Wow, PMs are on fire. I'm inclined to say that the run is due for a pullback, perhaps a 38.2% retracement, but I don't know, it just seems to keep going... I'm just going to enjoy the ride and try to ride-out any little pullback. Another dollar up on Thursday? Sounds like we are on a course for $50. Would love it if we could ride there before a big pullback.
Targets for silver are at $47.40, and 48.00. Target for gold is at 1509 (achieved tonight), 1519, 1529, and 1581.
Weather11 - I've been going a bit tighter on the times and spreads (May and June) since silver started going parabolic. a 42/48 June SLV strangle weighted 2-1 on the downside should be a nice play here.
Wow, gold and silver are on fire. This move has gone so long that I have to believe a 38.2% pullback is coming next week. Silver has had 7 green daily candles in a row. The last stretch was 8. 38.2% of the last 7 days brings it back to $44.15. For weekly candles, silver's last stretch was 7 weekly green candles, and just closed our 5th. But it seems to be clear in silver that TA is out the window for now. And it's moves are not being matched by gold really at all. The tough part right here is going to be calling the temporary top. Based on the last few days I'm inclined to say silver has the power to achieve 50 or just under 50... perhaps like gold's first attempt at 1000.
Many are calling for gold to correct down to the low 1480's, which is reasonable, and if it's going to happen it's probably next week. Altough Bernanke's going to speek after the FOMC meeting, and it could cause fireworks. Perhaps an announcement of QE3, which I believe I had called for to happen in April a few months ago. McLellane predicts a bottom in gold on Tuesday with a top on May 9.
Overall though, it appears that we're in the middle of a big bull move in PMs and stocks to last into mid-June. Stocks are expected to see some turbulence in mid-May, and then go on to new highs in June before the rally ends.
One interesting thing I read in a newsletter: As the metals keep rolling along, silver is stealing the spotlight rising over 3% today alone. Both gold and silver are up for the day, ahead of the 3 day weekend. The simple fact that there was no profit taking today means that no one wants to sit "naked" over a 3 day weekend as ANYTHING can happen.
Silver targets are 47.40 and 48.00. Gold targets are 1530 and 1580.
Xiphos has some nice charts today. But I particularly like the green background monthly silver chart 7 charts down from the top of the page. Netflix chart very instructive as well.
This gives a better view of the move over the past few months in relation to the past 20 yrs. The IH&S/cup formation from 2008-2010 accurately predicted the jump to $30. Then the half way pattern (flag) neatly formed at $28-$31 (starting from $15 in Jan. 2010) that identified the point where silver was 50% of the way to the target. The half way flag at around $30 (from $15) also predicted the level we are currently at with the move basically complete as far as price objective goes. Note that the current nearly vertical leg is the 3rd leg of Major 3....typically the most bullish leg of an entire longer term bull run. From an Elliot Wave perspective it should all come as no surprise. Silver is currently in the minor 3rd leg of that 3 of 3 sequence. Bullish to the 3rd degree! 3 of 3 of 3. Ironic that silver was called "cooked" by some just as it finished it's first leg up of the bullish 3rd wave (1 of 3 of 3). It was just starting to simmer. 2 of 3 of 3 took it back down to $26 for only a brief time. This current sequence should end on 5 of 3 of 3 by June.
Major Leg one in silver ended at $21 in 3/2008 Then Major Leg two bottoms at $8-$9 in 10/2008
Major Leg three still in progress and working on its 3rd and most impressive leg - but now in the process of completing intermediate 3rd move up from the $26 low in January 2011. A small correction should ensue during intermed. leg 4, then silver will complete it's last intermed. move up during leg 5 in May/June to an ATH....probably $50+. The summer should give time to complete the 4th leg of Major Leg 3 bringing silver back into the lower 40's or even into the 30's. There will be $30 or so of upside that needs to be corrected. Worst case is a full blown retreat to the $20 neckline that was never retested. But in very bullish markets that doesn't always occur. When gold broke out above it's multi-year neckline in 2009 it never went back and retested the $1000 neckline. It never got lower than $1044. If anything silver was in a more bullish stance than gold when it broke above it's $20 neckline. So the pull back to $26 in January might have been the "retest." Sometime in the fall silver's Major Leg 5 will commence which should take it >$100.
<< <i>PC, gold's rise from $800 or so looks like the orderly rise of a monetary standard based on a growing recognition of "something". >>
If we remove the machinations of 2008, which were really 1-off events as the derivatives mess came to a head, then gold's rise has been quite orderly all the way back to around $300-$400/oz. Very orderly indeed. Now what's silver's problem?
Silver RSI on hourly and daily basis is 88+ and 89+ as of 9:42 EDT. It is also touching the uptrend line connecting the tops since Jan. I nibbled on SLV puts although there could be a little more upside as silver has dropped a buck from overnight highs already and may want to retouch those levels during a more active market.
Tuesday and Wednesday are very susceptible days for the PM's. Nice set up following 7 days up for gold and silver. A +$132 gold move is ripe for a 2-4% gold correction. If gentile Ben comes out confirms QE3 on Wednesday, well then things will take off. But I doubt we'll see that. If metals get hit but the SM continues to moving up, the miners might actually hold it together....but probably not. Monday and even possibly Tuesday am could see metals still up, but a hit is almost unavoidable short of some fresh world news that overrides everything again. HUI has retested the 585-590 line once again but now just sitting on top of it at 595. A 2% pullback in gold would send HUI back to around 570-575 again. But it seems that the bulls want to tag that 1521 angel on Mon or Tues before correcting. A head fake breakout of the HUI just above 600 would fall right into that plan. So far touching $1519+ and $49.80 fits right into the plan to suck in some fresh newbs before the next 2 days. The only bullish thing other than the charts pointing upward is a heavy POMO day today.
Options expiration in the metals Tuesday-Wednesday TBond auction week Tu-Thurs FMOC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday
But POMO is then off the table until Thursday/Friday. The metals are due for a brief pause. The next 2-3 days gives that perfect opportunity. It will also allow the Morgue to buy back a few more silver shorts so they don't have to deliver as much physical metal come next week. There were close to 50,000 contracts still left to deal with as of Thursday's close. Just as I finish writing this gold already back to within $1 of closing last night's gap $1506. Silver should follow.
Silver dropped about 7% from early morning highs. I covered 1/2 my meager put position. RSI indicator worked again. SLV on pace for record volume. ZSL has already traded 20% above record volume. Volatility is gonna pick up. We should see more 5% daily moves (up and down) over the next few weeks. Finally, a trading market.
On the heels of a CME silver margin increase today:
Silver now into 4th wave correction in the current wave pattern that began on March 15th. Once this wave 4 completes over several days to a week, it will be on to wave 5 which will take it to a new all time high somewhere in the $54-$62 range by late May or early June. The wave 2 correction that occured in March lasted 6 days and was a relatively flattish ABC. This one will probably last no longer but will be steeper. I think $44.75 makes sense for a bottom as a slightly ascending neckline from the mid-April cup hits multiple key resistance and support points. But a flatter neckline from that cup leaves $43-$43.50 as the hard resistance point where things went parabolic.
The two previous up legs ran $11 and $17 respectively. The last one should be something inbetween such as $14-$15. I see $57-$59.XX as a reasonable topping point to toy with the $60 level.
I think McLellan's low predicted for Tuesday is probably already in or about to be in. It's amazing how good those projections are, if only they were more specific than just "a low" or "a high." I'd like to believe the low is in for silver, but the next level of support is 43.303 and gold hasn't hit a 38.2% retracement yet. So there could be a little bit more downside left, but we're mostly there.
Although I wouldn't rule out a whipsaw move down before or right after the FOMC press conference. I fully anticipate that meeting to announce QE3, although I bet they won't call it that...
BEIJING - The central bank is planning new investment funds to diversify holdings in the nation's $3 trillion foreign exchange reserves, to hedge against depreciation and inflation risks, according to a news report.
The proposed funds will invest some of the foreign reserves in energy and precious metal markets, the New Century Weekly said on Monday, citing unnamed sources close to the People's Bank of China.
<< <i>Silver RSI on hourly and daily basis is 88+ and 89+ as of 9:42 EDT. It is also touching the uptrend line connecting the tops since Jan. I nibbled on SLV puts although there could be a little more upside as silver has dropped a buck from overnight highs already and may want to retouch those levels during a more active market. >>
Silver did indeed try to retest the morning highs. I bought back position of SLV puts and added some ZSL just before 1pm yest. Sold 1/2 ZSL and all SLV puts at the open this morn.
So far this is almost scripted. As I stated a week or so ago, the best time to make a top (whether short or long term, who cares) is on a Sunday night. This was a perfect setup with this past Sunday being a holiday and metals markets closed in Europe the following Monday.
Also RSI's pushing 90 on the daily and hourly charts was a layup. Just wish I had greater intestinal fortitude.
Interesting change in the dynamics of the metals. Now gold is making the moves higher while silver is maintaining and consolidating and being pulled up by gold. The McLellan bottom I posted a few posts back appears to have been accurate within about a day. Comex futures margins were increased again which appears to have been a bit of a drag on silver as well. But to be fair, silver does need to consolidate and take a break. But as far as cycles go, we should be good in gold and silver through May 9. SP500, gold, and silver should have a great week next week.
Target are mid-54's for silver, 1580's for gold, and about 1450 for SP500.
Singapore & Hong Kong March/April Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838 MACAU emgworldwide@gmail.com Cell: 512.808.3197 EMERGING MARKET GROUP PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
Gold appears to be in an acceleration phase right now. Silver fighting the first delivery day notice today. Will probably not be able to get any traction until next week. Gold's turn to go parabolic in a 3rd wave upwards.
From TF's blog today on the strange silver vs. gold trading action.
Friday, April 29, 2011 - Just When You Think You've Seen It All You get days like today...
Never mind that I told you this morning that silver would be capped all day. Never mind that I warned you last night that The Wicked Witch would be stalking the pit like a mythical beast. Never mind that I told you yesterday that gold was going to be leading silver for a while. Today was truly breathtaking it it's peculiarity.
I've been around a long time and maybe my memory is starting to fail. (Wouldn't surprise me. It's always been said that alcohol abuse damages brain cells.) I cannot recall ever seeing such a disconnect between silver and gold on a day session. Ever. Oh, sure, maybe silver might be up or down 3% while gold only moves 1% but at least they'd be moving in tandem. To have the two totally and completely trade independent of each other is absolutely extraordinary. Here are your two charts to consider. They are both 5-minute pictures of today's action.
So, what does this mean? Is it just an aberration? A coincidence? No freaking way, my friends. Everything...and I mean everything...is being done to temporarily restrain silver. The Cartel is effectively expending their entire "conventional" arsenal in their attempt to survive May settlement in silver and live to play another day. Think about it, this week we've seen:
1) Two CME margin increases in 48 hours. 2) Every available Disinformation Agent has been put forth to convince the sheep that silver has topped. 3) Sell side analysts stubbornly refusing to raise or even maintain year end price estimates. Remember, year end estimates are critical to the calculation of miner share price forecasts. 4) Today's historic price divergence. 5) And now, on the Globex, on a Friday no less, The EE is putting the hammer down in an attempt to gin up ever more top-calling over the weekend. Since closing on the Comex at about 48.60, silver is now down 80 cents, the majority of which has come in three minutes.
Anyway, the good news is that The Cartel has been successful. Weak-handed longs have been frightened. They've run from silver and charged into gold, instead. This is great news! I'm long a bunch of June 1550 gold calls so I made a lot of money today. Thanks, Blythe!! Its also great news because we needed The Comex to survive May. The fundos haven't changed. In fact, they've only gotten worse. Remember the Scotia story? June will be another crazy, wild month in the silver pit and we will have a remarkable opportunity to make a boatload of money. In the words of The Wicked Witch herself, "Ruprecht, IF Turd Ferguson is correct, we'll make enough money to BUY Venezuela"!
And, regarding this "topcalling nonsense". Since when has any market topped while everyone was telling you to sell. I'll tell you when...NEVER! Markets "top" when the last buyer has bought...when there is no fear and no perception of risk. Is that today's silver market? Hardly! The fact that so many idiots are trying to convince you to sell your silver is simply a sign that silver will trade even higher. "Climbing the wall of worry", as they say.
So, relax and be happy. Go into the weekend KNOWING that you are WINNING. Gold is at $1562/ounce, for the love of pete! Rejoice! TF out
Comments
Targets for silver are at $47.40, and 48.00.
Target for gold is at 1509 (achieved tonight), 1519, 1529, and 1581.
Many are calling for gold to correct down to the low 1480's, which is reasonable, and if it's going to happen it's probably next week. Altough Bernanke's going to speek after the FOMC meeting, and it could cause fireworks. Perhaps an announcement of QE3, which I believe I had called for to happen in April a few months ago. McLellane predicts a bottom in gold on Tuesday with a top on May 9.
Overall though, it appears that we're in the middle of a big bull move in PMs and stocks to last into mid-June. Stocks are expected to see some turbulence in mid-May, and then go on to new highs in June before the rally ends.
One interesting thing I read in a newsletter:
As the metals keep rolling along, silver is stealing the spotlight rising over 3% today alone. Both gold and silver are up for the day, ahead of the 3 day weekend. The simple fact that there was no profit taking today means that no one wants to sit "naked" over a 3 day weekend as ANYTHING can happen.
Silver targets are 47.40 and 48.00.
Gold targets are 1530 and 1580.
Xiphos has some nice charts today. But I particularly like the green background monthly silver chart 7 charts down from the top of the page. Netflix chart very instructive as well.
This gives a better view of the move over the past few months in relation to the past 20 yrs. The IH&S/cup formation from 2008-2010
accurately predicted the jump to $30. Then the half way pattern (flag) neatly formed at $28-$31 (starting from $15 in Jan. 2010) that identified the point
where silver was 50% of the way to the target. The half way flag at around $30 (from $15) also predicted the level we are currently at with the move basically
complete as far as price objective goes. Note that the current nearly vertical leg is the 3rd leg of Major 3....typically the most bullish leg of an entire longer term bull run.
From an Elliot Wave perspective it should all come as no surprise. Silver is currently in the minor 3rd leg of that 3 of 3 sequence. Bullish to the 3rd degree! 3 of 3 of 3.
Ironic that silver was called "cooked" by some just as it finished it's first leg up of the bullish 3rd wave (1 of 3 of 3). It was just starting to simmer. 2 of 3 of 3 took it back down
to $26 for only a brief time. This current sequence should end on 5 of 3 of 3 by June.
Major Leg one in silver ended at $21 in 3/2008
Then Major Leg two bottoms at $8-$9 in 10/2008
Major Leg three still in progress and working on its 3rd and most impressive leg - but now in the process of completing intermediate 3rd move up from the $26 low in January 2011. A small correction should ensue during intermed. leg 4, then silver will complete it's last intermed. move up during leg 5 in May/June to an ATH....probably $50+. The summer should give time to complete the 4th leg of Major Leg 3 bringing silver back into the lower 40's or even into the 30's. There will be $30 or so of upside that needs to be corrected. Worst case is a full blown retreat to the $20 neckline that was never retested. But in very bullish markets that doesn't always occur. When gold broke out above it's multi-year neckline in 2009 it never went back and retested the $1000 neckline. It never got lower than $1044. If anything silver was in a more bullish stance than gold when it broke above it's $20 neckline. So the pull back to $26 in January might have been the "retest." Sometime in the fall silver's Major Leg 5 will commence which should take it >$100.
roadrunner
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>PC, gold's rise from $800 or so looks like the orderly rise of a monetary standard based on a growing recognition of "something". >>
If we remove the machinations of 2008, which were really 1-off events as the derivatives mess came to a head, then gold's rise has been quite orderly
all the way back to around $300-$400/oz. Very orderly indeed. Now what's silver's problem?
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Options expiration in the metals Tuesday-Wednesday
TBond auction week Tu-Thurs
FMOC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday
But POMO is then off the table until Thursday/Friday. The metals are due for a brief pause. The next 2-3 days gives that perfect opportunity. It will also allow the Morgue to buy back a
few more silver shorts so they don't have to deliver as much physical metal come next week. There were close to 50,000 contracts still left to deal with as of Thursday's close. Just as I finish writing this gold already back to within $1 of closing last night's gap $1506. Silver should follow.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Silver now into 4th wave correction in the current wave pattern that began on March 15th. Once this wave 4 completes over several days to a week, it will be on to wave 5
which will take it to a new all time high somewhere in the $54-$62 range by late May or early June. The wave 2 correction that occured in March lasted 6 days and was a relatively
flattish ABC. This one will probably last no longer but will be steeper. I think $44.75 makes sense for a bottom as a slightly ascending neckline from the mid-April cup hits multiple
key resistance and support points. But a flatter neckline from that cup leaves $43-$43.50 as the hard resistance point where things went parabolic.
The two previous up legs ran $11 and $17 respectively. The last one should be something inbetween such as $14-$15. I see $57-$59.XX as a reasonable topping point to toy with
the $60 level.
Bears explain FRN's for us
roadrunner
Although I wouldn't rule out a whipsaw move down before or right after the FOMC press conference. I fully anticipate that meeting to announce QE3, although I bet they won't call it that...
BEIJING - The central bank is planning new investment funds to diversify holdings in the nation's $3 trillion foreign exchange reserves, to hedge against depreciation and inflation risks, according to a news report.
The proposed funds will invest some of the foreign reserves in energy and precious metal markets, the New Century Weekly said on Monday, citing unnamed sources close to the People's Bank of China.
<< <i>Silver RSI on hourly and daily basis is 88+ and 89+ as of 9:42 EDT. It is also touching the uptrend line connecting the tops since Jan. I nibbled on SLV puts although there could be a little more upside as silver has dropped a buck from overnight highs already and may want to retouch those levels during a more active market. >>
Silver did indeed try to retest the morning highs. I bought back position of SLV puts and added some ZSL just before 1pm yest. Sold 1/2 ZSL and all SLV puts at the open this morn.
So far this is almost scripted. As I stated a week or so ago, the best time to make a top (whether short or long term, who cares) is on a Sunday night. This was a perfect setup with this past Sunday being a holiday and metals markets closed in Europe the following Monday.
Also RSI's pushing 90 on the daily and hourly charts was a layup. Just wish I had greater intestinal fortitude.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Target are mid-54's for silver, 1580's for gold, and about 1450 for SP500.
I will create a May thread later today...
Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
MACAU
emgworldwide@gmail.com
Cell: 512.808.3197
EMERGING MARKET GROUP
PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
Gold's turn to go parabolic in a 3rd wave upwards.
From TF's blog today on the strange silver vs. gold trading action.
Friday, April 29, 2011 - Just When You Think You've Seen It All
You get days like today...
Never mind that I told you this morning that silver would be capped all day.
Never mind that I warned you last night that The Wicked Witch would be stalking the pit like a mythical beast.
Never mind that I told you yesterday that gold was going to be leading silver for a while.
Today was truly breathtaking it it's peculiarity.
I've been around a long time and maybe my memory is starting to fail. (Wouldn't surprise me. It's always been said that alcohol abuse damages brain cells.) I cannot recall ever seeing such a disconnect between silver and gold on a day session. Ever. Oh, sure, maybe silver might be up or down 3% while gold only moves 1% but at least they'd be moving in tandem. To have the two totally and completely trade independent of each other is absolutely extraordinary. Here are your two charts to consider. They are both 5-minute pictures of today's action.
So, what does this mean? Is it just an aberration? A coincidence? No freaking way, my friends. Everything...and I mean everything...is being done to temporarily restrain silver. The Cartel is effectively expending their entire "conventional" arsenal in their attempt to survive May settlement in silver and live to play another day. Think about it, this week we've seen:
1) Two CME margin increases in 48 hours.
2) Every available Disinformation Agent has been put forth to convince the sheep that silver has topped.
3) Sell side analysts stubbornly refusing to raise or even maintain year end price estimates. Remember, year end estimates are critical to the calculation of miner share price forecasts.
4) Today's historic price divergence.
5) And now, on the Globex, on a Friday no less, The EE is putting the hammer down in an attempt to gin up ever more top-calling over the weekend. Since closing on the Comex at about 48.60, silver is now down 80 cents, the majority of which has come in three minutes.
Anyway, the good news is that The Cartel has been successful. Weak-handed longs have been frightened. They've run from silver and charged into gold, instead. This is great news! I'm long a bunch of June 1550 gold calls so I made a lot of money today. Thanks, Blythe!! Its also great news because we needed The Comex to survive May. The fundos haven't changed. In fact, they've only gotten worse. Remember the Scotia story? June will be another crazy, wild month in the silver pit and we will have a remarkable opportunity to make a boatload of money. In the words of The Wicked Witch herself, "Ruprecht, IF Turd Ferguson is correct, we'll make enough money to BUY Venezuela"!
And, regarding this "topcalling nonsense". Since when has any market topped while everyone was telling you to sell. I'll tell you when...NEVER! Markets "top" when the last buyer has bought...when there is no fear and no perception of risk. Is that today's silver market? Hardly! The fact that so many idiots are trying to convince you to sell your silver is simply a sign that silver will trade even higher. "Climbing the wall of worry", as they say.
So, relax and be happy. Go into the weekend KNOWING that you are WINNING. Gold is at $1562/ounce, for the love of pete! Rejoice! TF out
roadrunner