298 million shares of SLV traded today. WOW!!!!!
cohodk
Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
$10.50 billion dollars worth traded hands today. I hate to say it folks, but it is looking increasingly likely that it is over. I hope everyone had a fun ride over the last 10 years.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Comments
I want to know when I can finally buy some SAEs again
(not to flip, but to fill out albums and just have a few rolls)
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>$10.50 billion dollars worth traded hands today. I hate to say it folks, but it is looking increasingly likely that it is over. I hope everyone had a fun ride over the last 10 years. >>
OK, I'll bite.
I'm a self-professed mental midget in charts and investing, and only following POG/S since mid-07. can you explain or a little more commentary please? (esp 'it is over' and '10 years') and your AGQ position today? Many thanks for your comments and perspective.
Don
PS I understand the WOW!!!
Groucho Marx
<< <i>Its not the first time somebody calls a top in metals
Yeah, you got me on that one cuz I didnt wait till the technicals confirmed. In all honesty I was about 2 keystrokes from writing the same about silver on Monday, but didnt want to push it 25% higher.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You are the top dog when it comes to analizing charts around here.
what do you make of the jump in the USD index? I bought the vanguard treasury fund VUSTX around $10.70 for my 401K and its been a life saver lately as everything else has tanked.
Groucho Marx
<< <i>
<< <i>$10.50 billion dollars worth traded hands today. I hate to say it folks, but it is looking increasingly likely that it is over. I hope everyone had a fun ride over the last 10 years. >>
OK, I'll bite.
I'm a self-professed mental midget in charts and investing, and only following POG/S since mid-07. can you explain or a little more commentary please? (esp 'it is over' and '10 years') and your AGQ position today? Many thanks for your comments and perspective.
Don
PS I understand the WOW!!!
Yeah, I bot some AGQ calls today hoping for a bounce. It didnt come...yet. There is a little price support and 50% retracement level within about another buck so im gonna hold. I do not have a high degree of confidence in this trade.
Silver rallied 12 fold over the last 10 years. That is an incredible rally and probably rivals some of the greatest for an asset most anyone alive has ever seen. The length of time--a decade--is also incredible as most usually occur in 3-7 years. For an asset to be able to hold it together for a decade is impressive. Now I will say that silver was probably very undervalued at $4 but the rally is what it is---12 fold over 10 years. WOW, is all I can say.
But something has changed in the last week. This has been no garden variety selloff. Its scope and scale is mindblowing. It has infected all commodities. Silver may indeed try to may another stab at breaking the almighty $50 mark, but I believe the next attempt will be measured in years, not months. Not to say silver cant bounce back into the 40's--I have a vested interested
PS---for those who would say silver is going higher cuz the dollar is crap, please look at the last 5 years. The financial system collapsed. Real estate collapsed. Countries have collapsed. Wars have been fought. Deficits have exploded. US debt has doubled. And yet the dollar is only down about 10% since 2003. Everyone expects the US to default. Many expect QE3, QE4, ect. Markets respond to the unexpected. What "unexpected" event can push silver higher?
Come on silver bulls, push silver higher $5 in the next 4 days, so I can get out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>So where do you see silver ending up at later this year? >>
Sounds like ASE will be under $10 by December.
I think we shall use gold for the purpose of
building public lavatories in the streets of
some of the largest cities of the world."
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
<< <i>Im just teasing Cohodk.
You are the top dog when it comes to analizing charts around here.
what do you make of the jump in the USD index? I bought the vanguard treasury fund VUSTX around $10.70 for my 401K and its been a life saver lately as everything else has tanked. >>
No, its a fair criticism. QE2 is what killed me. After peaking in Dec 09, gold was the same price in Aug 10 just before QE2 was announced. That was "unexpected" by me. Perhaps there will be another unexpected that can push silver higher. But QE3 or QE4 wont be it.
As far as the dollar, I posted in my "important chart" thread, that the dollar has room to bounce to the 76 to 77 level. Im really surprised by the strength in the EURO, but it makes sense as global central banks gang up on the dollar to try to create global inflation. There are HUGE cracks in the basket with which the dollar competes. In Europe, Spain has a 21% unemployment rate. They have a real estate problem. I believe Spain will go the same way as Greece and Ireland. If commodities continue to suffer then Canada and Australia will wane. I believe their economies will could see substantial weakness in coming months. In Japan, well, unfortuately they are a mess. The only currency left is the Swiss franc. Switzerland is a beautiful country, but has 2 banks (and we all love banks
That said, I dont know where interest rates are headed and cant reply with any real clarity on VUSTX.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If gold and the other PM's have life left in them, and I believe they do, then silver will be dragged along.
PS---for those who would say silver is going higher cuz the dollar is crap, please look at the last 5 years. The financial system collapsed. Real estate collapsed. Countries have collapsed. Wars have been fought. Deficits have exploded. US debt has doubled. And yet the dollar is only down about 10% since 2003. Everyone expects the US to default. Many expect QE3, QE4, ect. Markets respond to the unexpected. What "unexpected" event can push silver higher?
The dollar is "only" down 10% since 2003 compared to other currencies that have also been depreciating. How can we define the strength of fiat by comparing it to other fiat?
It makes no sense, especially today when logical financial accounting has been tossed out the window. If the dollar lost 80% of it's value against gold over the past 10 yrs,
and the currencies in the dollar index (Euro and Co.) lost say "only" 73% against gold, then one could say the dollar only lost approx 10% of it's pure fiat value. Again, it's like
comparing two sky divers who both jumped out of their planes w/o chutes from 10,000 ft. Both are gliding to earth as best they can and hope to find a huge haystack to land on.
Currently sky diver A has fallen to 800 feet. Sky diver B is around the 900 foot point and is "doing 10% better than A." Currencies need to be compared to a tangible standard to
see how they are doing. One can pick PM's, CCI/CRB, oil, a mixture of assets, or any number of things. What isn't right is measuring against other depreciating currencies where
the only goal is to outprint the next guy.
What unexpected event could push silver higher? Maybe finding out that OBL is still alive? Comex runs out of the remaining 33 MILL ounces of registered silver? We know that paper
silver took a 32% hit this week. But what kind of hit did physical silver take? Will everyone that bought physical silver from $35-$49+ now run out at the first opportunity and sell
everything they have fearing a repeat of early 1980? I don't have the answer, just asking questions. The regulators killed the Hunts in 1980 with a "Bunker Buster" Bomb. This time
the buying has been all around the world. Did the 5 silver margin rate hikes affect the guy buying silver bullion over in China or India?
roadrunner
I knew it would happen.
If it is indeed over there are going to be a lot of $45 and over physical buyers who will be waiting a long time to break even.
I'm not a paper trader or a chart expert but feel this thing is far from over. I believe silver will be back in the $40s by fall and over $50 next spring.
to abject depression. Folks have said that they do not care what the price
of silver is, but we now know ,watching paper profits melt away like a sand castle
when the tide comes in, is very painful indeed. There are perhaps 4 types of folks
involved with silver. The types are:
Professional traders......They like high volume,as well as low volume and make money both short and long
Big Banks.............................There has always been the feeling that the FED coordinates
..... with the big banks as well as other Fed Institutions to hold the
..... price down or cause a panic sell off. What we are seeing is rather
...... massive, extremely painful and frankly, has suprised me in its severity.
Small stackers who are...............These folks have been stacking all the way up from 8 dollars an ounce and
....... probably averaged out at 20 dollars an ounce . They are still in the black.
in silver as a means to protect
a portion of their wealth in
absolute terms.
Small stackers who plunged ..................Some of these folks were able to pull the trigger at 40 -48 dollars an ounce and
the mix trying to make a few bucks .... and actually made some bucks
Then we have the late bloomers who came in at the level of 38 -48 dollar an ounce
and they , like many of use in the past, got singed, burned and in some cases roasted.
Let us sum up....................
1.There is a shortage silver or.... we hear that their is no shortage of silver
There is so much BS and misinformation flying around, Who knows what to believe.
2. The price is due to the efficiency of the market place or...It it due to the massive short
sales of paper silver by the big financial Institution and fed meddling. Raising the % to be placed
on margin ,being raised, has certainly proved to be a real downer. It is due to the fear of not being
able to redeem paper silver with physical silver....or it was directed by the big boys and girls to protect
their massive short positions.
3. What will be the bottom price? definitely will bottom between 25-30.....or will rally to a new high
or....will begin a slow decline from this point to 18 dollars an ounce....Reality says, who really knows.
You place your bets, and you takes your chances.
4. Is it wise to hold silver......Probably, if you are averaged in at a reasonable price.
5. Is it wise to buy silver.......It may be like trying to catch a falling knife. Slow, gradual,
accumulation is probably better in this environment rather then backing the
truck up, to load up at this time
6. Is it wise to sell your silver....The price could well go lower....The price could go higher...Who really knows.
If you own the physical silver and you are financially stretched, you might consider
selling some and holding some cash, should a real buying opportunity presents itself
7. Should you feel stupid if you were burned......Not really. It appears that some very smart people got burned. Most of us
like to brag about our wins, but we become very quiet when it comes to losses.
If you lost some money, you have an awful lot of company. It may well become
the cost of a tutorial in PM buying. So, pay attention in class.
Camelot
This is my sole bit of retained wisdom from collecting coins since 1961 and seen this scenario many times since then.---50 years since my first Coin World ad.
I'm making my rounds tomorrow and I'll listen to dealers, a couple of whom I co fund on some purchases----and I'll see if they are buying or selling and judge the weak hands that are scurrying right now.
I'm thinking 20 bucks on silver but there may not be much physical for sale if it continues to tank to that level. I'm pretty sure this correction will gain more momentum.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
1) It's not a profit or a loss until you sell the metal.
2) Your tax liability only occurs when you sell the metal.
Precious metals, for me anyhow - function as my financial asset. If I need cash, I sell some. If the precious metals takes a hit, like right now - and if I need cash - I will sell some losing positions (if any) to balance out my gains, and I come up with tax-free cash. You simply pick and choose what to sell if you need to sell. (Excel is great at keeping net gain/loss basis on each item current.)
That's one reason that I like to keep buying - I will have a variety of metals assets with different cost bases - to choose from.
If this market goes down,or up - unless I sell every ounce I have - I can usually balance my sale to a net zero by the end of the tax year. (Unless it keeps going up, and up.)
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I hate saying this but the way it went up and the way it went down, it does look like manipulation. That is an uninformed guess, but some times things are what they appear to be. >>
So can we expect a Congressional inquiry and the perps given BIG BONUSES?
$30+ silver and it's over for Silver??
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>So in the last week...the fundamentals for silver changes?...No.
$30+ silver and it's over for Silver?? >>
It's over when the "deep pocket boys" say it's over.
I could not believe all the people that kept buying at >$40. Same kind of people that bought at >$40 in the 80's I assume.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>$10.50 billion dollars worth traded hands today. I hate to say it folks, but it is looking increasingly likely that it is over. I hope everyone had a fun ride over the last 10 years. >>
OK, I'll bite.
I'm a self-professed mental midget in charts and investing, and only following POG/S since mid-07. can you explain or a little more commentary please? (esp 'it is over' and '10 years') and your AGQ position today? Many thanks for your comments and perspective.
Don
PS I understand the WOW!!!
Yeah, I bot some AGQ calls today hoping for a bounce. It didnt come...yet. There is a little price support and 50% retracement level within about another buck so im gonna hold. I do not have a high degree of confidence in this trade.
Silver rallied 12 fold over the last 10 years. That is an incredible rally and probably rivals some of the greatest for an asset most anyone alive has ever seen. The length of time--a decade--is also incredible as most usually occur in 3-7 years. For an asset to be able to hold it together for a decade is impressive. Now I will say that silver was probably very undervalued at $4 but the rally is what it is---12 fold over 10 years. WOW, is all I can say.
But something has changed in the last week. This has been no garden variety selloff. Its scope and scale is mindblowing. It has infected all commodities. Silver may indeed try to may another stab at breaking the almighty $50 mark, but I believe the next attempt will be measured in years, not months. Not to say silver cant bounce back into the 40's--I have a vested interested
PS---for those who would say silver is going higher cuz the dollar is crap, please look at the last 5 years. The financial system collapsed. Real estate collapsed. Countries have collapsed. Wars have been fought. Deficits have exploded. US debt has doubled. And yet the dollar is only down about 10% since 2003. Everyone expects the US to default. Many expect QE3, QE4, ect. Markets respond to the unexpected. What "unexpected" event can push silver higher?
Come on silver bulls, push silver higher $5 in the next 4 days, so I can get out.
Thanks for the reply cohodk... I was pulled away from the computer (thankfully) so just getting back tonight and catching up.
MJ said 'what a week.'
Agreed! Felt like I rode the Loch Ness Monster 5 times in a row... time to get out of line for a little while.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
acquire massive amount of physical in the first half of 1979 that things started heading into parabolic land. The Hunt's were active in future's trading for 6 yrs without
having much effect on the price of silver. Gold actually outperformed silver during the 1970's except for part of 1979 where the Hunt's went to another level. Even w/o
the Hunts, silver would have run to >$30/oz just to match gold's move while maintaining the GSR of 27-32 seen during much of the 1970's.
Silver's bull run began no later than 1961 as inflationary forces started showing up and investors/speculators started pulling US silver coins out of circulation, this while
the govt was selling silver into the market for about 91c/oz. The cessation of silver coinage in 1965 gave silver another boost that peaked in 1968. That was the
first impulse leg of the 196 The next rally was from late 1971 to early 1974. The final rally occured from late 1976 to January 1980. Close to a 20 year run. If one wants to
get even more specific, silver's price began to rise from 1950-1960 due to increased fabrication demand following WW2. The world needed silver to rebuild, much the
way the emerging world markets need silver today to catch up. 1950-1980, was effectively a 30 yr upswing. In light of that a 20 yr pullback doesn't seem so long.
Silver should have risen much higher in price during the 1950's and 1960's but was held back by US govt price capping. The blow out in the later 1970's was the
over-reaction of a decade of price capping. This is similar to what silver just did as a result of bankster price capping for past 10 yrs.
Silver not quite being the monetary metal that gold was saw its price float on the international market quite a bit. Gold really didn't start deviating internationally all that much
from the $35.67 "fixed" price until around 1967. The London Gold Pool (G-7 nations) sold several thousand tons of gold into the market from 1962-1968 to help "manage"
the gold price in light of inflationary winds. They tossed in the towel in 1968 when they ran out of easy gold to sell while realizing they were not being very effective. A short
recession from 1969-1970 gave gold supression an extra lift. Gold would have followed the same path as silver from 1962-1967 if not for the actions of the London Gold Pool.
There was no Silver Gold Pool in the 1960's but the actions of the US Treasury constantly selling into the market were just as effective.
I think it's way too early to be declaring a long term silver bull dead in only 9 yrs. The previous boom lasted from 20-30 yrs depending on one's interpretation. Maybe this was
just the first decade of 2-3 decade run? Silver's run from 1962-1980 shows 3 distinct waves, something that commodities, and PM's specifically, tend to do. The current 10 yr
chart only shows at most 2 major advances separated by the 2008 washout. Doesn't fit the longer term mold. Note that silver basically quadrupled in each of those two legs.
What makes more sense is that a 3rd wave up is still out there that will probably also perform a quadrupling or better. The chart from 2001-2011 could easily be matched up to
the same period of 1965-1974. If silver is done after this 10 yr run, show me where the 3 upwaves are. As Devil's advocate I could say that the period from 1980-2010 was
all corrective, and 2001-2011 was a 3 wave (abc) bounce (ie a B wave). Now it would be time for the final crushing C wave taking silver back down to $1-5 again. Unfortunately,
that doesn't quite fit with the world's current monetary, financial, and economic fundamentals.
The Silver Institute link below has some good general information.
Charts and history from the silver institute
10 year chart
Silver chart 1965-1980
roadrunner
Very possible roadrunner. Silver could sit at 20-30 for the next 5 years. An unwelcomed thought for the masses who piled in over the last 2 months. Those who bought in at 8, 10, 12 would see a nice doubling over 7 or 8 years producing a very market ordinary return of 10%.
Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Turn those machines back on!" - Mortimer Duke
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
5 step wave that really didn't take a pummeling the first few days/weeks. It wasn't until July where silver derivatives were doubled from $90 BILL
to $190 BILL (about 13 yrs of annual production for that time) that the huge forces were unleashed against silver, gold, and oil. This current pullback
is already distinctly V shaped, unlike 2008. Rule of alternation in EW waves. It therefore will probably take much less time.
It's interesting that the pulses in silver have peaked about every 2 yrs: 2004, 2006, 2008, and then Dec 2009. This current peak, if a final one of a
2 yr cycle is way early. It would have been projected for the late fall or even early 2012.
Armstrong looks for silver and gold to peak in the 2015-2016 time frame or later. That would follow the course of the 1974-1976 correction. His
business confidence model of 8.6 year cycles points to a major bottom in mid-June 2011. This would be equivalent to business confidence expressed in
November 2002 and in the future in January 2020. The metals have tended to do their best during lowering confidence periods. We just went through
the largest one from 4/19/09 - 6/14/11. The next cycle is one of rising confidence which runs through July 2013 (equiv to Nov 2002 - Jan 2005). While
there are similarities to stock market cycles in this model, they don't line up exactly. What I get from Armstrong's model is that things should be tougher
for PM's over the next 2 yrs than they were during the previous 2 yrs. But like everything else, it's just a model.
Those who bought in at 8, 10, 12 would see a nice doubling over 7 or 8 years producing a very market ordinary return of 10%.
The final leg is silver may take it to $130-$380. I'll take those very ordinary returns. A 4-5 bagger from here would be the minimum expected. But a 10 bagger
along the lines of 1979-80 is possible. GSR just didn't peak out for good at 31....no more than the Dow/Gold ratio bottomed out at 7 in March 2009. The financial and
monetary events around the world are occuring at a quickening pace. There are not years to dilly dally and extend things out indefinitely. Silver can be a store of
wealth, just not at $45/oz in April 2011. It's a much better store of wealth today, just 2 weeks later. Pick your top for gold, then pick your GSR, that's what silver
should get to within 1-5 yrs. I think a conservative view is $2500 / 25 / $100. I think the PTB's picked about the perfect place to put the hurt on silver (ie at the
1980 non-inflation adjusted high). J6P will probably not touch it for another 30 yrs at the banksters just showed him how "volatile" metals can be. Better to stick
your money in bonds or stocks. But I don't think his Asian and European counterparts view it the same way. Nope, fundamentals have not changed. But TA can
trump fundamentals at any time. We just witnessed that big time. 5 "paper silver" margin hikes in <2 weeks trumps a Royal "Flush" or even 5 Aces.
That same trumpable TA also indicates there is a missing up wave out there.
roadrunner
<< <i>$10.50 billion dollars worth traded hands today. I hate to say it folks, but it is looking increasingly likely that it is over. I hope everyone had a fun ride over the last 10 years. >>
If this really is the trend, you'd have gold falling fast and the US dollar rising fast.
I see neither happening.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
Why compare silver with treasuries?
The fundamentals have changed. Silver is not $10 anymore. The risk/reward has been altered. 99.99999% of the world doesnt give a rats butt about the price of silver. It is only important to those who have great sums of money who see an asset they can play, and to those who find an emotional or spiritual attachment. Silver does not have "fundamental" support like corn or oil does. Humans cannot live without food or heat. I dont think anyone's health would be affected if silver were to disappear tomorrow.
Silver's fundamentals are all based on beliefs, no different than the belief in a fiat currency. So why base one belief against another? Kind of sounds like religion.
For the record, I am no saying silver is DEAD. But I am saying its value as a store of wealth is becoming more risky. The higher it goes, the more attractive other assets become. One should look at the relative strength in gold with a watchful eye.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
Why compare silver with treasuries?
The fundamentals have changed. Silver is not $10 anymore. The risk/reward has been altered. 99.99999% of the world doesnt give a rats butt about the price of silver. It is only important to those who have great sums of money who see an asset they can play, and to those who find an emotional or spiritual attachment. Silver does not have "fundamental" support like corn or oil does. Humans cannot live without food or heat. I dont think anyone's health would be affected if silver were to disappear tomorrow.
Silver's fundamentals are all based on beliefs, no different than the belief in a fiat currency. So why base one belief against another? Kind of sounds like religion.
For the record, I am no saying silver is DEAD. But I am saying its value as a store of wealth is becoming more risky. The higher it goes, the more attractive other assets become. One should look at the relative strength in gold with a watchful eye. >>
Yes, Silver's fundamentals are based on beliefs, but in some cultures (China, Asia and India) these 'beliefs' are strong and have a history of 5000 years.
We here in North America don't give that fact enough credit.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
Why compare silver with treasuries?
The fundamentals have changed. Silver is not $10 anymore. The risk/reward has been altered. 99.99999% of the world doesnt give a rats butt about the price of silver. It is only important to those who have great sums of money who see an asset they can play, and to those who find an emotional or spiritual attachment. Silver does not have "fundamental" support like corn or oil does. Humans cannot live without food or heat. I dont think anyone's health would be affected if silver were to disappear tomorrow.
Silver's fundamentals are all based on beliefs, no different than the belief in a fiat currency. So why base one belief against another? Kind of sounds like religion.
For the record, I am not saying silver is DEAD. But I am saying its value as a store of wealth is becoming more risky or less "valuable". The higher it goes, the more attractive other assets become. One should look at the relative strength in gold with a watchful eye. >>
Yes, Silver's fundamentals are based on beliefs, but in some cultures (China, Asia and India) these 'beliefs' are strong and have a history of 5000 years.
We here in North America don't give that fact enough credit. >>
At $40/oz, the average Indian must work for 14 days to be able to buy 1 ounce. The average Chinese worker must work for 7 days. A grumbling tummy will always overshadow ones beliefs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
Why compare silver with treasuries?
The fundamentals have changed. Silver is not $10 anymore. The risk/reward has been altered. 99.99999% of the world doesnt give a rats butt about the price of silver. It is only important to those who have great sums of money who see an asset they can play, and to those who find an emotional or spiritual attachment. Silver does not have "fundamental" support like corn or oil does. Humans cannot live without food or heat. I dont think anyone's health would be affected if silver were to disappear tomorrow.
Silver's fundamentals are all based on beliefs, no different than the belief in a fiat currency. So why base one belief against another? Kind of sounds like religion.
For the record, I am not saying silver is DEAD. But I am saying its value as a store of wealth is becoming more risky or less "valuable". The higher it goes, the more attractive other assets become. One should look at the relative strength in gold with a watchful eye. >>
Yes, Silver's fundamentals are based on beliefs, but in some cultures (China, Asia and India) these 'beliefs' are strong and have a history of 5000 years.
We here in North America don't give that fact enough credit. >>
At $40/oz, the average Indian must work for 14 days to be able to buy 1 ounce. The average Chinese worker must work for 7 days. A grumbling tummy will always overshadow ones beliefs. >>
How many paid coffee breaks is that for the average American?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
Why compare silver with treasuries?
The fundamentals have changed. Silver is not $10 anymore. The risk/reward has been altered. 99.99999% of the world doesnt give a rats butt about the price of silver. It is only important to those who have great sums of money who see an asset they can play, and to those who find an emotional or spiritual attachment. Silver does not have "fundamental" support like corn or oil does. Humans cannot live without food or heat. I dont think anyone's health would be affected if silver were to disappear tomorrow.
Silver's fundamentals are all based on beliefs, no different than the belief in a fiat currency. So why base one belief against another? Kind of sounds like religion.
For the record, I am not saying silver is DEAD. But I am saying its value as a store of wealth is becoming more risky or less "valuable". The higher it goes, the more attractive other assets become. One should look at the relative strength in gold with a watchful eye. >>
Yes, Silver's fundamentals are based on beliefs, but in some cultures (China, Asia and India) these 'beliefs' are strong and have a history of 5000 years.
We here in North America don't give that fact enough credit. >>
At $40/oz, the average Indian must work for 14 days to be able to buy 1 ounce. The average Chinese worker must work for 7 days. A grumbling tummy will always overshadow ones beliefs. >>
The median income in both of those countries is much higher than that and has been rising. Still very low as compared to the US but tens of millions can afford silver and are buying.
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<< <i>Those who bought at 45 thinking silver is a "store of wealth" are wondering if the "store" they just visited was really a pawn shop.
Granted the price of silver at $45/oz. was probably about 8 months ahead of itself. Let's see how the money creation game proceeds.
I'm betting that your pawn shop experience with silver at $45/oz. wouldn't be as bad as walking into a bank to buy Treasuries, as of today's prices.
Why compare silver with treasuries?
The fundamentals have changed. Silver is not $10 anymore. The risk/reward has been altered. 99.99999% of the world doesnt give a rats butt about the price of silver. It is only important to those who have great sums of money who see an asset they can play, and to those who find an emotional or spiritual attachment. Silver does not have "fundamental" support like corn or oil does. Humans cannot live without food or heat. I dont think anyone's health would be affected if silver were to disappear tomorrow.
Silver's fundamentals are all based on beliefs, no different than the belief in a fiat currency. So why base one belief against another? Kind of sounds like religion.
For the record, I am not saying silver is DEAD. But I am saying its value as a store of wealth is becoming more risky or less "valuable". The higher it goes, the more attractive other assets become. One should look at the relative strength in gold with a watchful eye. >>
Yes, Silver's fundamentals are based on beliefs, but in some cultures (China, Asia and India) these 'beliefs' are strong and have a history of 5000 years.
We here in North America don't give that fact enough credit. >>
At $40/oz, the average Indian must work for 14 days to be able to buy 1 ounce. The average Chinese worker must work for 7 days. A grumbling tummy will always overshadow ones beliefs. >>
The median income in both of those countries is much higher than that and has been rising. Still very low as compared to the US but tens of millions can afford silver and are buying. >>
The median income numbers I am using are from 2010. But it doesnt matter, if the price of silver rises faster than income, then there will be demand destruction.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In a local sense that's true. But on a global scale we've already seen big money flow to commodities as demand destruction occurs in other areas. Most of the money
being created by the FED (through and/or around the monetary system) found its way to other assets other than where Congress expected it to go.
The average Joe Six Pack in the USA saw silver nearly triple in less than a year. Did he experience similarly large demand destruction? Not really. Maybe on the order
of of 5-30% depending on how he spends his money. Gold and silver are an irrelevant side show for a lot of the world, and to 95% of Americans.
roadrunner
I couldnt agree more, and is why I do not place as much significance on them as many. I own physical positions in both metals, but do not and will not rely on them for my health--mental, physical, financial or otherwise.
Regarding demand destruction---at some point, silver will reach a price at which it has NO buyers. With hesitation, I will say I dont think it is at that price, but should /when it comes, it will no longer be a store of value. Its demise will occur as fast, if not faster, than what happened last week. Did J6P get out? Does J6P have a plan? I think the answer to both is no. J6P is most likely to suffer serious health issues.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hind sight makes all of us, experts on what we should have
done, when we should have done it ect, ect. The only thing I
know for sure is the following:
1. Commodities and stocks, generally fall at a faster rate
then the rate that they go up.
2. Taking profits to regain your seed money is not a stupid idea.
If you play the game,try to do it with profits, rather then continuing to
risk your investment money, when you have fat profits to tap into.
3. Having a reasonable amount of PMs is not a bad idea , in order to have
some protection against the losses due to inflation, whether it be gradual at
3% a year or Hyper at hundreds and thousands of multiples. Just do not place
all your chips on the horse race and join the herd, after the easy money has
already been made by the big boys.
4. Retaining a portion of your investment money, is always a good idea. Great
opportunities always seem to occur when you are tapped out. It is very
frustrating when you recognize opportunity and can not take advantage of it.
5.People who make money in PMs, are either very smart or very lucky. When folks
brag about their score, It is always difficult to know whether it was smarts, or luck.
Camelot
Knowledge is the enemy of fear