***APRIL 2011 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
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This is a continuation of the monthly thread for discussing relatively short or near term movements in precious metals and related securities.
Early this morning gold saw a $20 takedown which it has recovered half of. Gold and silver are still stuck in consolidation mode.
Early this morning gold saw a $20 takedown which it has recovered half of. Gold and silver are still stuck in consolidation mode.
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Silver just turned green
The dollar has gotten hammered in the last two hours. below .76 again
The Euro surged from 1.41 to 1.42 was is a huge reversal. For chart geeks check out any of the sub hourly interval charts. Check dem candles out.
Interesting tree shaking sort of day so far................MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Gold almost flat
Silver just turned green
The dollar has gotten hammered in the last two hours. below .76 again
The Euro surged from 1.41 to 1.42 was is a huge reversal. For chart geeks check out any of the sub hourly interval charts. Check dem candles out.
Interesting tree shaking sort of day so far................MJ >>
New lows on the US$ against Australian and Canadian. Sure glad a bot those several weeks ago---
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold almost flat
Silver just turned green
The dollar has gotten hammered in the last two hours. below .76 again
The Euro surged from 1.41 to 1.42 was is a huge reversal. For chart geeks check out any of the sub hourly interval charts. Check dem candles out.
Interesting tree shaking sort of day so far................MJ >>
New lows on the US$ against Australian and Canadian. Sure glad a bot those several weeks ago--- >>
SWEET trade Percy! MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The dollar can take a hit and the bull keeps running along
Gas goes up full up extra cans
We have no fear
Glen
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Looks like we have our breakout this morning. I'm not sure if it's "definitive" yet but is sure looks that way.
I have a near-term target in silver at $41.25, and gold at $1473.
risk trade to run a bit.
The miners had been confusing as a number of seniors were showing decreasing money flows over the past few weeks or month. ABX was the most obvious. But today's
breakout negates all that. That was all just a quick pull back before starting leg #3 up. Volume ratio of GDX (or GDXJ) to SPY was very large today, confirming the move.
This will put a major crimp in Bob Hoye's expected "all one market" correction. Looks like copper is trying to turn around as well as have a number of the grains and softs
reversing trends after steep recent corrections. Big gap ups from 3/31 in most of the grains still need to be filled. The 10yr to 2 yr TBond ratio started flattening and turning
the past 2 days indicating another trend change was probably in the making.
roadrunner
<< <i>So I was going to write yesterday but my only observation was that in gold we're nearing the end of a triangle consolidation that I would have expected to resolve this week. I also noted that silver was having a heck of a time pulling gold higher (to new highs).
Looks like we have our breakout this morning. I'm not sure if it's "definitive" yet but is sure looks that way.
I have a near-term target in silver at $41.25, and gold at $1473. >>
Connecting the peak in 2006 to the peak in 2008 and extending outward on a log scale projects to 1750. GSR at 37 is too low.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The ~2.5 year channel from the previous thread has an upward boundary of around $1600 at the moment, which probably makes a reasonable "big run" target.
as has every other neckline breakout.
Very large volume spike today in the GDX/SPY ratio. Largest in months. So that's often indicative of further strength to come. USERX moved up strongly today to give a buy signal on the 35-39 day back prices. Another 2.5% move will send a buy signal on the 92-96 day back prices which could imply a multi-month run to follow....assuming once in that it holds. The
money flows on all the gold seniors reversed strongly today. A great headfake as disinterest was climaxing and caught most flat footed.
Welcome GSR to the 36's!
roadrunner
GDX / SPY chart
I'm not in EXK but it has certainly had a good run as of late. Had I owned some I'm sure I would have let a lot of it go already. If I was in some really cheap I just might let it ride.
But I don't have the good fortune of being in that position.
roadrunner
One important observation to boost the bullish scenario for gold is that gold priced in Euros finally broke a long downward trend. Another good indicator is that stocks (SP500) is looking good and looking to head higher for the rest of the month, and gold and stocks have had a strong direct correlation lately.
The USD is oversold and ready for rebound, but this probably won't affect gold as the relationship has been broken and unreliable for quite some time.
Mclellan called the late Mar bottom for gold pretty well, and is looking at an Apr 12 top for gold.
Picked up a handful of NEM call options on the dip...
For Friday Gold has support at 1453.3 and resistance at 1459.7, 1466.1, 1472.7, 1485.5.
Did very well with the NEM calls, holding on to them for another day... if gold can release upwards on Friday I'll probably take profits and not hold over the weekend.
Interesting news is Portugal asking for a bailout from the EU. Didn't seem to affect the markets much and it didn't seem to get many headlines, but an announcement of the actual bailout may do something... or maybe the market is expecting it. But then again the expected size is "only" on the order of $100B.
Good call on Newmont. It looks like it has the most momentum of any senior right now. Who would of thought that after it's last update that production in 2011 would be slightly off whereupon the stock was beat to a pulp. Now they come out and say they will increase production sharply from 2012-2017 and that gets it flying again. Gotta love those fickle buyers.
Dollar is getting ready to fall off the cliff tonight.....looking for new highs tomorrow in gold and silver ($40+) 3rd touch at $1466 in progress. That might be it. Silver at new high.
roadrunner
After a bunch of reading and pondering tonight, I was taken back to late 2004 when I was looking at investing in new homes here in Phoenix. Builders were starting almost weekly $1000 price increases and selling out of lots in a few days. Sales to investors weren't restricted at the time. As we all know, this was just the beginning, as the price increases became $5-10k/wk, with camping out the night-before and lotteries and drawings for those lucky enough to get picked to buy a house...
I knew a lot less about investing, bubbles, and all that good stuff back then. But I've got to say, it feels about like that in silver right now. Until now I don't think I seriously considered $200 silver as 'imminent', but after tonight I am convinced that $200 is on the way in the next 2 years. J6P still isn't talking about buying PMs, and I think it's just now starting to appear on the radar screen. It'll soon move to $80 over the next few months, at which time the "early comers" of the late bandwagon will get on. They are the ones who will spread the news to their noob friends about the 25% they just made in a few months. Then the momentum will build as the rest of the public starts jumping on the bandwagon, and things will go nuts from there. I think this move is about to gain some critical mass... we aint seen nothing yet!
Funny thing is those "new comers" to the late bandwagon will (probably) "only" stand to double or triple their money, while all of us long-timers will be looking at 10-20x or more.
But yet another day of large volume ratio spikes of GDX, GDXJ, SIL to the SPY. Money must be still be moving in large quantity to/from the miners vs. the SPY. 3 of the last 4 days had these spikes.
Took advantage of the nearly $2 opening spike in BVN and sold shares with intent of buying some back on this $1+ dip. Already fallen back $1.30. BVN is still following EPU to some extent as the election comes to a head this Sunday. The strike is not helping. Was looking to add some AEM shares <$66 this morning but with gold spiking it was up a $1. No go. Will continue to watch it.
roadrunner
<< <i>Gap up this morning with gold >$1470 wasn't all that impressive in the gold miners. Momentum looks a bit weak. Maybe a day or two of pullback from here to fill that daily gap?
But yet another day of large volume ratio spikes of GDX, GDXJ, SIL to the SPY. Money must be still be moving in large quantity to/from the miners vs. the SPY. 3 of the last 4 days had these spikes.
Took advantage of the nearly $2 in BVN and sold some shares with intent of buying some back on this $1+ dip. Already fallen back $1.30. BVN is still following EPU to some extent as the election comes to a head this Sunday. Was looking to add some AEM shares <$66 this morning but with gold spiking it was up a $1. No go. Will continue to watch it.
roadrunner >>
I just sold some mining stock options that are going to expire next week (nice profit). I will be back next week if there is a small pull-back. Not selling any of my mining stocks. Will hold for the long term.
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Silver taking a drop gave the miners a quick jolt in the afternoon. It was sudden, deep, and over almost as soon as it started. AEM came within a few cents of filling it's morning gap
up. Ended the day pretty close to the morning high. Nice elevator ride. Speaking of elevator rides, take a look at Puda coal plumbing the depths on word of potential fraud with the Chairman's stock trading. These days, whether true or not, all it takes is anyone shouting "fraud" at a less than large cap Chinese corporation and down she goes.
GSR was just recently welcomed to the 36 level. Today we also welcomed it to the 35 level.
roadrunner
Although I didn't expect it so soon, my call from yesterday was spot on with a call for attempting $41.00, falling just shy by pennies. If gold has the will for another $30, it seems that silver is capable of $44.
As mentioned before, a top is predicted on Apr 12 but I think that may be off by a day or two or else we are looking at a wild Monday and Tuesday. This move has been pretty much straight up, which is worrisome, and I would expect a decent retracement after hitting these targets... or perhaps even falling just shy of projections which is what usually kills me because you are reluctant to sell on the initial pullback because it appears to just be a temporary thing, until it keeps going, and going, and you finally relent that your projection was wrong or just simply not achieved. Of course, this results in giving back a lot of the profits.
Palladium back up over $800 briefly today.
Dollar vulnerable but oversold.
Chart is tracking just like the 2 previous annual run ups that were 1 yr apart. Things should be fine for several more weeks as the indicators finally max out.
Once 83 is exceeded, a return to below that will be a major warning. For now, enjoy the ride. USERX missed giving a 92-96 day buy signal by 4 cents. That
would put all the key timers into full bullish mode. If USERX just stays put, a buy signal will be given on Monday. But note that next week and into the following
week the 92-96 USERX closes start climbing to 22. It will probably revert right back and give a brief sell signal. That also occurs right around SM options expiration end
of next week. A good time for a hit, especially with 3/10/30 TBond auctions Tuesday-Thursday. But then the USERX starts diving for 2 months (Dec-January downtrend).
It should be fairly easy to keep current price above those falling back prices.
Monday is a heavy POMO day. The new POMO/QE3 schedule for April/May gets released on Tuesday. Probably can expect 2 heavy POMO's at end of next week.
roadrunner
Shamu
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
position silver was off and running. I can post when I'm in ZSL again to give everyone a heads up!
Stated the following elsewhere today but it has merit for the trading thread as well. Lots of posts on silver's direction. If one were trying to determine a top based on "buzz" alone
this is getting very "noisy." Seems like there are fights breaking out on whether silver goes up or down. Clantons vs. the Earps. Hatfields vs. the McCoys.
The second half of this week offers some resistance with bond auctions and options expiration in the stock market. Should at least stall PM's advance.
Based on the number of strong Mondays since last July I'd go with Monday as an up-day. Tuesday is more likely as the pummel day imo.
A FED POMO day on Monday will help to boost things as well. Tuesday is bare though...a better day to raid.
While there might be some relatively minor price pullbacks, both gold and silver are very likely headed higher over the next 3-8 weeks.
The PM market is following the same general glide path it did in April to June of both 2009 and 2010. Liquidity will start flowing out of most markets
in later May or early June. Enjoy the ride until then. $43-$45 silver seems like a min. target. $46-$53+ is certainly achievable. While
silver is certainly stoked and "ripe" for a big correction, gold is not. And until gold gives up the ghost on this run, silver will stay in the game
no matter how overbought it gets. Gold is the heavyweight. Gold is targeting the $1525-$1650 for multiple reasons. $1575 seems to come up the most often.
Oil is helping to pull PM prices up as are the recovering grains and soft commodities, copper included. All boats have been rising on the floundering dollar.
This current run in silver seems to compare well with the massive run it performed in early 2006 climbing from $9 to $15...a 66% gain. It was
massively overbought during that run as well. A similar gain would take silver from the $26 bottom in January to $43.60 by May.
That 2006 run to $735 gold and $15 silver ended on the 18th week of the year. We just finished the 14th week of this year.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Earlier this morning I went long ZSL May calls. We will see. >>
Nice trading. I bot SLV puts. From the high to low silver dropped 5.2% today and may have made a bearing engulfing candle.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So a couple of observations from Monday...
-We had 9 green candles in a row, so a red one was due.
-We have already achieved a 38.2% retracement in SI, so that correction could be over.
-GC has not achieved it's correction yet, but it doesn't have too far to go, depending on which retracement target you're looking at.
-Just like gold's reaction was muted while silver shot up, gold's reaction down is also muted.
-Overall, it seems like the biggest influence was probable crude oil, and I'd say that the near term PM prices hinge strongly on the direction of crude from here.
-USD (DX) now hanging out in the low 75's... oversold and due for rebound but IMO unlikely to influence PM prices much in either direction.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I had been watching XPL since December when it gapped up figuring that the eventual correction would fill that gap. Well it lingered 4 months, far longer than I ever expected. In fact I had given up on it ever filling figuring it had some major fundamental shift in its resources/valuation and would not come back. It seemed to defy every correction while holding that neckline hard. But it finally closed the gap on these 2 furious days reaching all the way down to the 200 dma, 8 month uptrend line, while retesting it's original breakout. Don't own the stock but thought the chart was constructive. Someone wiped out a lot of sell stops today. Once XPL broke that H&S neckline early yesterday, I knew PM's were in for a couple days of heavy hitting. GDX came back far enough to retest the breakout from last Tuesday. Gold touching $1445 so far has retested its breakout point as well from that $1440-$1448 congestion area (ie Sinclair's $1444 angel).
XPL Solitario Royalty
TBond auctions through Thursday and expiration on Friday will continue to aid in holding stocks down. Blame for the downturn seems to be given to Japan upgrading its nuclear disaster to a grade 7. But with things a bit overblown, it could have just as easily been most anything else. With so many sectors involved, I don't see why it won't linger for much of this week.
POMO schedule through May 11th has 13 heavy days of $5-$8 BILL. $97 BILL total. Next ones are 13th, 14th, 15th this week. So that should supply some help to stocks the rest of the week. Next week only has a single heavy day which could spell trouble, but nothing else is going on either. The final week of the month as gold futures expire has 3 POMO days. Markets seem lost without their POMO fix.
roadrunner
BTW, yesterday I was going to post this from a newsletter I got:
According to Anthony Neglia, president of Tower Trading, the metals were getting bullied by Goldman Sachs. The investment firm issued a note Monday urging clients to take profits in commodities as the broad rally might not last as high oil prices eat into demand. All commodities were taking a hit Tuesday, oil prices were down almost $4.
If this is indeed true, then the pullback was indeed temporary and that's what we're seeing. Too bad I sold my SLV calls today...
Price Changes
help, especially with a gap in the POMO schedule. Now POMO is running heavy the remainder of this week. But stock market options expiration on Friday (and oil yesterday) all
added to the fun. A G20 meeting is going on today and tomorrow in Washington, DC so I don't think they want to see commodities go flying. One of their topics of discussion is
how to make commodities less volatile....lol. All they have to do is look at rising sovereign debt and fiat printing to find their answer.
roadrunner
<< <i>What happened to PAAS yesterday? Somebody make a hard play? Dip buy opportunity?? >>
Concern that Bolivia might nationalize mines. Both CDE and PAAS have mines there. Today the rumor was softened stating that only mines that were once under
govt control and later privatized would be considered. It comes down to how much do you trust the Bolivian govt.
roadrunner
previous all time high and add the handle. $585/oz. Even using a non-log chart would get you to $95.
Tend to feel that equities are tacking on a right shoulder deeper into April before moving upwards...miners too. Maybe gold and silver are pointing the eventual way, but miners languish with the S&P? Gold & silver just broke out against the components of the USDollar Index (UDN) now joining the same move that was made against the dollar. Nadeem Walayat has called this equities rebound very well since its inception 2 yrs ago. He's looking at a higher low in the Dow through later April. But expects things to pickup again in May-June. Where he diverges from most everyone else is that he see's considerably higher stock prices by late summer, and all time highs by Dec/early 2012. A short period here where miners are not following breakouts in the bullion prices could be just what the doctor ordered to shake out the final weak hands. These markets have a habit of zigging just when they "told you" it was time to zig.
With gold running higher I don't know if we'll get it but a move in the HUI back to 570-575 (daily closing price neckline) or to 550-555 (lower channel line from Jan. bottom) would certainly fit a bullish stance. Walayat's end of April weaker equities forecast would coincide for the next monthly bottom due in the HUI. The 555 level has been a particularly "busy" level over the past 5 months. Hitting that again would allow the HUI to once again retest that monthly IH&S, hit a key resistance line, and allow time to contract the BB's. That would also coincide with Cyclist's next turn date later this month. The lack of heavy POMO on the 20th-22nd give those days more susceptibility. Only Tuesday this week is a strong POMO day so the markets are pretty much on their own this week. Next week is of course options expiration. The timing seems to be right for miners to continue to act snakey and complete a little ABC, but still allow gold to run towards $1500 before being repelled the 1st time.
Hecla had a fatality and mine shaft cave-in that will probably affect their price today. Already down 5% in overseas trading but then again both silver and gold are moving down as well.
Update: darn, 5 minutes as I'm typing the PM's stop their pre-market correction. Gold turned right around from $1478 and jumped almost straight up to $1498. So much for buying stuff cheap this morning. Unless we get a nice bounce backwards from that $1500 Maginot line. Silver's bounce was shallow compared to gold's. When's the last time that happened? Now I see the reason. The dollar fell off a small cliff and retraced back to the current hourly uptrend line that began Friday. Gold's move in light of that seems giddy. First attempt at $1500 quickly repelled to $1491 with lots of profit taking. That peak in gold also corresponds to the hourly peaks over last week....a convenient place to stop. Silver had broken below the uptrend channel formed since last Thursday. This morning thrust was a retest back up to that channel. The S&P was forming a very symmetric IH&S the past few days that seemed "ready" to break upwards. But it blew below the head this morning.
Very unusual that gold and silver bullion are knocking on new highs this morning as stocks tanks and the VIX is rising. Usually TBonds and fiat get the safety trade on hits like today. But today gold and silver are getting attention. Liquidity leaving the main markets, but not yet with gold and silver bullion. Interesting.
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Gold has finally touched one of the lines up my upward channel on this chart, so we could be looking at a pullback from here. I have a hunch we're in for a bit higher, ~1530 before a decent pullback.
Warren Buffet received a check from Goldman Sachs today for $5.5 BILL....ultimately paid for by the US taxpayers. That's the first installment for Warren
being a team player by getting rid of his silver in 2006. That pretty much covers all that he would have made on his silver had he kept it....plus interest.
roadrunner
That may be about to change as gold is getting awfully close to backwardation--only a $4 premium out to Feb 2012. We've seen over the last 2 months what backwardation has done to silver. Backwardation=parabola.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Overall, the current patterns seem just about exhausted on the longer term charts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent pullback before too long...
Silver reached it's H&S target from last week of $44. Gold still has a little bit of work to do to get to $1510-$1515.
Today was the only big POMO day for the week. So the "recovery" in the S&P today following yesterday's old "Standard & Poors news" was rather sedate. Let's see how the SM
does the rest of the week with no POMO. Miners will tend to follow the S&P. The CDNX had a slight down day on heavier volume than yesterday. The volumes in GDX and
GDXJ were much lighter on the slight rise today....lowest volume in the last 11 trading days. Want to see more volume follow-through to shift to a more bullish mode.
roadrunner
Saw a post over at Kitco that CDE and HL were both no longer in the GDX. Sure enough they are gone. With PAAS and SLW also not represented that leaves 4 of the major silver miners not among the chosen. SSRI, SVM, and AG are the three top silver miners on the list. Silver is still around 15-20% of GDXJ if you include other gold miners like Minefinders, Gammon, USGold, etc. that have a large % of silver in their production. Van Eck continues to fine tune GDXJ as needed to keep it current and productive. On the other GDX is mostly seniors and intermediates so it's overall % change is very small. 2 takeover candidates have been removed from GDXJ (Ventana and Fronteer). And hopefully they will offer a dividend again as they did last year.
GSR now into the 32's. So much for the witching number 33.33.
roadrunner
<< <i>Finally getting the downdraft in the stock market I was looking for. My trade just went green for the first time albeit light green. My patience was tested............MJ >>
Bleck.............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......