Breaking even?
CaptHenway
Posts: 32,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
A comment from my old dealer-to-dealer network this morning:
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"A guy hauled in 6 comex 1000 oz bars this morning. Said
he was taking this opportunity to fonally, break even.
Showed me his receipt for January 17, 1980. I think
that was the date on it. "
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"A guy hauled in 6 comex 1000 oz bars this morning. Said
he was taking this opportunity to fonally, break even.
Showed me his receipt for January 17, 1980. I think
that was the date on it. "
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
0
Comments
Please visit my website Millcitynumismatics.com
<< <i>Break even? Not even close. >>
Absolutely true!
But that is how many people think.
<< <i>makes one wonder how many doorstops will come in if/when the +$50 make is reached? >>
Excellent question, but remember that very few people bought at that interday $50 top. It's people like this guy who bought in just before the blowoff, in the upper $30's, who are ready to "break even."
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>how long will it take late-to-the-party buyers at today's prices to "break even" some day in the future?
I am not late to the party, but wish I had your crystal ball.
<< <i>how long will it take late-to-the-party buyers at today's prices to "break even" some day in the future?
////////////////////////////
Today, just as in 1980, average/ordinary folks are buying metals
that they do not really understand.
Some of those folks will get trapped, but the trap will not be sprung at
the current price levels.
Ordinary folks very likely still have plenty of room to get in/out profitably.
(By deep into 2012, that opportunity could vanish.)
.................
I am still absolutely convinced that a "Mortgage Protection and Equalization
Act" will be implemented concurrently with any officially recognized/declared
dollar devaluation.
That means ordinary/average folks will have the same chance to win the
"free house lottery" that they had in 1980. Some will capitalize on that
chance, some will not; just like 1980.
<< <i>
<< <i>how long will it take late-to-the-party buyers at today's prices to "break even" some day in the future?
////////////////////////////
Today, just as in 1980, average/ordinary folks are buying metals
that they do not really understand.
Some of those folks will get trapped, but the trap will not be sprung at
the current price levels.
Ordinary folks very likely still have plenty of room to get in/out profitably.
(By deep into 2012, that opportunity could vanish.)
.................
I am still absolutely convinced that a "Mortgage Protection and Equalization
Act" will be implemented concurrently with any officially recognized/declared
dollar devaluation.
That means ordinary/average folks will have the same chance to win the
"free house lottery" that they had in 1980. Some will capitalize on that
chance, some will not; just like 1980. >>
"I am still absolutely convinced that a "Mortgage Protection and Equalization
Act" will be implemented concurrently with any officially recognized/declared
dollar devaluation."
But isnt this the ENTIRE reasoning behind the idea that a bank will collect as much as 3x the original amount of money over a 30 year loan? The ammoritization tables already take into account inflation....thats a well defined RISK that a bank takes when making a long term loan. Now you think there will be even more "protection" for those making the loans? What would happen if all 100 million Americans with a current mortgage simply stopped paying....all at the same time? If any such new law is enacted to further supplement the big banks stranglehold on the economy as a whole, I will CERTAINLY default on my mortgage. I'd rather live in a cardboard box than have my bank play those types of games.
<< <i>how long will it take late-to-the-party buyers at today's prices to "break even" some day in the future?
Among current silver holders this guy was probably 1 in a 100....or even 1 in 1000. Unfortunately, had he decided to hold on
for a few more years, he'd be looking at tripling or quadrupling up. He's kicked himself in the butt for 30 yrs for ever buying silver.
Now, he can kick himself in the butt for not hanging in there for the parabolic blow-off top down the road in 2012-2016.
Interesting how the concept of him being "even" is so easily dismissed by some (ie inflation effects). And I can understand that.
Yet, when the idea of silver having to reach $125+ to account for 30 yrs of inflation effects in order to make a new high....they scoff at that too while
remaining fixated on the 1980 high in 1980 dollars. You just can't win sometimes.
Anyone buying silver in the 1970's was fine even if they bought into November 1979. The final move only took a couple of months. It was still only $6/oz in Jan. 1979.
Unfortunately this guy bought within a week of the blowoff top. So unless we're now within 1-2 months of solving the financial crisis and witnessing an economic rebirth, then
silver isn't close to being "over."
roadrunner
<< <i>isn't that what death is for? >>
Death is just nature's way of telling you to slow down......
That's a heckofalot of $$$ to sit on for 30 years and not make a dime. That was even more of a heckofalot of $$$ back in '80.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
And then, there's inflation
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
roadrunner
//////////////////
I know it is hard to grasp for almost ALL modern-day humans,
but shelter is higher on the "must have" scale than food is. A
threat to move into a cardboard box is fun - and I certainly am
a BIG supporter of "strategic default" - but most Americans would
only survive a VERY short time "on the street," in the midst of
savage chaos.
"Strategic Default" is designed to make the mortgagor better off;
not to put him in a cardboard box.
.............
The notion that ammortization rips can save the banksters and
other lenders is totally incorrect.
The plan of the gangsters and their govt to own virtually all of
the real property BEFORE a currency devaluation is meeting
with obstacles that will certainly thwart the scheme. A MPEA
will be the only solution and the govt will oblige.
...............
When the "system" described below is no longer funded, the
banksters will have no choice but to demand a MPEA.
Folks wondering why they cannot get their mortgage lenders
to "modify" their docs need to understand that there is NO
incentive for lenders to make such modifications. ONLY the
devaluation of the currency AND the collapse of government
"guarantees" would create that incentive.
How does the current SCAM work, and who pays for it?
Here is an example of the SCAM that makes it imperative
that folks who can afford to do so become mortgage-free
before the music stops. Using substantial metal profits
to accomplish that goal is worthwhile.
IndyMac Bank was seized by the FDIC in July 2008.
Assets of IndyMac were sold to OneWestBank by the FDIC in March 2009.
Goldman-Sachs and Soros own OneWest.
First mortgages were purchased at 70% of face.
HELOC's were purchased at 58% of face.
The FDIC will cover between 80% and 95% of any future paper losses.
In the event of a short sale or foreclosure, the loss is calculated using
the ORIGINAL Loan Balance amount ... NOT the amount OneWest paid
for the loan.
Fun Example:
Loan amount of $478,000 + 6 mos missed payments,
for a total of $485,200
OneWest paid $334,600 ($478,000 x 70%) for the loan.
The underwater homeowner has a net cash offer for short sale $241,000
to OneWest.
Under the FDIC formula, you don't consider the amount OneWest paid $334,600. . .
INSTEAD take the ORIGINAL AMOUNT PLUS MISSED PAYMENTS $485,200 and
subtract the short sale offer of $241,000 which leaves you with an
"Adjusted Loss" to OneWestBank of -$244,200.
Next, the FDIC writes a check to OneWest for 80% of the net loss.
In this example, OneWest gets a check from the FDIC for $195,360.
Add that $195,360 from the FDIC to the $241,000 cash offer for the short
sale, and OneWestBank just collected $436,360 on a loan that OneWest
bought for only $334,600. And all OneWest had to do, was sell it for whatever
amount they wanted to.
OneWest made a profit of $101,760.00.
The reason it is so difficult to get the banks to grant a loan modification
is that there is too much money to be made in foreclosures and short sales
with these FDIC insured sweetheart deals.
Footnote: Shortly after the OneWest deal, the FDIC announced it needed to
borrow more money from the Treasury to complete the transaction. The US
taxpayers will pay that bill.
......................
The banksters would need to foreclose on FAR more than the current 1-MILLION+
mortgages each year, in order to protect themselves. They simply cannot get it
done fast enough to protect themselves. Thus, the MPEA will be used to "reset"
mortgages and drastically reduce the "value" of metal profits.
Spending those profits to payoff a mortgage BEFORE any currency devaluation
accomplishes several things:
1. The value of the PM-profits is maximized against mortgage debt.
2. The free-and-clear property immediately becomes a cash producing asset.
(The previous mortgage payment will now go directly into your own pocket.)
3. Peace of mind. With banksters out of the mix, all you have to worry about
is keeping local and municipal govts from taxing you into a cardboard box.
...................................
NONE of the above is a "sell" call.
It is just a call to plan an exit strategy BEFORE your PM-profits are wiped-out
by the banksters and their govt.
The opportunity to pay back expensive debt with cheap dollars will ONLY last
until the govt's only chance to save the banksters is to invoke a MPEA. That
time could be close or far; I dunno which, but it is better to be a little early
than one day too late.
.
"Just got a call on (6) 1000 bars. Wanted us to match the
majors and didn't want to wait 3 weeks for the loot. And didn't
wanna pay the shipping either. Little do those folks know the
P.O. won't take anything over 70 lbs and if you use UPS they wanna
know what is in the cartons (presume Fex Exp is the same).
Told them to sell to Apmex or some of the others.
And..of course they tell us they are all paying spot.
Turned them down natch.
And yep, supposedly took delivery from one of the exchanges and they
don't do that for free either. "
At $39.50, 6,000 ounces comes to $237,000. Good luck getting immediate funds on that!
mortgages each year, in order to protect themselves. They simply cannot get it
done fast enough to protect themselves. Thus, the MPEA will be used to "reset"
mortgages and drastically reduce the "value" of metal profits.
With an MPEA there would have to be an Income Protection Equalization
Act also.
I wonder if the this could be argued in the Supreme Court. Would you not be essentially rewriting Established Contract Laws and setting dangerous precedents? There would be no more faith in any kind of legal document that can be changed by the whim of Congress. Are government is set up with checks and balances.
Box of 20
Now we're going to see how high the refineries can ramp up production as the spread widens between 999 and other forms.