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If a plus (+) grade means the coin is .670 of the way to the next grade...please explain why???

tcmitssrtcmitssr Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭
Got my usual several plus (+) grades back on my most recent Secure Plus submissions of my silver classic commems.

I check the price grade though and + grades barely bring a third more, in most cases, than the next highest grade.

If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade.

Comments

  • llafoellafoe Posts: 7,220 ✭✭


    << <i>Got my usual several plus (+) grades back on my most recent Secure Plus submissions of my silver classic commems.

    I check the price grade though and + grades barely bring a third more, in most cases, than the next highest grade.

    If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade. >>



    Because coins are an artifical market and a "+" is an artificial modifier of an artifical market? image
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  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,989 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I thought the PCGS plus was for the top 15% of the grade instead of the top 33% of the grade. Perhaps I am wrong.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Got my usual several plus (+) grades back on my most recent Secure Plus submissions of my silver classic commems.
    I check the price grade though and + grades barely bring a third more, in most cases, than the next highest grade.
    If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade. >>



    I though a plus grade meant it had to be at least at 660? But in any case, your coin at say 661 is only 2 mini-points better than one at 659 that didn't get the nod. Is that a
    50% difference in value? Ultimately your coin has to be compared against the typical coin in that grade which might be 640 to 650. It varies for each specific date/mint/denomination.
    Premiums between grades are not fixed and also vary per coin. There are some classic silver commems where there are minimal price changes from MS63 to MS66. To arbitrarily assign a fixed premium won't work. Then you have to guess where your coin stands in that 660-699 range. I would submit that a 690-699 in many coins would probably bring at least a
    50% premium. But if your coin is merely a 660-670, the premium should be smaller, maybe 5-15%. The market has to decide in each and every case based on the coin itself and its
    fundamentals (# extant, supply, demand, pop report #'s in current grade as well as ones higher and lower, etc.). There obviously would be much stronger demand for MS63-66 "plused" Monroe vs. an Iowa/Oregon/Texas. Hence the premium assigned would probably be greater.

    In general one is also fighting the concept that assigning a grade to a coin makes it mostly similar to every other coin in that same grade, at least theoretically. During the 1988-1989 bull market it hardly mattered what a coin looked like as long it was in the holder. They all traded for about the same price give or take 10%. That mindset is still around for the most part. While grading is on a continuum, coin pricing tends to be much more on a step chart....even with the advent of a + grade. I think collectors realize that grading is probably not any more accurate/repeatable than to 1 mint state point, at least when a 5-10 second look is involved. Pricing tends to reflect that belief. The + sign is a way of saying that the coin is better than the other 60% sitting below it. But no way to know if it's a little bit or a lotta bit better. Price guides other than blue sheet generally assume an average or solid coin for the grade.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • dragondragon Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
    <<< If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade. >>>


    Many dates in the Morgan dollar series where there is a big price bump to the next grade up, a plus coin is typically worth only a small premium over a non plus coin in percentage terms, and for many of the generic dates a plus means next to nothing.


    BTW.....I though a plus was given for coins that were in the top 30% of the grade, or a .7 or better.
  • BarryBarry Posts: 10,100 ✭✭✭
    Despite Sheldon's original idea, the grade to price scale is not linear.
  • RampageRampage Posts: 9,507 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I check the price grade though and + grades barely bring a third more, in most cases, than the next highest grade. >>


    I hope the plus of a specific grade does NOT bring a third more than the next highest grade as you have stated above. You are saying that a 64+, for example, brings a third more than a 65. Is this what you meant? Or, did you mean to say that a 64+ brings a third more than a 64 (no plus)?






  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is exactly why PQ coins are the great bargains in numismatics. The grade on the holder actually suppresses the cost of the coin ... the opposite of a low end coin where the grade on the holder artificially inflates the cost of the coin.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 35,080 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I thought the PCGS plus was for the top 15% of the grade instead of the top 33% of the grade. Perhaps I am wrong. >>



    I thought it was top 20%??


    but it's definitely not as low as 67%. It's higher than that.


    And that is %age of coins.


    In terms of grade it is XX.7 to XX.99 (just under the next highest grade)
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  • LindeDadLindeDad Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think many will find the price difference of a plus coin is directly proportional to the amount of completion in the series in the registry.
    image
  • llafoellafoe Posts: 7,220 ✭✭


    << <i>I think many will find the price difference of a plus coin is directly proportional to the amount of completion in the series in the registry.
    image >>



    Logic... it's a thread killer (that's my new bumper sticker)! image
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  • DonWillisDonWillis Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    It's funny, when we first started putting Plus (+) on coins just over a year ago all I heard was how the Plus didn't mean anything.

    Lately the most common complaint I get is that we are not giving out enough Plus grades!

    That tells me that PCGS Plus grades are gaining traction, both in desireability (which for dealers means liquidity) as well as increased value.

    The desireabilty factor is a no brainer. Why wouldn't someone prefer a Plus coin versus a non-Plus coin of the same grade? Some dealers just didn't get it at first. I heard of one collector who, when he found out that a certain large dealer was not charging anything extra for Plus graded coins, agreed to buy every Plus graded coin the dealer bought at the same price the dealer was asking for non-Plus coins. Eventually the dealer woke up and no longer will sell at the same price.

    The value bump seems to depend upon a couple different factors. I think values are still being determined by the market but there seem to be a couple criteria that can be used to figure the bump.

    The smaller the number of coins graded higher than the base grade of the Plus coin (for a 66+ the base grade is 66) the bigger the bump in value. If there are a lot of coins graded higher the bump is pretty small. Similarly the larger the spread in value between grades the bigger the bump for Plus graded coins.

    When I was a dealer I would often pay 50% or more over "bid" for a PQ coin. The PCGS Plus system is simply a way of recognizing which coin is worth a premium.

    You can check this out through auction results. One problem you will run into is that at least one auction firm tries to get a sticker put on every PCGS Plus coin which may confuse the picture since virtually every PCGS Plus gets a sticker.









  • LindeDadLindeDad Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I think many will find the price difference of a plus coin is directly proportional to the amount of completion in the series in the registry.
    image >>



    Logic... it's a thread killer (that's my new bumper sticker)! image >>



    Considing something like that as a title might be in order.
    image
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 35,080 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I thought the PCGS plus was for the top 15% of the grade instead of the top 33% of the grade. Perhaps I am wrong. >>



    I thought it was top 20%??


    but it's definitely not as low as 67%. It's higher than that. >>





    Secure Plus FAQ (not that you need the Secure Plus service to get a plus)
    16. Q: How will Secure Plus affect the grading process? Will it lock a coin in at a grade? What does the + mean?
    DW: PCGS Secure Plus does not lock in the grade of your coin forever. What is does is tell us what your coin has graded in the past. That way we can make a more informed decision. Do we ever make mistakes? Yes. Will we ever change a Secure Plus grade? Yes. The + refers to a coin that is in the top 10-15% of the grade. It must have positive eye appeal and be all there technically as well.



    Mar 25th Article on PCGS site
    PCGS founder David Hall stated, "The reality of the market place is that coins considered high end for the grade are recognized by sophisticated dealers and collectors and such coins are worth a premium in the marketplace. The term "plus" has been part of the everyday trading and grading lingo for years. The high end for any particular grade represents the top 30 percent of the scale within a grade and I estimate that the plus designation would apply to approximately 15 percent to 20 percent of the coins within any individual grade. For the market's two leading grading services to recognize this reality and designate these premium coins as part of their grading services is a huge benefit to all participants in the rare coin market."

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • llafoellafoe Posts: 7,220 ✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>I thought the PCGS plus was for the top 15% of the grade instead of the top 33% of the grade. Perhaps I am wrong. >>



    I thought it was top 20%??


    but it's definitely not as low as 67%. It's higher than that. >>





    Secure Plus FAQ (not that you need the Secure Plus service to get a plus)
    16. Q: How will Secure Plus affect the grading process? Will it lock a coin in at a grade? What does the + mean?
    DW: PCGS Secure Plus does not lock in the grade of your coin forever. What is does is tell us what your coin has graded in the past. That way we can make a more informed decision. Do we ever make mistakes? Yes. Will we ever change a Secure Plus grade? Yes. The + refers to a coin that is in the top 10-15% of the grade. It must have positive eye appeal and be all there technically as well.



    Mar 25th Article on PCGS site
    PCGS founder David Hall stated, "The reality of the market place is that coins considered high end for the grade are recognized by sophisticated dealers and collectors and such coins are worth a premium in the marketplace. The term "plus" has been part of the everyday trading and grading lingo for years. The high end for any particular grade represents the top 30 percent of the scale within a grade and I estimate that the plus designation would apply to approximately 15 percent to 20 percent of the coins within any individual grade. For the market's two leading grading services to recognize this reality and designate these premium coins as part of their grading services is a huge benefit to all participants in the rare coin market." >>



    Let me see, that's 10-15 times 8 minus 4 plus 3/25 = 15-20 over under 12 minus this and that... yep, just as I thought - on 01 April, 2015, 100% of all the coins in the grade will receive a "+"! image
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  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This is exactly why PQ coins are the great bargains in numismatics. The grade on the holder actually suppresses the cost of the coin ... the opposite of a low end coin where the grade on the holder artificially inflates the cost of the coin. >>



    image
    PQ coins have been great bargains for YEARS. Why? As coins in general get more expensive as the years pass, there is a trend towards adding additional grades to split the difference between existing grades when the price differential becomes too large.
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  • sweetwillietsweetwilliet Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭
    Because the price guide increments are not linear.
    Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
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  • PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    One problem you will run into is that at least one auction firm tries to get a sticker put on every PCGS Plus coin which may confuse the picture since virtually every PCGS Plus gets a sticker.




    I read the above several times ;

    AND I FIGURED IT OUT !! image
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TDN nailed it. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
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  • Type2Type2 Posts: 13,985 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It's funny, when we first started putting Plus (+) on coins just over a year ago all I heard was how the Plus didn't mean anything.

    Lately the most common complaint I get is that we are not giving out enough Plus grades!

    That tells me that PCGS Plus grades are gaining traction, both in desireability (which for dealers means liquidity) as well as increased value.

    The desireabilty factor is a no brainer. Why wouldn't someone prefer a Plus coin versus a non-Plus coin of the same grade? Some dealers just didn't get it at first. I heard of one collector who, when he found out that a certain large dealer was not charging anything extra for Plus graded coins, agreed to buy every Plus graded coin the dealer bought at the same price the dealer was asking for non-Plus coins. Eventually the dealer woke up and no longer will sell at the same price.

    The value bump seems to depend upon a couple different factors. I think values are still being determined by the market but there seem to be a couple criteria that can be used to figure the bump.

    The smaller the number of coins graded higher than the base grade of the Plus coin (for a 66+ the base grade is 66) the bigger the bump in value. If there are a lot of coins graded higher the bump is pretty small. Similarly the larger the spread in value between grades the bigger the bump for Plus graded coins.

    When I was a dealer I would often pay 50% or more over "bid" for a PQ coin. The PCGS Plus system is simply a way of recognizing which coin is worth a premium.

    You can check this out through auction results. One problem you will run into is that at least one auction firm tries to get a sticker put on every PCGS Plus coin which may confuse the picture since virtually every PCGS Plus gets a sticker. >>

    Don when you give out the + all wanted it we all know why the price go's up just like the Gold bean and Green bean that is why every one is complaing if they don't get it it's your way of giving out a bean and kipping $$ in house.That is fine but if it is a MS-66.7 should it not be a MS-67 Just asking or am I wrong. Thanks Type2. image


    Hoard the keys.
  • DonWillisDonWillis Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    TYPE2 - we've explained the criteria for Plus grades a bunch of times already, so I am not going to explain it again.

    A Plus coin is a very highend example of a certain grade. It is not the next higher grade. It's not a cop out to give a coin a Plus and it is wrong to give that coin a higher grade than it deserves.

    There are many examples of Plus coins and they have always been recognized in some form.

  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,656 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This is exactly why PQ coins are the great bargains in numismatics. The grade on the holder actually suppresses the cost of the coin ... the opposite of a low end coin where the grade on the holder artificially inflates the cost of the coin. >>



    Bruce, your comment raises several questions.
    1) Many people don't know how to grade a particular series of coin(s), including dealers. They buy the holder. Therefore, many people won't recognize a PQ coin when they see it.
    2) From 1), it follows that it's no coincidence that so many coins I see in dealer cases at shows are listed as PQ, and marked up accordingly.
    3) Are PQ coins great bargains? It depends. For a truly PQ coin, it depends on the coin, the grade, the price range of such grade, and the price range of said coin in the next grade up.
    4) Continuing, I've seen too many nice for the grade coins get bid up near or equal to the pricing for the next grade, even though the chances for an upgrade are minimal at best. To me, these coins are not bargains. Ie., I've just seen a $9K coin go for $15K. That's not a bargain.
    5) A "just made it" coin to me is never a good buy, unless it is heavily discounted from the price continuum for its given grade.
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  • FrankcoinsFrankcoins Posts: 4,571 ✭✭✭
    The coin market for premium coins has always been artifically depressed by posted dealer Bids and bids made in auctions which are low enough to CYA in case a coin arrives that "just made" the grade. PCGS Plus grades allow two-way confidence that you are getting a high end coin. I see zero reason to do business with "sticker companies." If you have a nice PCGS coin, just send it back through PCGS and see if it gets a plus. For about the same cost, would you rather have the PCGS grade guarantee and posted price guide information, or a sticker company's promise to "stand behind our verification by making markets in most actively traded coins?"
    Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,194 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The coin market for premium coins has always been artifically depressed by posted dealer Bids and bids made in auctions which are low enough to CYA in case a coin arrives that "just made" the grade. PCGS Plus grades allow two-way confidence that you are getting a high end coin. I see zero reason to do business with "sticker companies." If you have a nice PCGS coin, just send it back through PCGS and see if it gets a plus. For about the same cost, would you rather have the PCGS grade guarantee and posted price guide information, or a sticker company's promise to "stand behind our verification by making markets in most actively traded coins?" >>



    Since they aren't mutually exclusive, I'd rather have BOTH.
  • Type2Type2 Posts: 13,985 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>TYPE2 - we've explained the criteria for Plus grades a bunch of times already, so I am not going to explain it again.

    A Plus coin is a very highend example of a certain grade. It is not the next higher grade. It's not a cop out to give a coin a Plus and it is wrong to give that coin a higher grade than it deserves.

    There are many examples of Plus coins and they have always been recognized in some form. >>

    Thanks Don, I hope some day I get 1 + out of my submissions and do I have to pay extra for this service? I saw a box to check but the from had a extra fee on it or is it just given when graded. Thanks again Type2. image


    Hoard the keys.
  • tradedollarnuttradedollarnut Posts: 20,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
    double post
  • notwilightnotwilight Posts: 12,864 ✭✭✭


    << <i>If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade. >>



    I'm still trying to figure out the math. what is 699 pts out of and where is this system defined? --Jerry
  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade. >>



    I'm still trying to figure out the math. what is 699 pts out of and where is this system defined? --Jerry >>




    699 out of 1000 (the latter being the spread between grade X and the next higher grade). Don't worry about definitions---everything will change by the time the decade is over, anyway.
    Relax, be happy.image
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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 35,080 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Don when you give out the + all wanted it we all know why the price go's up just like the Gold bean and Green bean that is why every one is complaing if they don't get it it's your way of giving out a bean and kipping $$ in house.That is fine but if it is a MS-66.7 should it not be a MS-67 Just asking or am I wrong. Thanks Type2. image >>





    Rounding?

    This isn't a place for rounding.

    Funny suggestion though. I wonder if someone will use it on eBay one day.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 35,080 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>If, to get a plus grade, a coin has to get between 670 to 699 points on the PCGS grading "scales" why don't the prices reflect, at least half, of the value to the next higher grade. >>



    I'm still trying to figure out the math. what is 699 pts out of and where is this system defined? --Jerry >>




    The poster is misinterpreting the concept.

    Plus coins are in the top 15% - 20% of the coins in the grade with a little bit of an eye appeal requirement.

    On a 70 point scale, a 65+ would be 65.7 - 65.99(ie. just under a 66), on a 700 point scale a 65+ would be a 657-659.9. All this includes a little eye appeal factor too. I don't think PCGS is going to give a technically high grade 65 coin a plus if it is friggin ugly.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Rather than go by memory I looked it up on PCGS. Ok, the range is from say 670-699. Or as they list it: XX7 to XX9. For example, that would mean MS66.70
    to MS66.99 for the MS66 grade. From a mathematical view, that covers 30% of the MS66 grade range. It doesn't however give one any indication how the bell
    curve is skewed for the MS66 grade as that varies with every single date/mint/denom. coin in the US series. It's sort of pointless to say that a + means the coin
    is in the top 10-15% of the grade, esp. considering that it represents 30% of the potential grades. Unless one has gone out and compared or reviewed all the coins
    evaluated with that grade it's hard to come up with an accurate number. It may well be you have the only MS66 worthy of a + and that could be out of 20 coins.
    Hence yours would be in the top 5%. Then again, out of those 20 coins there might be 8 worthy of a plus due to a small group of gems being saved, all with above
    average eye-appeal. In that case, your coin is in the top 40%.

    Knowing how gradeflation has worked over the years with so many MS66.7 to MS66.9 coins getting bumped up to MS67, it's probably safe to say that the population
    of "potential" plus coins probably got reduced. But it could be restored by taking all those MS67's and trying for downgrades to MS66+ (not likely that's gonna happen).

    I'd feel safe saying that a + means one's coin is probably in the top 30% of those graded. To suggest that 10-15% is the norm, also suggests that "something else"
    happened along the way to reduce that 30% in half. A number of dealers have used the tactic of stating that most of what they sell was in the top 5-20% of all coins for that
    date/grade. Now that there is a way to substantiate that claim (ie a plus sign), it can't be used so widely unless everything you advertise has a plus sign on it. I guess they
    can still claim it's in the top 5-10%, but it has to have a plus sign on it for starters.

    One big difference between the "sticker" company and a "plus" coin, is that the sticker company makes a market in their coins. PCGS does not offer to buy and sell "+" coins.
    In a distressed coin market, those former higher end 66 coins that got bumped to 67 are not easily marketable for 67 money unless discounted, possibly down the same price
    where the 66+ coins are now trading at. In a stronger market that difference should once again widen. It's no wonder there is great demand today for + coins when they
    might be available for quite a bit less than a comparable low end coin one grade higher. Plus coins can be great values or burials, or anything inbetween depending on the price
    and individual quality of the coin.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • I'm simply truly amazed at the lack of understanding of the designation and what it actually says about a specific coin when given one. As in almost all things, it will take some time for both Dealer & Collector to understand and appropriately assess the premium warranted for + designated coins. The majority of " Buyers " today have very little long term experience or basic knowledge in or of the field of Numismatics. Rather their one minded focus is simply on believing they are investing without taking the time to learn about the true quality of the coins they buy. You can witness this all day long on Auction websites and venues such as EBAY. I'll quietly continue buying my + coins, hopefully without much competition.
  • PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    It's not a cop out to give a coin a Plus and it is wrong to give that coin a higher grade than it deserves. ............

    wow
  • PawPaulPawPaul Posts: 5,845
    and Roadrunner , if I may say :

    I like reading someone's post like your's above ,............

    well done and a pretty impressive display of knowledge !
  • notwilightnotwilight Posts: 12,864 ✭✭✭
    Ok. Not that make it clear. Huh?

    So the OP numbers. .670 to .699, covers 3 grades (67 to 69) and IIRC, pluses don't go above 68. So I'm still confused. There have been some replies that make sense on their own but i have no idea how they address the original question. I know, I'm kindof old fashioned to focus on the original question rather than where the thread went after that. --jerry
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Ok. Not that make it clear. Huh?
    So the OP numbers. .670 to .699, covers 3 grades (67 to 69) and IIRC, pluses don't go above 68. So I'm still confused. There have been some replies that make sense on their own but i have no idea how they address the original question. I know, I'm kindof old fashioned to focus on the original question rather than where the thread went after that. --jerry >>



    Now I'm confused as well.

    The .670 to .699 covers the decimal portion of a full grade point range. Since MS60-61 coins aren't allowed to be in the plus bonanza, here's how the MS map would look:

    MS62: MS62.70 to MS62.99
    MS63: MS63.70 to MS63.99
    MS64: MS64.70 to MS64.99
    MS65: MS65.70 to MS65.99
    and likewise for MS66, 67, 68. Can't recall if MS69 could receive a plus, but I don't see why not.

    The same principal can be applied to circulated coins as well. Top graders have been assigning plus signs to grades for decades. The TPG's are a tad late to the show.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • You guys are funny! Grades down to 1/100 of a point. Grades are plus or minus at least 1 point now. Dont even discuss decimals. Unreal. image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>You guys are funny! Grades down to 1/100 of a point. Grades are plus or minus at least 1 point now. Dont even discuss decimals. Unreal. image >>



    "Assigning" grades to one decimal point does not mean that's the accuracy involved. Two different things. One can have 10 graders look at a coin and get
    an average grade of say MS65.47 It doesn't mean the coin can be measured that accurately esp since each individual grader might only be accurate to plus or minus
    2-3 tenths of a point. When the computer shows up someday, then you might see across the board decimal grades, maybe even to a hundreth of a point. image

    The fact that coins trade among sharp graders/numimatists for wildly varying prices within a single grade point definitely shows that grading is accurate to far less
    than a single point. It doesn't matter that slabbed coins don't currently show decimal points. The trade in the market as if they do have decimal points.
    The advent of the plus sign suggests as well that the TPG's feel they can grade to within 1/3 of a pt accuracy. I might more easily agree with that if each
    grader were given a minute per coin rather than 5-10 seconds. Would also be better if there were 4 or 5 graders on each coin. But accuracy and repeatability conflict
    with making the operation profitable. I firmly believe the best graders out there can grade to within 0.2 pts on MS/PF coins (61-68). The problem is that >99% of the
    rest of the hobby can't do any better than about plus or minus 1 pt.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • leothelyonleothelyon Posts: 8,476 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OK! Now that that's out of the way, I motion that we move to the next agenda.


    Leo imageimage

    The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!

    My Jefferson Nickel Collection



  • << <i>

    << <i>You guys are funny! Grades down to 1/100 of a point. Grades are plus or minus at least 1 point now. Dont even discuss decimals. Unreal. image >>



    "Assigning" grades to one decimal point does not mean that's the accuracy involved. Two different things. One can have 10 graders look at a coin and get
    an average grade of say MS65.47 It doesn't mean the coin can be measured that accurately esp since each individual grader might only be accurate to plus or minus
    2-3 tenths of a point. When the computer shows up someday, then you might see across the board decimal grades, maybe even to a hundreth of a point. image

    The fact that coins trade among sharp graders/numimatists for wildly varying prices within a single grade point definitely shows that grading is accurate to far less
    than a single point. It doesn't matter that slabbed coins don't currently show decimal points. The trade in the market as if they do have decimal points.
    The advent of the plus sign suggests as well that the TPG's feel they can grade to within 1/3 of a pt accuracy. I might more easily agree with that if each
    grader were given a minute per coin rather than 5-10 seconds. Would also be better if there were 4 or 5 graders on each coin. But accuracy and repeatability conflict
    with making the operation profitable. I firmly believe the best graders out there can grade to within 0.2 pts on MS/PF coins (61-68). The problem is that >99% of the
    rest of the hobby can't do any better than about plus or minus 1 pt.

    roadrunner >>

    I hear you. I agree with most of what you said here. I also believe one day computer grading will be used.
  • Actually, it's the top 15%, so an MS63+ is in theory MS63.85 - MS63.99. That reduces the theoretical pool of plus graded coins by slightly over half.

    What gets me is the tendency to regard pluses as elite, when they are simply an elite within a grade. An MS64 coin is still generally superior to an MS63+, assuming both are acurrately graded and ignoring coin individuality factors such as eye appeal. Yes, the 63+ might be more desirable than a few 64 coins, but In general, a 64 beats a 63+.
    Improperly Cleaned, Our passion for numismatics is Genuine! Now featuring correct spelling.
  • FrankcoinsFrankcoins Posts: 4,571 ✭✭✭
    A 65+ would be 65.8 or 65.9 on a tenth point precision. No need to complicate it further.
    Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
  • DonWillisDonWillis Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    I'm simply truly amazed at the lack of understanding of the designation and what it actually says about a specific coin when given one. As in almost all things, it will take some time for both Dealer & Collector to understand and appropriately assess the premium warranted for + designated coins. The majority of " Buyers " today have very little long term experience or basic knowledge in or of the field of Numismatics. Rather their one minded focus is simply on believing they are investing without taking the time to learn about the true quality of the coins they buy. You can witness this all day long on Auction websites and venues such as EBAY. I'll quietly continue buying my + coins, hopefully without much competition.

    coinhunters - Very well said!

    I'd feel safe saying that a + means one's coin is probably in the top 30% of those graded. To suggest that 10-15% is the norm, also suggests that "something else" happened along the way to reduce that 30% in half. A number of dealers have used the tactic of stating that most of what they sell was in the top 5-20% of all coins for that date/grade. Now that there is a way to substantiate that claim (ie a plus sign), it can't be used so widely unless everything you advertise has a plus sign on it. I guess they can still claim it's in the top 5-10%, but it has to have a plus sign on it for starters.

    roadrunner - your logic assumes that there is an even distribution of coins throughout the grade. That is not correct. If you graded 1000 MS65 Morgan dollars (or any other coin/grade) there is no way that 30% would get a PLUS grade. No way. The actual distribution of coin quality is more like a bell curve not a flat line. But you are correct that sellers who claim their coins are PQ or in the top 5-20% now have a way of proving it.





  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,989 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm simply truly amazed at the lack of understanding of the designation and what it actually says about a specific coin when given one. As in almost all things, it will take some time for both Dealer & Collector to understand and appropriately assess the premium warranted for + designated coins. The majority of " Buyers " today have very little long term experience or basic knowledge in or of the field of Numismatics. Rather their one minded focus is simply on believing they are investing without taking the time to learn about the true quality of the coins they buy. You can witness this all day long on Auction websites and venues such as EBAY. I'll quietly continue buying my + coins, hopefully without much competition.

    coinhunters - Very well said!

    I'd feel safe saying that a + means one's coin is probably in the top 30% of those graded. To suggest that 10-15% is the norm, also suggests that "something else" happened along the way to reduce that 30% in half. A number of dealers have used the tactic of stating that most of what they sell was in the top 5-20% of all coins for that date/grade. Now that there is a way to substantiate that claim (ie a plus sign), it can't be used so widely unless everything you advertise has a plus sign on it. I guess they can still claim it's in the top 5-10%, but it has to have a plus sign on it for starters.

    roadrunner - your logic assumes that there is an even distribution of coins throughout the grade. That is not correct. If you graded 1000 MS65 Morgan dollars (or any other coin/grade) there is no way that 30% would get a PLUS grade. No way. The actual distribution of coin quality is more like a bell curve not a flat line. But you are correct that sellers who claim their coins are PQ or in the top 5-20% now have a way of proving it. >>



    Don, I have placed in bold some of your text that I find counterintuitive and it would be great if you could expand upon an answer to my question. Specifically, you are stating that within a grade there should be a bell type curve for the distribution of coins. Therefore, the extension of this bell type curve within each grade is that you would have a sine wave for distribution throughout the MS60-MS70 grade range. That is, you are stating that within each grade there will be a maxima near the center while the edges trail off to some degree and that this pattern or observation will be repeated up the grading scale, which is a sine wave. This does not make sense to me since I do not understand how each grade should behave individually in a bell type curve manner. However, I understand how a grade range such as MS60-MS70 or MS62-MS68 or something else might behave in a bell type curve manner.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Tom, I'd imagine that within a group of old, integer graded MS65 dollars, for example, it's more like a skewed bell curve in quality, not a symmetrical bell curve

    skewed to the left, where probably 85+% are 65 or 64 + ish, and only 10-15%, if that, are ligitimate 66 candidates in the reduced right hand tail

    With something that has huge spreads, like S-mint peace dollars, the percentage of +s might be even lower, and those are the coins that really need an in-between grade with a plus to capture the value for a very nice coin for one integer grade, but does not quite justify the higher integer.

    But grading is a gestalt thing, the OP puting 3 sig figs past the decimal appears to be trying to be putting too fine a point on it.

    I always smile at scientists at work who express the results of an assay with a +/- 20% accuracy to a precision of 3 sig figs. image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • DonWillisDonWillis Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    It's been a long time since I took a statistics class. I'll leave the curve discussion to you guys. Regardless of what kind of curve best represents PLUS coins, observation tells us that less than 20% satisfy the criteria. Actually a lot less in many cases.

    We have been adding PLUS grades for about a year now and you can see from the POP reports the very small percentage of coins that have qualified.

    Here is an old FAQ from our website that sums up PLUS grading:

    93. Q: I am confused by PCGS Secure Plus. What defines a + coin? Are Secure Plus coins that do not receive the + considered dreck?

    DW: For a coin to earn the + designation it has to be in the top 10-20% of that grade. We aren't talking eye appeal, although that is considered as part of it. The coin has to meet all the technical criteria such as strike, luster, contact marks as well as eye appeal. Not just a pretty coin, but a coin that’s "all there" and may have been referred to as "a liner" in the past. Almost the next grade but not quite. A + is not an eye appeal designation. A + does not indicate "properly graded.” A + is something a step above.

    Coins that do not earn the + designation are not dreck. 80-90% of all coins in every grade will not earn the +. They are not dreck at all. There is nothing wrong with a coin that grades 65.5 - it's solid for the grade and that's fine. It's just not quite a +. To assume that something is wrong with a coin that does not have a + is completely missing the point.


  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,989 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you for the reply, Don.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image

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