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Silver to fall by 66%... According to Motley Fool

I don't take much of what is said by the Motley Fool to heart, but, what is everybody's thoughts?

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  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,304 ✭✭✭✭✭
    They don't say anything about the dollar, and they imply heavily that silver is in a mania stage.

    I guess they don't own any silver.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • JCMhoustonJCMhouston Posts: 5,306 ✭✭✭
    Their name says it all, while I do sometimes read their research I never rely on their investment ideas.

    In this case their advice is that silver will drop 66%, but it could go to $100 before it drops. What kind of advice is that? Of course things go up and then go down, even my Schnauzer knows that.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Warning warning Will Robinson. Another CFA geek expousing Dow large caps over anything else. The real kicker is his examination of the 210 yr history of silver's performance!
    Give me a flippin' break! Where was this guy for the past 10 yrs, or did he miss this entire run up? Toss him into the Prechter camp (ie wrong for years).
    Will silver correct at some point? Absolutely. It will probably see a 20-35% correction this July-August. Of course it if makes it to $75 it will still end up around $50.
    I figure a probable high in the next 4-6 weeks at $53-$62. Then a summer correction into 2 strong support zones of $31 or $37. The author feels that is the end to silver.
    But it will have at least one more blow off leg in this series coming in the fall heading to >$100.

    The author is technically correct in that there will be some big paper lossescoming in silver. But they won't be 66%. The 2008 blow-off took silver down about 60%
    and that was literally a one-off event just short of Mad Max. His charts don't seem to correlate to anything I'm use to seeing as the 1980 inflation adjusted high is approx $130.
    Considering the CPI has gone up 2.5X since 1980, why is it such a stretch for silver and gold to finally play catch up as well? (ie $125 silver, $2187 gold) And that doesn't even
    include an overshoot which as we all know tends to happen in commodities. I wonder why this guy is so fixated on the non-inflation adjusted 1980 high of $50? Even without
    the Hunts contributing in 1979, I think silver still would have gotten to around $35/oz.

    On the flip side, Christopher Barker is one of the founding Motley Fools and he's been bullish on PM' for years. I look forward to reading his views. I guess they have to have
    a variety of views readily available.

    roadrunner





    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BearBear Posts: 18,954 ✭✭
    What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans

    and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply

    for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,

    medical coverage and sanity.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Warning warning Will Robinson. >>



    actually it was "Danger! Will Robinson, Danger!" RR now i know i pre-date you.....

    image
  • BearBear Posts: 18,954 ✭✭
    How about we track the value of silver as it was 200 million years ago

    for a true picture of appreciation.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Warning warning Will Robinson. >>


    actually it was "Danger! Will Robinson, Danger!" RR now i know i pre-date you.....
    image >>



    I was a huge LIS fan and watched it every Wendesday night back in the 60's. Think I just typed that too quickly w/o thinking. I was
    11 or 12 when it first came on so I might pre-date you. Couldn't get enough of Penny and Judy. image
    Careful now or I'll wish you into the corn field!

    Bear, I think 1,000,000 years BC would be more than adequate. After all, that's when Raquel Welch's (Loana) fair haired surf tribe began marveling at the
    wonders of the silvery metal. There was a lot happening back in '65-'66 to keep a 12 yr old occupied. No video games necessary.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Thanks for linking this article. I like the fact that the author junped into the comments section. Takes some guts to do that after such a write up.

    As noted above, if the author used $100 as a peak then a 66% retracement seems very possible to $44. To imply that a 66% drop from current levels (to $16) is imminent does indeed sound Foolish.
  • oil prices has to be playing part of silver being up, oil is now 113. a barrel
    dont send sheep to kill a wolf...
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,304 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think that one of the reasons silver got a bit too far ahead of the other metals is because of its unit cost. Much easier to afford one ounce. Or ten. Or twenty.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Did the fool see the rise of PM's? Did they see the last two big falls in their stock market? Enough said ignore the noise. Where else are you going to put your money right now?
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    jmski

    you are correct - but for exactly that reason (cost to participate) I dont believe silver is ahead of itself at all.

    I think we will see 60-75; if it comes fast - sell into it, buy back on the pullback

    i've got a 25:1 ratio in my head; gold is moving; my call silver 65 -- gold 1625 (near term high-not peak at all)
  • I wish it would fall 66% right now, I'd get much better stacked than I could afford now.

    And the recent run hasn't been only due to the falling US dollar, it has soared in AUD although not as much because of our rising dollar. Gold on the other hand has been fairly consistent in AUD for a year or two now, our dollar rises whenever gold does. I can't find a gold chart in AUD for the past few years but if anyone knows of one I'd be interested to see it.
    Still thinking of what to put in my signature...
  • JoesMaNameJoesMaName Posts: 1,061 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I wish it would fall 66% right now, I'd get much better stacked than I could afford now.

    And the recent run hasn't been only due to the falling US dollar, it has soared in AUD although not as much because of our rising dollar. Gold on the other hand has been fairly consistent in AUD for a year or two now, our dollar rises whenever gold does. I can't find a gold chart in AUD for the past few years but if anyone knows of one I'd be interested to see it. >>



    Here's your linky
    Paul - saved by
    The Fireman...
  • Thank you.
    You can see that the last 2 years hasn't been anything spectacular for gold as far as Australia is concerned.
    Still thinking of what to put in my signature...
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,902 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans

    and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply

    for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,

    medical coverage and sanity. >>


    GREAT idea! In addition to nailing a few banksters and their corrupt allies, it would destroy the wealth of 30 million honest citizens, remove the source of 70% of U.S. income tax revenues, encourage anyone with intelligence, ambition and a sense of fairness to leave the country, and turn over a massive amount of our productive resources to the corrupt politicians who were largely responsible for bringing about this economic mess in the first place. Sounds like a winner to me!

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,304 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wish it would fall 66% right now, I'd get much better stacked than I could afford now.

    And that is exactly the reason that it won't. There are lots of folks wishing that it would drop so that they can scoop some up.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • JoesMaNameJoesMaName Posts: 1,061 ✭✭✭
    Paul - saved by
    The Fireman...
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans

    and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply

    for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,

    medical coverage and sanity. >>



    With that comment, Comrade Vladimir Lenin would have been proud of you.image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>What say we confiscate all the wealth owned by the top 10% of Americans

    and turn it over to pay down the National debt. Then these folks can apply

    for unemployment like the rest of the former working folks that lost their jobs, homes,

    medical coverage and sanity. >>



    With that comment, Comrade Vladimir Lenin would have been proud of you.image >>



    Kill a few million, Comrade Stalin be proud too.

    We no need more comrades here.

    Comrade Renski

    image
  • For those that have sold 7 (7 as in strike not quantity) puts it's a non-starter. image
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,307 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If they had been telling people to buy at $4, $14, or $34 then I might care about their opinion.

    Anyone can pick something that's gone up a lot and say it's gotta drop. Where were they when
    gold was $280. They were buying IBM stocks and tech bubbles.

    Coffee has gone up nearly as much as silver so I suppose it's gotta fall too.
    Tempus fugit.
  • Don't forget cotton CK. image
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    RR of course you knew Angela cartwright was in "The Sound of Music"?...yeah she was a heart-throb of mine, back then, too.

    i've always been partial to brunettes, just ask "Olive Oyl" lol

    back to Wings vs Sharks....
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭
    mmm ....
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 7,891 ✭✭✭✭
    Well it's down close to 20% since it flirted with $50 the other day...Just sayin....only 45% or so till it's down 66%. I rounded a little bitimage
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,550 ✭✭✭✭✭
    History will show that after silver pops it will have fallen by at least 66%. History will also show whether or not that top was $49 (something).
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>History will show that after silver pops it will have fallen by at least 66%. History will also show whether or not that top was $49 (something). >>



    That could be true. If silver gets to its 1980 inflation adjusted high of $132, then a 66% correction will bring it back to $43. If that move to triple digits does
    happen, I would expect that silver will never fall below either $50 or $40 ever again.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭
    We're getting there...image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah. The author is now half right with about a 33% correction already printed. Falling all the way to $16.50 will take some work though.

    A lot of forumites were buying all through the high $30's and $40's. Now that it's on sale (but still possibly correcting) will they be buyers now
    that it's even cheaper?

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • edmundfitzgeraldedmundfitzgerald Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
    Well, I only buy phsyical, and I bought two ounces of gold last week, so I'm down $200 this week and I haven't even received my coins.

    Planned monthly buying is still the way to go in my book.

    Hi Ho Silver is way too volatile for me.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well, I only buy phsyical, and I bought two ounces of gold last week, so I'm down $200 this week and I haven't even received my coins.

    Planned monthly buying is still the way to go in my book.

    Hi Ho Silver is way too volatile for me. >>



    Welcome to the club...purchased a set of 2011 "hockey pucks" last week...down $100+ so far for the set. Win some & loose some.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Early last week i noticed a lot of shorts entering the silver market, I think this margin requirement issue was planned out to break silver.

  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MF talking it down to buy in cheap. They know dollars are turning into monopoly money.
    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
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