Ok.....thats it!
gecko109
Posts: 8,231 ✭
For everyone here who is "so sure" that silver is due for a big downward correction......my question is why are you on a forum instead of at your local dealer selling every oz you own?
Anyone who says things like....."I expect silver to be below $25 by July 4th", or......."I expect silver to correct to $10/oz".......should not own a single oz of silver today at $41.
If you DO own silver right now at $41/oz and predict a big downward correction.......then you either are simply spewing BS that you yourself dont even believe, or you are not too smart for hanging onto an asset that you are so sure will fall bigtime.
Talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than. Go on and take your profits...sit on the cash....and try to get back in at $25. When silver hits $60...then $80....then $100, you will have yourself a nice sob story about how you sold too early!
Anyone who says things like....."I expect silver to be below $25 by July 4th", or......."I expect silver to correct to $10/oz".......should not own a single oz of silver today at $41.
If you DO own silver right now at $41/oz and predict a big downward correction.......then you either are simply spewing BS that you yourself dont even believe, or you are not too smart for hanging onto an asset that you are so sure will fall bigtime.
Talk is cheap. Actions speak louder than. Go on and take your profits...sit on the cash....and try to get back in at $25. When silver hits $60...then $80....then $100, you will have yourself a nice sob story about how you sold too early!
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Comments
I have a nice pile of silver and I intend to quietly add more.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
A pullback to $35 later this spring could happen too, the weak hands might start trembling.
<< <i>Let's not do anything hasty. The trend is higher for sure and nobody knows what's going to happen - $50/oz within a year looks like a given.
A pullback to $35 later this spring could happen too, the weak hands might start trembling.
A well liked, and well respected forum member recently posted that he "expects silver to correct back to $10/oz". Doesnt that make him a fool if he holds onto his current stash of silver at today's price? Either a fool, or a hypocrite. You choose.
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's not do anything hasty. The trend is higher for sure and nobody knows what's going to happen - $50/oz within a year looks like a given.
A pullback to $35 later this spring could happen too, the weak hands might start trembling.
A well liked, and well respected forum member recently posted that he "expects silver to correct back to $10/oz". Doesnt that make him a fool if he holds onto his current stash of silver at today's price? Either a fool, or a hypocrite. You choose. >>
I have done this also! The reason I did it is I am a unlucky person! I figure if I say the price is going down it ends up skyrocketing up instead! LOL (OOPS! I shouldnt have said that!)
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
Finally, he may be quite comfortable holding silver valued at $10 an ounce vs. greenbacks at any price.
--Severian the Lame
you're referring to Weiss.
maybe it's simply that he's a realistic long term asset allocator, not a market timer.
Gecko, with all due respect, your world view seems very black and white and binary, without subtlety nor the concept of spectra vs. binary choices
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
How do you know that these people who are expecting a downturn don't have some type of hedge in place? Perhaps they have some aversion to generating taxable events that may or may not be 'worth' it to them.
Just because they may think something may happen three months from now doesn't necessarily mean they have to sell today. Or tomorrow. Or next week.
<< <i>It doesn't make him a fool if he's holding PMs as insurance against other investments. Nor does it make him a fool if he bought anywhere near $10 an ounce to begin with. He didn't indicate with what degree of certainty he was expecting a major correction, or more importantly, how long such a correction may last. He may also be expecting to increase his holdings on the next major decline. Further, his horizon for silver holding may be measured in years or decades vs. weeks or months.
Finally, he may be quite comfortable holding silver valued at $10 an ounce vs. greenbacks at any price. >>
" He may also be expecting to increase his holdings on the next major decline."
And there is no better way to do that than sell high and buy back low. Its just baffling to me that someone holds a commodity.......expects it to lose 75% of its current value.....yet continues to hold that commodity rather than liquidate it. To me, that means either you HONESTLY dont believe it will lose 75% of its value, and you just say such thinks for "shock value".....OR, you are simply a fool who is ok with losing 75% of your money.
For someone to state that silver MIGHT correct to $10/oz is a whole different concept from someone saying they EXPECT the same correction. The cautious person who thinks it might correct is justified in holding......the callous person who expects such a correction has zero justification in holding.......of course unless he doesnt truly believe in what he is "expecting" that is.
<< <i>Talk about spewing BS...
How do you know that these people who are expecting a downturn don't have some type of hedge in place? Perhaps they have some aversion to generating taxable events that may or may not be 'worth' it to them.
Just because they may think something may happen three months from now doesn't necessarily mean they have to sell today. Or tomorrow. Or next week. >>
Hold on a second. I didnt publicly state that I EXPECT silver to lose 75% of its current value. Someone else did. And if that person truly believes what he stated, then tax implications or not, he should be selling everything he owns.....then wait for that 75% correction, and get back in an basically triple his holdings.
If on the other hand, he simply thinks that silver might lose 75% of its current value, then all bets are off as far as the next correct move for him. But to "expect" something to happen...and not act on that expectation is quite foolish indeed....you dont agree?
<< <i>Using a corollary to the OP's statements, if one believes that silver will hit $60, $80, or $100, then one should be mortgaging everything they own so they can tell everyone in the future how they just nailed it. >>
And for the past 36 months, the overwhelming portion of my discretionary income has gone into buying silver. I nailed it.
This looks like a statement to me.
<< <i>When silver hits $60...then $80....then $100,
This looks like a statement to me. >>
It can be definitively stated that at some point an ounce of silver will reach $100 USD. That is simply a guaranteed fact......its going to happen, for sure....but when is the question.
Its not a guaranteed fact that silver will ever hit $10 USD again. That is simply an opinion.....valid or not thats all it is...an opinion.
For 3 years I have literally put my money where my mouth was and have bought silver from $9.50 all the way up to $36...and everywhere in between. If I felt that silver was due for a correction...and I even EXPECTED it to hit $10, I would sell every single oz of it....no question. But I dont expect that to happen....it might....but I dont EXPECT it.
I do expect silver to hit $100/oz.....but since I dont know when that will be.....or how long that will take....I need to consider other investment opportunities. I never claimed that silver will be the greatest investment.....and provide the highest ROI for my money. It may not be....it probably wont be.
My contention is that if you EXPECT an asset that you hold will lose 75% of its value....then why are you still holding that asset? Can you answer this please?
you made a great call, and you're way up. . and you're absolutely positive it will continue indefinitely, that this is just the beginning. you're giddy, man
that's a sign
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
In USD terms everything tangible is good in my book. I want physical, not paper whether it's at $20, $40, or $60.
I think some of us, including myself to some degree, are getting a little too carried away with this prediction stuff. God bless you if you have thought from the beginning of this run, which I'll say was about $8/10 oz for Ag, that it would have a run like this. You have been very handsomely rewarded. For those of us who try to use realism when trying to determine a direction, live with what you decided because there's no going back. No sense in beating yourself up over it.
<< <i>there you go with the "expect" again. no one says "expect" it to go way down, they just say maybe.
you made a great call, and you're way up. . and you're absolutely positive it will continue indefinitely, that this is just the beginning. you're giddy, man
that's a sign
Actually the word "expect" WAS in fact used. Is it possible that silver sees $10 again? Yeah....just as its possible that my kid becomes POTUS someday. I understand that it could tank, but I dont expect it to.
I didn't make such a statement so I am unable to address your question.
By the same token, I was willing to put in writing on this forum that silver would hit xx in a given (immediate-term) time frame. I did it twice in fact. I am wavering as to try for a three-peat. My belief is that it will begin heading down very soon. I have not been able to get a handle on how far or how fast.
If it were to drop $10 an ounce over some period of time, life would go on and I wouldn't necessarily make any adjustments. I would still be ahead of the game. But I have recently taken some silver profits off the table. I also sold some back in the early $20s. No regrets.
I am not selling. I am hoarding at this point I think.
At $75 I will sell some, not all.
After that, I am just watching with a smile.
I think $40+ is the new norm.
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
There are any number of reasons why a person predicting a $10 drop wouldn't sell. [I think Gecko misread $10 drop as a $30 drop to $10--big difference.] They may be slow moving cautious people by nature. There are only a couple of successful nimble traders here. Most are not, and almost all forumites would fail if they attempted it. Another reason might be that a person may expect a drop, and is accumulating cash to buy on the drop--absolutely nothing wrong with that. A person may expect a drop, but doesn't do anything, because they don't own any silver for trading purposes and don't go short. Again, quite valid reasons. Who tries to time each and every hiccup in prices? Even if a drop does come, trying to time price and time exactly right is an incredibly low percentage play.
Besides, the BS cuts both ways. So many predicting rocketing silver prices don't do anything about that either. Again, there are any number of valid reasons for that too. Not everyone is a river boat gambler, or all-in, all-out plungers.
Again, I'll repeat, predictions are mostly for entertainment. Don't take them seriously, and don't take yourself too seriously. I don't know why, but this forum seems to be becoming an increasingly rude, crude and angry place, as metals prices head ever higher. I would think this forum would be happy town as folks see their metals go up in price. Instead of happy town, folks seem to be taking themselves far too seriously, and have shorter and shorter tempers.
I'm also expecting a possible big correction as uncertainty of further QE approaches and will trade accordingly as we get closer and know more. If I see sell signals then, I will liquidate all paper, build the cash, and buy back in when the dust settles.
No question about a long term bull trend, but I do like to foresee and take advantage of the ups and downs to increase my holdings. This is the advantage of paper.
Besides, Gecko will let me know when it's time to sell.
More practical would be a "I Made the Trade" thread where sellers (and buyers) of 25% or more of their holdings confirm they HAVE made the actual trade. I'm more interested in knowing who has put their money where there mouth is.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I'll agree that talk is cheap and I'll add predictions are for entertainment.
There are any number of reasons why a person predicting a $10 drop wouldn't sell. [I think Gecko misread $10 drop as a $30 drop to $10--big difference.] They may be slow moving cautious people by nature. There are only a couple of successful nimble traders here. Most are not, and almost all forumites would fail if they attempted it. Another reason might be that a person may expect a drop, and is accumulating cash to buy on the drop--absolutely nothing wrong with that. A person may expect a drop, but doesn't do anything, because they don't own any silver for trading purposes and don't go short. Again, quite valid reasons. Who tries to time each and every hiccup in prices? Even if a drop does come, trying to time price and time exactly right is an incredibly low percentage play.
Besides, the BS cuts both ways. So many predicting rocketing silver prices don't do anything about that either. Again, there are any number of valid reasons for that too. Not everyone is a river boat gambler, or all-in, all-out plungers.
Again, I'll repeat, predictions are mostly for entertainment. Don't take them seriously, and don't take yourself too seriously. I don't know why, but this forum seems to be becoming an increasingly rude, crude and angry place, as metals prices head ever higher. I would think this forum would be happy town as folks see their metals go up in price. Instead of happy town, folks seem to be taking themselves far too seriously, and have shorter and shorter tempers. >>
Could it be that the radioactive fallout from Japan is affecting everyone?
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Again, I'll repeat, predictions are mostly for entertainment. Don't take them seriously, and don't take yourself too seriously. I don't know why, but this forum seems to be becoming an increasingly rude, crude and angry place, as metals prices head ever higher. I would think this forum would be happy town as folks see their metals go up in price. Instead of happy town, folks seem to be taking themselves far too seriously, and have shorter and shorter tempers >>
Those that bought in cheap are happy, a few of those that didn't seem to not be happy with those that did.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
or Nelson/Bunkie Hunt.
The higher it goes, the smarter a person is.
Must be wonderful to smell them tulips before they wilt.
<< <i>interesting how a person can be smarter than Warren Buffet
or Nelson/Bunkie Hunt.
The higher it goes, the smarter a person is.
Must be wonderful to smell them tulips before they wilt. >>
Whats really interesting is how your post makes absolutely no sense. Buffet sold too early, and later admitted it, and the Hunt's were forced out. So, yeah.....anyone who bought at $10-$20 and has held onto it all IS "smarter" than either Buffet or the Hunt's.......according to your idiotic implication of "smart" that is.
they never set a sell target. Anticipating ever higher prices, most seem content to ride
the roller coaster up and then down. I suppose If one buys into the disaster scenario
of hyper inflation, then stack em and hold em could actually be correct. I for one am not
really sure such a scenario will play out, but one never really knows about what the
future may hold in store.
Camelot
<< <i>The problem as I see it, from Forum members is that no matter how high PMs may go,
they never set a sell target. Anticipating ever higher prices, most seem content to ride
the roller coaster up and then down. I suppose If one buys into the disaster scenario
of hyper inflation, then stack em and hold em could actually be correct. I for one am not
really sure such a scenario will play out, but one never really knows about what the
future may hold in store.
I'll hold the hard stack until I'm convinced the price has stabilized which will mean the dollars decline has stablized. I have a hard stack because I don't want that money sitting in dollars. On the other hand, my paper stack is speculation money that is subject to trade at any moment.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If you think something is going to go down a lot, and you have a better use for the money, go ahead and sell it. The question is, what are you going to do with the money? The last of my wife's CD's just matured, and the bank offered me 1% if I transfer it to my name and lock in for 2 years. I said put it into the money market, and the next time I'm at the casino I'll put it all on RED. I wasn't entirely kidding.
TD
P.S.: I was serious about the chill part.
I think you perhaps need to grow up a little, if you can't handle someone disagreeing with your own pet investment theories perhaps you should not be let loose on the WWW.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>Ah, the master of the investing world speaks. If you are the master, why are you on this forum instead of laying on the beach in Bermuda enjoying the spoils of unlimited investment wisdom?
I think you perhaps need to grow up a little, if you can't handle someone disagreeing with your own pet investment theories perhaps you should not be let loose on the WWW. >>
Let's keep personal attacks out of the debate and off the forum. If you have a problem with a member take it up with him/her via private message.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
future to turn out a certain way, life has a way of intruding into ones most fastidious
and well thought out views of the future. If it were possible to be sure of the future,
then all of us would be millionaires.You pace your bets and takes your chances.
Camelot
HH
I sure didn't expect it when I bought a green monster box with silver at $21.00. But I also didn't stop buying after it dropped. My reasons for buying didn't change, but the $9.00 to $12.00 range made it easier to keep buying a roll at a time.
The problem as I see it, from Forum members is that no matter how high PMs may go,
they never set a sell target. Anticipating ever higher prices, most seem content to ride
the roller coaster up and then down.
Honestly Bear, that's pretty close to what I've been doing lately. The main problem for me is that I don't have any better alternatives that don't give me anxiety and heartburn. So, metals it is! At least I know that the stuff is real and not just a keystroke or a paper note.
I knew it would happen.
That's why I don't have a plan. I just keep buying silver!
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Gecko, with all due respect, your world view seems very black and white and binary, without subtlety nor the concept of spectra vs. binary choices >>
What are you saying in regular english? Jeeze Baley. You talk like you should be running for office.
<< <i>Interesting that some get so giddy about doubling or tripling their investment, almost like they have never experienced it before. There are other ways to make the same money, were are not the only ones with the only way with the only idea------------BigE >>
Silver from $5 to $40 is alot greater than doubling or tripling your money. And that would make anybody giddy.
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting that some get so giddy about doubling or tripling their investment, almost like they have never experienced it before. There are other ways to make the same money, were are not the only ones with the only way with the only idea------------BigE >>
Silver from $5 to $40 is alot greater than doubling or tripling your money. And that would make anybody giddy.
A grand point fivecents!
I purchased my first silver round, a beat up Maple, in October 2001. I still have it. I paid just over $4. Should I sell now? Take profit? Does it matter?
Miles
I knew it would happen.
So would the IRS.
No one here is probably any smarter than Warren Buffet when it comes to silver. The guy was getting into it from 1996 when it wasn't yet fashionable. He accumulated a 120 MILL oz
position that very few people knew about. He'd still have it if the FEDs hadn't "suggested" he find more "patriotic" uses for his money. The fundamentals in 2006 were far better than they were in 2001-2003. Any one who could read a TA chart could have figured out where silver was ultimately headed from in 2006. The fact that Buffet decided to "get out" just when thinks were ramping up made zero sense from an individual standpoint. But the the last thing the PTB's needed was their capitalism poster boy quadrupling up on his silver investment while the world was going through crisis. Now that wouldn't have looked good for the dollar, treasuries, or stocks. I'm sure he has some personal silver put away in his own personal bunker, wherever that may be.
roadrunner
<< <i>Interesting that some get so giddy about doubling or tripling their investment, almost like they have never experienced it before. There are other ways to make the same money, were are not the only ones with the only way with the only idea------------BigE >>
That's true but I can't think of any other investment that could possibly have been as much fun . . .
I too have been buying/roll mining this stuff for about 10 years now & still get a thrill when I add a new coin/round/bar to the stack. Hell, I sometimes get chills just looking at Metal Porn Fridays!
YESSIR . . . Silver & Gold still makes me giddy ! ! !
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting that some get so giddy about doubling or tripling their investment, almost like they have never experienced it before. There are other ways to make the same money, were are not the only ones with the only way with the only idea------------BigE >>
Silver from $5 to $40 is alot greater than doubling or tripling your money. And that would make anybody giddy.
A grand point fivecents!
I purchased my first silver round, a beat up Maple, in October 2001. I still have it. I paid just over $4. Should I sell now? Take profit? Does it matter?
Miles >>
.........and I got my first silver dollar for a dollar, back in 1970
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting that some get so giddy about doubling or tripling their investment, almost like they have never experienced it before. There are other ways to make the same money, were are not the only ones with the only way with the only idea------------BigE >>
Silver from $5 to $40 is alot greater than doubling or tripling your money. And that would make anybody giddy.
A grand point fivecents!
I purchased my first silver round, a beat up Maple, in October 2001. I still have it. I paid just over $4. Should I sell now? Take profit? Does it matter?
Miles >>
.........and I got my first silver dollar for a dollar, back in 1970
You dont have to rub it in!!!!