Inflation vrs deflation or return of recession or worse

Bear

Sure the cost of imports will go up as well as gas and food. However, with the majority of working people

suffering from a reduced pay check reduced home values as well as high debt load, there isn't a lot of cash

around to chase goods as the prices go up. Even old Henry Ford realized that his employees needed to earn

a living wage so that they could buy the cars that Ford was building. Today, as millions of jobs go overseas,

those lost quality jobs,are not producing income for Americans to buy stuff. I truly do not see a recovery except

for corporations doing the bulk of their business overseas.The average American is about ready to slide into another

deep recession. This down turn for the little people will continue until some dumb SOBs in Washington realize, that

until quality jobs are restored in this country, no true consumer recovery is possible.



The above opinion does not negate the benefits of owning physical PMs to compensate for the falling value of the dollar.

If this Nation suffers the loss of its status as the World Reserve Currency, then we will suffer the same fate as England when

the pound sterling suffered the same loss after 200 years as the premier World Currency. I do not believe that I have ever

witnessed such a plethura of financial problems hitting this Nation, all at the same time. These include:

1. Untenable, unfavorable balance of payments

2. Huge Debt including Federal, State as well as citizen debt.

3. Loss of perhaps 3-5 million quality jobs, that will not be returning.

4. Annual budget that is seriously out of balance

5.A deep negative outlook of the economy by the public

6. The largest disparity of wealth since 1929.

7.Unreasonable corporate welfare, that is reducing needed revenue base

8. Unfunded or underfunded social programs

9. Excessive military commitment world wide. Military spending is the least effective
manner of spending, in which to benefit the economy. Our expenditures for the military/
industrial complex has become the danger that President Eisenhower warned of when he
left office.

10. The declining value of the American Dollar, which is in effect a tax on peoples remaining wealth.

11. Unreasonable and unfair reciprocity in trade agreements, that are flooding our Nation with goods
and is sucking wealth out of the Nation. It has reached a point that one can not buy American made
products, as such manufactors no longer exist in this Nation

derryb

Washington politicians and their hired/appointed thugs don't really want you and I to have a meaningful job. They want to be our great provider. They want to get paid to take money from the few that do have meaningful jobs and give to those that don't. They are in the transfer of wealth business. It's big business for them and it keeps them employed with great benefits. However, they are forgetting that without enough meaningful jobs there will be no income from personal taxes for them to redistribute. Once they can no longer raise taxes on those that do have a meaningful job, they will have worked themselves out of what they consider a meaningful job. At this point the IMF will become our great provider. This is the planned, grand scheme of things. The massive wasting of US money on things like "world peace with the barrel of a gun" were put into place to accelerate the coming financial ruin.

PS. Bear I bought the best honey today at a roadside stand.

Bear

First of all, I love honey. I can eat it right out of the jar. Years ago, I bought some genuine honey comb

and really enjoyed chewing the waxy mess and getting the honey out like a real live fuzzy bear.


Second, the present situation appears to be draining all of the wealth that the middle class has stored

up since the end of WW2. These are assets that will be difficult if not impossible, for our generation to

replace. I find it hard to believe that this situation is due to stupidity. It appears to me that it was planned

for and enacted by the powers that be to achieve just what they have achieved. It is interesting that both

Republican as well as Democratic administrations have destroyed all economic protective clauses, implimented

unbalanced and unfair trade agreements, allowed Corporate welfare to expand in scope as well as economic

dollars. It is almost as if the hidden power structure determines who the nominees will be for both Parties. Thus,

no matter who wins, the power structure gets what it wants at the expense of the people. Think about that for a

moment and the implications are truly frightening.

jmski52

It is almost as if the hidden power structure determines who the nominees will be for both Parties.

This was abundantly clear during the 2004 Republican debates, primaries and presidential election campaign.

derryb

<< <i>It is almost as if the hidden power structure determines who the nominees will be for both Parties. Thus,

no matter who wins, the power structure gets what it wants at the expense of the people. Think about that for a

moment and the implications are truly frightening. >>


They all work for the same puppet masters, only difference is the flavor. Sounds like you need some tin foil. I've got plenty.

Bear

Yes, I find that my tin foil hat is most helpful,

in preventing headaches due to the secret

electromagnetic waves being directed towards me.

storm888

Bear's inventory of problems is really ALL that makes PMs a necessity.


1. Untenable, unfavorable balance of payments.

Other than military hardware, America makes nothing anybody wants.


2. Huge Debt including Federal, State as well as citizen debt.

The "citizens" allowed that entire circumstance


3. Loss of perhaps 3-5 million quality jobs, that will not be returning.

American "workers" priced themselves out of the market. Good riddance.


4. Annual budget that is seriously out of balance.

The "citizens" allowed that to happen, too.


5.A deep negative outlook of the economy by the public.

Good. Maybe the "citizens" are finally understanding what they allowed to happen.


6. The largest disparity of wealth since 1929.

Stealing from me and giving my stuff to the peasants and banksters will not solve that.
In fact, the good producers would never have "retired" at 40 if they were not being deprived
of the proceeds of their production. ALL of the good boomers I know have not turned their
hands for MANY years; they got more than enough and got out.

7.Unreasonable corporate welfare, that is reducing needed revenue base.

The "citizens" allow that to continue.


8. Unfunded or underfunded social programs.

One such program is one too many. "Programs" have destroyed the country.

9. Excessive military commitment world wide. Military spending is the least effective
manner of spending, in which to benefit the economy. Our expenditures for the military/
industrial complex has become the danger that President Eisenhower warned of when he
left office.

The MIC was out of control long before DDE warned against it. It is now ALL that the
USA has left.


10. The declining value of the American Dollar, which is in effect a tax on peoples remaining wealth.

And the poor will lose even that which they have. Savers destroyed, non-producers rewarded,
and we get $100 silver and $5K gold.


11. Unreasonable and unfair reciprocity in trade agreements, that are flooding our Nation with goods
and is sucking wealth out of the Nation. It has reached a point that one cannot buy American made
products, as such manufactors no longer exist in this Nation.

Even lazy and unproductive Americans don't wanna buy overpriced JUNK produced by overpaid
peasants who became too comfortable with the notion that they were "middle class."


The "citizens" delivered us to where we are in the PM game. They
have NO ONE to blame but themselves for the bed they allowed
to be made.

Now, it is every man for himself. And, it is only going to get worse.
Such is life in a country populated by a non-homogeneous band that
shares no qualities other than membership in a powerful expectant class.

Buy Gold. Be Happy. Don't Worry.

Bear

If you believe that the citizens actually control what happens in this country

then you are seriously deluded. The population has been skillfully divided and

carefully misled as to what is in their best interests. We are talking of a very

long term,expensive, disinformation reprogramming of the American Mindset. We as a People

have been manipulated to the point, that we no longer play a meaningful role in our

own governing.Our Government is no longer of the People, by the People and for the

People. The decisions of Government are now dictated by interests other then the People.

storm888

<< <i>....The decisions of Government are now dictated by interests other then the People. >>



/////////////////////////////


I wonder who is to blame for that.

The "citizens" made a series of bad choices over many
decades. Now, they will pay the price.

derryb

<< <i>The "citizens" made a series of bad choices over many
decades. Now, they will pay the price. >>


The citizens don't make the choices. Those actually making the choices do everything they can to make it appear to be the choice of the people. For example, the people get to choose between political candidates. Do you really think there is a meaningfull difference between the candidates? The people were given the "choice" between different flavors of the same shill only so they would think the choice (and the blame) was theirs. The only real choice people need to make is to stand by and accept "elections" as their voice or take to the streets and demand the change they want. The people are actually demanding change in places like Bahrain, Libya and Egypt.

streeter

Such optimism boys.

The FOS thread.

Without googling, let me remind the sky is falling crowd that we make a lot of stuff other people want.
food
biomedical
aircraft
hardware and software
automobiles
aerospace
farm equipment
industrial equipment


We have the largest manufacturing base in the world. We're just not making toasters and TVs anymore. We've farmed a lot of work overseas but a lot is still right here. What we don't have is enough skilled craftsmen and skilled / educated workers. Any skilled person in my field comes up to me, I can make a position for him.

Right now, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON and several other utilities in SoCal are hiring first and second level journeymen through subcontractors and gross weekly is over $5,000 including overtime. MY cousin has been making over $250,000 per year for the last two years with them. SCE has to go to OREGON and WASHINGTON to find people.

Youz people are not in touch.


Oh, and we have TWO THINGS that the rest of the world wants and needs and can't get enough of...our scrap and junk.

The people who are the doom and gloomers stick to buying PM's because it what suits you best. America ain't over yet lads.

Bear

Derry, I am in total agreement with you.

291fifth

<< <i>It is almost as if the hidden power structure determines who the nominees will be for both Parties.

This was abundantly clear during the 2004 Republican debates, primaries and presidential election campaign. >>



I call it the "New Aristocracy." Their power and, especially, wealth, have been growing steadily for the past 30 years. They distract the general public with "family values" issues, but all they are really interested in is preserving and growing their power and wealth.

gsa1fan

"3. Loss of perhaps 3-5 million quality jobs, that will not be returning.

American "workers" priced themselves out of the market. Good riddance."

The American workers were undermined by their gov't to allow American corporations to ship jobs overseas. No one can compete with slave labor. To top it off corporations who chose to sell out America hide the $$ in other country's to avoid taxes.

So we loose 5 million tax paying jobs. American corporations hide the $$ so it can't be taxed. We bail out TBTF. Get the picture?

Who will pay the national debt when we have no one paying taxes.

Moxie

Great post, Bear. I concur wholeheartedly.

Who is John Galt?

gsa1fan

<< <i>Great post, Bear. I concur wholeheartedly.

Who is John Galt? >>



"I swear by my life and my love of it that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine." -- John Galt

Bear

Yes, we still make things, however, we do not make enough things to provide jobs for our

increasing population. We still buy more then we sell. We need to create 150,000 jobs a month just to keep

up with the increase in Americans coming onto the work population. This in no way solves the problem of the

jobs that have gone overseas.

Steve27

We are still number 1 in innovative intellectual property, and that is what we need to protect.

jmski52

Replay the 2008 Republican primary debates and puke. The only 2 candidates who talked any kind of common sense, Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo - were the first ones ignored by the moderator - who was it, John Chancellor? And the media propagated charges against both of those guys that they were racist, etc.

And McCain - that stellar debater and master politician (note, sarcasm) - was scarcely coherent from the moment he was "tapped". Judging from the current list of "front-running" prospects, we can expect gold and silver to continue climbing. Milquetoast empty suits are paraded out as "moderates". Buy metals - it's not over by a long shot.

roadrunner

Right now, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON and several other utilities in SoCal are hiring first and second level journeymen through subcontractors and gross weekly is over $5,000 including overtime. MY cousin has been making over $250,000 per year for the last two years with them. SCE has to go to OREGON and WASHINGTON to find people.

Seems insane. Are these costs then passed to Southern California electrical consumers? If so, just another reason California is out of touch. But not to be outdone, Univ of Connecticut just reported last week that they were paying their campus police chief $255K per year (following a $35K raise in Jan. 2010). The second in command gets $205K/yr. Toss on the retirement benefits, pensions, and perks and I'm sure it's a lot more. The reason given for the high salaries (which exceeds what the NYCity police chief earns) was that it's tough to find good help and keep. I kid you not.

roadrunner
(Conn resident)

pf70collector

eems insane. Are these costs then passed to Southern California electrical consumers? If so, just another reason California is out of touch. But not to be outdone, Univ of Connecticut just reported last week that they were paying their campus police chief $255K per year (following a $35K raise in Jan. 2010). The second in command gets $205K/yr. Toss on the retirement benefits, pensions, and perks and I'm sure it's a lot more. The reason given for the high salaries (which exceeds what the NYCity police chief earns) was that it's tough to find good help and keep. I kid you not.

The 250K salaries seems to be the exception, not the norm. Police chiefs making $250K sounds like mafia takeover of the public sector.

streeter

<< <i>Right now, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON and several other utilities in SoCal are hiring first and second level journeymen through subcontractors and gross weekly is over $5,000 including overtime. MY cousin has been making over $250,000 per year for the last two years with them. SCE has to go to OREGON and WASHINGTON to find people.

Seems insane. Are these costs then passed to Southern California electrical consumers? If so, just another reason California is out of touch. But not to be outdone, Univ of Connecticut just reported last week that they were paying their campus police chief $255K per year (following a $35K raise in Jan. 2010). The second in command gets $205K/yr. Toss on the retirement benefits, pensions, and perks and I'm sure it's a lot more. The reason given for the high salaries (which exceeds what the NYCity police chief earns) was that it's tough to find good help and keep. I kid you not.

roadrunner
(Conn resident) >>



RR,
Vernon, CA.-- city manager ---less than 100 residents----made over $450,000 last year. --PLUS benefits and retirement. BELL, CA.--city manager pulled down over $800,000--but he's in hot water.

We got standards out here

And SCE passes those costs down to rate payers ---about 20cents KWH. We turn the lights off when we leave the room.

The 5k a week is for 6x10hrs. If you want 12 hours x 7, they'll give it to you. Very under staffed out here. Just join the union and get your card. About $80 / hr. base pay for skilled journeymen. My cuz owned a pretty good size truck wrecking yard and when he found out what he could make as an employee, said the hll with owning a business and chasing the carrot. He's working less hours at 6 x 10hr days than when he owned his own business and doesn't have to take the job home. The helicopter guys on the job make twice what he does. The environmentalist whackos hang around the jobsite......if an employee as much as drives over a desert tortoise--that employee can go to jail. For that reason...everybody has a metal lunch box with a lock....turtle soup tonite for dinner.

pmcollectour

U.S. food-price inflation may top the government’s forecast as higher crop, meat, dairy and energy costs lead companies including Nestle SA, McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) and Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI) to boost prices.

Retail-food prices will jump more than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 3 percent to 4 percent this year, said Chad E. Hart, an economist at Iowa State University in Ames. Companies will pass along more of their higher costs through year-end, said Bill Lapp, a former ConAgra Foods Inc. chief economist. The USDA will update its forecast today.

Groceries and restaurant meals rose 2.4 percent in the four months through April, the most to start a year since 1990, government data show. During the period, rice, wheat and milk futures touched the highest levels since 2008, and retail beef reached a record. Yesterday, J.M. Smucker Co. announced an 11 percent price increase for Folgers coffee, the best-selling U.S. brand, after the cost of beans almost doubled in a year.

“It’s going to be a tough year” for U.S. shoppers, said Lapp, who is president of Advanced Economic Solutions, an agriculture consultant in Omaha, Nebraska. “You’re looking at an economy where a lot of consumers are under some serious pressure from food and fuel costs.”

TheBigB

<< <i>Police chiefs making $250K sounds like mafia takeover of the public sector. >>



They have, it's done.

gsa1fan

I talked to a boy at the feed store this morning. He had his 1 ton & goose neck cattle hauler for sale.

He has been in the hauling business for 15 years. He charges a hauling fee from pasture to auction lot.

He told me so many farmers have sold their cattle because of loosing $$ he can not stay in business.

All this will show up @ your local super market I'm guessing in about 6 months.

roadrunner

Bear, in reading your excellent original list again, I would add this as well:

12. $1.1 QUAD in otc derivative bets. These are currently marked to model and kept in a cool, locked storeroom for twice a year inventory.
They have no clue how to do deal with them without tanking the world. 80% of them are interest rate related so raising rates would release
a firestorm. Solution for now is to muddle along and keep adding about $10-20 TRILL per year to the pile to ensure interest rates stay put.
These are what really took down Bear Stearns and Lehman. They'd take down the remaining Too-Big-To-Fail banks as well if the markets were
left on their own. Interest rates at both ends of the curve could not be manipulated for years w/o this new technology. Unfortunately they don't
know how to put the genie back in the bottle.

roadrunner

jmski52

$1.1 QUAD in otc derivative bets. These are currently marked to model and kept in a cool, locked storeroom for twice a year inventory.
They have no clue how to do deal with them without tanking the world. 80% of them are interest rate related so raising rates would release
a firestorm. Solution for now is to muddle along and keep adding about $10-20 TRILL per year to the pile to ensure interest rates stay put.
These are what really took down Bear Stearns and Lehman. They'd take down the remaining Too-Big-To-Fail banks as well if the markets were
left on their own. Interest rates at both ends of the curve could not be manipulated for years w/o this new technology. Unfortunately they don't
know how to put the genie back in the bottle.

Good post, roadrunner. That's the one fact we should all keep on the front burner and it should force us to remember to keep stacking.

There are still the winning counterparties to those bets, and the question is: when will "they" start demanding their payoffs? Are they already being paid off in a trickle of keystroke entries to the national debt that will keep our economy down for a century or two? Only your Fed knows for sure, but I think that the answer is obvious. The Treasury is buying it's own debt. Gimme a break.

This is the deflationary pressure that cohodk continues to point out.

This is also why the dollar is toast now, and it will be but a flake of charcoal crisp in a little while. The only way to stave off the deflationary Depression is to print. Our man in the Fed, Bennie the Printer is a student of the Great Depression, and his seminal philosophy is to dump dollars on top of the problems whenever and whereever they occur. This is also why gold and silver are the only real money that's going to be left when things shake out.

pf70collector

Orange Juice has gone up over 50 cents in just one week. Used to be 2 for $5, then 2 for $6. Now its 2 for $7. And those are the ones on sale that week.

derryb

Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation?

"That is why gold, silver and other hard assets are going to be so good to have in the long-term. In the short-term they will experience wild swings in price, but if you can handle the ride you will be smiling in the end. In the coming years, we are going to experience both inflation and deflation, and neither one will be pleasant at all."

Baley

"So you think that money is the root of all evil? ... Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or the looters who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil? ... Not an ocean of tears nor all the guns in the world can transform those pieces of paper in your wallet into bread you need to survive tomorrow. ... Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values ... Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: 'Account Overdrawn.'"
--Francisco d'Anconia, in Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged

jmski52

"So you think that money is the root of all evil? ... Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or the looters who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil? ... Not an ocean of tears nor all the guns in the world can transform those pieces of paper in your wallet into bread you need to survive tomorrow. ... Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values ... Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: 'Account Overdrawn.'"
--Francisco d'Anconia, in Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged

This is probably my favorite quote.

InYHWHWeTrust

Had to read through a resurrected Bear thread...

So... who said, "Money is the root of all evil?"

jmski52

So... who said, "Money is the root of all evil?"

It's a common mis-quote of the Biblical quote that "love of money is the root of all evil", and I'm a bit embarrased to say that I don't know off-hand who said that.

Mesquite

Paul said; "For the love of money is a root of all sorts of evil, and some by longing for it have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs." NASB 1 Tim. 6:10

BBN

King Solomon even arrived to the point where he had it all and realized that in the end, it brought him no satisfaction. He said that those who want more money never reach a point of satisfaction. Never enough.

OPA

Money has never been the root of all evil...... It's people that are the root of all evil.

Baley

People were created to be loved; things were created to be used

The problem is, too often, things are loved and people are used.

The measure of a man's true wealth is what is left over in his life if all the money and things are taken away

gsa1fan

<< <i>People were created to be loved; things were created to be used

The problem is, too often, things are loved and people are used.

The measure of a man's true wealth is what is left over in his life if all the money and things are taken away >>



So TRUE Stop and smell the Roses once in awhile!

"Hey Mister, where you going in such a hurry
Don't you think it's time you realized
There's a whole lot more to life than work and worry
All the sweetest things in life are free
And they're right before your eyes

You've got to stop and smell the roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't stop and smell the roses along the way

Before you went to work this morning in the city
Well, did you spent some time with your family
Did you kiss your wife and tell her that she's pretty
Did you take your children to your breast and love 'em tenderly

You've got to stop and smell the roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't stop and smell the roses along the way

Well, did you ever take a walk through the forest
Stop and dream a while among the trees
Well, you can look up through the leaves right straight to heaven
And you can almost hear the voice of God in each any every breeze

Well, you've got to stop and smell the roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't stop and smell the roses along the way

Oh, you've got to stop and smell the roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't stop and smell the roses along the way

Said, you've got to stop and smell the roses"

We only go around once~Live life

renman95

Paul's quote answers most of Francisco d'Anconia's questions.

bosco5041

Great song, Mac Davis?

gsa1fan

<< <i>Great song, Mac Davis? >>



Yes