 3 years ago. No euphemisms or hyperbole, just fact. >>
Thank you. It's always refreshing to get the fact. >>
Big chuckle. Nice cherry pick and you found the proverbial needle in the haystack. Let me guess, the US dollar index was LOWER today then 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15......years ago. But wait a minute. I don't have to guess...
The facts
No euphemisms, no hyperbole, no spin.................Just the facts Jack. MJ >>
The dollar index is about 8% lower than the bottom of the trading range from 1991 to 1995---15 to 20 years ago and was 10% higher than those levels just last year. And could be higher than in 1995 or 1991 again within just a matter of months. Its a volatile trade. Yup, total destruction of the dollar. Aint facts a beach?
It is also entirely possible that the OP's picture is upsidedown.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Everybody always seems to link our manufacturing sector( or lack thereof) to the future destruction of the dollar. But I fail to see
How the Pound is anchored by a manufacturing sector because Britain doesn't have one.
The EURO in general...if you want a weak overall economy and weak manufacturing base---see Europe. I'm suprised the Euro hasn't selfdestructed. Germany cannot and will not carry the continent forever.
The Yen...geesh...old people making cars without parts and electronics without customers...the yen is not that strong fundementally in my book.
So to me...the impending DOOM ON THE DOLLAR is coming from where?
************ China? Don't be so sure. That country IMO is a mess structurally. But hey what do I know.....400 million peasants with no electricity, no food storage or medical and overall in that country a per capita GDP at 12-13% of ours and we are shaking with fear because overall they may surpass us cummulatively( GDP) in the next decade or so. Big deal. 100 million vacant housing units? No big deal. They milk caged bears for bile as a delicasy and harvest organs from living prisoners. China behaves as though it has a sociopathic personality. Which one of it's neighbors gets along with China? It's a short list.
************ Russia? Oh Please. They can't even reproduce to keep a stable population.
************Brazil?
************India? My name is Patel....er BOB....how may I help you?
All four of these --if they eveeeeeer figure out how to link themselves together---will eat their own young amongst themselves.
That's WHY there has been such a surge to the metals. It's simply insurance against the inevitable. Not cheery news, (and not even "news" to anyone paying attention) but there is the reason that metals have eclipsed ALL currencies.
Like they're supposed to.
<< <i>
<< <i>He (Sinclair) seems to be preparing his flock for a flash crash in gold. then a rise, then more QE to help the markets, then an out of control spin of the USD and a rise in gold to $12k.
>>
Flash crash ??? I saw where he said gold would go down, but what is meant by a "flash crash" ? >>
i was exaggerating, but ~$1200 might be in the ballpark--- JMHO
<< <i>The dollar index is higher today than it was 3 years ago. No euphemisms or hyperbole, just fact. >>
Unfortunately, that index is comparing things that are falling at various rates. The US dollar index could remain "strong" right up until the point that the plane above hits 0 elevation.
For a better indicator of how the dollar is doing, compare it against gold, oil, or a commodity index. Using another fiat currency during a world-wide sovereign debt crisis is not the best
way to determine which currencies are strong.
How about comparing the ratio of gold to the USDX(X100) over the past 10 yrs? In 2001 the ratio was about 2.1. Today, about 21. Roughly a 10X increase. Sure doesn't seem
like the Dollar index is doing all that well against gold, an alternative monetary instrument and debt extinguisher held by central banks. One could make the same comparison against
the currencies making up the USDX (ie UDN) and come up with a similar factor of 10 increase in gold vs. competing currencies.
roadrunner
<< <i>I don't follow you chart analysts. I also do not disagree that the dollar is weak and getting weaker. HOWEVER....
Everybody always seems to link our manufacturing sector( or lack thereof) to the future destruction of the dollar. But I fail to see
How the Pound is anchored by a manufacturing sector because Britain doesn't have one.
The EURO in general...if you want a weak overall economy and weak manufacturing base---see Europe. I'm suprised the Euro hasn't selfdestructed. Germany cannot and will not carry the continent forever.
The Yen...geesh...old people making cars without parts and electronics without customers...the yen is not that strong fundementally in my book.
So to me...the impending DOOM ON THE DOLLAR is coming from where?
************ China? Don't be so sure. That country IMO is a mess structurally. But hey what do I know.....400 million peasants with no electricity, no food storage or medical and overall in that country a per capita GDP at 12-13% of ours and we are shaking with fear because overall they may surpass us cummulatively( GDP) in the next decade or so. Big deal. 100 million vacant housing units? No big deal. They milk caged bears for bile as a delicasy and harvest organs from living prisoners. China behaves as though it has a sociopathic personality. Which one of it's neighbors gets along with China? It's a short list.
************ Russia? Oh Please. They can't even reproduce to keep a stable population.
************Brazil?
************India? My name is Patel....er BOB....how may I help you?
All four of these --if they eveeeeeer figure out how to link themselves together---will eat their own young amongst themselves. >>
I agree with you and have said likewise many times--although in different words.
The US dollar is the worlds reserve currency. And as such it must continue to be devalued (or at least have the illusion of being devalued) to keep people spending money. Because if they start to save, all the wheels come off the economic train. Every dollar you spend keeps someone employed. Stop spending and they lose their job. Thats why central banks have always resorted to zero interest rate policy--to disuade saving. If the dollar strengthens gradually, everything may still be ok, but if it rebounds like a coiled spring, which it could due to the situations in Japan and Europe, then global deflation could become entrenched. And that is a politicians worst nightmare. Unless your name is Weiner.
It is my belief that there is indeed a concerted effort among the G-8 to keep the dollar weak. So far they are only treading water.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why against those assets? Why not real estate or the stock market, classic cars or collectible coins?
Fact is, a dollar today buys more oil, soybeans, corn, cocoa, ect than 3 years ago.
Here is a commodity index.
About the only things the dollar doesnt buy more of is gold and silver. And since no one "needs" these, does it really matter?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> About the only things the dollar doesnt buy more of is gold and silver. And since no one "needs" these, does it really matter? >>
No. No it doesn't, by golly. I can't see any reason at all to have an asset with no liabilities that is acceptable all over the world.
I just wasn't thinking.
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<< <i> About the only things the dollar doesnt buy more of is gold and silver. And since no one "needs" these, does it really matter? >>
No. No it doesn't, by golly. I can't see any reason at all to have an asset with no liabilities that is acceptable all over the world.
I just wasn't thinking. >>
I always remember reading Shackletons reflections on what they saved in 1917 when they were discarding useless weight. The Soveriegns were cast into the snow. I suppose they figured if you couldn't eat them and they didn't keep you warm, they could live w/o them.
As an insurance against fiat manipulation metals have been great but there have been extended periods in time when metals lay dormant. When everybody thinks metals are the nirvana---that's probably a good time to reconsider if they are.
Really, why don't you go a day without anything that contains silver, which is just about everything electronic.
<< <i>For a better indicator of how the dollar is doing, compare it against gold, oil, or a commodity index
Why against those assets? Why not real estate or the stock market, classic cars or collectible coins?
Fact is, a dollar today buys more oil, soybeans, corn, cocoa, ect than 3 years ago.
Here is a commodity index.
About the only things the dollar doesnt buy more of is gold and silver. And since no one "needs" these, does it really matter? >>
If one selectively works around the peak in commodities around 2008 and ignores the first 6 years of the decade then that would be the results. It makes more
sense to me to fit a line in across the past 5-10 yrs rather than just the past 3 yrs. With the longer term view there are very few commodities that aren't up considerably
in price. I've noticed that people are often quick to yank out the 30, 50 and 100 yr charts on gold (or other commods) to show what a bad investment it is compared to anything else.
But then when the item does very well over a decade, the 3 yr charts are pulled out to show that performance wasn't really so good. The 2 yr performance on stocks is pretty good,
should we load up now?
I use gold, oil, and commodities to compare against the dollar because that is basically what the banksters, large hedge funds, and speculative money seem to gravitate
towards during periods of dollar weakness and loss of confidence. They continue to bid up what's been working for them. It just happens to be PM's, oil, and commods in
general. I didn't create this game. When they start storing classic cars in the central bank vaults, then that will become the new standard. Oil is the world's lifeblood though
someday that might be water. So no surprise oil is a key ingredient in comparisons. Real estate has basically been in one long bull market since the early 1970's and has been
turned topsy turvy via games with otc derivatives. RE will need a lot more time to recover.
roadrunner
All of those variables impact the dollar. Some of the trends are not reversible in any practical political way.
If you had told me about a company named Microsoft in 1980, I might have been tempted to plunge $100 into the stock if I knew much about the story up till that point in time. In the case of the dollar, I think that we know 1000X more about the dollar and gold than I did in 1980 about Microsoft.
I don't see a path that indicates a dollar recovery under any circumstances. There are too many factors leaning in the other direction.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i><< About the only things the dollar doesnt buy more of is gold and silver. And since no one "needs" these, does it really matter? >>
Really, why don't you go a day without anything that contains silver, which is just about everything electronic. >>
I was going to respond much more diplomatically to this but cannot, so I will only ask how much silver is there in my cellphone? 2c worth?
Topstuff, my point is that if gold and silver were to disappear tomorrow, 99.99% of the worlds population wouldnt even notice. Now imagine if there was no more oil or corn.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think we could live without Jewelry...
Nearly one billion cell phones are produced each year and most of them contain about fifty cents worth of gold.
Again....not much of a factor and other metals could be used instead of gold.
Exactly, and thats why silver ran up in 1980 and in 2011--because that was the game. It had nothing to do with the value of the dollar. They run PMs and oil and commods because they can.
For example, today corn is ripping and hitting a new high. Is that because Bernanke is trying to kill the dollar? No, its because corn supplies are projected to be at the lowest levels since 1974 and now there are 3 billion more mouths to feed.
Im starting to CSCO now and as part of my research I found the following facts....
In 2000 CSCO had sales of $19 billion, $20 billion in cash and a market cap of over $500 billion.
In 2011 CSCO has sales of $40 billion, $42 billion in cash and a market cap under $90 billion
So here we have a company that doubled its business and cash hoard over the past decade, yet the stock is down 80%. Is CSCO's stock performance a fair representation of the economy or of CSCO's business over the last 10 years? You see, the point I have been trying to make all these years, is that psychology and expection plays a much greater role in asset pricing than actual fundamentals. This psychology and expectation can be applied to ALL assets, even gold and the dollar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i><< About the only things the dollar doesnt buy more of is gold and silver. And since no one "needs" these, does it really matter? >>
Really, why don't you go a day without anything that contains silver, which is just about everything electronic. >>
Electric components are responsible for about 5% of U.S. silver usage.