<< <i>Prior to all the mayhem in Egypt, Libya i've been reading all the analysts and conspiracy theories talking about $50 silver this year due to all the many reasons we've heard about with Comex, shorting and hyper inflation.
Seems we have a lot of level headed experienced members here who keep a tighter perspective on the market without all of the reasons mentioned above, some mention selling off and a top off as of our highs this past week.
In the 3 step "bubble" process, where do you all think we are at 1, 2 or 3?
Do you predict the bubble phases to accelerate in 1 year or spread itself 2-5 years? >>
The PM market has a long way to go. Let me remind you that things are getting worse, not better. The cities are bankrupt, the states are bankrupts, and the nation is bankrupt. The end game is unfolding now....
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
There's a couple of interesting patterns going on suggesting a big breakout is coming in stocks (SP500) and metals.
The weekly gold chart now shows this attempt as the 4th attempt at breaking the $1410-1420 range. As we know, it is common for a market to "knock" 2 or 3 times on a resistance level before punching through it on the next attempt. So will this attempt be successful? And then consider...
Although market relationships have been unreliable, I still kind of think that SP500 and gold generally move together. This week we saw SP500 achieve a 38.2% retracement, possibly recharging that pattern for more upward movement. And why shouldn't it? The fed is juicing the markets for the next few months so to predict a drop at this point (like Ackerman) is probably not a very good call.
Then consider that the unrest in the middle east is getting worse, not better, and I think we have a recipe for higher metals prices.
<< <i>This week we saw SP500 achieve a 38.2% retracement, possibly recharging that pattern for more upward movement. >>
That's quite a drop.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
PC, this guy's charting is basically agreeing with your sentiments. The movement back in July-Sept closely mirrors the move so far from Jan-Feb. A move from here to $1500+ / $36+ would not surprise. Maybe a final head fake lower by gold and silver before heading into the $1430 / $34+ resistance range. Gold and silver are slowly creeping higher while giving the impression they could go bust. It would keep those riding the train to a minumum. I'm continuing to add worthy miners on pullbacks. There appears to be a lot of gold bugs on the sidelines waiting for a guaranteed drop to get back in....especially in the $1250-$1350 range. Gold might not oblige. Bullish sentiment is still only mid-range at best, and far from overbought. So many are waiting for the anticipated C leg down, that it may have already occurred. Place your bets and take your chances.
Clive picks up on much of the same things as the analyst above. However he is very concerned about the lousy action in miners last week. "She loves me, she loves me not." One possibility is that the rising price of oil and other commods, as well as geo-politicial risks, might be weighing heavy on the miners...especially on their cost per ounce. And let's face it, not all the miners came in with great earning's reports last week even with the pog $200 higher than the previous year. The miners could continue to consolidate while gold heads higher. Another point to mention with the miner chart he posts is that GDX pulled back to perfectly test that 50 dma line, something quite normal & expected after moving up for an entire month. A week's rest after that move would make sense, esp. after than hard bottom at the 200 dma back in January. The pullback to the 50 dma also mirrors the one from later December, in essence giving a double IH & S pattern. Whichever way she goes, she is gonna blow fairly soon. And if you look back to GDX in mid-August of last year, the volume action was almost just as miserable which left many behind as it slowly ran away. By the time the volume got even a bit optimistic GDX was long gone. Are these 2 recent bullish engulfing candles based on real market action or more the JPM induced naked short stop-running? All I know is that the famous H&S in gold has been debunked a lot more often than not over the past 2-1/2 yrs. But it helps sell a lot of subscriptions. Additional weakness in gold and miners can be expected in March due to seasonal trends, but not necessarily new lows. So I am anticipating another move down at some point....maybe a continuation from last week as that 50 dma GDX line is explored further while gold plays with the $1400-$1430 range.
It looks like Tuesday morning could be very decisive for the next trend direction. Tuesday has been a BIG day for the past few weeks. Nichols is expecting it to go down, but I'm leaning toward up. The tough thing is that gold is by no means overbought, but the uptrend does seem exhausted, if that makes sense. The next predicted top or bottom for gold is a bottom due Mar 23-24, so things are wide open as far as predicted dates.
Got near term silver target at $37.00, a crude target at $110, and gold target at 1422 - not sure about timing though.
Comments
<< <i>Prior to all the mayhem in Egypt, Libya i've been reading all the analysts and conspiracy theories talking about $50 silver this year due to all the many reasons we've heard about with Comex, shorting and hyper inflation.
Seems we have a lot of level headed experienced members here who keep a tighter perspective on the market without all of the reasons mentioned above, some mention selling off and a top off as of our highs this past week.
In the 3 step "bubble" process, where do you all think we are at 1, 2 or 3?
Do you predict the bubble phases to accelerate in 1 year or spread itself 2-5 years? >>
The PM market has a long way to go. Let me remind you that things are getting worse, not better. The cities are bankrupt, the states are bankrupts, and the nation is bankrupt. The end game is unfolding now....
Interesting how all 5 major metals have basically ended up right around where they were at the January 3rd peak.
Today's action basically returned gold and silver to a retest of the downtrend line that they had just recently broken out above.
roadrunner
We may even see some strong buying in Sydney and Hong Kong tonight.
My guy wouldn't honor the drop in after hours and has switched to using london fixed and more flexible (as he called it) premiums.
The weekly gold chart now shows this attempt as the 4th attempt at breaking the $1410-1420 range. As we know, it is common for a market to "knock" 2 or 3 times on a resistance level before punching through it on the next attempt. So will this attempt be successful? And then consider...
Although market relationships have been unreliable, I still kind of think that SP500 and gold generally move together. This week we saw SP500 achieve a 38.2% retracement, possibly recharging that pattern for more upward movement. And why shouldn't it? The fed is juicing the markets for the next few months so to predict a drop at this point (like Ackerman) is probably not a very good call.
Then consider that the unrest in the middle east is getting worse, not better, and I think we have a recipe for higher metals prices.
<< <i>This week we saw SP500 achieve a 38.2% retracement, possibly recharging that pattern for more upward movement. >>
That's quite a drop.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
PC, this guy's charting is basically agreeing with your sentiments. The movement back in July-Sept closely mirrors the move so far from Jan-Feb. A move from here to $1500+ / $36+ would not surprise. Maybe a final head fake lower by gold and silver before heading into the $1430 / $34+ resistance range. Gold and silver are slowly creeping higher while giving the impression they could go bust. It would keep those riding the train to a minumum. I'm continuing to add worthy miners on pullbacks. There appears to be a lot of gold bugs on the sidelines waiting for a guaranteed drop to get back in....especially in the $1250-$1350 range. Gold might not oblige. Bullish sentiment is still only mid-range at best, and far from overbought. So many are waiting for the anticipated C leg down, that it may have already occurred. Place your bets and take your chances.
Clive Maund on gold
Clive picks up on much of the same things as the analyst above. However he is very concerned about the lousy action in miners last week. "She loves me, she loves me not."
One possibility is that the rising price of oil and other commods, as well as geo-politicial risks, might be weighing heavy on the miners...especially on their cost per ounce. And let's face it, not all the miners came in with great earning's reports last week even with the pog $200 higher than the previous year. The miners could continue to consolidate while gold heads higher. Another point to mention with the miner chart he posts is that GDX pulled back to perfectly test that 50 dma line, something quite normal & expected after moving up for an entire month. A week's rest after that move would make sense, esp. after than hard bottom at the 200 dma back in January. The pullback to the 50 dma also mirrors the one from later December, in essence giving a double IH & S pattern. Whichever way she goes, she is gonna blow fairly soon. And if you look back to GDX in mid-August of last year, the volume action was almost just as miserable which left many behind as it slowly ran away. By the time the volume got even a bit optimistic GDX was long gone. Are these 2 recent bullish engulfing candles based on real market action or more the JPM induced naked short stop-running? All I know is that the famous H&S in gold has been debunked a lot more often than not over the past 2-1/2 yrs. But it helps sell a lot of subscriptions. Additional weakness in gold and miners can be expected in March due to seasonal trends, but not necessarily new lows. So I am anticipating another move down at some point....maybe a continuation from last week as that 50 dma GDX line is explored further while gold plays with the $1400-$1430 range.
Toby agrees
roadrunner
Got near term silver target at $37.00, a crude target at $110, and gold target at 1422 - not sure about timing though.