1 day guess, call it a hunch. Ag turning corner today.
piecesofme
Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
I usually don't get up this early. It is 7:44 AM as I post this. For you predictors out there, I am going to say that Ag is going to finish between $44-44.50 today. There has to be a reason I can't fall back asleep after seeing my child off to school like normal. lol Let's see what happens.
To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
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Time to lighten the stack, take some profits, and buy back @ $35 in June.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>I usually don't get up this early. It is 7:44 AM as I post this. For you predictors out there, I am going to say that Ag is going to finish between $44-44.50 today. There has to be a reason I can't fall back asleep after seeing my child off to school like normal. lol Let's see what happens. >>
All I can say...you're a
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Time to lighten the stack, take some profits, and buy back @ $35 in June. >>
i am leaning in this direction, too.
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<< <i>Time to lighten the stack, take some profits, and buy back @ $35 in June. >>
i am leaning in this direction, too. >>
Our debt situation is going to be on the news 24/7 over the next few months. There could always be a pull back but my guess is that we will trend higher. If enough people wake up, there could be a good deal of new money coming into PMs and the miners.
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<< <i>Time to lighten the stack, take some profits, and buy back @ $35 in June. >>
i am leaning in this direction, too. >>
Our debt situation is going to be on the news 24/7 over the next few months. There could always be a pull back but my guess is that we will trend higher. If enough people wake up, there could be a good deal of new money coming into PMs and the miners. >>
i agrre but it seems that whatever GS says the USA/government/Fed follows. a brief respite from QE is the calm between the storm, IMHO.
word , agriculture.
Camelot
<< <i>What is Ag? >>
Chemical symbol for silver. It is the abreviation for argentium which is latin for silver.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
to try the bonus question?
Camelot
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
A lot of mines are being reopened that couldn't produce it at the lower price. There are a tremendous amount of mines in the SoCAL desert and AZ. Pretty soon, those mine owners will really like to guarantee their profits at above production cost. In MOJAVE, L.A. county..there is a road called SILVER QUEEN RD. Drive down it and look at the activity.
The lag time between A) when the decision is made to reopen the mine and
silver started to take off...when...???....last NOV.---- 6 months ago.....that's how long it takes to reopen a mine......determining production capabilities can't be far behind.
SILVER is a business. An industrial metal. It cost 10 bucks to mine an OZ. Remember that as you think of it as a speculation metal on it's way to a hundred bucks as it tries to catch up with gold.
Just sayin.....be careful and look at both sides before you blindly increase the stack because of our national debt or derivative mess. Those have very little to do with mining silver. The reason silver supplies are down(partly) is because silver used to be assoc with gold as a by product. It is a by product when it's $5/OZ. That's why very little was delivered into the marketplace. BUT...it stands tall at $40/OZ. A lot of silver is in land fills. At $50/OZ.......you can reclaim it.
$10/OZ is in this country. It's a lot cheaper to get it in Peru. And a lot fewer environmental restrictions there.
EOM
See how ridiculous it is to make all these wild predictions that seem to be running rampant here?
btw, I've been sleeping the last 4.5 hours
10% in a day could've happened, but we all realistically know that even if it dropped 10%, we still have pretty damn high values.
get it? good, i'm glad you do. This concludes this lesson in self control.
Wow you mean pieces wasnt giving us inside information? No matter by june $45 an oz. may be cheap.My favorite online PM firm is already selling ASE s at that price or higher.
<< <i>Wow you mean pieces wasnt giving us inside information? No matter by june $45 an oz. may be cheap.My favorite online PM firm is already selling ASE s at that price or higher. >>
Not if you buy 500 or more
<< <i>For you guys who have dreams of AG at night......I hope you know the relationship between the price of the metal and the cost to mine it.
A lot of mines are being reopened that couldn't produce it at the lower price. There are a tremendous amount of mines in the SoCAL desert and AZ. Pretty soon, those mine owners will really like to guarantee their profits at above production cost. In MOJAVE, L.A. county..there is a road called SILVER QUEEN RD. Drive down it and look at the activity.
The lag time between A) when the decision is made to reopen the mine and
silver started to take off...when...???....last NOV.---- 6 months ago.....that's how long it takes to reopen a mine......determining production capabilities can't be far behind.
SILVER is a business. An industrial metal. It cost 10 bucks to mine an OZ. Remember that as you think of it as a speculation metal on it's way to a hundred bucks as it tries to catch up with gold.
Just sayin.....be careful and look at both sides before you blindly increase the stack because of our national debt or derivative mess. Those have very little to do with mining silver. The reason silver supplies are down(partly) is because silver used to be assoc with gold as a by product. It is a by product when it's $5/OZ. That's why very little was delivered into the marketplace. BUT...it stands tall at $40/OZ. A lot of silver is in land fills. At $50/OZ.......you can reclaim it.
$10/OZ is in this country. It's a lot cheaper to get it in Peru. And a lot fewer environmental restrictions there.
EOM >>
So what? It cost 37 cents to make a toothbrush that sells for $4.99. A brand new car has MAYBE $10,000 worth of materials/labor in it, yet sells for double. A 20oz fountain drink is $1.59 at burgerking.....but the cost of the syrup/water/cup/ice is less than a quarter. A U.S. $100 bill costs the government 6 cents to produce, yet it has the purchasing power of 1,600x that amount. Shall I go on, or do you get the point yet?
<< <i>$10/OZ is in this country. >>
Re: Silver mining cost. Oil costs $10/barrel to get out of the ground and sells for $100+/barrel. Does this mean silver's going to $100/oz?
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<< <i>What is Ag? >>
Chemical symbol for silver. It is the abreviation for argentium which is latin for silver. >>
Aha. Is that the one on the Perioic Chart??
<< <i>Aha. Is that the one on the Perioic Chart?? >>
Indeed. I like using Pt also.
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<< <i>$10/OZ is in this country. >>
Re: Silver mining cost. Oil costs $10/barrel to get out of the ground and sells for $100+/barrel. Does this mean silver's going to $100/oz?
Thats exactly right. Streeter's commentary really has no relevance to anything. Almost ANYTHING a person can buy cost FAR less to produce than what the market brings on that object. So whats his point???
At $20/ozt silver, it may not be worth the effort. At $40, it may be.
<< <i>For you guys who have dreams of AG at night......I hope you know the relationship between the price of the metal and the cost to mine it.
A lot of mines are being reopened that couldn't produce it at the lower price. There are a tremendous amount of mines in the SoCAL desert and AZ. Pretty soon, those mine owners will really like to guarantee their profits at above production cost. In MOJAVE, L.A. county..there is a road called SILVER QUEEN RD. Drive down it and look at the activity.
The lag time between A) when the decision is made to reopen the mine and
silver started to take off...when...???....last NOV.---- 6 months ago.....that's how long it takes to reopen a mine......determining production capabilities can't be far behind.
SILVER is a business. An industrial metal. It cost 10 bucks to mine an OZ. Remember that as you think of it as a speculation metal on it's way to a hundred bucks as it tries to catch up with gold.
Just sayin.....be careful and look at both sides before you blindly increase the stack because of our national debt or derivative mess. Those have very little to do with mining silver. The reason silver supplies are down(partly) is because silver used to be assoc with gold as a by product. It is a by product when it's $5/OZ. That's why very little was delivered into the marketplace. BUT...it stands tall at $40/OZ. A lot of silver is in land fills. At $50/OZ.......you can reclaim it.
$10/OZ is in this country. It's a lot cheaper to get it in Peru. And a lot fewer environmental restrictions there. EOM >>
Mineshafts can't be reopened quickly unless there is already a permit in place. They do expire or conditions have since changed. Permitting is only getting tougher. And even in the US the subject of more heavily taxing miners has already surfaced...even in mining friendly Nevada. They tax where the money is and this will slow down the entire mining process. In foreign nations like Chile, Peru, Bolivia, and Australia there has already been talk of sharply increasing sovereign royalty fees. It will happen. Since you mentioned Peru, they are one of the leading copper and silver miners in the world. If you hadn't noticed they have already shutdown Southern Copper's proposed new project due to protest by the people. In last Sunday's initial Peru presidential election the frontrunner so far is a leftist who has said he will tax the miners and break international agreements if needed to bring more money to the Peruvian people. Needless to say the Peruvian markets and miners have been in a tailspin for months fearing this possibility. This guy hung tight with Chavez in previous years. Peru is getting to be bad for the mining business and silver exports will suffer. Once govt gets involved in mining, the downward spiral begins. Look at Chavez in Venezuela and miner Crystallex. China is mining for gold and silver furiously and anything they find in-house will stay there. I think that kind of mind-process will continue to get legs around the world. Mining may have been friendly and easier 5 yrs ago...but much less so today. As the sovereign debt crisis matures over the next several years nations will be an irresistable urge to take profits from their miners to help feed their people. Not the ideal environment to coax foreign companies to come in and look for new resources or even keep on mining current ones. Peru's leading national mining company, Buenaventura, just recently settled a strike by workers at their largest silver producing mine. Unfortunately the local townspeople didn't let the workers return to work as they are still unhappy with the company for various reasons. So this mine that produces 7 MILL oz per year silver is still shutdown.
Finding a decent ore grade in abandoned mines is a chore. A number of juniors are using this model but I don't see many yet being profitable. Their hope is that a senior silver comes in and takes over their new "mine." It takes a lot longer than 6 months to define the asset to current Canadian National Instrument 43-101 standards. Usually that process takes years. Digging thousands of 300-500 meter holes takes time. And with only a couple of rigs running that's real money that has to borrowed. And if there were an interesting deposit it's unlikely it just would have been given away for a song. It costs tens of $millions to properly redefine a resource, even if it was a profitable producer decades ago. Assuming they get a loan or find a joint venture backer, the infrastructure has to be brought to modern standards, including the processing plant. For example, Comstock Mining (LODE) is developing resources in the area of the old Comstock mine. But they've been at it a few years with negligible production. But they do appear to have some potential deposits. So maybe a better number for reinitiating old mines is more like 2-3 yrs. This assumes your mine won't be nationalized in places like Bolivia, Venezuela, Chile, China, Columbia, Peru, Argentina, South Africa, Turkey, Congo, Ivory Coast, etc. Too many possibilities to mention.
If not formally nationalized, miners can be taxed or environmentally permitted into unprofitability. And if that doesn't get them, then insurgents or drug lords just might. Mexico is prime country for numerous silver miners...and many drug lords as well. And if all that doesn't put a lid on new silver mines then there is the rising cost of oil, supplies, labor, and electricity. The cost of mining has been going up sharply the last few years and that keeps mining stock prices subdued. I keep looking at recent quarterly reports and the miners consistently come out with bad reports where production is down or they were unprofitable for the quarter due to currency swaps, derivatives, downtime, strikes, wars, etc. Even with gold at $1400+ it's amazing to see so many miners not having great quarters and great years. It's a sign of how difficult things really are in the business. Miners actually do better during times of non-inflation when materials and supplies are cheap. It's a high cost business that is not easy even if they are mining money. Even with silver in a 9 yr bull market the world mined production has not increased all that much during this time. At current prices the silver entire industry is on the order of $40 BILL/yr....about the size of Nike or Colgate-Palmolive. Even with the high prices in the 1970's it took 5 yrs after the metals peaked in price before mining production peaked....5 yrs too late by the way. It shouldn't be too much different this time around. The fact that mining infrastructure was basically left to rot in the 1990's as the gold/silver carry trades ran amock, has meant that for quite a while mining has been lagging the metals. The last real miner boom was from 2001-2006, too many have been floundering since the great deleveraging.
roadrunner
For silver to be "turning a corner today" wouldn't the price have to had been going down from a higher level for several days or weeks? My Chessie woke me up this morning with her big nose, and I didn't even think about silver until I caught up with the chatter in the "mega puck thread" in Coin Forum. Then, I broke down and bought some more "pucks".
If I buy enough of them, silver will drop down to about $25.00 and stay there for a year. Otherwise, we are still heading higher.
I knew it would happen.
This run is bordering on madness. So many new buyers stepping in because the word has gotten out. All CNBC would ever mention was Gold when they were doing a segment on Metals. Now, Silver has the headline and top billing.
I don't know where this run will finally start to top out, but it sure is fun being along for the ride to this point, although I must say I have cut back buying in any significant allotment at these levels. All I'm doing is raising my cost avg. more than I care to if I buy too much. Little here & there on a dip, which hasn't happened much lately lol.
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<< <i>$10/OZ is in this country. >>
Re: Silver mining cost. Oil costs $10/barrel to get out of the ground and sells for $100+/barrel. Does this mean silver's going to $100/oz?
Thats exactly right. Streeter's commentary really has no relevance to anything. Almost ANYTHING a person can buy cost FAR less to produce than what the market brings on that object. So whats his point??? >>
Not true mr gecko.
A few years ago I bought silver at far less than $10/oz and I bought a fair amount of gold at considerably less than it cost to produce it. I make it a PRACTICE of buying assets at less than replacement cost. It is a fundamental understanding of knowing how to invest and knowing how to determine time to sell.
Better to exit a year early than a day late. Because I exit early, I can sleep with no interuption. Silver may climb to the moon, just as the DJ was supposed to reach 35,000 and tract homes were going to be your credit card of the future. Believe what you want if it suits you. If you think it's fool hardy to exit early, wait til you get to experience a late exit event.
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<< <i>
<< <i>$10/OZ is in this country. >>
Re: Silver mining cost. Oil costs $10/barrel to get out of the ground and sells for $100+/barrel. Does this mean silver's going to $100/oz?
Thats exactly right. Streeter's commentary really has no relevance to anything. Almost ANYTHING a person can buy cost FAR less to produce than what the market brings on that object. So whats his point??? >>
Not true mr gecko.
A few years ago I bought silver at far less than $10/oz and I bought a fair amount of gold at considerably less than it cost to produce it. I make it a PRACTICE of buying assets at less than replacement cost. It is a fundamental understanding of knowing how to invest and knowing how to determine time to sell.
Better to exit a year early than a day late. Because I exit early, I can sleep with no interuption. Silver may climb to the moon, just as the DJ was supposed to reach 35,000 and tract homes were going to be your credit card of the future. Believe what you want if it suits you. If you think it's fool hardy to exit early, wait til you get to experience a late exit event. >>
Do you feel that its fair to compare stocks or RE with silver and gold? I understand the process of asset bubbles, and the frenzy in which people get caught up in. However, stocks and homes were never meant to be used as currency.....silver and gold have been THE currency for the vast majority of the past 5,000 years. The quick rise of PMs is a direct result of the quick rise of the U.S. national debt, and the even quicker rise of the number of USDs being produced. Its not your typical asset bubble in which prices are rising dramatically with no fundamentals behind it. That being said, my only fear is that the rise in silver's price is primarily being fueled by paper contracts in which actual silver does not even exist. If we were to take away ALL forms of paper silver......and strictly deal with physical on every single sale.....I do wonder if the jump in value would have been as quick. I tend to think not unfortunately.
Unfortunately, I have to work today and probably won't be able to respond until much later.
<<Do you feel that its fair to compare stocks or RE with silver and gold? I understand the process of asset bubbles, and the frenzy in which people get caught up in. However, stocks and homes were never meant to be used as currency.....silver and gold have been THE currency for the vast majority of the past 5,000 years. The quick rise of PMs is a direct result of the quick rise of the U.S. national debt, and the even quicker rise of the number of USDs being produced. Its not your typical asset bubble in which prices are rising dramatically with no fundamentals behind it. That being said, my only fear is that the rise in silver's price is primarily being fueled by paper contracts in which actual silver does not even exist. If we were to take away ALL forms of paper silver......and strictly deal with physical on every single sale.....I do wonder if the jump in value would have been as quick. I tend to think not unfortunately>>
Silver is a great vehicle for small incremental purchases by 'investors' and is suited for being set up for the next bust. It has great qualities for this --at this point---as it 'should' have corrected but hasn't. The 'investors' are being emboldened more with each rise and no correction. That's scary from my investing perspective. I need my sleep.
The dollar is being devalued quicker than most realize and silver is a great hedge for this. But you can't use silver rounds to purchase milk and bread...yet. It may be money, I haven't figured out yet how to get Southern CAL Edison to take it.
My viewpoint is just mine, I have no hesitation to admit that I am not much for technical analysis, although I am certainly able should I approach investing from a techical standpoint. Over the years I have watched so many smucks and hucksters use charts, graphs and technical analysis to promote and sell whatever they were pushing that my eyes glaze over when I see this approach.
I rely on intuition backed with some research. For every position one could take in life, one could make a case for that position or the opposite ---it's just a matter of how much weight you give the evidence.
I enjoyed quite a run up with my little stash and my liquid position was way over weighted with silver---I needed to par it down. That decision had nothing to do with the technical qualities of silver. It had to do with me getting trapped with an out of balance portfolio earlier in life and paying dearly for that mistake.
I am still enjoying the rise, just with a lot less. I think that common collector coins will EXPLODE in price if some of the bullion profits make their way into coins. Common coins, not rarities.
Last week, I bought an AU seated quarter with uninterupted 160 year old toning and a 65 rattler common walker for......$9. In Franklins. I hope to be able to do that every week for the next year.
I'd rather be a year early than a day late. I've been a day late and it's painful. The trick in a bull market is knowing when to thin the herd. When you divest one asset, you move to others.
I don't get much enjoyment out of owning bullion. My owning it did --and does--allow me transfer some profits and to buy land and coins a lot cheaper than I would have been able to had I missed the run.
For me, it was time. For you, it may not be time. Best of luck.
Yogi Berra