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Never sell a bull market position

JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
There was an awful lot of giddiness last week by some when silver was knocked down to $33.60. We were told it was headed down to $22. We were told that some were thankful that they sold at $34. We were told that some caught the top. Cool, to each is own..........on the other hand, Franklin Sanders scribed this on Monday. I feel it has merit and I tend to agree.

" Rubbing in what I wrote on Friday about never selling a bull market position -- if you had looked at silver & gold last week, you'd have bet respectable money they were headed lower. If so, & you had sold your long-term bull market position, you'd be keening, wailing, & mourning today. As I said, if you can pick the primary trend and ride it, that's plenty profitable enough. Don't worry about catching the little zigs and zags of trading."------FS

Discuss.

I really don't care.................. really.............................. but silver is near a 30+ year high as I type.

MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......

Comments

  • curlycurly Posts: 2,880

    Agree, brother. Always try to look at the big picture and not at the daily dips. Don't play the pm game with scared money.
    Every man is a self made man.
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,172 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>There was an awful lot of giddiness last week by some when silver was knocked down to $33.60. We were told it was headed down to $22. We were told that some were thankful that they sold at $34. We were told that some caught the top. Cool, to each is own..........on the other hand, Franklin Sanders scribed this on Monday. I feel it has merit and I tend to agree.

    " Rubbing in what I wrote on Friday about never selling a bull market position -- if you had looked at silver & gold last week, you'd have bet respectable money they were headed lower. If so, & you had sold your long-term bull market position, you'd be keening, wailing, & mourning today. As I said, if you can pick the primary trend and ride it, that's plenty profitable enough. Don't worry about catching the little zigs and zags of trading."------FS

    Discuss.

    I really don't care.................. really.............................. but silver is near a 30+ year high as I type.

    MJ >>



    I would agree in principle, but also say never say never. Sell if you have to, or if you have a better use for the money.
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Point well taken Cpt.............MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • MesquiteMesquite Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭
    I'm still stacking ... but ... I have seen somewhere (don’t recall the source) that a nominal Au/Ag ratio in one’s PM stack is 1.5/1; with 1:1 being considered aggressive (I presume that means the ratio of $ in gold to $ in silver). Well, if these ratios really mean anything, my holdings, at 0.62/1 (more heavily into silver than gold), are pretty dang aggressive - meaning that there will be more stack value volatility heading into the future.

    To "fix" this ratio I have reallocated by swapping silver for gold. Two weeks ago I brought my core bullion stack to a Au/Ag of 0.91/1. This trade was at an effective Ag/Au ratio of 42.6/1 (with the spot Ag/Au ratio of 39.5/1, so it cost me something to do this). This past weekend I repeated the exercise. My core position is now at a Au/Ag of 2.4/1. Three positive outcomes occur to me. First, the PM stack value will likely be more stable going into the future (the % drop or rise in gold price is less than that seen in silver during splunges and zzzzzooms); second, my future PM purchases can be done in more financially manageable bite-sized silver purchases as I begin to lower the Au/Ag ratio from 2.4/1 to the target 1.5/1; and third, the strong-box has more room in it and it‘s not as heavy as it use to be, an important consideration as I approach the age of 60. Any thoughts?
    There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.
    –John Adams, 1826
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only time you should start selling your longterm bull market position is if you think that something fundamental has changed. Sure, you should buy and sell a trading position, and you might cash out some of your position for other priorities - of course!

    One other thing - who is going to liquidate their whole position all at once? Nobody. That being the case, any mis-steps can be bought back at the higher price if you make a mistake. Call it tuition.

    If the fundamentals and the baseline trend are still intact, selling 100% of a bull market position implies one of two things - either clairvoyance or insanity. I rule out stupidity because they wouldn't have bought in the first place if they were truly stupid.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭
    Look at platinum dropping like a rock from $2300 an ounce to $800 in a very short time in 08. Right now its been holding for the past 3 years at around $1700+ an ounce. I would never sell my platinum at $800 an ounce. Same goes for selling my silver at $22. Let it all fall. I won't be selling for another 20 years anyway,
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,356 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How about buying in this bull run, MJ.

    Can a man cast fear aside and let the thick and calloused cajones speak?

    At this point, I will visit local shows and support the particpants with my purchases; otherwise, the AP's ATB's continue to be a buy.

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • Steve27Steve27 Posts: 13,274 ✭✭✭
    I still say you can't get hurt taking profits, and if silver continues to rise, I will continue to sell.
    "It's far easier to fight for principles, than to live up to them." Adlai Stevenson
  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,318 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I totally agree with the OP's statement.

    But back in the Fall, when silver blew through the '20's and went from $18 to $31 in 3 months, I was considering selling quite a bit.

    I figured the rise in price was almost 'vertical' on the chart and how could it stay at $31?

    I was thinking I made a mistake by not selling when the price did drop to $27 to $28 (I think??) for a week or so, but then quickly marched back to $31 and look where it is today!

    Things are different today in the silver market.

    If this was two years ago, that correction would have dropped silver back to $20 but it didn't happen.

    I do believe silver's run-up is going to be steady and of course there's going to be 'zig-zag' movements along the way but it takes a brave man to sell your silver in a bull run to try to buy it back at a lower price.

    Better to hold your position.

    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I still say you can't get hurt taking profits, and if silver continues to rise, I will continue to sell. >>



    Your thesis is well taken, except would you consider selling the best hitting ball player on your team if he kept performing well? Probably not, so consider your best positions your best hitters. JMHO.
    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How about buying in this bull run, MJ.

    Can a man cast fear aside and let the thick and calloused cajones speak?

    At this point, I will visit local shows and support the particpants with my purchases; otherwise, the AP's ATB's continue to be a buy.

    Miles >>



    Miles, one mans $36 is anothers $63 perhaps. Besides, what else you gonna do with your cash : ). I prefer to average up, not down. It's my compass if you will and it ets me know I'm going in the right direction. Wingsrule said it wonderfully in another thread.

    Stackers are a different lot for sure. Right now they are winning in spades.

    You know it's a good thread when you can get both Miles and Curly to post to it. Two of my favorite posters.

    Steve, I don't agree with your premise but you have plenty of ole school supporters of that rule of thumb. I certainly respect it. I just find it counter intuitive and I can't wrap my head around it at all. But, sleeping weight does make sense to me and we are all wired differently.

    Mesquite, I MAYBE swapping silver for gold myself. My silver position which is my spectulative position is over weight. Wouldn't it be a kick in the pants if the ole standbearer gold/silver ratio of 15:1 was achieved with both making all-time highs? Most assumed this ratio might be achieved on the downside. Still could I guess.

    MJ

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    One of my trading rules is never underestimate the power of a mania. Doesnt matter if its PM, stocks, or real estate. Prices will continue higher until they stop.


    As you climb the mountain and are comfortable with the view, there is nothing wrong with sitting back and enjoying the moment. If you are adventurous and want to see the view from higher up the mountain then feel free to keep climbing. Usually the highest mountains are enshrouded in clouds, so it can be difficult to see the increasing dangers.

    As my buddy Cramer always says, "theres always a bull market somewhere". image


    MJ's tagline says "stay thirsty". Mine would be similar, "stay liquid". Afterall you cant quench thirst without something liquid.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Besides, what else you gonna do with your cash : ).

    The quintessential question. And it needs to be repeated frequently.image

    As you climb the mountain and are comfortable with the view, there is nothing wrong with sitting back and enjoying the moment.

    imageimageimageimageimage
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,012 ✭✭✭✭
    In another thread Sunday afternoon, I stated silver would hit $37/oz this week. It is $0.03 away as I type and the GSR has a 38 handle on it. Will it last? I don't know. While I unloaded some 90% at a show over the weekend, I immediately sunk a portion of that right back into 10 oz JM bars. I 'lost' a small amount on the conversion, but those 10 ozers are now in the money even before you take any premiums into account. Most of that 90% had been sitting in a corner for quite awhile.

    "Averaging up" and/or "trading up" is a good thing in my book.


  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,318 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>In another thread Sunday afternoon, I stated silver would hit $37/oz this week. It is $0.03 away as I type and the GSR has a 38 handle on it. Will it last? I don't know. While I unloaded some 90% at a show over the weekend, I immediately sunk a portion of that right back into 10 oz JM bars. I 'lost' a small amount on the conversion, but those 10 ozers are now in the money even before you take any premiums into account. Most of that 90% had been sitting in a corner for quite awhile.

    "Averaging up" and/or "trading up" is a good thing in my book. >>



    I agree with your price predictions but I have trouble understanding why you would sell silver coin (90%) just to buy silver bars.

    Aren't you taking an unnecessary loss on both transactions?

    Help me understand.....
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486
    The old saw is that you never go wrong taking a profit, but..... Did you sell your Dell stock in '90 after tripling your money, or did you hang on until it had increased something like 80,000 %. If you can use the money, take some profits. But if you don't have too, hang on.image
  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486


    << <i>Agree, brother. Always try to look at the big picture and not at the daily dips. Don't play the pm game with scared money. >>



    Curly I always wanted to ask you about your icon pic, is that John Lee Hooker???

    Actually I intended this as a PMimage
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,012 ✭✭✭✭
    DE59,

    The initial purpose was to offload some 90%. When I spotted those old, sealed JM bars for a minor pittance over spot, I couldn't resist. Some of the other dealers there were asking for nearly a $3 premium over spot for .999 material.

    In the long run, as prices continue to escalate, I see a larger discount to spot for what people would be willing to pay for 90%. Watch some of the ads on the BST and you can see it happening already. Some of the WTB threads are showing 2.2-2.5X under what the theoretical should be (using 0.715 as the multiplier), not to mention wanting the seller to pay for shipping, and in some cases, wait until they receive it to set the sales price AND take a hit on the paypal payment. Tulving's buy and sell numbers for 90% have been trending lower (as far as the absolute $x.xx in relation to spot) but I do not have enough data to put a % on it.

    And silver spot is up $0.20 from my last post and currently at $37.17.image
  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,318 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>DE59,

    The initial purpose was to offload some 90%. When I spotted those old, sealed JM bars for a minor pittance over spot, I couldn't resist. Some of the other dealers there were asking for nearly a $3 premium over spot for .999 material.

    In the long run, as prices continue to escalate, I see a larger discount to spot for what people would be willing to pay for 90%. Watch some of the ads on the BST and you can see it happening already. Some of the WTB threads are showing 2.2-2.5X under what the theoretical should be (using 0.715 as the multiplier), not to mention wanting the seller to pay for shipping, and in some cases, wait until they receive it to set the sales price AND take a hit on the paypal payment. Tulving's buy and sell numbers for 90% have been trending lower (as far as the absolute $x.xx in relation to spot) but I do not have enough data to put a % on it.

    And silver spot is up $0.20 from my last post and currently at $37.17.image >>



    Thanks....good to know.
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,356 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A VERY prophetic thread you have created MJ!

    Here I am waxing poetic about buying and I realized I already have, by continuing to watch my stack rise in value vs. or in tandem with the dollar.

    $1438.fitty and $37. dos dos!! Let the games continue to begin and get ready to shake that first Martini MJ!

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Chuga chuga chuga C'mon 20:1 gsr!!
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just purchased a roll of Canadian Bears...(never thought I'd be willing to pay those premiums), but on the other hand, I'm continuing to sell silver bullion that were purchased at $19.80....FIFO method
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,837 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The trend is your friend. Embrace it.



    << <i>if silver continues to rise, I will continue to sell >>


    I don't fault you for taking profit but I must ask, if it is still rising after you have eventually cashed out will you buy back in?

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,393 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Just purchased a roll of Canadian Bears...(never thought I'd be willing to pay those premiums), but on the other hand, I'm continuing to sell silver bullion that were purchased at $19.80....FIFO method >>



    This conversion I don't get really outside of just wanting the newest thing. I have a couple rolls of ASE that were $5/oz, not sure I would sell them to replace them with $40/oz ASE or maples or whatever.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Never? Ever ever ever till the end of time?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,172 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Never? Ever ever ever till the end of time? >>



    That's why I said "Never say never!"

    image
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just purchased a roll of Canadian Bears...(never thought I'd be willing to pay those premiums), but on the other hand, I'm continuing to sell silver bullion that were purchased at $19.80....FIFO method

    I've recently had several discussions with my accountant regarding "like kind transactions". As long as you meet certain conditions, you can sell old to buy new and in the process, you can defer your taxes on the gain by folding your old cost basis into the cost basis of your new acquisition.

    So, my question for several of you is - are you taking the tax on your gains now when you sell? If so, why would you keep selling old silver holdings in order to buy new silver?

    Just askin'.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So, my question for several of you is - are you taking the tax on your gains now when you sell? If so, why would you keep selling old silver holdings in order to buy new silver? >>



    It's a hobby that keeps me occupied .... I do not subscribe to any SHTF scenarios, nor do I pay any attention to the conspiracy extremist's. PM's are just another avenue to make a buck. Taxes are not deferred. "Uncle will get his cut," whether it's now or 10 years from now, but I suspect the Tax rate will be substantially higher by then.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I suspect the Tax rate will be substantially higher by then.

    I suspect you will be proven correct on that, in fact - that was one of my justifications for pulling my retirement funds out when I did.image

    Excuse me for a sec - I need to clean some junk that keeping piling up on my fan.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What goes up can and does come down and when it does---get the hell out of the way in a hurry.

    Enjoy the AG ride but when the tide shifts...you better be on your toes.

    I culled half of my 90% last week and was happy riding from $7-9 to $34.

    There are much better things to buy right now than holding a non producing asset as an investment vehicle.

    I hope you'all enjoy the ride---to wherever it goes.
    Have a nice day
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Generally riding bull markets is a good plan unless you're really good at picking tops.

    With silver this isn't going to be true because silver's price will be decimated when the buying panic
    subsides. You're better off selling too soon and then buying back in when people realize the drop
    was far too large. Silver is in a long term bull market until the human race decides to move back into
    the caves or resume swinging from trees or until we can harvest it from off-world or the ocean.

    This is a bull market for the foreseeable future with a drop resulting from the buying panic caused by
    the wall street bankers who have caused much of the world's silver to be destroyed.



    Edited to add a little disclaimer; There's no certainty that the buying panic is actually underway
    and macroeconomic forces can still forestall or delay it. When silver has a multidollar up day then
    the panic will be underway.
    Tempus fugit.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Just purchased a roll of Canadian Bears...(never thought I'd be willing to pay those premiums), but on the other hand, I'm continuing to sell silver bullion that were purchased at $19.80....FIFO method

    I've recently had several discussions with my accountant regarding "like kind transactions". As long as you meet certain conditions, you can sell old to buy new and in the process, you can defer your taxes on the gain by folding your old cost basis into the cost basis of your new acquisition.

    So, my question for several of you is - are you taking the tax on your gains now when you sell? If so, why would you keep selling old silver holdings in order to buy new silver?
    Just askin'. >>



    Those like kind transactions are pretty onerous. If I read Oreville correctly on this topic you have to report in writing to the IRS the swap that you did. So now they officially have a record of your holdings. And in the case of items that might not be much more than silver bullion that sounds like a potentially difficult L-K-E to support from either side of the transaction. If one is swapping into a bullionesque silver item with a <15% premium, that to me would be no different than selling for cash. The IRS might think the same. That 15% thumbrule is not set in stone that I know of and probably varies from accountant to accountant and IRS agent to IRS agent.

    Proof SAE's bring strong premiums so they could probably be considered collectible. An exchange from silver bars or ouncers into proof SAE's might be considered a qualifiable trade. My question would be why would you since the goal is to stack as many silver ounces as possible? Once in proof SAE's you couldn't go back and trade for regular SAE's or bars again without triggering a potential tax event on any gains. But trading proof SAE's toward a set of MS69 "pucks" at 3-4X bullion price is probably ok. But again, why would you? I'm not sure if circ Morgans or Peace dollars would be considered "collectible" any more rather than just bullion items. VF-MS62 $20's are in the same boat. They all now basically trade within 10% of spot prices. With the large premiums they carried a couple of years ago they would have probably qualified as a collectible item and be traded towards other collectible (ie non-bullion) silver. But maybe BU rolls of Morgans might still be considered non-bullion, though I can see that window closing in time as well. In the same way I believe that a MS64 or MS65 Saint is not bullion to the IRS....at least not yet. But Patriot Act 2 left a foot in the door to use up to 2X intrinsic value to define "bullionesque." Under PA2 those MS64/65 Saints are "reportable" as bullion in that money laundering statute. In fact most generic MS66 $20 Saints probably fall under the PA 2 "bullion" definition. A CAC sticker raises that premium by another 30%. Wonder if the IRS would recognize the CAC premium? The PA2 bullion interpretation is not yet being used in the tax law but it is now on the books as one approved "legal" definition of bullion. It's there for the taking when deemed necessary.

    While it wish it were true that you trade "old" 90% silver for "new" 100 oz bars or ASE's, it's still a cash for cash transaction per the IRS.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Very interesting rr. I never knew that.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    rr, do you have Oreville's thread linked? I bought myself a 2011 Tax Guide from Ernst & Young and there are some examples that I will list, but it appears that unless the IRS has ruled on something specific, there still are some gray areas.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't have that link handy. But if you search "like kind exchange" or "LKE" on both the Coin and PM forums you will probably run across several discussions including some of
    Oreville's interpretations. He walked through how he handled an LKE in the disposition of one of his major gold coins. He exchanged 1 large collectible for a whole lot of smaller
    ones. Those IRS gray areas would concern me since there's no way to know if one's interpretation will ever be denied. You could even run it by an IRS representative who sees no
    issues with your interpretation today. And then years or months down the road they backtrack and disapprove it. And if I recall properly, if one fails to turn in the correct document
    delineating the exchange, that even if it met guidelines you might have some problems w/o the original declaration. But this is just my understanding based on what I've read from
    others. Don't take my word as gospel without discussing with your own accountant or a tax/IRS expert. I do think I have the basics right.

    Here are 2 links from the forum. One was on google as well. Some decent references in there. After reading these you'll definitely get the idea that LKE's are a royal pita. And
    obviously the IRS would rather just collect from you now than down the road.

    CU Forum link 1
    CU Forum link 2

    I mentioned numismatic lawyer Armand Vartian in that thread. He has written some very detailed articles in CoinWorld on LKE's. His interpretation of all the requirements is stunning.
    The information in link 2 above is quite detailed, especially from BigRick. I was surprised that Oreville was using the PA2 50% rule. That's probably the conservative way to go to cover yourself years down the road. But at the same time you're halving your ounces. But obviously you have to give something up to change a position. There are not many silver products that I'd want to buy that have premiums >50%. Those proof Canadian Bears mentioned above are right around the 16-17% level.

    I was feeling bad about not selling silver at the peak during the last 2 weeks and "worrying" about seeing it drop a lot. Now I feel better. image
    Getting tossed off the gold and silver bull will be easy. It's hanging in there that will be hard.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <There are much better things to buy right now than holding a non producing asset as an investment vehicle>

    What are these much better things to buy stuff you speak of? Examples please. Hopefully some of them will be tangible as well. TIA MJ

    FYI- If anyone wants to unload some salt send it to me in China. It's makes silvers rise look aenemic.

    MJ

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i><There are much better things to buy right now than holding a non producing asset as an investment vehicle>

    What are these much better things to buy stuff you speak of? Examples please. Hopefully some of them will be tangible as well. TIA MJ

    FYI- If anyone wants to unload some salt send it to me in China. It's makes silvers rise look aenemic.

    MJ >>



    Right now I am building inventory in my business and pursuing leasable crop producing land.
    We have gotten so low in inventory that not only does it make life doubly difficult to satisfy customers, I also feel that we are in for 10-20% price increases in the next 12 months. Better than money in the bank as far as I'm concerned.

    Producing land returns minimum 6%. Land prices have remained dormant. This is about to change. Certain land deals in parts of this country are like r/e in CAL in many respects from 76-77 or 82. Makes you wonder why more people aren't locking in these prices. Late 70's/early 80's in San Jose or L.A.---you could drive around town and buy a running
    67-8 Camaro convertible for less than 2k or a 64-5 GTO for $500-1000. Very few people saw that as a positive transaction at the time because the cars were out of favor. I like to look at out of favor opportunities.
    In certain parts of the country...you can purchase...i.e.---20-40 acre parcels of alfalfa producing cropland for +/-$2000/ACRE and net lease it for a 10% net return. And you still own the land. Beats the bank. Now that's with milk selling for $1.99 gallon. Do you think milk will remain at that price? I don't.


    Food is way too cheap in this country. Land produces food. 24 months from now---you will see. The free ride in PM's the last 10 years is over for me. My silver fun is over. I'm happy. I still have my meager collection of better generic and better date gold and minors. I don't care where gold goes or what happens to coin prices up or down.

    I'm almost 58 and this is the greatest buying opportunity in my lifetime. I was a commercial r/e broker in the western US from 77-92 until I bought this *&^%# company in L.A.-----

    ---I am watching so much foreign money pouring into CAL right now buying up what native CALifornians can't hang onto because they didn't save properly. The buying window will be open for awhile because I believe the situation is still deteriorating.

    image jmho
    Have a nice day
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    AWESOME steeterimage

    It sounds like you have a great plan. Investing in one's self is the ultimate perfect investment. Love the food/farm angle. I personally wish I knew more about this avenue.

    I have friends here in China ( aussies) that bought 6 homes and 11 pieces of farmland in 2009-2010 in the US. Cailfornia and Michigan mostly. I think they will be rewarded one day handsomely.

    Thank you for the thoughtful reply and illustration. Well done.

    Information like this is what I'm seeking.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    What about the donuts man, what about the price of donuts?

    Lucky me ,as I have stashed a few away in the cave.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Where in the USA is $2/gal milk? Haven't seen that in over 8 years.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭
    BJs sells it at $2.67 a gallon. Closest you will get to $2. Giant, Safeway, etc sell it at close to $4 here in Baltimore.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,393 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $2.99 is about the cheapest around Atlanta.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,660 ✭✭✭
    I suspect you will be proven correct on that, in fact - that was one of my justifications for pulling my retirement funds out when I did.

    Actually in January I took a loan out on my 401K. If you can afford the payments. It will be paid off in 5 years while paying myself 4.5% interest which should make the payoff sooner.
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Food and Dairy are subsided by good old Uncle Sam. Just think what the prices would be if they didn't try and keep it under control and handout products to the poor.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In certain parts of the country...you can purchase...i.e.---20-40 acre parcels of alfalfa producing cropland for +/-$2000/ACRE and net lease it for a 10% net return. And you still own the land.

    streeter, where is this?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Where in the USA is $2/gal milk? Haven't seen that in over 8 years. >>



    I was getting a gallon for 1.50 last year. Grains/meat/milk prices would be MUCH LOWER if the G ended subsidies and CRP.

    I agree with Streeter. Real estate in the USA is the cheapest on the planet. What a great time for the Canadians, Aussies, Europeans to come to America and buy. The USA is on sale. I tried to buy 50 acres of woodland last year for under 30k, but my bid was a few days late. Farms in my area routinely sell for $1000/acre. Thats why we have had about 20 Amish families more here in the past 3 years.

    But aside from that, the median price of an existing home in the US is 159k---same as late 2002. Thats less than 3x median income. Compare that to housing in Europe, Canada, Australia/New Zealand who are pretty much priced out of their own countries. Even Chinese real estate trades at 57x income--although that number is heavily skewed due to an incredible large population who makes very little.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The trend is your friend. Embrace it.



    << <i>if silver continues to rise, I will continue to sell >>



    I don't fault you for taking profit but I must ask, if it is still rising after you have eventually cashed out will you buy back in? >>



    Eventually image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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