Why falling silver doesnt bother me at all.
gecko109
Posts: 8,231 ✭
There are 2 basic groups of metal bugs. "Group A" is a buy/hold physical, while "group B" is a speculative get in/out group.
"Group A" doesnt really care about silver dropping from $48 to $39 because in almost all cases, they have been stacking silver at pre $20.....and some even at pre $10 levels for quite some time. They primarily buy the physical metals as an insurance policy of sorts.....against an ever falling dollar and a hedge against other possible risky paper investments. In fact, most "group A" people enjoy dips like this....as it allows them to buy more metal for the same money as it did last week. I am decidedly a group A person.
"Group B" people hate this retraction. In fact, it is they who are actually responsible for it! They sit in front of computers and buy/sell all the while not even caring about the actual commodity they are trading. Most of them own no physical metal at all, and only care about quick profits. Their motivation is much different than "group A" people, in that its the ROI that is their driving force. To them, metals are simply another avenue to exploit in order to make a fast buck. They are bandwagoners. They may even be classified as being "bad" for the overall commodity markets. It is they who both drove up silver to $48, and then again drove it back down to $39. In the total absence of "group B" people, there would not be anywhere near the volatility currently seen in the silver market. Signing your name, or clicking a mouse is easy. Stacking the physical metals over the course of a decade is dedication.
"Group A" doesnt really care about silver dropping from $48 to $39 because in almost all cases, they have been stacking silver at pre $20.....and some even at pre $10 levels for quite some time. They primarily buy the physical metals as an insurance policy of sorts.....against an ever falling dollar and a hedge against other possible risky paper investments. In fact, most "group A" people enjoy dips like this....as it allows them to buy more metal for the same money as it did last week. I am decidedly a group A person.
"Group B" people hate this retraction. In fact, it is they who are actually responsible for it! They sit in front of computers and buy/sell all the while not even caring about the actual commodity they are trading. Most of them own no physical metal at all, and only care about quick profits. Their motivation is much different than "group A" people, in that its the ROI that is their driving force. To them, metals are simply another avenue to exploit in order to make a fast buck. They are bandwagoners. They may even be classified as being "bad" for the overall commodity markets. It is they who both drove up silver to $48, and then again drove it back down to $39. In the total absence of "group B" people, there would not be anywhere near the volatility currently seen in the silver market. Signing your name, or clicking a mouse is easy. Stacking the physical metals over the course of a decade is dedication.
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Type A Personality here also
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<< <i>Can people to part A & B at the same time??? >>
Yes they can, because I am.
>
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Other then that, it never bothers me.
I agree that selling right now would be completely foolish. Everyone and their mother knew a serious correction was near. Just last week I called for at least a 25% correction in Silver. 20% has been realized. Trades that get this crowded ALL eventually tank, and that's what happening now. To sell what I have (the part that I stack) would be really foolish right now.
I'm going to sell because the market is so manipulated and trying to tell me that Silver is now worth $40 when it was almost $50 4 trading days ago? Gimme a break. Not enough has changed. The whole OBL has absolutely nothing to do with it, pure coincidence imo. A "reason" to sell, all be it totally unjustified.
Sit tight with what you have "stacked", take a vacation from it all for a week or 2, enjoy yourself with the rewards you've created for yourself, take a deep breath...and know that all will be ok in a relatively short period of time. And for me to say that, everyone knowing that I bashed this Bull run up til about $35 silver saying it can't keep going, means alot I think.
Oh, and most importantly, BUY THIS DIP!
Yes they can, because I am.
Me too.
<< <i>Can people to part A & B at the same time??? >>
Although "hybrids" can and do exist, they are either more "A" or "B"....rather than split evenly between the two groups. Everyone likes to make a buck or two....thats just in our DNA. But because you enjoy making money, dont confuse that with being a "group B" personality. A true "group B" type cares ONLY about the investment aspect of metals. If you look at metals from purely a money making venture...then you are a "group B" person. A true "group A" person is also happy making short term profits, and feels good during metal upswings.....but at the end of the day, whats most important to him is having a stack.....not the daily closing price.
I am sure there are some Bs without any metals, but I have
never known one.
The metals are about MONEY. They are to be used/bought/sold/
traded for MONEY. They are NOT sacred or holy or mystical. They
help insure/preserve/increase WEALTH. They help create a sense
of well-being, because they represent MONEY.
Wealth and MONEY help assure personal freedom. Buy-and-Wait
is one path to profiting from the metals; buy/sell, LONG/SHORT
is another way to USE the metals and put them in service to
those that control them. NEITHER "A nor B" is worse/better than
the other.
Absent speculators, "stackers" would NEVER have an opportunity
to profit. The latter would simply have an insurance policy that
could ONLY payoff in the face of circumstances that MOST of the
"stackers" would NEVER be able to physically survive.
Speculators bring absolute liquidity into the game; w/o that liquidity,
the "stackers" would be assigned to wait for the worst so that they
could be KINGS of NOTHING when their "insurance policy" FINALLY
paid its proceeds.
Speculators create the supply/demand circumstances that allow the
"stackers" to feel safe in the FALSE "knowledge" that "metals are scarce"
relative to MONEY. When the speculators' MONEY "changes its mind"
about how to best profit from metals, up/down movements occur, bubbles
inflate/deflate, and BOTH the "stackers"and the speculators have an EQUAL
opportunity to take profits and losses.
Speculators deliver an egalitarian market; run them out and the "stackers"
will have NO game to play in.
....................................
Sol Nazerman: I do not believe in God, or art, or science, or newspapers, or politics, or philosophy.
Jesus Ortiz: Then, Mr. Teacher, ain't there nothing you do believe in?
Sol Nazerman: Money.
Jesus Ortiz: That's all life is about?
Sol Nazerman: That's all life is about!
Jesus Ortiz: You mean... money is the whole thing?
Sol Nazerman: Money is the whole thing!
....................................................
"Stackers" and speculators are playing the same game for the
same reason: TO MAKE MONEY.
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<< <i>There are 2 basic groups of metal bugs.
In fact, most "group A" people enjoy dips like this....as it allows them to buy more metal for the same money as it did last week. I am decidedly a group A person.
Signing your name, or clicking a mouse is easy. Stacking the physical metals over the course of a decade is dedication. >>
Yes it is dedication, but it doesn't necessarily mean it is smart. Based on the fairly negative tone of your description of Group B, I would say that you DO NOT enjoy the dips and it does bother you that silver has gone from 48 to 39. You see stacking and holding as somehow more noble than short-term buying and selling. Despite the different approaches, both groups are just in it for the money. Not sure what is wrong with that. I'm probably more of a Group A, but I just don't see exactly what point you are trying to make.
Glen
Box of 20
About a couple of weeks ago, he convinced ME that he wanted to sell it, because he was happy with the financial gain, eventhough I told him in the future the price will still go up.
We sold it for $4500.
Well, just today I bought it back for him at $3900.
Junior just made a $600 profit, while his Old Man is still sitting on his silver with 0 profit!!
Oh well, I'm glad he's regained his 100 oz bar.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>.......Junior just made a $600 profit.......... >>
He is actually still out of pocket $600 from his original $1,200 investment.
The good news is that he is only into the 100oz bar for $600 now instead of $1,200 ($6 an ounce).
In 2005 I put 20% of my net worth into PMs at 7.10 and 440 oz. Since then my house value has crashed 50%, my company has closed, I work part time and the company stock I had is worth nothing. Now my PMs make up over 80% of my NW. I have seen a lot of up and down in this manipulated market but it still bothers me when 80% of my net worth takes a 15-20% cut in 3 days. I've considered a little diversification but into what?? stocks?, bonds? all are just Wall Street instruments to rob us.
I have no intent to add and no intent to sell. I filled my truck a lot lower and resisted the urge to sell at 25, a strong urge at 30 and had to fight hard to stay put at 35. I decided at 40 I would take the full ride.
I'm confident that the silver rise will continue topping 50, maybe a week or a month or a couple of years. Confidence is great but Id prefer seeing a current quote over 50 and right now its under 40.
In any event Im in to stay but sometimes the ride gets real shaky.
I'm in group A and I care that it went down. I'd prefer it hit 50.00 and stay there!
But like you mentioned I'm in at below 10.00 on average and probably wouldn't have old at 50.00 either.
Steve
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
Good luck timing the metals market!
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<< <i>take a vacation from it all for a week or 2 >>
yup
And what does "caring" about the underlying commodity have to do with investing anyway. I care about my family, including my two Mini Schnauzers, but I "manage" my investments. And I manage my investments in order to have more money to make the things I care about happy.
Now, I don't trade on a daily basis, and I don't trade paper bullion at all, I like to be able to touch it. But I do try to buy when the price is low, hold it for a while, then sell when the price is high. So I had a bit of shiney silver (actual metal in hand) that I had bought between $8 and $20, and in February and March I sold it all. Yep, I missed the run up to the absolute peak, but I was happy enough to make a pretty decent profit. And now that the fed and the banksters have it going down I will jump back in at some point and buy some more, seeing it going down may offer another investment opportunity in the near future.
I do care about profits, and I don't see that as being a bad thing as it is what "investing" is all about. I don't think stacking metal for decades is necessarily a smart investment, but it's fine if other people want to do that. I certainly won't rant about it, and I won't rant about people trying to make themselves believe that "this time is different". I will simply say that any person who has actual studied and invested for decades is sure to notice that just as surely as things go up, they go back down. Silver has been in an obvious bubble for the past couple of years providing returns that are unsustainable over the long term. Some Group A people (as described in the OP) don't want to accept this but it doesn't change the facts. If you were happy to buy silver at $49 and are prepared to sit on it at $37 waiting for it to climb back then good for you. I simply prefer to sell when I have a decent profit then buy back in when I see another opportunity.
How far down will it go? I have no idea, it might settle in the mid 30's, could go to the mid 20's.
When it will it go back up? I have no idea, it might go up to 100 this year, it might be another 30 years before it approaches 50 again.
I don't treat investment in PM's any different than stocks for example, I try to buy stocks when they are low, then sell them when they go up and provide a decent return. So I continue to watch the PM prices, yes, on a daily basis. At some point I will jump back in with some physical and put it away while I wait for the price to go up and provide a decent return. That might mean selling in 6 months, or it could mean holding it for 10 years. If the returns are sustainable and based on actual supply and demand I have no problem at all with holding it very long term.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>
<< <i>.......Junior just made a $600 profit.......... >>
He is actually still out of pocket $600 from his original $1,200 investment.
The good news is that he is only into the 100oz bar for $600 now instead of $1,200 ($6 an ounce). >>
I understand what you're saying, but I still disagree.
He's made $600!!
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>.......Junior just made a $600 profit.......... >>
He is actually still out of pocket $600 from his original $1,200 investment.
The good news is that he is only into the 100oz bar for $600 now instead of $1,200 ($6 an ounce). >>
I understand what you're saying, but I still disagree.
He's made $600!! >>
Can't argue with that logic.
#1, he made a profit of $3,300.
#2, he has a PAPER loss of $450 but also has a physical asset worth $3,450.
Edited for spelling
You just keep telling yourself that.
<< <i>Sold 75% of mine (physical) last Monday morn, with spot at $48.81 (it had crested $50 at about 2am that night/early AM, and then started to drop). I haven't even had time to spend it, yet, it's gone down so fast...but at this level, I know exactly what I'm going to spend it on now. I'll give it a little time to drop a bit more, but it makes it so much easier knowing I can buy 20% more for what I just cashed out for. >>
Feels good doesn't it?
<< <i>
<< <i>Sold 75% of mine (physical) last Monday morn, with spot at $48.81 (it had crested $50 at about 2am that night/early AM, and then started to drop). I haven't even had time to spend it, yet, it's gone down so fast...but at this level, I know exactly what I'm going to spend it on now. I'll give it a little time to drop a bit more, but it makes it so much easier knowing I can buy 20% more for what I just cashed out for. >>
Feels good doesn't it?
It soitanly does!!
I'm buying more physical AG in the 20's.
CU Ancient Members badge member.
Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
But damn't, I sure was thinking that silver would reach $70 on this run (though I never publicly said it).
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>
<< <i>Can people to part A & B at the same time??? >>
Yes they can, because I am. >>
Same here.
The walk away in May thing & profit taking. JMO
<< <i>I am sure there are some Bs without any metals, but I have
never known one.
The metals are about MONEY. They are to be used/bought/sold/
traded for MONEY. They are NOT sacred or holy or mystical. They
help insure/preserve/increase WEALTH. They help create a sense
of well-being, because they represent MONEY.
Wealth and MONEY help assure personal freedom. Buy-and-Wait
is one path to profiting from the metals; buy/sell, LONG/SHORT
is another way to USE the metals and put them in service to
those that control them. NEITHER "A nor B" is worse/better than
the other.
Absent speculators, "stackers" would NEVER have an opportunity
to profit. The latter would simply have an insurance policy that
could ONLY payoff in the face of circumstances that MOST of the
"stackers" would NEVER be able to physically survive.
Speculators bring absolute liquidity into the game; w/o that liquidity,
the "stackers" would be assigned to wait for the worst so that they
could be KINGS of NOTHING when their "insurance policy" FINALLY
paid its proceeds.
Speculators create the supply/demand circumstances that allow the
"stackers" to feel safe in the FALSE "knowledge" that "metals are scarce"
relative to MONEY. When the speculators' MONEY "changes its mind"
about how to best profit from metals, up/down movements occur, bubbles
inflate/deflate, and BOTH the "stackers"and the speculators have an EQUAL
opportunity to take profits and losses.
Speculators deliver an egalitarian market; run them out and the "stackers"
will have NO game to play in.
....................................
Sol Nazerman: I do not believe in God, or art, or science, or newspapers, or politics, or philosophy.
Jesus Ortiz: Then, Mr. Teacher, ain't there nothing you do believe in?
Sol Nazerman: Money.
Jesus Ortiz: That's all life is about?
Sol Nazerman: That's all life is about!
Jesus Ortiz: You mean... money is the whole thing?
Sol Nazerman: Money is the whole thing!
....................................................
"Stackers" and speculators are playing the same game for the
same reason: TO MAKE MONEY. >>
The metals are MONEY. Federal Reserve Notes, token coinage, checking account balances, savings account balances and bonds are varieties of CURRENCY. CURRENCY is not MONEY.
I have been concentrating on buying rare 1970's silver art bars on ebay. Since I am buying them on ebay, this drop does not matter to me that spot is because I am paying a "colletor premium" for these rare 1970's silver art bars that I love to collect. I buy them on ebay instead of locally at a coin dealer because the silver art bars that I am looking to collect are very hard to find locally because of the low mintage numbers (mintage numbers between 100 to 300 each). I am doing this for the enjoyment of collecting silver art bars and I do not mind paying the "collector premium" for these rare '70's silver art bars since collecting them gives me something to enjoy. I am just a collector and I buy the rare silver art bars that I like to collect because that makes me happy.
I am just a silver art bar collector. I am not buying silver for SHTF prepping because I am not a SHTF prepper. I do not buy silver as an investment because I am not an investor. I do not trade paper silver (i.e. SLV) because I am not a trader. I am not a serious silver stacker and I do not plan to be. I am just a person that likes to collect rare silver art bars. Nothing more nothing less. I am going to continue to buy the silver art bars that are on my silver art bar "wish list" while I still can afford to do so. I treat this as a hobby and the falling silver prices just means for me that I can buy silver art bars at a lower price ONLY IF I can buy them locally from a local dealer or a local coin show for a reasonable .999 silver premum.
I am not sure which group I fit in but that is my reason why falling silver does not bother me at all.
FOR SALE Items
I kinda expected a shakeup after the spike, and decided to hold, just hope it does'nt blackin the eye of the coin hobby like I
feel it did after 1980, which and gave rise to the sport and everything else cardboard speculaters.
But will the CP's manuel and TPG's recognise us for different type's as I definately think the Type A is far scarcer
Steve
you should be afraid of the point. The point being, one should
take periodic profits out of your stash, until you have all of your
seed money back and are playing solely with profits. But on the
other hand,.....I also have four fingers and a thumb.
Perhaps in my case, I should have said my paw.
It is very similar to the Vegas Strategy. Let us say you decide on
200 dollars to gamble. You keep your gambling money in one pocket
and your winnings in another pocket. When your gambling money is
gone, you never go into your winnings. That way at the end of the visit,
you can only lose somewhat less then your seed money or in some cases
you come out a winner, rather then a wiener.
Camelot