Advice on $20k in Silver

tander123

My dad knows I collect gold and silver. He called me today and wanted me to help him pick up $20k in silver. My questions are this:

Is now the time to buy silver or did you think there might be a short term pull back?
What is the best way to purchase $20k in physical silver? Junk? ASE's? Rounds? Bars? etc... Storage is not a problem
Any other advice?

Thanks in advance!

secondrepublic

No one has a crystal ball, but in general, I would not be buying an asset after it has had such a huge run up in price the last six months. Wait for a significant pullback.

derryb

<< <i>My dad knows I collect gold and silver. He called me today and wanted me to help him pick up $20k in silver. My questions are this:

Is now the time to buy silver or did you think there might be a short term pull back?
What is the best way to purchase $20k in physical silver? Junk? ASE's? Rounds? Bars? etc... Storage is not a problem
Any other advice?

Thanks in advance! >>


The problem with purchasing physical at a high is the logistics in selling it in a panic drop. My recommendation would be paper (easy in and easy out) and the kitco silver pool account is my favorite. I wouldn't put that much in physical unless I was sure it would continue to rise. We all know it's supported at current price but predicting the future, especially while at a high, is hard to do. You might consider half physical and half paper. Say what you will about paper silver but you can't beat it for ease of trading and quick in and outs. Kitco pool account has small spreads as well. I have done well with the pool account.

It's best to think of physical for the long, long haul - more like converting your savings to silver. If you go physical, silver eagles would be my first choice and they are cheapest by the monster box of 500 at Tulving.com. If I were going to sink 20K in physical right now I would be tempted to wait for a pull back.

gecko109

I like these alot!

Ciccio

I would do that slow and steady. You buy 3 ASE tubes now and keep stacking month after month (one tube and 1x10oz bar)
In this way you can average the price and make sure you don't miss any pullback in the next year.
JMHO

1jester

I wouldn't hesitate to convert paper (federal reserve toilet paper) into real money. If your dad has decided to protect his future in that way, 100% physical is the way to go. The recommended American Eagle silver one ounce coins are as good a way to go as any. Even if the paper market drops in the short-medium term (as no doubt there will be fluctuations), don't panic and dump the silver. Hold it for the longer term and I believe it's a sure winner. Good job on being an example for your dad.

tydye

I have been finding 96 ASE rolls lately at regular ASE price or just slightly higher ($1 more each). Seems like a safe purchase now. If silver goes up they obviously go up. If silver goes down I wold think they would hold their current value as a "key" coin for the series.


I had the same scenario about two months ago with my mother-in-law. I broke up the purchase over 8-10 weeks for her. At the time the silver was in the 26-30 range

Justacommeman

Much much does he already own in pm's?
How much of his liquid assets would this respresent? Does he plan on buying any more in the future?
Would he lose sleep if silver pulled back to $25 or $20?
Will he need to use/liquidate any of these 570 ounces over the next year? Three years? Five years? 10 years?

What is his reasoning for buying silver? Does he own any gold?

He needs to answer these questions IMHO.

MJ

PreTurb

Completely agree with MJ.

If he "has to have it", I like Tulving's half dollar bags, or ASE's.

tander123

<< <i>Much much does he already own in pm's?
How much of his liquid assets would this respresent? Does he plan on buying any more in the future?
Would he lose sleep if silver pulled back to $25 or $20?
Will he need to use/liquidate any of these 570 ounces over the next year? Three years? Five years? 10 years?

What is his reasoning for buying silver? Does he own any gold?

He needs to answer these questions IMHO.

MJ >>



He has about $15k in gold. Not sure about what percentage of liquid assets this would be. I will ask him about the losing sleep part tonight when I call hime (he currently is in Guatemala doing church service). I think this is a long term hold for him. I think he is worried about inflation.

Thanks to everyone for the advice! You guys are a wealth of information.
Terry

Justacommeman

If it's long term I would ease him into silver over the next six weeks to to three monrhs. Equal amounts of 90% and ASE's or quality rounds ( Prospector's come to mind). That would be my advise and JMHO. If he is still concerned about inflation and can handle the daily flucations then he can stack from there. MJ

57loaded

i like gecko's advice
also i'd look into '64 Kennedy's

i would not be concerned about a pull-back, if it is a long term purchase. i can only see the Au/Ag ratio shrinking, and Au going up with world inflation (IMHO) so "do the math" which i know you and your father can.

CaptMorgan

My take on silver: Buy Buy Buy I think silver has a lot of room to grow.

Heres how I view it:
Social unrest everywhere.
Oil prices shooting up with no end in sight.
Global food prices shooting up.
Governments all over the world falling.
China calling for attacks and an end to the Dollar as the worlds reserve currency.
Fear among the masses concerning global future.

I could go on and on. But you get the point.
Silver is a smart buy even at these levels.
If the dollar tanks, where will silver be priced?
I think anyone with 'extra' money should be buying silver and lots of it. I see $50-$65 shortly if things keep going this way.

I like 90% for my holdings, only because I like paying under spot and I am a coin collector first and foremost. Id go that way and maybe a few bars and ASE's.

derryb

Many buyers are failing to realize that a good portion of silver's climb in the last year is a direct result of the reduction in illegal price suppression due to the publicity and attention the short sellers brought on themselves. This has allowed silver to reach it's true market price which in turn has brought in a lot of speculators that may very well have driven it past its true market price. Do not be surprised to see the price level off and even drop when speculators move on to greener pastures. If the doubling in silver in the past year were due strictly to econ-political events/forecasts, gold would have seen a similar percentage increase.

gecko109

<< <i>Many buyers are failing to realize that a good portion of silver's climb in the last year is a direct result of the reduction in illegal price suppression due to the publicity and attention the short sellers brought on themselves. This has allowed silver to reach it's true market price which in turn has brought in a lot of speculators that may very well have driven it past its true market price. Do not be surprised to see the price level off and even drop when speculators move on to greener pastures. If the doubling in silver in the past year were due strictly to econ-political events/forecasts, gold would have seen a similar percentage increase. >>




Derry, what exactly are these "greener pastures" you speak of? With real estate possibly looking at another 10-20% haircut before the bottom is reached and muni and federal bonds losing cred with unreal amounts of debt stacking up at every level of government, I just dont see many "safe" opportunities. The stock market is just a big gamble and is probably ready for a mini crash soon anyway. Oil is a good investment, as long as you trust that the paper contracts will be honored during times of extreme duress. Silver/gold is about the only tangible asset that you can both own, and actually HOLD. 95% or greater of all financial instruments are either cash, or paper contracts. I, and millions others like me dont want anymore PAPER.

CaptMorgan

Very well said!

57loaded

i think he means greener pastures include things not of the 'commodity' realm, which there are myriad, let alone gold and silver

derryb

<< <i>Derry, what exactly are these "greener pastures" you speak of? >>


Speculators move into the fastest advancing investments. They are not looking for just gains, they are looking for huge gains. Many moved into silver, accelerating the price and will stay there as long as it continues with RAPID growth. There are so many derivative investment options out there today, including shorts and double, even triple shorts, that investment options are not just limited to corporate equities and real estate. IMHO the next big moves will be in oil, food and shorting bonds. When silver levels off and no longer offers huge gains, look for the speculators to move on. Investment capital alway goes where the projected gains are. This means it was removed from the previous big gainer in order to participate in the latest and greatest money maker. And make on mistake about it, Wall St. will continue to be creative with investment options that will provide new "greener pastures." The rapid advancement of ETFs is a prime example. Speculators make markets and they love paper, they can dump it as fast as they bought it. Don't be fooled into thinking that the rise in silver price is because investors want something they can hold. It is because they want something they can profit from and most silver investments are in the form of paper.

Silver is currently a great ride, I continue to make lots of money with it. I also continue to stack some of it for the long haul. But I refuse to be fooled into believing it will never end and remain vigilant with my investment, just as I was with dot-coms and real estate when they were the latest rage. As I stated earlier a lot of the price rise is a result of less manipulation. If those that wish to hammer the price of silver and gold can come up with a more clandestine way of doing it, look for them to do it.

roadrunner

<< <i>Many buyers are failing to realize that a good portion of silver's climb in the last year is a direct result of the reduction in illegal price suppression due to the publicity and attention the short sellers brought on themselves. This has allowed silver to reach it's true market price which in turn has brought in a lot of speculators that may very well have driven it past its true market price. Do not be surprised to see the price level off and even drop when speculators move on to greener pastures. If the doubling in silver in the past year were due strictly to econ-political events/forecasts, gold would have seen a similar percentage increase. >>



I'm not a soothsayer but I believe that silver is consolidating in this $32-$35 range for a move into the $40's by June. Whether it makes it to $48-$50 is another story. The half-way leg up was from $18 to $30. There's another "half-leg" to complete. "No one" expected $30 silver to come so quick once the $20-$21 barrier was left behind. It will likely be the same way with the $40 barrier. Yeah, it could go to $20 again on its way to $50+. I won't lose any sleep either way. I think the odds of $40 silver before $20-$25 are a lot greater.

Silver chart

A current back-test to $33 or so is certainly reasonable as it would close a pair of gaps on the hourly chart on the Monday and Tuesday opens. If it were already May or June I'd be a lot more leery about dumping money into silver or gold. April-May often tends to be stronger than March. So there is probably time here to think through a decision. Watch the charts, read some experts, and watch for a good buy-in point sometime by mid-March.

roadrunner

ksammut

Agree with RR. We will see $40+ over the next few months.

jmski52

I wouldn't hold out for much lower than $33.00, but I wouldn't feel bad about buying a green monster box of Silver Eagles from Tulving at these exact prices.

NumbersUsacom

When a 3 bdr 2 ba 1500 sq' house went from $85,000 to $140,000 who really thought that it would continue to $200,000 and then
who really thought it was it was possible to hit $300,000 and then on to $360,000. but they did.

When djia went from 770 to 3000 who really thought it would hit 7000 then 9000 then 11,000+ but it did

so whats the big deal if silver goes from 4.50 to 34.00, is it not possible to hit 50.00 again, or 75.00 or 125.00 or possibly $240.00+
If you wait for pullbacks you might be waiting till it completes its run and not catch it until its in free fall back to 5.00 then you might have to wait another
20 years to catch the next run.