For those selling silver at $50

Justacommeman · April 21, 2011 9:29AM

A number of posters have mentioned that they were sellers at $50.

I would consider selling some now as it's well within 10% of that number and not get too greedy. Instincts tell me selling will be intense near $50 assuming it gets there. Sellers at $50 may encounter a lot of company heading for the exits at the same time. For those waiting to sell at $100 please regard this post. In theory if silver breaks and holds $50 it will be in clean air with zero resistance. Who knows where it goes from there.

MJ

roadrunner · April 21, 2011 9:43AM

Incredible that silver is 71% above the 200 dma while gold is only 12% above the 200 day moving average. The silver miners are 34% >200 dma.
The GSR is actually accelerating downwards now in a parabolic fall.

Would be interesting to know how far above the 200 dma silver got in Jan. 1980. Was just looking at a daily chart of Dec '79 to Jan '80 vs. today and frankly, they
are nearly twins. It's scary. Yikes!

roadrunner

Bayard1908 · April 21, 2011 9:53AM

I think this is reasonable advice for anyone who intends to sell it all at $50.

Conversely, my plan is to gradually scale out after the price exceeds $50. I'll sell 10% or 20% and then reevaluate the situation.

fishcooker · April 21, 2011 9:54AM

Holy smokes, just noticed the $1100 ASE rolls on ebay. How the heck did that happen.

OldEastside · April 21, 2011 10:27AM

I have two numbers in mind, and it's getting closer to the first one,
but the second one is the GSR and it's holding me back, because
it's, doing just as well, so far, theres a lot of varibles.

Steve

percyb · April 21, 2011 11:28AM

<< A number of posters have mentioned that they were sellers at $50.

I would consider selling some now as it's well within 10% of that number and not get too greedy. Instincts tell me selling will be intense near $50 assuming it gets there. Sellers at $50 may encounter a lot of company heading for the exits at the same time. For those waiting to sell at $100 please regard this post. In theory if silver breaks and holds $50 it will be in clean air with zero resistance. Who knows where it goes from there.

MJ >>

Bernake speaks on Wednesday. He may or may not dampen the silver market. I don't see any major change in the market direction myself though. The US life-boat has sunk.

jdimmick · April 21, 2011 11:34AM

Keep in mind the higher we get the more resistance and backing off firms are getting. I am getting ever increasing calls by the day , (not customers) other dealers wanting to move out some 100 oz , bags of 90% and they are having a little more difficult time finding buyers at this level then they were 2 weeks ago.

jmski52 · April 21, 2011 11:39AM

Was just looking at a daily chart of Dec '79 to Jan '80 vs. today and frankly, they
are nearly twins.

I was thinking about that today, because I remember that we started having several consecutive $1.00+ days in silver and then it became news. The dollar amounts are the same, but in relative terms we are not there yet. Looking at the comparison table on Tulving's website, what we are seeing now are comparable to the $0.35 and $0.40 moves back in 1979.

To be fair however, the real market peaked around $35.00 to $40.00 in Jan. '80 and not the one-trade number of $50 that everyone quotes. I remember selling the majority of my position after the crash in the mid to low 30s. I don't see a huge risk in waiting it out.

The thing that I do worry about is - how long will the big boys let this continue before they start pulling strings at the CFTC, or even worse - at a higher level? The Fed is already in a box, so they can't be used to throw a wet towel on this situation by using interest rates like they did in 1980.

The only other way is via regulatory interference. I think that if silver is in a physical shortage situation, this will go viral worldwide and the spike will be bigger proportionately than in 1980. I think that this time, the regulators might lose - and they already know it. That's just me thinking stream of consciousness, fwiw.

Overdate · April 21, 2011 12:40PM

<< Holy smokes, just noticed the $1100 ASE rolls on ebay. How the heck did that happen. >>

Yeah, it's not like physical silver is any better than paper silver.

<< I am getting ever increasing calls by the day , (not customers) other dealers wanting to move out some 100 oz , bags of 90% and they are having a little more difficult time finding buyers at this level then they were 2 weeks ago. >>

Smelters come to mind.

RedHerring · April 21, 2011 1:10PM

I'm waiting for the gold silver ratio to fall to 20. And looks like that might be $1500:$75 at this point!

derryb · April 21, 2011 1:44PM

I recently sold just enough ASEs and collector gold to throw another $20K at AGQ. The last $20K I threw at it two months ago has doubled!

secondrepublic · April 21, 2011 9:19PM

<< Was just looking at a daily chart of Dec '79 to Jan '80 vs. today and frankly, they
are nearly twins.
....
To be fair however, the real market peaked around $35.00 to $40.00 in Jan. '80 and not the one-trade number of $50 that everyone quotes. I remember selling the majority of my position after the crash in the mid to low 30s. I don't see a huge risk in waiting it out. >>

Wouldn't silver need to be trading around $120-$150/ounce to be the same real level, adjusted for inflation?

Wingsrule · April 21, 2011 9:29PM

According to Tulving's website, that number is $132.

Justacommeman · April 22, 2011 2:12AM

What inflation?

MJ

BAJJERFAN · April 22, 2011 2:32AM

<< What inflation?

MJ >>

The inflation that is driving silver prices up?

piecesofme · April 22, 2011 2:53AM

With regards to pm's, my main holdings was 90% silver, some call it junk silver. Unfortunately, (kinda sorta) I sold just about all I had of it in the mid to upper $30's. Do I have any regrets doing so? In hindisght, sure. But living in the past is for cowards and losers. I did very well from what i sold at that time. The $ I got from that is worth less now, but I have been slowly buying .999 Ag now along with my first pm love, 90%.
Maybe that's why I am more hesitant to buy now...because my cost avg. now is more closer to what Spot is than what it was when I was holding nearly $3k face of 90%.
I gotta keep telling myself that because I am from the school of thinking that this run has to take a break at some point, and should move down quite a bit to test what a new bottom is. Who the hell knows what a support level is at this point? So I am a cautious, less volume buyer right now I suppose. Conversely, I'd sell it all again in a heartbeat if I found a buyer that would take it all @ $50/oz. LOL

Justacommeman · April 22, 2011 11:46AM

<< 

<< What inflation?

MJ >>

The inflation that is driving silver prices up? >>

I was being facetious of course. There's not a good emotion icon for that. I'm not a huge fan of the winkie guy and use him sparingly. MJ

BAJJERFAN · April 22, 2011 12:07PM

<< 

<< 

<< What inflation?

MJ >>

The inflation that is driving silver prices up? >>

I was being facetious of course. There's not a good emotion icon for that. I'm not a huge fan of the winkie guy and use him sparingly. MJ >>

They don't have an emoticon for stirrin chit either do they?

Justacommeman · April 22, 2011 1:27PM

You da man my friend...............MJ

1970SilverArt · April 22, 2011 9:36PM

I think that it would make sense for people to sell some of their silver NOW when it is $46.68 (Kitco quote ONLY) before it gets smacked down because I do not see silver hitting $50 in 2011 despite the fact that it is getting closer to $50. What I see happening is that it will go up to mid $48's to possibly $49 and then it will get smacked down possibly to the lows that we saw earlier this year. This is just my gut feeling speaking to me and I do not have anything to back up my gut feeling.

jmski52 · April 22, 2011 11:38PM

I think that silver is a good thing to have right now. The fact that it's been going up somewhat irrationally (i.e., faster than gold) doesn't mean that it's time to sell. It would be time to sell if Congress enacted Paul Ryan's budget.

BAJJERFAN · April 22, 2011 11:41PM

<< I think that it would make sense for people to sell some of their silver NOW when it is $46.68 (Kitco quote ONLY) before it gets smacked down because I do not see silver hitting $50 in 2011 despite the fact that it is getting closer to $50. What I see happening is that it will go up to mid $48's to possibly $49 and then it will get smacked down possibly to the lows that we saw earlier this year. This is just my gut feeling speaking to me and I do not have anything to back up my gut feeling. >>

I expect it is purely psychological. Certain price points meet resistance. I remember selling an ounce of gold and afterwards the price dropped $100. It took a long time to crack $1500, but now that is in the past and $1600 is the future. I imagine you will see the same thing as it approaches $1600. There is a reason that stores price stuff at $99.95 instead of $100 even tho they are essentially the same.

CaptHenway · April 24, 2011 11:48PM

<< A number of posters have mentioned that they were sellers at $50.

I would consider selling some now as it's well within 10% of that number and not get too greedy. Instincts tell me selling will be intense near $50 assuming it gets there. Sellers at $50 may encounter a lot of company heading for the exits at the same time. For those waiting to sell at $100 please regard this post. In theory if silver breaks and holds $50 it will be in clean air with zero resistance. Who knows where it goes from there.

MJ >>

Once again, The Man was RIGHT!!!!!!!

TD

yellowkid · April 25, 2011 3:07AM

<< What inflation?

MJ >>

percyb · April 25, 2011 8:00AM

<< I think that silver is a good thing to have right now. The fact that it's been going up somewhat irrationally (i.e., faster than gold) doesn't mean that it's time to sell. It would be time to sell if Congress enacted Paul Ryan's budget. >>

I wouldn't be a seller either. Why bother? It's going much much higher. Those who sell have to pay taxes on their profits...
I'd hang on for the long haul. Silver has a long long way to go. My city, county, and state are bankrupt (Chicgo, Cook, Illinois). Our country is bankrupt (USA). Things are getting worse, not better.

Justacommeman · April 25, 2011 11:02AM

Tom,

They really threw the kitchen sink and half the fridge at silver when it was breathing on $50. Violent was what I expected and i wasn't disappointed. I was watching it in real time on a one minute chart and it was on.I think a lot of longs became shorts on the doorstop of $50.............MJ

CaptHenway · April 25, 2011 12:58PM

I was sitting on KITCO clicking REFRESH every ten seconds watching the spurt......

Your call made perfect sense. I just think it surprised everybody by about three days.

Weiss · April 25, 2011 1:10PM

It was a beautiful call. Your stock's up 20 points in after hours trading, Justacommeman!

streeter · April 25, 2011 1:12PM

Anymore of these calls and Kitco will be linking THIS site.

Justacommeman · April 25, 2011 1:16PM

<< Your stock's up 20 points in after hours trading, Justacommeman!

>>

sell, sell, sell! MJ

RedTiger · December 4, 2011 12:49PM

Another old thread I thought worth bringing up.

OPA · December 5, 2011 1:12AM

Unfortunately....I did not sell enough....should have unloaded more .... I think it will be years before we see $50 silver again. On the other hand, I've been wrong almost as much as percyb's crystal ball.

pf70collector · December 5, 2011 3:06AM

I sold some at $42 and gold at $1900.

jmski52 · December 5, 2011 6:15AM

Market timing is a great thing when you are riding the wave. I sold 300 oz last Feb. around $34-$35, but it was for a good cause. I've added back since then, and I don't feel inclined to sell at $50 if it goes up that far.

The only time I'll lighten up is if the fundamentals start to change. Sitting tight is a regular decision that I have to make. Never fail to reconsider.

cohodk · December 5, 2011 6:20AM

fundamentals start to change

By the time we realize the fundamentals have changed, the price will already be 40% or more lower.

TWQG · December 7, 2011 4:00AM

This call was right on the money.
I was selling as many ASE rolls as I could for $1010 around this time.
That reminds me, I need to renew my subscription to MJ's early email blast.

GBurger717 · December 7, 2011 9:01AM

With what they are doing to the margins can it make it to 50.00 again?

Solo · December 7, 2011 11:14PM

First things first, brilliant advice MJ

...

Interesting thread. I sold my ASE's the day after Apmex sent a blast e-mail to everyone offering $3 over spot for ASE's. Silver was roughly $42/3ish at the time (IIRC) so I jumped on it. I then made a GSR trade out of silver that weekend and into gold and remember regretting it for about a week as prices continued to rise. However it wasn't more than a week or so later when the bottom fell out so I honestly feel incredibly lucky as I'm not a shrewd market timer by any means. Honestly had Apmex not sent that e-mail I probably would have waited for $50 and missed the peak of the year. Thanks Apmex

!

Baley · June 25, 2013 6:18AM

<< fundamentals start to change

By the time we realize the fundamentals have changed, the price will already be 40% or more lower. >>

indeed

jmski52 · June 25, 2013 10:47AM

And I haven't sold, with every intention of adding to the stack.

BTW, Baley - why the obsession with 12 old threads when you could do with 1 or 2? What's your point?

And MJ - that really was a pretty good call!

nibanny · June 25, 2013 10:54AM

<< 
And MJ - that really was a pretty good call!

>>

Btw, what happened to TMIMITW?! Still into Yoga?!

Baley · June 25, 2013 12:21PM

There's some really interesting analysis in all of those old threads I bumped, interesting both in their original context and with the benefit of hindsight.

Some folks spent many minutes typing hundreds of words, it's kind of a shame to have them never get read again

mariner67 · June 25, 2013 1:19PM

"And MJ - that really was a pretty good call! "

I still miss MJ and his posts.
Work I guess?
Best!

For those selling silver at $50

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