Let the beatings begin!

piecesofme

Those of you not worried about it til Ag hits $22 might want to pay closer attention. Gotta go thru some stops on the way, but I think it's very possible. I'm not pounding the table or shouting out the window, yet...just saying be prepared for major moves downward in the very near future. Alll just a hunch on my part, but i'm going to go ahead and put it out there for scrutiny.
My old saying about it takes longer to fill a bathtub than to let all the water out could be starting to swirl, because I think the plug has been pulled.

pragmaticgoat

Adam Hamilton Link



I've read his essays for almost ten years; he's usually not too far off base

derryb

Is the overnight chart keeping you awake? Send my your "fire sale" prices.

sebrown

I purchased 20 SLV Oct 32 Puts today just as an insurance policy as I was feeling uneasy. Silver could definitely use a healthy correction. I also bought various other Puts on market indexes and individual stocks. At this moment, DOW futures are down 263. It appears it will be an ugly day tomorrow for longs.

CaptHenway

You may be right. There seems to be a flight to the dollar as the stock markets are getting killed all over the world, led by the Nikkei.

Also, many stock investors have a side portfolio in metals, and use that to cover margin calls.

Could get uglier than Charlie Sheen sober!!!!

jmski52

I would expect a rush to liquidity first. Also a rush out of nuclear energy-related businesses. After that, I expect all energy to get more expensive.

The dollar looks like a safe haven? You really think so? If you are the Japanese government, holding $800 billion in US debt, are you going to be buying more now? Japan already has the worst debt to GDP ratio of any industrial country. The question is, who and how is going to pay for the rebuilding?

I see dollar creation on the horizon, more now than ever. The dollar isn't being hurt by the Japan disasters. The dollar will be hurt by the Fed and the Administration. This is Chapter One in a brand-new fiasco.

All of the money in the world..............has to go "somewhere".

OPA

<< <i>Adam Hamilton Link



I've read his essays for almost ten years; he's usually not too far off base >>



He may be right on the nail...(Article written 3/11)

"The bottom line is silver looks to be topping based on bull-to-date precedent. The odds are very high that silver is in store for another one of its brutal and unforgiving corrections. These are dangerous events not to be trifled with, as silver tends to plummet by nearly a third in less than 6 weeks! Silver stocks usually amplify these losses. Traders caught unaware by a major silver correction are ripped to shreds."

jdimmick

Overdue sell off taking place today

derryb

Another buying opportunity is approaching.

hammered54

<< <i>Another buying opportunity is approaching. >>



I agree....a little put and take never hurt.

mhammerman

"The question is, who and how is going to pay for the rebuilding?"

Well, it' isn't likely going to be any of the BRICs or the mid-eastern chest thumpers rushing to the rescue and Vene doesn't have anything to give away so, it looks like the same ol' party: the Europeans/Canadians/Austrailians and the guy you keep seeing in the mirror every morning. This disaster they have been saddled with is just a terribly devestating turn of fate. They will need all the assistance and good wishes that we can muster on their behalf.

DoubleEagle59

Why is it when the PM price is at an all time high we wish for a major pullback in price?

And when it does happen , we worry and panic about where it will end up?

What is happening is only short term (everyone selling to buy 'safe' (HaHaHa) US dollars).

The major trend has not changed.

I guess it depends on your convictions and your investment time horizon.

Personally, I'm looking forward to buy more at about $28 an ounce.

57loaded

piecesofme

<<Why is it when the PM price is at an all time high we wish for a major pullback in price?

And when it does happen , we worry and panic about where it will end up?

What is happening is only short term (everyone selling to buy 'safe' (HaHaHa) US dollars).

The major trend has not changed.

I guess it depends on your convictions and your investment time horizon.

Personally, I'm looking forward to buy more at about $28 an ounce.>>

No worries here as I've been preparing for this and have sold off most of my PM holdings and I'm about 90-95% in cash right now. I want the whole market to tank so I can buy back in around $28 like you intend to and do it all over again. Whatever I do buy at a lower level wont be hold for more than 6 months absolute tops because you just can't trust this market. Continuing to add to what I had was foolish in my eyes because all I was doing is raising my cost avg.. Why in the heck do that when i can sell almost all of it here in the $30's (Ag obviously) for a very nice profit, be patient and add to the cash stash, then load up again when the time is right, wait for another run and sell it all again after holding no more than 6 months. THAT'S the trend!
I'm full aware it's not the popular "conviction" around these parts, but i'm sticking to what has been working for me.

Wingsrule

Continuing to add to what I had was foolish in my eyes because all I was doing is raising my cost avg

DCA going up is a good thing in my eyes. If your DCA is dropping, that means the value of the underlying instrument is dropping as well. Example: You buy 100 shares of XYZ at $35 per share. Your DCA is $35. Stock drops $7 to $28 and you buy another 100 shares. Your DCA is now $31.50 or a drop of 10% from your original purchase price. Overall, your position has a $700 loss.

On the other hand, if XYZ goes up to $42 and then you buy another 100 shares, your DCA is $38.50 but you have a $700 gain.

I'm not smart enough to time the market. I (very) recently sold some Pd and avoided today's ~$50 drop but I chalk that up to pure luck, not good planning on my part.

Applying my example to (my) real world - I would rather ride the wave down to $28 and continue buying on a regular basis (on the way down and the return trip up) rather than attempt any major market timing. Using that same $7 drop in silver spot, when you look at the $1.00 or so per ounce on both the sell and buy side, and give up 30-35% of the gains to Uncle Sam. And if it keeps dropping, just keep buying more.

mariner67

I feel sorry for those under the illusion that they can consistently time any market...especially PMs.
You can get lucky and do it now and then but on a regular basis?
Yeah, sure.

percyb

<< <i>I purchased 20 SLV Oct 32 Puts today just as an insurance policy as I was feeling uneasy. Silver could definitely use a healthy correction. I also bought various other Puts on market indexes and individual stocks. At this moment, DOW futures are down 263. It appears it will be an ugly day tomorrow for longs. >>

'

Might be a good time to sell puts now.

Bear

It is just my humble belief that PMs are no longer the way to go. Financial liquidity and green backs

seem to be the immediate wave of the future. We are in a most precarious period from a military, economic

and political stalemate, as well as massive unrest and turbulence. In such a situation, their is no place like the warm

and fuzzy softness of a balance of greenbacks. People are very funny creatures, they can change their mind in a flash,

go from inflationary to recessionary and with the growing fear of static employments, insanity of a sort may well rule the roost.

Their appears to be a growing madness to cling to security no matter what the cost of effort required. Fear, uncertainty, ominous philisophical

views as well as a growing stream of rigid , extremest and narrowing world outlook do not omen at all well for the immediate future wellbeing

of society.If this be viewd as a terse and morbid view of tommorrow, may heaven show me to be wrongand I will sing a Hallalulaj of great cheer and joy.