Will recent history repeat itself?

piecesofme

I think it was around in '09 or so when Silver was hovering around $15/oz. Anywhere you went you would get the old "silver is hard to find" line. If the seller did have it and you were willing to buy, you would be paying $18 for $15/oz. of .999 and the "standard" price for 90% was roughly at least .75 OVER melt.
To my knowledge, it happened everywhere, not just locally. It was that way on ebay too. My memory is distinct on this having gotten into some debates about it with local dealers.
This buyers premium lasted til Silver got around $20/oz and/or people wouldn't pay that premium anymore and wanted .999 for no more than .25 above Spot or even Spot (down from the standard $3 above Spot) & you could get 90% as much as $2 BELOW melt (down from .75 OVER Melt).

With prices for Silver on eBay maintaining a pretty decent premium, will dealers pick up on that and revert to the way it was during '09? The reason I ask is because when it was like that in '09, people would say sort of things like..."that's what the Market is saying it's worth, go out and try to find it though and you'll see you can't buy it for less" than the above mentioned premiums.

Do you think the mentality of buying will change back to that given this landslide that has happened in a freakin week?

OPA

Supply & Demand and what the majority is willing to pay for it, will dictate the price of physical silver.
If we did not learn from our mistakes, history has a way of repeating it self. We shall see.

piecesofme

Yes, I agree it's totally dependent on S&D. With Metals being fairly easy to find however much you want to buy, I don't think this will happen again, but when I see ASE's still going for $10 over Spot I scratch my head. Do people have that much $ to overpay with given things are still supposedly depressed or are people sitting on so much cash and at this point are willing to spend it on something they "think" will be a good investment?
I'll answer my own question. People have plenty of $. I still see people driving over-sized vehicles with $4.25/gal Gas, all the restaurants are packed nearly every night of the week, the Malls and shopping centers are bustling, people just gotta have the latest electronic gadget...and maybe most telling, overall credit debt has come down significantly. That is not because they are not buying with Credit, they still are, they are just managing their debt better now.

This Metals run was a gift, a result of QE 1 & 2 and crazed speculation. Now that BB has gotten what he wanted (Inflation), i think it's safe to say that there will not be a QE3, interest rates will go up slightly, the Dollar will recover (not completely) and this run is over. I firmly believe Silver will stabilize in the low $20's.
Throw in some fraud and blatant manipulation by the CME and JP Morgan with all that...Metals get back to reality. Think about it, $20 Silver is still not a bad thing, it's just more indicitive of what it really should be.

all jmho

Wingsrule

but when I see ASE's still going for $10 over Spot I scratch my head.

As do I. I think some of these people are the reason the term 'bidiot' was coined. Perhaps they are not in tune to the market as many of us are?

I was at a B&M yesterday and could have bought several hundred 1 oz bars for spot +$1.50 and ASEs for spot +$3.00.

Coyn

<< <i>Now that BB has gotten what he wanted (Inflation), >>



Mission has NOT been accomplished. The real estate market and its underlying mortgage debt is still way underwater. This debt is huge on the books of the cartel banks and until the "values" are restored the system is still in "grave danger". The mortgage debt has to be solid even if it means $7 gas and 3000 gold. The rise to this level though, still has to be "managed."

I remember 2008 when silver slipped under 10. I was still selling ASEs on Ebay at 350 a roll. There may again soon be a separation between the real price and the paper price.