Silver to fall by 66%... According to Motley Fool
laxmaster92
Posts: 777
I don't take much of what is said by the Motley Fool to heart, but, what is everybody's thoughts?
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I guess they don't own any silver.
I knew it would happen.
In this case their advice is that silver will drop 66%, but it could go to $100 before it drops. What kind of advice is that? Of course things go up and then go down, even my Schnauzer knows that.
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Give me a flippin' break! Where was this guy for the past 10 yrs, or did he miss this entire run up? Toss him into the Prechter camp (ie wrong for years).
Will silver correct at some point? Absolutely. It will probably see a 20-35% correction this July-August. Of course it if makes it to $75 it will still end up around $50.
I figure a probable high in the next 4-6 weeks at $53-$62. Then a summer correction into 2 strong support zones of $31 or $37. The author feels that is the end to silver.
But it will have at least one more blow off leg in this series coming in the fall heading to >$100.
The author is technically correct in that there will be some big paper lossescoming in silver. But they won't be 66%. The 2008 blow-off took silver down about 60%
and that was literally a one-off event just short of Mad Max. His charts don't seem to correlate to anything I'm use to seeing as the 1980 inflation adjusted high is approx $130.
Considering the CPI has gone up 2.5X since 1980, why is it such a stretch for silver and gold to finally play catch up as well? (ie $125 silver, $2187 gold) And that doesn't even
include an overshoot which as we all know tends to happen in commodities. I wonder why this guy is so fixated on the non-inflation adjusted 1980 high of $50? Even without
the Hunts contributing in 1979, I think silver still would have gotten to around $35/oz.
On the flip side, Christopher Barker is one of the founding Motley Fools and he's been bullish on PM' for years. I look forward to reading his views. I guess they have to have
a variety of views readily available.
roadrunner
and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply
for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,
medical coverage and sanity.
Camelot
<< <i>Warning warning Will Robinson. >>
actually it was "Danger! Will Robinson, Danger!" RR now i know i pre-date you.....
for a true picture of appreciation.
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>Warning warning Will Robinson. >>
actually it was "Danger! Will Robinson, Danger!" RR now i know i pre-date you.....
I was a huge LIS fan and watched it every Wendesday night back in the 60's. Think I just typed that too quickly w/o thinking. I was
11 or 12 when it first came on so I might pre-date you. Couldn't get enough of Penny and Judy.
Careful now or I'll wish you into the corn field!
Bear, I think 1,000,000 years BC would be more than adequate. After all, that's when Raquel Welch's (Loana) fair haired surf tribe began marveling at the
wonders of the silvery metal. There was a lot happening back in '65-'66 to keep a 12 yr old occupied. No video games necessary.
roadrunner
As noted above, if the author used $100 as a peak then a 66% retracement seems very possible to $44. To imply that a 66% drop from current levels (to $16) is imminent does indeed sound Foolish.
I knew it would happen.
you are correct - but for exactly that reason (cost to participate) I dont believe silver is ahead of itself at all.
I think we will see 60-75; if it comes fast - sell into it, buy back on the pullback
i've got a 25:1 ratio in my head; gold is moving; my call silver 65 -- gold 1625 (near term high-not peak at all)
And the recent run hasn't been only due to the falling US dollar, it has soared in AUD although not as much because of our rising dollar. Gold on the other hand has been fairly consistent in AUD for a year or two now, our dollar rises whenever gold does. I can't find a gold chart in AUD for the past few years but if anyone knows of one I'd be interested to see it.
<< <i>I wish it would fall 66% right now, I'd get much better stacked than I could afford now.
And the recent run hasn't been only due to the falling US dollar, it has soared in AUD although not as much because of our rising dollar. Gold on the other hand has been fairly consistent in AUD for a year or two now, our dollar rises whenever gold does. I can't find a gold chart in AUD for the past few years but if anyone knows of one I'd be interested to see it. >>
Here's your linky
...
You can see that the last 2 years hasn't been anything spectacular for gold as far as Australia is concerned.
<< <i>What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans
and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply
for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,
medical coverage and sanity. >>
GREAT idea! In addition to nailing a few banksters and their corrupt allies, it would destroy the wealth of 30 million honest citizens, remove the source of 70% of U.S. income tax revenues, encourage anyone with intelligence, ambition and a sense of fairness to leave the country, and turn over a massive amount of our productive resources to the corrupt politicians who were largely responsible for bringing about this economic mess in the first place. Sounds like a winner to me!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
And that is exactly the reason that it won't. There are lots of folks wishing that it would drop so that they can scoop some up.
I knew it would happen.
...
<< <i>What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans
and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply
for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,
medical coverage and sanity. >>
With that comment, Comrade Vladimir Lenin would have been proud of you.
<< <i>
<< <i>What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans
and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply
for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,
medical coverage and sanity. >>
With that comment, Comrade Vladimir Lenin would have been proud of you.
Kill a few million, Comrade Stalin be proud too.
We no need more comrades here.
Comrade Renski
Anyone can pick something that's gone up a lot and say it's gotta drop. Where were they when
gold was $280. They were buying IBM stocks and tech bubbles.
Coffee has gone up nearly as much as silver so I suppose it's gotta fall too.
i've always been partial to brunettes, just ask "Olive Oyl" lol
back to Wings vs Sharks....
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>History will show that after silver pops it will have fallen by at least 66%. History will also show whether or not that top was $49 (something). >>
That could be true. If silver gets to its 1980 inflation adjusted high of $132, then a 66% correction will bring it back to $43. If that move to triple digits does
happen, I would expect that silver will never fall below either $50 or $40 ever again.
roadrunner
A lot of forumites were buying all through the high $30's and $40's. Now that it's on sale (but still possibly correcting) will they be buyers now
that it's even cheaper?
roadrunner
Planned monthly buying is still the way to go in my book.
Hi Ho Silver is way too volatile for me.
<< <i>Well, I only buy phsyical, and I bought two ounces of gold last week, so I'm down $200 this week and I haven't even received my coins.
Planned monthly buying is still the way to go in my book.
Hi Ho Silver is way too volatile for me. >>
Welcome to the club...purchased a set of 2011 "hockey pucks" last week...down $100+ so far for the set. Win some & loose some.
100% Positive BST transactions