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***MAY 2011 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    LOL, Funny thing MJ was that you had even edited the post before I saw it. I couldnt resist, sorry.image


    Well, silver went right to the 50dma then got smacked down. Manipulation at its finest? Nope, just the way it happens.

    All commods weak. Copper down 10% for the year. Sugar, cotton, ect down substantially since the winter.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Backwardation may now be gone in the silver pit.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver.html


    click here
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Amazing, the top predicted by McLellan was accurate once again. It appears to me that a longer consolidation is necessary. Although that doesn't mean it can't consolidate while moving slightly up or downward - doesn't have to be flat. The next date is a bottom predicted on or around May 26, so no reason to expect anything spectacular in the next 2 weeks.

    The dollar index is continuing its rally, and it probably has some time left, which will continue to put pressure on commodities.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gaps now filled on everything but Rangold. That might take a little more time. While GLD hourly chart still shows a gap from Friday's bounce, the future's hourly chart shows that
    was filled. HUI/Gold ratio has fallen to a level not seen since July 2009. GDX/SPY ratio now lower than anything seen since April 2010. Couple of choices here. Either it's time for
    these ratios to start reversing....or....time for a longer term crash a la 2008, a notion I don't relish much. GDX or HUI now well through the 200 dma support with GDXJ just about to
    touch its 200 dma. As I count the waves it looks like a smaller abc=C is nearly complete from around early April. Now in the c portion with a final 5th wave down in progress. The
    larger ABC goes all the way back to December. GDX is once again testing the neckline of the cup formed from 2008-2010 (see monthly chart).

    Basically one big 200 dma party for anyone who has not yet participated. The silver miners still have a ways to go however.
    Dollar now ready to take on heavy resistance in the 75.5 to 76.5 range.

    GDX charts

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • SpoolySpooly Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭
    RR,

    You think silver will hit it's 200MA? What would that be 28.50??

    I would like it to bounce off 33.05 forming a double bottom.

    I'm waiting to buy.... the chart looks terrible! A two or three month base building would be fine with me.
    Si vis pacem, para bellum

    In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is a little line of price support on SLV near 33--last week's and Mar low. Below that is the 150dma at 31 and the 200 at 28. Pre-open trading had SLV at about 31.60, but coming back---33.15 as of time of this writing.

    $xau went right to the 30 month uptrend line and bounced (slightly). Will probably open below that line this morn. The close today and tomorrow will be important. A weekly close below 195 on this index will be a huge negative and open the door for a potential double top projecting down to 160--another 15% drop. Momos are very negative and I think a breakdown is highly likely. Silver will continue much lower--probably at least to the 200dma. A whopping 40% loss in just weeks.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>RR, You think silver will hit it's 200MA? What would that be 28.50??
    I would like it to bounce off 33.05 forming a double bottom.
    I'm waiting to buy.... the chart looks terrible! A two or three month base building would be fine with me. >>



    Silver has put in an approximate 5 wave set since its peak on April 25th. The 5th wave which began yesterday so far only shows 3-4 waves so far. Might not be complete.
    But the pattern seems pretty close to completion to bounce once again. Have no idea about the 200 dma but think it's quite reasonable. Silver hasn't seen that level since
    last summer. It would be a fitting place to end the correction. But might not see it until this summer. This 5 wave set coincides with what commodities in general have been
    doing (CCI).

    Interesting that GLD was not content to leave Friday's lower gap open even though the future's price filled it. GLD dipped lower today to fill that gap. PM's don't like lingering gaps.

    roadrunner

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm seeing a lot of good arguments reasons for things to go lower, and a few good reasons for things to head higher. The timing of McLellan's predicted low on May 26 coincides with the timing patterns that Nichols has identified, so I think it's pretty safe to say that PMS are going to go nowhere from here. Which for silver probably means +/-$5 from where we are now... $30-40 ish for the next two weeks. Gold is holding up well. Not sure it will head too much lower but it might have a suprise $40-50 dip in store.

    One thing is that it was widely predcited that a market top fors stocks would come in June as QE2 winds down. EVERYONE is expecting this, and we all know what happens when everyone expects one thing... Well in this case we just might be looking at an early crash, especially if the dollar strength continues.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nice reversal in commods and stocks yesterday. Most went right to the "line in the sand" and bounced. $XAU and SLV were able to close above my critical points which has resulted in a bit more strength this morn.

    Any European countries gonna fail this weekend?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Action in stocks today certainly looked horrendous (ie QQQ). And the miners didn't help much. A few of the higher flying silvers like Revett and Great Panther just got crushed today.
    The CDNX blew through the 200 dma and the GDX/GLD volume ratio was a 2 yr spike high. That spike is either suggesting a blow off bottom and reversal, or a final capitulation
    with everyone heading for the exit. There is a long list of miners now sitting well below their 200 dma's as well as those that have fallen out of their Dec-May consolidation channels.
    These guys may be headed to test 1 or 2 yr bottoms.

    Gold and silver hanging around here seems more bearish than bullish. Give silver enough time meandering here and it may fall again. The silver miners are suggesting
    bearish things still to come. They all need to get off the pot quick. Tomorrow and Friday are the heavy POMO days for this week. That leaves Wed and Thursday unguarded
    the days before stock market options expiration. This would be a perfect time to hit miners as well as equities. PM's have seemed to take more hits on Wed and Thurs than
    on Monday and Tuesday. Rangold still has that $1 gap left open. I think this week will be when it gets filled.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Soros sells 5 million paper gold shares and the market swallows them up like hotcakes. He liquidated 99% of his gld position
    and it didn't even make a dent.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Soros sells 5 million paper gold shares and the market swallows them up like hotcakes. He liquidated 99% of his gld position
    and it didn't even make a dent. >>



    He'll probably be back, only at a lower price though. It's also possible (though not likely imo) that he cashed out his shares for physical gold.
    If he comes back again, it would make sense to put away physical gold much the same way David Einhorn did when his Greelight Capital exited
    GLD a few years ago.

    The gold price falling $100 was certainly at least a "dent" in the gold market. A few more dents like that and it would be tough sledding for gold bugs.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    We are approaching the midpoint of the timing pattern going for a low on May 26, so these days can be energetic. The best targets in gold appear to be in the 1410-1420 range. We've also broken out of a triangle consolidation.

    It's also hard to imagine gold falling that much further without taking silver down a bit further with it, so it's looking more and more like we'll see $30.00 silver, and probably a dip into the high $20's.

    image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>We are approaching the midpoint of the timing pattern going for a low on May 26, so these days can be energetic. The best targets in gold appear to be in the 1410-1420 range. We've also broken out of a triangle consolidation. It's also hard to imagine gold falling that much further without taking silver down a bit further with it, so it's looking more and more like we'll see $30.00 silver, and probably a dip into the high $20's. >>



    That date coincides well with Wed (5/25) options expiration next week and the usual end of month shenanigans. Also TBond auctions Tues-Thursday. Heavy POMO days on Mon-Thurs
    is also out there. It's just whether the boyz use that dough to go short or long in equities.

    Assuming gold's consolidation triangle continues to resolve to the downside, it is projecting to $1400.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • KUCHKUCH Posts: 1,186
    I just checked Nova Gold's web site....... if it's current, Soros has not sold any positions here. He still has 5% shares. Paulson is at 8.6%. And I am at .1%image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    These were Soros' recent gold miner related moves:

    •Barrick Gold: 8500 shares vs. 4800 in the previous quarter.
    •Eldorado gold: 21,000 shares, totally new position.
    •Goldcorp: 7100 shares, totally new position.
    •Great Basin Gold: 6 million shares, up from 5.1 million in the previous quarter. (This is a $2 stock, so not a huge position).
    •Kinross Gold: 1.3 million shares, DOWN from 3.9 million in the previous quarter. (This is a $14 stock, so this is actually some real selling)
    •Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF 9,800, down form 14,400
    •NovaGold: 3.5 million shares, WAY DOWN from 12.9 million in the previous quarter. (At $10/share, this is also substantial)

    roadrunner

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This would actually be a reasonable place for a bounce. MJ

    GLD
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This would actually be a reasonable place for a bounce. MJ

    GLD >>



    I dont see any real negatives in that chart.

    So far SLV has held my $33 support (closing basis) and $XAU 195 (closing basis) over the last 5 days. This makes those levels even more important.






    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Couldn't you have said, " I agree with you."

    Is that have so hard to do?image

    I like pullbacks like that to trade off of with that volume pattern. We shall see.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Could be time for a GLD bounce. The opening gap up today in GLD, SLV, and GDXJ tends to suggest coming back shortly to refill them. And with options
    expiration looming from Friday (miners) to Wednesday (gold futures), it would be a convenient time to hit them again. Hourly charts for now are pointing
    at another 2-3 day bottom coming in around Friday. Could easily be a higher low too. GLD trying to get clear of 146 resistance and GDX clear of 56. But so
    far still struggling with them (equates to 530 HUI and 200 XAU).

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm not so sure gold is ready to proceed higher just yet. I'm going to stick with my assertion that more downside is in store - down to 1410-1420 (perhaps exceeding that briefly), as we go into the middle of next week. Although we did fully recover from the breakdown out of the penant I posted, gold would still have to breakout over 1505-1507 range to put that behind us. Until then we can expect more sideways motion, or a quick dip down.

    Stocks (SP500) look like they could be ready to start running again. Bond are overbought at the moment, so the risk trade could be back on, and that could spill over into PMs. Still I can't get over how important May 26 is "supposed" to be as a low. This actually is a perfect setup for a fakeout reversal before one last takedown.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would counter that both the GLD and S&P/INDU daily charts are very similar. Both pullbacks to the 50DMA. One is just steeper then the other which could be discounted somewhat as just part of the nature of the beast. I just happen to like the volume pattern better on the GLD pullback. Regardless, I would be surprised if GLD & the S&P went in diffrent directions at this current juncture. The dollar/euro gravitational pull has been effecting both the equities and gold market once again as of late. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Justacommeman, I know what you mean, so it makes it hard for me to act on anything right now. This is why I think the move will be fairly swift, if it happens.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Justacommeman, I know what you mean, so it makes it hard for me to act on anything right now. This is why I think the move will be fairly swift, if it happens. >>



    I hear you. I actually don't like much of anything to buy or sell short term right now. Nothing jumps out at me. Watch and waiting. I look and the bond market a lot. That's been my primary focus. One would think the bond vigilantes are beyond restless at this point. They are a patient but decisive lot. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Justacommeman, I know what you mean, so it makes it hard for me to act on anything right now. This is why I think the move will be fairly swift, if it happens. >>



    I hear you. I actually don't like much of anything to buy or sell short term right now. Nothing jumps out at me. Watch and waiting. I look and the bond market a lot. That's been my primary focus. One would think the bond vigilantes are beyond restless at this point. They are a patient but decisive lot. MJ >>



    I agree with you.image


    I did just buy some DXD though.

    These are some pretty lousy numbers and could be reason for the bond markets recent actions...

    From Briefing.com
    10:00 ECONX May Philadelphia Fed 3.9 vs 18.0 Briefing.com consensus; April 18.5

    10:00 ECONX April Exisiting Home Sales 5.05 mln vs 5.23 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 5.09 mln from 5.10 mln

    10:00 ECONX April Leading Indicators -0.3% vs 0.0% Briefing.com consensus
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have a piker TBT trade I initiated yesterday and I'm short the market from awhile ago. No much to hang my hat on and I'm behind in my short market trade. It's been a tug of war. Other then that I'm pretty flat. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • Doesn't appear that gold wants to really sell off. May and June are historically slow months.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Doesn't appear that gold wants to really sell off. May and June are historically slow months. >>



    Doesn't appear that gold wants to take off either. Short term charts are loaded with energy. Friday could see a decent move, unless it decides to wait until Monday.


  • << <i>

    << <i>Doesn't appear that gold wants to really sell off. May and June are historically slow months. >>



    Doesn't appear that gold wants to take off either. . >>



    June is usually a down month for gold. It usually doesn't take off this time of the year.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Alright, what wise guy hit the buy button? Nice little spike. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sold DXD.

    Markets have a tendency to turn higher in the few days before and after Memorial day.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • InYHWHWeTrustInYHWHWeTrust Posts: 1,448 ✭✭✭
    I have no idea what I 'm talking about, but just to post that this Ag 'dead cat' has bounced a 3rd time, with overnight buying carrying over into the daylight here 2 days in a row where did this come from?... Who's buying what? SLV? Is Ag oversold, or is it pump/dump game going on? The youngun's on margin got shaken out a couple weeks ago.

    We had one prediction for 5/26 to see a bottom... but I did not buy ZSL at close today. So, you know what that means image FWIW,I will prob not buy physical with any discretionary funds unless 90% could be had for 20x again.

    cohodk mentions the Memorial holiday history, that is very interesting, had not heard or noticed that before.

    Still waiting for the summer doldrums to set in before looking at some Au prior to the [customary] Fall upswing, but the way gold is going now, who knows if there will buying opp's during the dog days.
    Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Sold DXD. Markets have a tendency to turn higher in the few days before and after Memorial day. >>



    SPY today finally closing out a large daily gap from the April 20th jump. DIA had a bit more to go but possibly good enough.

    Nice to see miners, gold, and silver moving up without the S&P for a change. Seems like they were joined at hip for quite some time.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭


    << <i>
    Nice to see miners, gold, and silver moving up without the S&P for a change. Seems like they were joined at hip for quite some time.

    roadrunner >>



    image
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All in AGQ at $196. No more ZSL for me.!

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The bottom is "scheduled" for Thursday (which is typically accurate with a day or so). So I'm looking for a brief dip Thursday to hopefully go long gold futures. I think SP500 may have bottomed Wednesday as well. Otherwise everything's been stuck in a sideways/grinding upward pattern but hopefully it's time for that to end. Either way, the charts are loaded with energy so a move is imminent, and it's looking more and more likely that the move will be UP, rather than down.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As I believe the bottom is in, I am not long gold futures at ~1517 on this morning's dip.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This chart is getting interesting...

    image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Powers to be seem to like to metals on sun night or is it mon night since the holiday?????? be interesting
    Singapore & Hong Kong March/April
    Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
    MACAU
    emgworldwide@gmail.com
    Cell: 512.808.3197
    EMERGING MARKET GROUP
    PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dave, I've been looking to buy China for quite some time now. Looks like a should wait longerimage

    Guess what made an all time high against the dollar today? They are also cleaning the euro.s clock as well

    image
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    June is going to be an exciting month with the end of QE2. Though it looks to me like stocks are ready to rally, the end of QE is a big threat, as well as a dollar that looks like it is ready to rally a bit.

    For now, I think last week's performance for gold looks really good and this week should see more upside for gold - at least until Wed/Thursday. Near term target is $1545 for gold and beyond that, $1578.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dave, I've been looking to buy China for quite some time now.

    Wow, you can afford to buy the country of China? Or do you mean you're in the market for some plates, cups, saucers, that kind of thing?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Dave, I've been looking to buy China for quite some time now.

    Wow, you can afford to buy the country of China? Or do you mean you're in the market for some plates, cups, saucers, that kind of thing? >>



    smart a$$

    image

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've got some stoneware that I'm trying to sell, if anyone's interested.

    Though it looks to me like stocks are ready to rally, the end of QE is a big threat, as well as a dollar that looks like it is ready to rally a bit.

    If QE is ending, is it likely that both stocks and the dollar will rally? Maybe they are ending QE during the slow trading season, when stocks are least likely to notice?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This information was listed at TF's site and was sent to the CFTC. It's been mentioned in years past that nearly all of gold's gains were during overseas trading. 2010
    has been no different. The times below reference the London fix.

    Total trading days 254
    Trading days PM fix over 2% higher than AM fix ZERO
    Trading days PM fix over 1% higher than AM fix 2
    Trading days PM fix either lower, or no higher than $5 211 (83.1%)

    It should be obvious to anybody with a trained eye for sleuthing that something is badly wrong here. I find it incredible that for all of 2010 only TWO out of 254 trading days resulted in a PM fix higher than 1%. There was an 83% chance of either a lower close, or very minimal gain. This is totally consistent with the trading patterns for the first 5 months of 2011. Since the beginning of 2010 gold has rallied 41.5% without a SINGLE PM fix above +2%, and only 7 above 1%. There is an obvious seller who wants ALL Comex trading days capped at 1%. This is illogical from a trading perspective, and defies all fundamentals, technicals, and news-driven events.


    I have to agree.

    roadrunner

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    oh no....not another smoking gun....how can you conspiracy theorists sleep at night...
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That particular gun has been smoking for about 5-7 years.

    How do I sleep? By counting gold sheep.....and figuring I'll have to settle for the steady 15% per year average rate that gold has been going up each year.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • SpoolySpooly Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭


    << <i>oh no....not another smoking gun....how can you conspiracy theorists sleep at night... >>




    You have to admit.... that was funny! image OPA.... you get the Spooly "evil grin" of approval! I love quick... dry wit!
    Si vis pacem, para bellum

    In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    We're not conspiracy theorists.....we're catastrophists! image

    I learned that from derryb's thread. So do I get my tin foil hat now? image

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    June thread started.
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