Isn't May Day a big communist holiday in the People's Republic of Cadmium???? If it falls on a Sunday, do they get Monday off????
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
It's only a fearful reaction to the raising of margin requirements, the new way to beat down the silver price. The increase in margin requirements was designed and executed to create panic in the market. It is only a temporary affect and will be followed by more raising of margin requirements until silver can no longer be purchased on margin. This will not change the fundamentals of physical silver as it will remain in shortage and in demand. Keep your eye on the ball, it's all about the fundamentals. Those that are not influenced by these efforts to influence will be rewarded.
A quick review of ebay shows sellers pretty much sticking to their fundamental guns. Unlike the CRIMEX, ebay is a true marketplace where supply and demand set the final price. You can join in the panic and sell but chances are it will cost you more later to buy it back.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>There are only two reasons that I can think of for selling strong into a thin market and driving the price down:
1. You have info that others don't and want to take your profits now and expect the info to become public any minute (like the movie "Trading Places").
2. Shorts knowing they can manipulate the market, spook some weak holders, get momentum moving down, and cover their short positions (much larger short positions that the sale it took to move the thin market.)
If it is the latter tonight, then based on the responses to this thread I believe they may have some success. However, if the market recovers because there is still pent up buying demand on the sidelines (like it looks like) then it may backfire on them since a quick recovery would probably be viewed by most as strength. I agree with that view.
--Jerry
PS a 3rd would be ignorance/stupidity. I assume people making this size trade are generally aware of what they are doing. >>
I use the "gut feeling" method. My gut says hold/buy more. Why can't this just be the dip that everyone has been wishing for?
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
The White House just called a press conference for the half hour. Something is up.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Not kidding. Wolf Blitzer says it is re a matter of national security, but not Libya.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< I still think $100 before $10, but it cannot happen until the BIG crooks feel safe/satisfied. >>
Or lose control of the situation, due to the growing imbalance between physical silver supply and demand.
It makes sense to me that they would increase margin requirements just before hitting a thinly-traded market in order to spook the weaker hands into selling.
On another note, Geithner was apparently talking yesterday or today about the automakers, and how they will not be able to finish paying off their loans. But the bright side is how many jobs were "saved" with the $80 billion. He's also been spouting off about how much fiscal trouble we are in, no doubt as a precursor to the tax hike discussions.
We also have big personnel shuffles in Dept of Defense, CIA, and Cencom. There's alot going on, and we don't get to know much of what it's about. Somebody knows, though and the markets might be uneasy about alot of it. How are stocks doing? The dollar looks to be all over the chart tonight.
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<< <i>I would suspect oil down hard tomorrow. No wonder gold/silver down so much tonight
US stocks should get a nice pop >>
Agreed...huge increase in US stocks...probably a GIANT drop in oil that will slowly recover. Gold and silver will likely drop as much as 20% based on pure emotion, but from what I've been reading here, I'd think this is a temp situation...fundamentals haven't changed.
Of course, this could kick off an economic recovery that might actually be real and have legs...dunno.
That guy sure made his (ugly) mark on the world...
I think by morning business intelligence will figure out that although great news, this has no real effect on the fundamentals or the future of the US economy. --Jerry
Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a Monday price massacre. Shot of whiskey and a good night's sleep will work wonders.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Momentum is everything in a speculative market, especially when the most horespower on price movement comes from an investment vehicle (SLV) which happens to be the speculator's weapon of choice. Speculators are the first to blink their eyes. Where silver is at when the pre-market opens will determine silver price's short term fate. Tomorrow is a day where the silver investor needs to take his eye off the dollar and keep it on SLV. Paper will drive short term movement, fundamentals will drive long term movements.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Well, silver crashed several hours before the initial reports, so that seems unlikely.
1. The recession is over and we're back to full employment.
2. The dollar is soaring.
3. The U.S. government and all 50 states are running a huge surplus.
4. Inflation has disappeared. Gasoline is back under $2.00.
5. Peace has broken out in the Middle East.
6. All the derivatives have settled, and our banking system is now sound.
7. There is a huge surplus of silver, no one knows what to do with it all.
Did I miss anything? >>
Well, number 5 suddenly looks more interesting....
I'm in the Tokyo time zone and noticed the crash and burn going on first thing this morning and the bin Laden reports didn't start for a couple or so hours until after that.
I would have guessed that if there was a leak about an upcoming Middle East/national security announcement that would have had the opposite effect on the markets (and in fact they have come up from the lows I saw earlier). It seems hard to believe that the SEALs/CIA mission could have been compromised so badly the PM markets could have reacted in advance--at least without other leaks getting back to the target. I'm just speculating, but honestly, I think it was a coincidence.
It’s (still) the economy: Yes, this is giant news. Yes, this will be a defining moment of the Obama presidency. No, it will not likely fundamentally alter the over-arching issue of the 2012 election, which is, and is nearly-certain to remain, the economy.
In the coming weeks, the economy will take a backseat to the unspooling of the details of bin Laden’s death. But, the story will — at some point — lose steam and begin to move from the top of peoples’ minds. (To be clear: it’s not likely to disappear entirely given the magnitude of what the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 meant to the country.)
When that happens, gas prices, the unemployment rate and the general direction of the economy will reassert themselves as major issues heading into next November.
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<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Well, silver crashed several hours before the initial reports, so that seems unlikely. >>
Do you honestly believe that you heard the news at the exact same time as the other 7 billion people on Earth? Really?
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Well, silver crashed several hours before the initial reports, so that seems unlikely. >>
Traders have the most highly developed information networks out there. Even if they don't get the exact news, they get "tips". They trade on the news but don't break the news or they would never get another tip. See my post on page 3, about 6 down, where I said that one of the two possible causes of this selling is that traders have some news that will be made public in a matter of hours. --Jerry
Dow opened up 8 and now is 35. I would have expected a much higher opening. But then again OBL didn't pay off our debt right before he was whacked. Nothing's changed there.
<< <i>Dow opened up 8 and now is 35. I would have expected a much higher opening. But then again OBL didn't pay off our debt right before he was whacked. Nothing's changed there. >>
I learned in years of trading volitile high flying tech stocks that the emotional reaction to symbolic events that don't really have fundamental significance are hard to predict. Often they are overstated and come back to the same point a day later. Other times they may be a spark for other pent up demand (in the buy or sell direction). If they happen while the market is closed (like this did) the analysis will be done more thoroughly and less movement will occur. In fact, I've seen good news result in negative movement after the analysis was done. So I would say, remember what you were thinking before this happened and stick with it. The most important info to gain here is the fragility of the market (not terribly negative for PMs in my opinion since it broke on sunday night in thin trading) and the resilience of the market (not bad so far and if we close up near 48 today i'd say the market is pretty resilient right now). --jerry
The initial shots against silver were fired a week ago Monday when SLV experienced massive volume against the S&P. That was the first sign that big money was shifting out of silver and into something else. That kind of relative volume is always a huge red flag when prices are already at major peaks. The bounce back towards $50 later in the week on declining momentum and volume was more fluff. Then before Friday's trading hours were over the final silver margin hike was announced. Then factor in the London markets being closed since last Thursday and Asian markets trading very light the first half of this week. Seems like the banksters set up a pretty good script to come out of this weekend looking really good. Whether JPMorgue or GS knew in advance of Bin-Laden's death remains to be seen. Since the value of the dollar is "national security" it would not surprise me if the Morgue were tipped off by someone in the administration to be ready to hammer metals this weekend while piggy backing a major news event. Why waste a good opportunity to hammer metals when it's presented on a silver platter? Just a hunch.
The weekly volume ratio of SLV/SPY last week was 3X higher than anything ever seen before. It was like a tsunami wave. Today's ratio on huge selling, if duplicated for the rest of the week, would be even larger than last week's.
<< <i>The initial shots against silver were fired a week ago Monday when SLV experienced massive volume against the S&P. That was the first sign that big money was shifting out of silver and into something else. That kind of relative volume is always a huge red flag when prices are already at major peaks. The bounce back towards $50 later in the week on declining momentum and volume was more fluff. Then before Friday's trading hours were over the final silver margin hike was announced. Then factor in the London markets being closed since last Thursday and Asian markets trading very light the first half of this week. Seems like the banksters set up a pretty good script to come out of this weekend looking really good. Whether JPMorgue or GS knew in advance of Bin-Laden's death remains to be seen. Since the value of the dollar is "national security" it would not surprise me if the Morgue were tipped off by someone in the administration to be ready to hammer metals this weekend while piggy backing a major news event. Why waste a good opportunity to hammer metals when it's presented on a silver platter? Just a hunch.
The weekly volume ratio of SLV/SPY last week was 3X higher than anything ever seen before. It was like a tsunami wave. Today's ratio on huge selling, if duplicated for the rest of the week, would be even larger than last week's.
roadrunner >>
YES, YES, YES. We have someone who has studied price/volume charts!!!! However, it makes no reason to determine "reason". It is what it is.
GSR went right to the 1983 low and has bounced almost 20%. What a pairs trade!!
Comments
A quick review of ebay shows sellers pretty much sticking to their fundamental guns. Unlike the CRIMEX, ebay is a true marketplace where supply and demand set the final price. You can join in the panic and sell but chances are it will cost you more later to buy it back.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>There are only two reasons that I can think of for selling strong into a thin market and driving the price down:
1. You have info that others don't and want to take your profits now and expect the info to become public any minute (like the movie "Trading Places").
2. Shorts knowing they can manipulate the market, spook some weak holders, get momentum moving down, and cover their short positions (much larger short positions that the sale it took to move the thin market.)
If it is the latter tonight, then based on the responses to this thread I believe they may have some success. However, if the market recovers because there is still pent up buying demand on the sidelines (like it looks like) then it may backfire on them since a quick recovery would probably be viewed by most as strength. I agree with that view.
--Jerry
PS a 3rd would be ignorance/stupidity. I assume people making this size trade are generally aware of what they are doing. >>
I use the "gut feeling" method. My gut says hold/buy more. Why can't this just be the dip that everyone has been wishing for?
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
Something is up.
Something is up."
Capn. Please tell me you are pulling my leg. Take care. jws
but not Libya.
Or lose control of the situation, due to the growing imbalance between physical silver supply and demand.
It makes sense to me that they would increase margin requirements just before hitting a thinly-traded market in order to spook the weaker hands into selling.
On another note, Geithner was apparently talking yesterday or today about the automakers, and how they will not be able to finish paying off their loans. But the bright side is how many jobs were "saved" with the $80 billion. He's also been spouting off about how much fiscal trouble we are in, no doubt as a precursor to the tax hike discussions.
We also have big personnel shuffles in Dept of Defense, CIA, and Cencom. There's alot going on, and we don't get to know much of what it's about. Somebody knows, though and the markets might be uneasy about alot of it. How are stocks doing? The dollar looks to be all over the chart tonight.
I knew it would happen.
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<< <i>bin Laden? >>
yep
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>Bin Laden has been killed. >>
That would be the news I was speculating about a dozen or so posts up. don't see how that will affect PMs long term. --Jerry
US stocks should get a nice pop
<< <i>I would suspect oil down hard tomorrow. No wonder gold/silver down so much tonight
US stocks should get a nice pop >>
Agreed...huge increase in US stocks...probably a GIANT drop in oil that will slowly recover. Gold and silver will likely drop as much as 20% based on pure emotion, but from what I've been reading here, I'd think this is a temp situation...fundamentals haven't changed.
Of course, this could kick off an economic recovery that might actually be real and have legs...dunno.
That guy sure made his (ugly) mark on the world...
Edited to clarify...
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry
<< <i>
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Momentum is everything in a speculative market, especially when the most horespower on price movement comes from an investment vehicle (SLV) which happens to be the speculator's weapon of choice. Speculators are the first to blink their eyes. Where silver is at when the pre-market opens will determine silver price's short term fate. Tomorrow is a day where the silver investor needs to take his eye off the dollar and keep it on SLV. Paper will drive short term movement, fundamentals will drive long term movements.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
<< <i>
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Well, silver crashed several hours before the initial reports, so that seems unlikely.
Possible reasons for the silver drop:
1. The recession is over and we're back to full employment.
2. The dollar is soaring.
3. The U.S. government and all 50 states are running a huge surplus.
4. Inflation has disappeared. Gasoline is back under $2.00.
5. Peace has broken out in the Middle East.
6. All the derivatives have settled, and our banking system is now sound.
7. There is a huge surplus of silver, no one knows what to do with it all.
Did I miss anything? >>
Well, number 5 suddenly looks more interesting....
I'm in the Tokyo time zone and noticed the crash and burn going on first thing this morning and the bin Laden reports didn't start for a couple or so hours until after that.
I would have guessed that if there was a leak about an upcoming Middle East/national security announcement that would have had the opposite effect on the markets (and in fact they have come up from the lows I saw earlier). It seems hard to believe that the SEALs/CIA mission could have been compromised so badly the PM markets could have reacted in advance--at least without other leaks getting back to the target. I'm just speculating, but honestly, I think it was a coincidence.
In the coming weeks, the economy will take a backseat to the unspooling of the details of bin Laden’s death. But, the story will — at some point — lose steam and begin to move from the top of peoples’ minds. (To be clear: it’s not likely to disappear entirely given the magnitude of what the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 meant to the country.)
When that happens, gas prices, the unemployment rate and the general direction of the economy will reassert themselves as major issues heading into next November.
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Well, silver crashed several hours before the initial reports, so that seems unlikely. >>
Do you honestly believe that you heard the news at the exact same time as the other 7 billion people on Earth? Really?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Am I missing something but what does "prolly" mean? >>
prolly = probably >>
Dang - I wanted to see how long it took DoubleEagle59 to figure it out!!!
I was being sarcastic.
My point was this was the only short form word in the post and to me, it just didn't fit.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Just funnin ya (playing with you).
Cheers!!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Timing of the great silver drop of 2011 and the Bin Laden announcement purely coincidental. Somebody sold a truckload of silver and everyone else panicked. If fears aren't calmed by pre-market exchange trading SLV action will turn into a price massacre. >>
Disagree. The sellers knew of bin Laden's death. Don't see any reason for a price massacre. --Jerry >>
Well, silver crashed several hours before the initial reports, so that seems unlikely. >>
Traders have the most highly developed information networks out there. Even if they don't get the exact news, they get "tips". They trade on the news but don't break the news or they would never get another tip. See my post on page 3, about 6 down, where I said that one of the two possible causes of this selling is that traders have some news that will be made public in a matter of hours. --Jerry
Oh wait, maybe this belongs ont BST.....
LM-ANA3242-CSNS308-MSNS226-ICTA
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Dow opened up 8 and now is 35. I would have expected a much higher opening. But then again OBL didn't pay off our debt right before he was whacked. Nothing's changed there. >>
I learned in years of trading volitile high flying tech stocks that the emotional reaction to symbolic events that don't really have fundamental significance are hard to predict. Often they are overstated and come back to the same point a day later. Other times they may be a spark for other pent up demand (in the buy or sell direction). If they happen while the market is closed (like this did) the analysis will be done more thoroughly and less movement will occur. In fact, I've seen good news result in negative movement after the analysis was done. So I would say, remember what you were thinking before this happened and stick with it. The most important info to gain here is the fragility of the market (not terribly negative for PMs in my opinion since it broke on sunday night in thin trading) and the resilience of the market (not bad so far and if we close up near 48 today i'd say the market is pretty resilient right now). --jerry
big money was shifting out of silver and into something else. That kind of relative volume is always a huge red flag when prices are already at major
peaks. The bounce back towards $50 later in the week on declining momentum and volume was more fluff. Then before Friday's trading hours were over
the final silver margin hike was announced. Then factor in the London markets being closed since last Thursday and Asian markets trading very light the first
half of this week. Seems like the banksters set up a pretty good script to come out of this weekend looking really good. Whether JPMorgue or GS knew in
advance of Bin-Laden's death remains to be seen. Since the value of the dollar is "national security" it would not surprise me if the Morgue were tipped off by
someone in the administration to be ready to hammer metals this weekend while piggy backing a major news event. Why waste a good opportunity to hammer
metals when it's presented on a silver platter? Just a hunch.
The weekly volume ratio of SLV/SPY last week was 3X higher than anything ever seen before. It was like a tsunami wave. Today's ratio on huge selling,
if duplicated for the rest of the week, would be even larger than last week's.
roadrunner
Camelot
<< <i>The initial shots against silver were fired a week ago Monday when SLV experienced massive volume against the S&P. That was the first sign that
big money was shifting out of silver and into something else. That kind of relative volume is always a huge red flag when prices are already at major
peaks. The bounce back towards $50 later in the week on declining momentum and volume was more fluff. Then before Friday's trading hours were over
the final silver margin hike was announced. Then factor in the London markets being closed since last Thursday and Asian markets trading very light the first
half of this week. Seems like the banksters set up a pretty good script to come out of this weekend looking really good. Whether JPMorgue or GS knew in
advance of Bin-Laden's death remains to be seen. Since the value of the dollar is "national security" it would not surprise me if the Morgue were tipped off by
someone in the administration to be ready to hammer metals this weekend while piggy backing a major news event. Why waste a good opportunity to hammer
metals when it's presented on a silver platter? Just a hunch.
The weekly volume ratio of SLV/SPY last week was 3X higher than anything ever seen before. It was like a tsunami wave. Today's ratio on huge selling,
if duplicated for the rest of the week, would be even larger than last week's.
roadrunner >>
YES, YES, YES. We have someone who has studied price/volume charts!!!! However, it makes no reason to determine "reason". It is what it is.
GSR went right to the 1983 low and has bounced almost 20%. What a pairs trade!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear