Gold seen at $1,500 in first quarter

goingbroke · January 16, 2011 1:42AM

Gold is likely to reach $1,500 per ounce in the first quarter, and then may retreat if the market expects central banks to exit quantitative easing, according to Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG. In the long term, as inflation entered a new era, gold might rise above $2,000 in the next 5 to 10 years, he said.
The rally in precious metals is likely to move in a narrow band next week

1970SilverArt · January 16, 2011 2:47AM

It would not surprise me to see $1500 (or more) gold this year but I seriously doubt that the Fed will exit quantitative easing anytime soon (if ever). I see more money printing, more Federal deficits, higher national debt this year.

OPA · January 16, 2011 3:52AM

<< Gold is likely to reach $1,500 per ounce in the first quarter, and then may retreat if the market expects central banks to exit quantitative easing, according to Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG. In the long term, as inflation entered a new era, gold might rise above $2,000 in the next 5 to 10 years, he said.
The rally in precious metals is likely to move in a narrow band next week >>

Don't "hold your breath" waiting for it to happen in the first quarter.

roadrunner · January 16, 2011 4:10AM

With the way the gold chart looks, it will be lucky enough to be above $1400 come end of March. How a Credit-Suisse analyst would be calling for $1500 seems to be a stretch, unless CS is shorting gold. But it's certainly possible gold turns back up this week.

The short term call of $1397 is also taking quite a flyer in light of the way the current chart is looking. The whole commodity sector is sort of teetering right now at a peak.

roadrunner

renman95 · January 16, 2011 5:30AM

Wasn't yesterday the day Sinclair bet that gold would reach $1,650? A miilion dollar bet that no one took, I think.

gsa1fan · January 16, 2011 7:52PM

<< With the way the gold chart looks, it will be lucky enough to be above $1400 come end of March. How a Credit-Suisse analyst would be calling for $1500 seems to be a stretch, unless CS is shorting gold. But it's certainly possible gold turns back up this week.

The short term call of $1397 is also taking quite a flyer in light of the way the current chart is looking. The whole commodity sector is sort of teetering right now at a peak.

roadrunner >>

RR, short or long term peak?

jdimmick · January 16, 2011 9:18PM

I dont see it happening, in fact I wouldnt be surprised of a touch too the mid 1250-1275 range in the next 2 months?

goingbroke · January 16, 2011 9:45PM

<< I don't see it happening, in fact I wouldn't be surprised of a touch too the mid 1250-1275 range in the next 2 months? >>

We can only wish! I would buy more gold BIG TIME if this kind of drop happens!

OPA · January 16, 2011 10:56PM

<< 

<< I don't see it happening, in fact I wouldn't be surprised of a touch too the mid 1250-1275 range in the next 2 months? >>

We can only wish! I would buy more gold BIG TIME if this kind of drop happens! >>

Dust of your check book...Believe it or not, even PM's have an occasional 15 -20% correction.

roadrunner · January 17, 2011 12:23AM

short or long term peak?

Short to intermediate term. Still seems to me that another higher leg is coming in 2011. This last series of peaks didn't end in the typical blow off style that has characterized gold the past 5 yrs. Nothing with the debt, derivatives, and monetary issues has yet been resolved.

roadrunner

mhammerman · January 17, 2011 2:01AM

Well, you can do your charts and you can do your fundamentals but my spidey sense tells me that while gold might hit 15 or go over, it is likely to do well to hold 14 for the nearer term. There's lots of prognosticators and lots of guessers but I wouldn't go leaping out into the unknown, betting on the come as it were. Not that one should be overly conservative but holding what you got or maybe bleeding off a little $12 silver or $800 gold isn't all bad but you got here buying when ever you had the cash so why change horses now? Buying in when you have a little spare cash isn't a bad thing...neither gold or silver ever goes to 0, unlike GM.

Caution is always advised but us, not being flippers, the daily ebb and flow doesn't much affect us. Remember, we're jerks. They say that the price of world situations and potential situations is already cooked into the price of gold...yeah, sure. Edited to add...On second thought, you better keep what ya' got and not be bleedin' any off. It will be interesting to see if the USD survives on the international trade market in its current form for the rest of the year.

Got CASH?

johnny9434 · January 17, 2011 3:47AM

that wouldnt surprise me in the least bit with the weak dollar and all

57loaded · January 17, 2011 6:28AM

i am in the club of seeing gold moving down to $1260-ish, first. but it has to break off the $1320 ledge

too much euphoria and kool-aid being drunk right now.

yet i think this is worst case scenario right now and more believable than a jump back up and over to $1500 this Qtr (IMHO)

gsa1fan · January 17, 2011 6:58AM

I do not see why price is dropping?

AUandAG · January 17, 2011 10:09AM

<< I do not see why price is dropping? >>

Gold is a commodity, much like wheat and corn. Profit is made in commodities just
like anything else, on the swings.
Right now the stock market is on an upswing and more money is going into the stocks
than into commodities like gold. Investors are seeing more opportunity to buy stocks
and sell gold.
I think that $1150 by July is not out of the question. But, maybe gold is not a fad and
will actually bounce back quickly.
We'll see.

bob

PS: just my little brains' take. I don't follow the pundits. Well maybe Brian a little bit!
Not much though as I sold him a bunch at $750 (didn't pay much attention did I Brian?)

renman95 · January 17, 2011 11:43AM

Until I see this new Tea-Party infused Congress making some REAL fiscal changes there's no reason why gold will not trend much higher.

We've passed $14T and started the current reign at $10.6T. If Congress continues to spend like drunken sailors with reckless abandon, the dollar will continue to fall and gold will continue to rise. Simplistic, but that's how I see it.

edmundfitzgerald · January 17, 2011 7:54PM

The only reason the stock market is going higher is because the Fed has printed all this phoney money and given it to the banks.
The same banks that were on the brink of disaster without the taxpayers help. How does bankrupt GM have an IPO at the
taxpayers expense ? How do we resolve our debt crisis ?

You all think gold will go lower because phoney money is inflating our stock market right now ? Is financial paradise right
around the corner ? Can anyone give two fundamental good reasons why commodities go lower in this environment ?

1. Overbought ?
2. Economy is getting better ?

Gold is never overbought. Actually, it's historically underbought. Economy is better now ? Pass me some of that stuff you're smokin.

ksammut · January 17, 2011 9:05PM

There was a lot of shorting in the first few days of the new year. A good number of interviews on the business channels and news print saying gold was headed down during the first two weeks of this year. This may have precipitated some selling.

If Chinese and Indian investors see this as a chance to buy on the dip, a lot of shorts will be forced to cover. Not sure if we make it all the way up to $1500 but $1400 to $1450 would be reasonable over the next few weeks.

MMR · January 17, 2011 9:14PM

The fundamentals driving the price of gold have not changed, rather they have intensified. I don't see gold or silver going lower from here even if the stock market melts down. There are too many people waking up to what the end game is - HYPERINFLATION.

57loaded · January 17, 2011 11:48PM

<< The fundamentals driving the price of gold have not changed, rather they have intensified. I don't see gold or silver going lower from here even if the stock market melts down. There are too many people waking up to what the end game is - HYPERINFLATION. >>

it's just not going to happen this quarter, next, third or last this year. there are still too many "conventional opportunities" in myriad of other markets to buy and sell. although i do see inflation, i still do not see on the horizon an abandoning of the US$ in fiat form. it won't be the quantity of money it will be the preception of it's value.

God help J6P

MMR · January 18, 2011 12:07AM

<< 

<< The fundamentals driving the price of gold have not changed, rather they have intensified. I don't see gold or silver going lower from here even if the stock market melts down. There are too many people waking up to what the end game is - HYPERINFLATION. >>

it's just not going to happen this quarter, next, third or last this year. there are still too many "conventional opportunities" in myriad of other markets to buy and sell. although i do see inflation, i still do not see on the horizon an abandoning of the US$ in fiat form. it won't be the quantity of money it will be the preception of it's value.

God help J6P >>

I am convince that the great melt-up will be the great melt-up and collapse of 2011 perhaps as soon as Q2 or Q3. These things have a way of accelerating exponentially.

And yes 57, God help us all.

57loaded · January 18, 2011 5:52AM

it just could...i personally think the DOW and S&P 500 levels are tenuous right now, but money is being made there hand over fist.

when earnings don't match expectations look out below

Gold seen at $1,500 in first quarter

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