***FEBRUARY 2011 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
Posts: 6,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
This is a continuation of the monthly for discussing relatively short or near term movements in precious metals and related securities.
I'll post more later, but the indecisive PM market is making it difficult to trade. I remain in all-cash, waiting for the market to decide on a direction. With events in Egypt, I think shorting gold for anything more than a few hours (and even then) to be extremely risky. Palladium is hanging out well near decade-highs.
I'll post more later, but the indecisive PM market is making it difficult to trade. I remain in all-cash, waiting for the market to decide on a direction. With events in Egypt, I think shorting gold for anything more than a few hours (and even then) to be extremely risky. Palladium is hanging out well near decade-highs.
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I side with this guy as far as where gold is at and what's coming next. I'm looking for a potential rise to $1362 to fill a GLD gap. Note that today GDXJ rose enough to fill its gap from about 2 weeks ago. GDX has touched that same area on its chart 3 times now in the past 5 days. SLV came within 10c today in closing its gap. GLD still has the furthest to go since it's been the laggard of the group. The author doesn't rule out that the $1310 area could be challenged again in the coming weeks. The chart is a week old so his #5 point has been reached. My only concern with the wave count is that it doesn't work this cleanly with GDX which seems to be short a leg in the last series down.
The stock market did good today despite it being a non-POMO day. Things pick up again on Thursday-Monday with 3 large POMO's in a row ($6-9 BILL per day).
gold to silver ratio
Gold to silver ratio has taken an abrupt turn at around 50 and pulled all the way back into the 46's. The weekly momentum has necked over. Is that all there is?
USDollar looking terrible and flirting with the 77 line. Normally gold would have flown in this environment. But previous periods where the dollar and gold both declined together lasted 1-2 months. This one getting long in the tooth. Dollar now testing its critical 3 yr uptrend line. Butit does look like it could have completed an ABC down now.
USDollar monthly chart
Edit: Gofo rates opened up at a new cycle low Wed. am. That's a bearish tint to the above analysis. Maybe another recheck of the $1310-$1325 range coming this week.
roadrunner
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Don't fight the fed!
Of course he was an old country gentleman from the hills of North Carolina, and he was talking about a different group of Feds, but the sentiment remains the same.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
So this is my call for the next few days, let's see what happens. I will be shorting gold at 1365, but ready to cover on any show of strength through this level.
USD not looking good at all, but it doesn't matter. There is NO tradeable correlation to gold right now.
Stocks looking good, the Fed's POMO continues to juice the markets.
A good refresher article on the gold bottoms put in early in most years on a 12.5 month cycle. Interestingly, the current one points to PC's Feb 8th time frame, though the analyst suggests a few weeks either side could occur. Also note that intermediate gold bottoms tend to occur every 20-25 weeks (twice per year). The last one in late July took 25 weeks to happen. The current one has just ticked off 26 weeks. The end of the cycle is close at hand or already here. It may also suggest that the next short term low in gold will be higher than the $1307 price from last week.
roadrunner
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>think i'll step away from metals for a quick short on bonds with TBT. It has developed a nice up trend recently. >>
This TLT is breaking down. I wanted to short these suckers over 100 but never pulled the trigger. Bernake is clueless...f$ckin everything up....
It should be noted that we're adding a trillion dollars to the deficit on interest alone every 15 months .
<< <i>think i'll step away from metals for a quick short on bonds with TBT. It has developed a nice up trend recently. >>
I sold half of my TBT on Friday. Still love the trade. Yes, the chart has been setting up nicely.................my favorite trades are when fundies and technicals align.This is at the top of the list.............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
"SHANGHAI—China is building strategic reserves in rare-earth metals, an effort that could give Beijing increased power to influence global prices and supplies in a sector it already dominates.
Details of the stockpiling plans haven't been made public. But the outlines of the effort have emerged in recent statements from Chinese government agencies, state-controlled companies and reports in government-run media. The reports say storage facilities built in recent months in the Chinese province of Inner Mongolia can hold more than the 39,813 metric tons China exported last year.
China controls more than 90% of current global supply of rare-earth metals."
My favorite plays in this market are MCP, REMX, AVL and REE.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
More evidence on the short side of gold is that stocks continue to grind higher, and it looks like the trend will continue as the fed keeps pumping up the markets. And while the markets continue to grind, it is apparent that money is flowin out of "safe" assets such as bonds and maybe even PMs, and flowing into stocks. Even crude is doen a few dollars in the last few days even though the Egyptian situation is far unresolved.
But I won't rule out a surge in gold, some are seeing near-term targets near 1380. I remain on the sidelines playing only very short-term moves.
Spike in GDXJ:SPY volume might be indicative of topping action in the juniors. Many bounced up nicely today...but many didn't. With this $10 move in gold it's surprising to see the broad CDNX index down. That's unexpected. Usually that huge index is very slow moving and very reliable in identifying broad PM movements. It's made 3 nice uplegs of 10-15 days each since the November bottom, but on declining momentum. The CDNX has run up strongly without hardly pausing since July and appears to have essentially completed 5 waves over 6-1/2 months. Hard to say though. There still might be one last mini-leg up left in there. Update: CDNX tweeked out a very slight 0.25% gain by the end of the day. Still, hardly compelling. The volume spike today is reminiscent of the tops that occured in Nov, Dec, and January. Just sayin.
CDNX ventures index
Most of the senior miners look very sluggish today which is not a very bullish indication. A number of the commods (energy, softs, grains) have moved down the past several days. Again, not the most bullish situation to help push the metals. Interesting 5 wave broadening top (megaphone) in the gold to oil ratio with rapidly declining volume. Wouldn't be surprised if that shifts hard the other way now.
GSR intraday touched the 44's. Incredible strength on silver's part. If GDX can break above 58 and take out the swing high from a few weeks ago (also the 50 dma) that could be pretty bullish. GDXJ and SLV have already done that. With Nasdaq (QQQQ) now forming a broadening top and Transports barely bouncing, there's not a lot of support for the S&P other than POMO ($6-$9 BILL on 7th, 9th and 10th this week).
Nice bounce in PM's the past couple of weeks. But I'm leaning towards that coming to an end, at least in the very short term. For those calling for a cycle bottom today, maybe it's actually a cycle top...?? I've seen a number of analysts calling for a cycle changed by the 7th, now gone. I'm also seeing new lows in Gofo rates and 10/2 yr TBond rate ratio sort of hinting at least that there is still inherent weakness to shed in gold. But like PC says, you never know. Buy low and sell higher is the only thing that really works.
roadrunner
But you never know.
Edited to add:
Is it true that you can redeem GLD shared for gold? I didn't think so. Does anyone think this article is legit?
Massive Chinese Gold Buying through GLD
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a clause in there now that says they could pay off in Comex contracts or some other non-gold replacement if there was a force-majeure. And if they haven't made those changes yet, it will probably eventually happen. It's already stated in Comex legalese that GLD shares are a suitable pay-off for Comex Gold contract delivery. Then one has to wonder what big shareholders like Paulson and Soros would do? I suspect that they have special arrangements in place that protect their capital. In any case the custodian clearly says they aren't responsible if the physical gold isn't all there....that's the "problem" of the sub-custodians.
The only thing we know for sure, is that someday this whole accounting mess for physical gold is going to end badly. Robbing Peter to pay Paul only works for so long.
roadrunner
44.97
This small royalty explorer has been conveniently avoiding it's very obvious December gap for quite some time unlike most other miners than have already moved down to fill any outstanding holes formed during 4th quarter breakouts. This doesn't include miners that reported large increases in reserves or ripe takeover candidates. I think that the next leg down in the miners should allow this to fill. A retest down to the 3.0 level would act as both a retest of the Dec 2010 breakout and the October 2008 breakdown. In December it broke out of a 2-1/2 yr consolidation triangle. It's currently well supported by its 50 dma. XPL has advanced mineral projects with partners such as Votorantim Metais, Buenaventura, Anglo Platinum and Newmont Mining. I don't currently own any shares but have owned some in the past.
I found this stock interesting because of the stubborness of that gap to fill. Interesting to watch if nothing else. Few miners are left that have retained such a large gap for this long. XPL completed 5 legs down in its A leg and has been moving sideways in a B. It's only a matter of time imo when the C is more definable, if not in progress already. In the back of my mind I've been thinking for weeks that when that XPL gap finally fills it might be the end of the downturn. JAG has continued to slide the past week which didn't give me a lot of confidence in the miners either. But in all fairness it reported a 20% stock dilution offering on Feb 3rd and has only fallen 10% so far. Along with that it has forecasted continuing production shortfalls into 2011 (not unexpected). And unless the Mexican govt/army eventually gets their act together, Mexican miners will have to budget for a private company/batallion to keep the drug lords at bay.
CDNX moving down more sharply today. Much more of this and a new down leg for miners will be confirmed. Darling Northern Dynasty (NAK) hadn't seen a significant down day since July as it powered up from 6 to 22 this month. But today's initial 16% hit might mean the run for juniors is stalled for a while when the leading darling might be turning south. Like Novagold they have ounces in the ground on par with most larger seniors.
Looking like XAU and HUI want to retest round numbers at 200 / 500. GLD has a gap that equates to $1350.
roadrunner
The thing is, stocks (SP500) looks really good right here and is loaded with energy. It's ready to go. Gold charts are also ready to go. My question is if they will take off in the same direction or not. I am pretty confident SP500 is ready to climb, and a few months ago that would have meant gold is ready to go as well. Not so certain now.
I'll be watching for a head-fake, patience will be key to hopping on the next trend. Which according to EW theory, *should* be down and projects to 1260. If my assessment of the parabolic move being over is correct, then this will become obvious really soon and 1260 is only the start. However, some analysts are still looking for a bounce at ~1290.
There's a couple of conflicting points to consider here...
--I'm having a hard time assessing sentiment. There are the long-term bulls, of which I am one of them, and then there are the scared gold-bandwagon that is pessimistic right now. But it's moved sideways for so long that I think sentiment may be neutral. So this is non-conclusive for me.
--It does seem that physical supplies are still low, particularly in silver. Record ASE sales continue.
--Money does seem to be going from "safe" (bonds, gold) to "more risky" (stocks), and will probably weigh on gold.
--Signs of inflation are becoming more apparent and more people are paying attention.
--The Egypt situation may get better soon as Mubarak is rumored to be stepping down. This will probably weigh against gold, unless the transition doesn't go well. Perhaps the Egypt situation has buoyed gold and kept it from dropping when it "should have" the last couple of weeks.
I'm still sitting in cash.
Hoye's proprietary forecaster marker for massively overbought markets triggered on 12/31/10. He anticipates an "all markets" blow out anytime between now and the end of March. I know Downey and others are looking for the next intermediate bottom in gold to occur in March. Hoye's 5 previous forecaster highs lead to market blowouts an average of 2.6 months following the peak. This is the first time he calls an "all one market" to take the hit.
Looking at the totality of the charts for gold, silver, copper, oil, coal, uranium, rare earths, grains, softs, and ags I don't get a bullish feeling. Still seems like a short term rebound that is losing steam. But in headfakes, that's exactly the feeling that the players want you to have.
Gold/$USBond ratio often tracks gold moves and this is just bouncing up towards the last high. A real test of the 200 dma hasn't really occured yet. The rate of change on the gold/silver ratio has flattened out at -9%, a level that often marks bottoms. Same comment for HUI/Gold ratio at +5% roc. The 10yr/2yr bond ratio rate continues to point down but one interesting fact is that ratio is now 20% < 200 dma, the lowest it's been in years, including the June 2008 bottom.
USERX turned down before being able to give a short term buy signal this week. In counting the waves down over the past few months it still seems to point to at least a higher low still coming. The rebounds today in GDX and GDXJ were impressive giving hope that the last few days were just another shakeout and not a new downtrend of a C wave. One thing for sure is that GLD and SLV have some hourly opening gaps remaining a little bit lower than today's lowest levels. GLD came within a few tenths of making that fill...SLV has a bit further to dig. XAU got within 2 pts today of closing that gap at 200 that I mentioned earlier. So I suspect we'll get these slightly lower moves soon just to close these out. CDNX closed slightly down today but more of an indecision doji. $1348 gold, XAU 200, HUI 510, GLDX at 17.0 would work to close all those gaps. After gap filling gold and silver might be good to head up again as it seems 50/50 from here whether we head up or down. Like PC, I'm sort of waiting. Though I was bit miffed I didn't have the guts today to buy some GDXJ into the bottom and ride an easily overbought move right back up. But I expect those same lows from this morning will be back shortly. But on the potentially bullish side, GDX/GDXJ and GLD could be marking out higher right shoulders in yet another symmetrical IH&S formation.
BVN and JAG were getting enticing at their low levels today. But it seems their own stock markets (EPU for Peru, BRF for Brazil) are driving them down much the same way the S&P500 tends to do to the more diversified miners. Once EPU and BRF have bottoms in place those 2 miners might finally get some traction.
roadrunner
<< <i>
There's a couple of conflicting points to consider here...
--I'm having a hard time assessing sentiment. There are the long-term bulls, of which I am one of them, and then there are the scared gold-bandwagon that is pessimistic right now. But it's moved sideways for so long that I think sentiment may be neutral. So this is non-conclusive for me.
--It does seem that physical supplies are still low, particularly in silver. Record ASE sales continue.
--Money does seem to be going from "safe" (bonds, gold) to "more risky" (stocks), and will probably weigh on gold.
--Signs of inflation are becoming more apparent and more people are paying attention.
--The Egypt situation may get better soon as Mubarak is rumored to be stepping down. This will probably weigh against gold, unless the transition doesn't go well. Perhaps the Egypt situation has buoyed gold and kept it from dropping when it "should have" the last couple of weeks.
I'm still sitting in cash. >>
Gov bond rates have been moving up on the 5 10 and 30 year ones.
gold chart
Note that in any of the corrections over the past few years that gold put in at least a pair of green candles on a rebound. In this current bounce there is only one so far. The Renko GLD chart using closing values shows a similar type of pattern, however the blocks are time independent.
Renko chart
An interesting mix of events this week. Heavy POMO action this week with 3 days of $6-$9 BILL each...Tuesday, Thurs, Friday. Options expiration on Friday often tends to hit the gold and silver mining stocks that Thursday or Friday. Hmm, full moon on Friday too. No bond sales this week, though they return next week (Tues-Thurs) along with Wed gold futures expiration. Miners reporting earnings this week starting tommorow include paas, hl, aem, kgc, abx, ng, au, ego, gfi. Most of the other gold heavies report next week Mon-Wed. Took a position on BVN on the drop yesterday but closed that out today. Maybe a good idea based on today's closing 16-20 day USERX/GDX back indexes (see below) and with options expiration influences only 3 days away.
USERX closed above it's levels from 16-20 days ago (Jeff Kern's SKI system). That generates a sell signal on this current 3 week run up. A move back down below the last 16-20 daily closes will generate another buy signal. But that 16-20 back day index will fall sharply from 18.0 to 16.9 over the next 2 weeks so the current closing price will have some work to do to drop ahead of it to generate a new buy signal. It will probably take 2-4 weeks or longer before one could expect to generate another intermediate term 35-39 day SKI index buy signal. For now the 16-20 day signal suggests that the current short term USERX move has run out of gas. Note that USERX is a mix of miners, not bullion. 2 different animals. The importance of the SKI system is that it has 35 yrs of data trends behind it. It's sometimes late or early, but usually never out to lunch.
roadrunner
gold/silver ratio is 44.57 at the moment... you selling silver like crazy??? [you said 45 was the selling point]
Of an interesting note, crude has broken through a trendline to the downside possibly signaling more downside there, and gold and crude tend to move the same direction, although I am not relying any any gold relationships at the moment. Stocks (SP500) still look good and are likely to continue having a great week.
<< <i>cohokd (and others),
gold/silver ratio is 44.57 at the moment... you selling silver like crazy??? [you said 45 was the selling point] >>
I sold most of mine based on their advice. I needed cash too
Crude has me puzzled, especially with the huge $15 gap between Brent and WTIC. Tracking WTIC to gold may not be accurate for the time being since much of the world has shifted to pricing crude contracts in Brent vice WTIC. Maybe someone well versed in oil trading can provide more info.
roadrunner
At first thought and after reading the article, it looks like there isn't enough wti to drive the numbers so Brent is taking the role.
Many traders of Crude Oil futures have been shaking their heads in disbelief, as the price spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil futures has moved to a shocking $16.00 Brent premium over the WTI contract in the lead month contracts. First, a bit of background on the two types of Crude. WTI Crude Oil is viewed as the "benchmark" for the North American Crude Oil market. Brent Crude Oil, or North Sea Brent Crude, is known as the European "benchmark' grade. Normally, WTI Crude should trade at a slight premium to Brent due to its lower sulfur content, which makes this grade more desirable for the refining of gasoline. However, the delivery point for the NYMEX WTI futures in Cushing, Oklahoma is nearing capacity, as oil continues to flow into storage there. This has been the major reason cited by many traders and analysts for the "disconnect" between these similar "benchmark" Oil futures products. The political situation in Egypt has helped Brent Crude Oil trade at over $100 per barrel, as traders fear any possible disruptions of Oil moving through the Suez-Mediterranean or "Sumed" Pipeline, which transports Oil through Egypt en route to ports on the Mediterranean Sea, as well as Oil shipments through the Suez Canal. Though there have been no reported disruptions so far, some traders fear that we may see further political upheaval in other nations in the Middle East and North Africa, where huge amounts of Oil are exported. Given the "supply" issues currently seen in Cushing, Oil traders also may want to watch the Brent Crude Oil futures market along with the WTI futures to get a "clearer" picture of current traders' views on the direction of Crude Oil prices.
Consecutive days of gap up openings in GDX and GDXJ with generally sluggish action would seem to imply those gaps will be filled by Friday. But bad move in selling out of my BVN yesterday. Some nice hits today to the uraniums, coppers, and ags.
roadrunner
<< <i>cohokd (and others),
gold/silver ratio is 44.57 at the moment... you selling silver like crazy??? [you said 45 was the selling point] >>
I am not a buyer of silver at this ratio. Doesnt necessarily mean silver goes lower (although it has in the past), but could also indicate that gold outperforms silver. Either gold goes up move, or down less.
The dollar may be losing some competition. I believe the YEN comprises 16% of the dollar basket. Inflation would be welcomed news in Japan. The NIKKEI may be making a massive double bottom. Is the 20yr year bear dying?
25 year YEN chart.
Zoomed in to show last 5 years..
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Newer short term highs for gold and silver, and the miners moved up to reach their highs from last week and mid-January once again....but generally on lowering momentum and volume all around. Not a good sign heading into stock market options expiration Friday and gold/silver/copper future's expiration next Wednesday.
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Updated for Thurs am: Despite bullion prices up $250 in the last year which significantly boosted revenues, both Kinross and AEM indicated increasing material, energy, and labor costs weighed on profits. Both fell short of projections and are slightly down in overnight trading. Barrick exceeded its estimates. The increasing costs issues continue to hamper the producers such that the anticipated leverage in the sector is not quite there.
roadrunner
On one hand, gold is on a 16 day run that's taken it up from ~1310 to 1385, so I've got to think it's almost ready for a break.
On another hand, silver is breaking out to new 30year highs, and Palladium's at some good 10-year highs
On another hand, stocks are almost done for a while as the patterns are exhausted. Friday should be a good day, but the next two weeks don't look good for stocks.
On another hand, the sentinment on gold is still bearish, which is very bullish.
On another hand, GLD holdings have had a significant decline, and open interest in gold futures is also quite low. This scenario often preceeds reversals.
On another hand, this is about the point where in the past I would now become convinced to flip from bearish to bullish, only to have things turn around and lose money again.
There is an upside target for gold at ~1395.
While I've always tended to try and place gold and silver charts in the same time frame and cycles, it just may not be the case. Looking back at the weekly chart after bottoming out in the fall of 2008, it took silver another 6 months more than gold to complete an ABC correction. It may indeed be still be aiming at $33-$35 in a wave 5 up. GSR now in the 42's.
Silver chart
Gold chart
roadrunner
There was a gold bottom "scheduled" for yesterday or today but I don't really see it, unless it is coming a day or two late (Mon or Tues), or perhaps we did have it and there will be large up-moves coming. There's another bottom "scheduled" for Feb 24, so I would take that to mean that if there is a down move on Monday, it will be swift and HUGE going into Thurs. Overall though, the next down move (if it comes) should last about a month, when the next low is "scheduled" for March 23-24. But perhaps the down move will be just as muted as the move up, as I think there are still lots of investors buying up any dips.
Nichols is convinced based on cycle timing that Mon/Tues will be the start of a huge drop. And if you look at my gold chart below, it would appear just using the Parabolic SAR analysis that this move is almost done... unless it is like a couple of the previous moves where it just kept going and going. It's just hard to to be excited with the new 30-year highs being smashed in silver... but then I think silver might be doing it's own thing, and as RR said, it it probably dragging gold up with it.
I think patience and waiting and watching is probably smart here... but oh so difficult.
What bothers me is that the January bottom coincided well with the 6 month cycle that gold bottoms have been running on. Besides Nichols, Edelson, Hibbert and others are still looking for that return to the $1200's within the month. As I've said before, it seems to be best to buy extreme weakness and then just hang on through all the noise and BS. Listening to anything usually gets you tossed off in short order. I linked the GDX chart below to compare this past 4 week period to the first 4 weeks of the late July-August 2010 recovery. In essence they are identical except for the volume which declined during the start of this recent run. But the volume last August was basically flat like it was trying to hide clues about the run up. Both periods ran up to above the 50 dma and hit the upper Bollinger Band, then retested the 50 dma shortly thereafter. Something to watch for. Mid last August I was waiting for another "hit" that really never came. This feels much the same already.
GDX chart comparison
Markets closed in US and Canada on Monday. Should make for an interesting Tuesday when they open <24 hrs from gold/silver/copper futures options expiration. On the plus side are heavy POMO days on this coming Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday....the same schedule we had this past week that seemed to keep things afloat during SM options expiration week. I keep on reading that you don't fight the FED. And $20-$25 BILL per week in POMO is a tough nut.
roadrunner
Things could escalate quickly in the price of PM's, oil, and foods if things turn the wrong way in Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. Clive Maund suggests that this could be the catalyst to finally shoot down the stock market. Charts and perfectly timed cycles break down when world events all of a sudden go off the map. If the SM takes a hit one would expect a rebound in TBonds and the dollar while probably maintaining strength in PM's. Maund suggests hanging on to miners in this scenario. I don't know. Every significant downturn in stocks and uptrend in the dollar has tended to take down the miners, regardless if gold is doing ok. But at some point, soon or otherwise, gold miners will start acting more like gold than stocks.
Update for Monday am: gold close to filling the gap that equated to GLD of 138 ($1411+)....now falling back < $1400....but the GLD gap still technically open due to Monday being a holiday for GLD. Copper-plat-pall, grains, S&P futures, and the dollar falling off sharply as well. Oil dropped back $2. Interesting 24 hours of options expiration dead ahead. On the NYSE open uranium-copper-plat miners and ags all hit hard. Gold miners showing a number of doji's and shooting stars so far. Looking like a sharp 3rd wave down in progress in most metals and ags.
roadrunner
roadrunner
<< <i>Last higher up GLD gap (137.9 from January 3rd) now officially closed with today's move up to $1414. Now what? Moves to new all time high or fill some lower gaps now sitting at 133, 135, and 136?
roadrunner >>
Many of us thought this prolonged pause would lead to a slightly lower drop in gold to the 1250-1350 range. I will be pleasantly
suprised if gold shoots up to 1,500/oz within a month. If it does, we'll start telling ourselves that it will only have further and harder to fall.
Posting this here because of the chart...
SP500 seems to be in the middle of a badly-needed retracement. Silver had a bit of a pullback but not 38.2% so that was just volatility.
It seems I keep getting killed no matter what I do, not sure what to do here. Afraid to get long because it's likely to be topped out at these levels, afraid to go short because who-knows what will cause gold and crude to jump 10% instantly.
<< <i>
It seems I keep getting killed no matter what I do, not sure what to do here. Afraid to get long because it's likely to be topped out at these levels, afraid to go short because who-knows what will cause gold and crude to jump 10% instantly. >>
Stop trading. That's my suggestion. The long term trend is up. Buy on pullbacks. JMHO.
<< <i>
Stop trading. That's my suggestion. . >>
Easily said, hard to do for some. Just buy physical with that play money.
Here's some interesting words from TF's blog about silver. And it brings up some good points. And if silver eventually goes this way the other metals can't be far behind, at least in spirit. It might bring a whole new meaning to producing or near-producing means vs. GLD.
At some point in March or May or July of this year, the Comex will default. Whether or not its a de facto default is of no matter for this discussion. At some point soon, "paper" silver will cease to be a actual asset. Paper silver only has value because it is perceived to be backed by some measure of physical. A Comex failure will, inevitably, lead to a failure of all paper metal assets. Everything from futures and options on futures to ETFs, both the SLV kind and the AGQ format.
So, three questions:
1) Do you accept this general thesis?
2) What is the trigger point for liquidating all paper metal? It can't be at default because, by then, it will be too late.
3) If you can't exchange into physical because of lack of supply, what do you buy? I say non-hedged, junior miners. What do you say?
AUY came out with an excellent earnings report last night. Newmont's was good but it projected lower gold production in 2011 which might temper it for a while. GSS came out with a stinker losing $8 MILL. last qtr. with gold at all time highs. Their cash costs per ounce continue to rise ($766 last yr and estimated to $800-$850 next yr). That's the 2nd or 3rd lousy report in a row. A number of miners are not having much success in keeping their cash costs down. IAG headed down today so I'm guessing a less than stunning earinings report before Friday's market open.
roadrunner
Seems we have a lot of level headed experienced members here who keep a tighter perspective on the market without all of the reasons mentioned above, some mention selling off and a top off as of our highs this past week.
In the 3 step "bubble" process, where do you all think we are at 1, 2 or 3?
Do you predict the bubble phases to accelerate in 1 year or spread itself 2-5 years?
CU Ancient Members badge member.
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I don't usually make mental notes of cash costs unless they are outside the norm. Goldenstar's was not good and one of the reasons it took a beating today. With rising oil, electricity, water, materials, and supply prices, one can only expect rising miner cash per ounce costs. Did note that Yamana came in with a -$34 net gold cash cost (geo) for the qtr (+$50/yr) when they offset with their copper sales. Best I could find was that their annual gold equivalent cost was $633/oz. Goldcorp came in at $169 net/by-product gold cash cost or $461/oz co-product. Gold margin on a by-product basis was $1214/oz. Couldn't help but notice the $61 MILL derivatives loss as well as $219 in currency exchange losses. $1.32 BILL in revenue was whittled down to $117 MILL in earnings from continuing operations. Goldcorp was part of today's downdraft but got it all back after hours when earnings were released. The report was basically positive.
My gut feel for the miners and with gold and silver is to new higher levels though with plenty of shaking out to keep the minimum number of hands onboard. There seems to be a shakeout nearly every day...today included. The multi-headed top in gold from Oct-Dec still seemed like a stepping-stone rather than a final top. The cup and handle that gold formed this week is projecting to $1433. Platinum is working on the handle of a large cup formed since last summer as well as a smaller one formed from Nov-January. Both are projecting to $2000/oz.
roadrunner
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It seems I keep getting killed no matter what I do, not sure what to do here. Afraid to get long because it's likely to be topped out at these levels, afraid to go short because who-knows what will cause gold and crude to jump 10% instantly. >>
Stop trading. That's my suggestion. The long term trend is up. Buy on pullbacks. JMHO. >>
Every trader that has been around the block has experienced cold periods, when it seems like a few seconds after the trade, the trade starts against them. Many will trade smaller and smaller as they get colder and colder. Taking a break for a day, or a week or whatever is sometimes a way to get better perspective. Those that take a break often scale back in, small and slow, with high percentage plays, to build up some confidence again.