What is a better investment right now (for one and two years), rare US coins or stock in Collector's
ANACONDA
Posts: 4,692 ✭
The stock is trading currently at $13.899 AND it pays what seems to me to be a very high dividend of close to 10%.
Of course the following questions come up:
What is your time horizon? Assume 1 year and also 2 year with no transaction costs on any selection.
Which rare US Coins? Pick from the market segment indexes below the PCGS 3000 Index
PCGS 3000 Index (The PCGS 3000 Index is currently at 67,319.)
Generic Gold Coin Index
Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index
Proof Gold Coin Index
Mint State Type Coin Index
Proof Type Coin Index
Morgan and Peace Dollar Index
Silver and Gold Commemorative Index
20th Century Coin Index
PCGS3000® Index
Key Dates and Rarities Index
My choice for one year is stock in Collector's Universe, my choice for two years is Proof Gold Coin Index.
Of course the following questions come up:
What is your time horizon? Assume 1 year and also 2 year with no transaction costs on any selection.
Which rare US Coins? Pick from the market segment indexes below the PCGS 3000 Index
PCGS 3000 Index (The PCGS 3000 Index is currently at 67,319.)
Generic Gold Coin Index
Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index
Proof Gold Coin Index
Mint State Type Coin Index
Proof Type Coin Index
Morgan and Peace Dollar Index
Silver and Gold Commemorative Index
20th Century Coin Index
PCGS3000® Index
Key Dates and Rarities Index
My choice for one year is stock in Collector's Universe, my choice for two years is Proof Gold Coin Index.
0
Comments
Too bad you didn't ask this question a year ago... would you have picked gold or CU in Jan '10?
<< <i>I still have a 8-year-investment remaining in my ex-wife. If anyone would like to join in my investment, let me know!
Too bad you didn't ask this question a year ago... would you have picked gold or CU in Jan '10? >>
How do you calculate return on the ex?
So hypothetically after taxes of 28% the coin investment will have returned 7.2% (assuming it goes up 10%).
CLCT stock if the stock was flat and they paid out their dividend would return after taxes 8%.
If you think coins would do well, then it would infer that CLCT would do well.
So knowing the above, I would have to go with the stock for either a 1 year or 2 year period
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<< <i>I still have a 8-year-investment remaining in my ex-wife. If anyone would like to join in my investment, let me know!
Too bad you didn't ask this question a year ago... would you have picked gold or CU in Jan '10? >>
How do you calculate return on the ex? >>
Based on my own experience, a return is not desired. Notwithstanding numerical calculations, this is quite likely a bargain
Aside from gaining in a bull PM market, as hoarding increases and availability weakens the premiums increase as well. Secondary market ASEs are a prime example.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
Other than that I also would like proof gold.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>From an investment perspective, not-so-rare US gold and silver bullion coins. >>
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Rare coins never have been, and never should be considered an investment unless you want to lose some or all of your money.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
This forces high-end dealers to push common coins in very high grades (e.g., MS67 Liberty nickels). Coins in most readily accessible price ranges won't do well in the short term unless the economy bounces back quickly.
People with good eyes and experience may do well getting coins into + holders, making decent returns (if there are ready buyers).
As an investment for one year, I vote CU stock. I agree with Anaconda's choice for the two-year investment as well.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>Well, since we're talking about investment, I think that most people who recommend coins as investments recommend MS65 or higher. >>
I would recommend rarity over grade.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
Two+ years ago... in Dec 2008... while it might have seemed insane at that point with all the market chaos, hindsight shows that as THE time to buy all that you could of CLCT stock... the share price bottomed out at under $3 share then... would have been a better play than (most) rare coins or PM's, if one had the foresight and/or chutzpah at the time...
Just my general opinion... but I think that if CLCT stock were to tank again and/or the dividend were to vanish... this would indicate to me that the general rare coin/collectible market was also taking a big hit... as long as the coin/collectible market remains relatively healthy and the company continues to watch it's P's and Q's, cross the T's and dot the I's... it should continue to plug right along as a solid company with solid profits (to share as dividends)...
<< <i>Right now --- I would buy the stock...
Two+ years ago... in Dec 2008... while it might have seemed insane at that point with all the market chaos, hindsight shows that as THE time to buy all that you could of CLCT stock... the share price bottomed out at under $3 share then... would have been a better play than (most) rare coins or PM's, if one had the foresight and/or chutzpah at the time...
Just my general opinion... but I think that if CLCT stock were to tank again and/or the dividend were to vanish... this would indicate to me that the general rare coin/collectible market was also taking a big hit... as long as the coin/collectible market remains relatively healthy and the company continues to watch it's P's and Q's, cross the T's and dot the I's... it should continue to plug right along as a solid company with solid profits (to share as dividends)... >>
Couldn't have summed it up any better except to say that David Hall was buying stock 2 years ago when he bought a sizable amount from the ex-ceo after he got a margin call and was forced to liquidate. And David hasn't sold any.
I own both coins and the stock.
One thing I find funny about this board is you will almost NEVER get any one to say to buy coins as an investment. You got to a stock board and you get an endless supply of stock tips. You go to a real estate board and they tell you to invest in rental properties etc. You go to an art board and they tell you to buy fine art works. But here??!! All you get is meh, coins suck. What does that say about the nature of coin collectors? With all the time some of these people put into this hobby you would think they would find a way to make money.
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One thing I find funny about this board is you will almost NEVER get any one to say to buy coins as an investment. You got to a stock board and you get an endless supply of stock tips. You go to a real estate board and they tell you to invest in rental properties etc. You go to an art board and they tell you to buy fine art works. But here??!! All you get is meh, coins suck. What does that say about the nature of coin collectors? With all the time some of these people put into this hobby you would think they would find a way to make money. >>
It says that coin collectors are realists and are intelligent. Most understand that it is a fun hobby. Folks here know better than to buy the song and dance of those hawking collectible coins as short term investments. Dealers make the lion's share of the money. A few collectors also do well. Those that do well tend to be extremely talented in terms of grading skill, well connected in terms of access to coins, and knowledgeable about the coin market because they spend endless hours on a hobby that they truly love. Those that focus mostly on the investment side of coins, tend to do poorly. Those that try to invest in collectible coins, without skill, training and expertise, are almost sure to do poorly.
The hypothetical is rather meaningless, except for the dealers, because a collector always has transaction costs. The cost might be low if the collector is extremely well connected. On the other side, the average collector, buying at retail might be looking at a 20% or larger hit when buying at retail, selling at typical collector venues. So subtract on average about $1000 of the $5000 for the dealer and/or auction house fees and the typical coin investor starts from there. Anything with that kind of spread and costs can not be seriously considered for short term one or two year investment.
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One thing I find funny about this board is you will almost NEVER get any one to say to buy coins as an investment. You got to a stock board and you get an endless supply of stock tips. You go to a real estate board and they tell you to invest in rental properties etc. You go to an art board and they tell you to buy fine art works. But here??!! All you get is meh, coins suck. What does that say about the nature of coin collectors? With all the time some of these people put into this hobby you would think they would find a way to make money. >>
It says that coin collectors are realists and are intelligent. Most understand that it is a fun hobby. Folks here know better than to buy the song and dance of those hawking collectible coins as short term investments. Dealers make the lion's share of the money. A few collectors also do well. Those that do well tend to be extremely talented in terms of grading skill, well connected in terms of access to coins, and knowledgeable about the coin market because they spend endless hours on a hobby that they truly love. Those that focus mostly on the investment side of coins, tend to do poorly. Those that try to invest in collectible coins, without skill, training and expertise, are almost sure to do poorly.
The hypothetical is rather meaningless, except for the dealers, because a collector always has transaction costs. The cost might be low if the collector is extremely well connected. On the other side, the average collector, buying at retail might be looking at a 20% or larger hit when buying at retail, selling at typical collector venues. So subtract on average about $1000 of the $5000 for the dealer and/or auction house fees and the typical coin investor starts from there. Anything with that kind of spread and costs can not be seriously considered for short term one or two year investment. >>
Art investments have the same vig and crappy pieces like that "Walking Man" sell for over $100M. It seems an area that could use some ingenuity is the ability to guide those that want to invest into investments in coins. You might say that whats dealers are SUPPOSED to do but it seems all they do do is make themselves money at the expense of their clients.
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One thing I find funny about this board is you will almost NEVER get any one to say to buy coins as an investment. You got to a stock board and you get an endless supply of stock tips. You go to a real estate board and they tell you to invest in rental properties etc. You go to an art board and they tell you to buy fine art works. But here??!! All you get is meh, coins suck. What does that say about the nature of coin collectors? With all the time some of these people put into this hobby you would think they would find a way to make money. >>
It says that coin collectors are realists and are intelligent. Most understand that it is a fun hobby. Folks here know better than to buy the song and dance of those hawking collectible coins as short term investments. Dealers make the lion's share of the money. A few collectors also do well. Those that do well tend to be extremely talented in terms of grading skill, well connected in terms of access to coins, and knowledgeable about the coin market because they spend endless hours on a hobby that they truly love. Those that focus mostly on the investment side of coins, tend to do poorly. Those that try to invest in collectible coins, without skill, training and expertise, are almost sure to do poorly.
The hypothetical is rather meaningless, except for the dealers, because a collector always has transaction costs. The cost might be low if the collector is extremely well connected. On the other side, the average collector, buying at retail might be looking at a 20% or larger hit when buying at retail, selling at typical collector venues. So subtract on average about $1000 of the $5000 for the dealer and/or auction house fees and the typical coin investor starts from there. Anything with that kind of spread and costs can not be seriously considered for short term one or two year investment. >>
Art investments have the same vig and crappy pieces like that "Walking Man" sell for over $100M. It seems an area that could use some ingenuity is the ability to guide those that want to invest into investments in coins. You might say that whats dealers are SUPPOSED to do but it seems all they do do is make themselves money at the expense of their clients. >>
"You might say dealers are "SUPPOSED to guide those that want to invest into investments in coins"? Based on what, are they SUPPOSED to do that?
I have the feeling that if more dealers did that, you'd accuse them, by saying something like you already did, above: "but it seems all they do do is make themselves money at the expense of their clients".
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>You might say dealers are "SUPPOSED to guide those that want to invest into investments in coins"? Based on what, are they SUPPOSED to do that?
I have the feeling that if more dealers did that, you'd accuse them, by saying something like you already did, above: "but it seems all they do do is make themselves money at the expense of their clients". >>
Isn't it funny how coin dealers are crooks because they make money "at the expense of their clients"? Just makes me laugh.
No wonder so few dealers post here. (When I'm not posting here, I'm beating myself with my cat o' nine tails.)
A more affective punishment would be to simply re-read many of your own posts. It works for the rest of us.
Thanks anyway.....I like pain and pleasure.....that's why I'm always so happy!
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One thing I find funny about this board is you will almost NEVER get any one to say to buy coins as an investment. You got to a stock board and you get an endless supply of stock tips. You go to a real estate board and they tell you to invest in rental properties etc. You go to an art board and they tell you to buy fine art works. But here??!! All you get is meh, coins suck. What does that say about the nature of coin collectors? With all the time some of these people put into this hobby you would think they would find a way to make money. >>
It says that coin collectors are realists and are intelligent. Most understand that it is a fun hobby. Folks here know better than to buy the song and dance of those hawking collectible coins as short term investments. Dealers make the lion's share of the money. A few collectors also do well. Those that do well tend to be extremely talented in terms of grading skill, well connected in terms of access to coins, and knowledgeable about the coin market because they spend endless hours on a hobby that they truly love. Those that focus mostly on the investment side of coins, tend to do poorly. Those that try to invest in collectible coins, without skill, training and expertise, are almost sure to do poorly.
The hypothetical is rather meaningless, except for the dealers, because a collector always has transaction costs. The cost might be low if the collector is extremely well connected. On the other side, the average collector, buying at retail might be looking at a 20% or larger hit when buying at retail, selling at typical collector venues. So subtract on average about $1000 of the $5000 for the dealer and/or auction house fees and the typical coin investor starts from there. Anything with that kind of spread and costs can not be seriously considered for short term one or two year investment. >>
Art investments have the same vig and crappy pieces like that "Walking Man" sell for over $100M. It seems an area that could use some ingenuity is the ability to guide those that want to invest into investments in coins. You might say that whats dealers are SUPPOSED to do but it seems all they do do is make themselves money at the expense of their clients. >>
Yes, a few pieces of art do sell for big profits, the same happens in coins. Most collectors of art or coins don't have access or funds for the flagship pieces. The majority of collectors of both art and coins are looking at mostly common pieces, at retail markups. Most on the forum know the history of coin investments. Most understand that average collectors of average means, buying collector coins at retail prices are doing well to break even after five years after factoring in fees, commissions, spreads. That doesn't mean money is nothing, because for many collectible hobbies, break even is virtually impossible unless a person works part-time in the hobby. Break-even is also a lot better than a 50% loss which is common for retail customers in other collectible hobbies.
Again, a few exceptional coin collectors do very well financially, and again, the factors that influence that result are: grading skill, dealer connections, and market knowledge. Someone who is top 20% in all three areas is likely to do well financially. Unfortunately, the typical coin investor is bottom 20% in one or more areas, and that is one reason they do so poorly. Excellent dealer connections are a big part of what makes for financially successful collectors. Dealers are not the enemy for the successful collector. Ideally, the dealer is a respected professional, with vast expertise, working for the collector, or working with the collector. Any collector that buys hot investment coins without being able to grade, without decent dealer connections, without much market knowledge will likely do poorly, and a good many will lose their shirts.
Investment advisors need more licenses and open themselves to lawsuits of all kinds if they offer investment advice. Most coin dealers know enough to steer clear, or at least do a little song and dance instead of pretending to be investment advisors.
As for dealers posting here, some handle themselves well. A few dealers have increased their business by leaps and bounds through their participation on the forum. That said, there are also a good many dealers that would do themselves a favor by being much more selective in their online conversations.
Ask he same of everyone here and they all say is "meh, coins suck". I am saying there is a NEED for this type of service for coins because people are just plain sick of stocks and bonds. Given a sufficient time frame of 5-10 or more years, some good guidance and diversity, there is no reason that coins can not make you money.
I sold a bunch of AU Liberties and Saints earlier this year and got my kitchen and bath redone...with the profits. Sure I lucked out by getting into gold 5-6 years ago but I bet if I had some guidance back then I would have done even better. I can't be the only flipin guy who wants to make a buck at this hobby without being a dealer. And I'm not talking about flipping stuff from the Mint and hoping for 70's etc.
Do all you guys mean to tell me there is not some under appreciated sector in the coin market where values are just crazy low? Maybe the premiums on MS65 Saints and Liberties vs spot or something similar? Commemoratives? CBH's?
All this brain power on this board and all I get is "meh, coins suck"
I'm just sayin I think there's an opportunity here.
PCGS has all those coin indexes. Why doesn't some investment firm actually buy those coins to mirror those indexes (or start their own) and set up an actual stock ETF that you can invest in? So instead of having to go out and buy coins, you just buy the ETF and let the ETF worry about storage, insurance, commissions, etc... For that matter, why doesn't PCGS approach some Wall St firms and suggest this? I know this was tried somewhat in the 80's but I think it failed there because they wanted to TRADE coins sight unseen. This would not trade coins, just collect them to mirror some coin segment. If I can buy an ETF in copper, platinum, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, Brazilian companies, Electric companies, water companies, and on and on, why not coins?
Actually, I think this is a great idea....and not just because I have already thought about it (and it may have already been done to some degree already....)...
Sure....these are some things to think about.....you would have to comply with quite a few laws to have a public offering...and the total amount of choice investment quality rare coins is actually quite limited, especially if you're talking about available at any one time....so you might, in your buying efforts, send prices very high which then makes your acquistion costs creep......in other words your participation in the marketplace with your coming and going so to speak might have substantial delterious effects.....also guys that "know" rare coins like to have access to them...and if they have enough money to invest in an EFT, they probably could just buy the coins.....BUT having said that.....here.....look at this group......
Certified Assets Management Group....they say about themselves:
Certified Assets Management, Inc. (CAMI) is a completely independent, wholesale rare coin fund management and marketing services company incorporated in Delaware with offices in five states.
Our business philosophy is simply based in fair dealing while building mutually beneficial relationships one by one. We are interested in straight forward, no-nonsense rare coin trading with like-minded professionals. Wholesalers will find our many resources particularly valuable.
CAMI has been operating continuously since 2001 and now manages multiple funds rather than the single, closed fund it successfully managed until 2005.
Our headquarters are located inside First State Depository Company (FSDC) which is a level 3, high security facility which stores precious metals and rare coins for investment banks, brokerage firms, refining companies, commodity trading houses, precious metals retailers, coin dealers and individual investors. (Reference: Eric Higgins, Director 302-765-2760).
You have to keep in mind, though, you then have a staff, security issues, insurance and all the mucky muck of owning a biz.......that stuff costs and eats into profits...but I say someone go for it!
<< <i>From an investment perspective, not-so-rare US gold and silver bullion coins.
Aside from gaining in a bull PM market, as hoarding increases and availability weakens the premiums increase as well. Secondary market ASEs are a prime example. >>
I agree. I like low mintage modern issues with very high intrensic value to back up the price of my purchase. It would be nice if "low mintage modern silver gold and platinum eagles" were added to the list. They are not listed but they are the segment with the fastest appreciation over the last 10 years hands down.
Eric
Aside from gaining in a bull PM market, as hoarding increases and availability weakens the premiums increase as well. Secondary market ASEs are a prime example. >>
I agree. I like low mintage modern issues with very high intrensic value to back up the price of my purchase. It would be nice if "low mintage modern silver gold and platinum eagles" were added to the list. They are not listed but they are the segment with the fastest appreciation over the last 10 years hands down.
What they both said!!!
There have to be enough coins available for them to be visible in the market, but they also have to be scarce enough to be desirable in a series having high intrinsic value that is likely to be collected for some potential price appreciation. There are ample examples in the Modern Commems and Modern Bullion series to have proven the viability of this approach in a rising precious metals market.
I knew it would happen.
Larry
POB 854
Temecula CA 92593
310-541-7222 office
310-710-2869 cell
www.LSRarecoins.com
Larry@LSRarecoins.com
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