GSS might offer some short term possibilities after that 40% drop. But let's also remember that it went 12X from Nov. 2009. A 50% correction of that takes it back to 3. GSS went through a tough 3rd qtr earnings report that had hammered it along with lowered production estimates. It seems to be trying to complete the handle of a long term IH&S formation. I don't see why it couldn't drop further to 2.0-2.5 to match the symmetry from 2005-2007 (worst case). It has fallen well below the Nov 2009 high (peak of leg 1) which implies that this past 2 yr run may be corrective rather than impulsive. A run to 3.0 would equate to retesting the apex of the triangle formed from 2004-2010. That would also give it a much more smoother bowl formation from 2004-2011. Long term support for this stock is around the 3.0 level.
Getting lazy about posting lately... I was expecting last night's drop to 1322, at which point I have switch short to long looking for a 38.2% bounce to ~1360. But I'm still not expecting much overall movement until Feb 8. And a breach of 1322 area will probably mean more downside to ~1290.
Looks like I managed to sell at the bottom in miners... although it's not like miners have exactly taken off or gone anywhere. I'll look at getting back in mining stocks around Feb 8 as well. If only I could get the market to "flash crash" while I'm sitting here on the side in cash.
Sp500 still looking good, looks bound for 1320 near term.
<< <i>USDollar has made 5 trips to the 78.0 line in the last 3 trading days. If it keeps on persevering it can finally get through. Just sayin. >>
Yes, the USD is looking weak, at least the USD futures (DX). Unfortunately, it means little as far as metals prices, as there has been no reliable correlation in movements for quite some time. IMO, this means that foreign currency and PM buying/selling are driving the POG, but that's not much help either... perhaps Europe and Asia are selling gold and bonds to buy Euros?
Overall, I don't think we'll see a collapse in PM prices like I thought was a possibility a few weeks ago, but something in the world markets needs to happen to turn the "switch" back on for PMs.
Let's see what happens after the FOMC announcement, options expiration and SOTU address tomorrow. Wed or Thursday have often been turn around days following end of month headwinds such as we're experiencing this week.
The last time the dollar was linked up with gold in a tailspin was back in June-July 2010 when they dropped in unison for about a month. Recall that gold was in the process of trying to find it's summer bottom at the time. Much the same thing is going on now with gold trying to work towards a bottom.
I share your sentiment. But keep in mind, (I believe) the government considers a spending freeze to be the same as last year's budget plus a pre-determine annual increase, so we're still talking about more spending unless I am confused. They would call it a spending cut if this year's budget was the same as last year's.
Some nice examples of retesting the neckline after the breaking away from the cup. BVN chart as of today is a nearly picture perfect cup and handle with breakout and retest.
This morning picked up some AZK, FRG, RBY, UXG, VGZ, and XRA. Yesterday bought some GDXJ, NXG, and GSS out of the low. Was contemplating buying more before the FED decision but was happy that I at least bought something.
Gofo rates steady now for past 6 days. No new lower low since Friday. Seemed to me that 5 legs down over the past 10 trading days occurred with GLD, SLV and HUI. With GLD and GDXJ having decent gaps to fill up around $1360+ a bounce seemed credible, especially after that last retest this morning close to yesterday's lows. Even so, will then have to deal with the next "forecasted" cyclical period of weakness from late next week to middle of February, assuming it hits the metals.
USDollar continues to "stick" to the 78.0 level like it was fly paper....apparently getting some "Federal assistance."
Nice little bump for pm's based on Fed comments into the close. Operation Injection is still on. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Don't get too excited about this bump. We're due for a retracement of the move down and that's all this is - so far. We can expect gold to hit 1360+, and then it will be key to watch for a reaction from there. I will probably take a chance and short it.
Stocks still look good but they are taking their sweet time...
Increased volatility of silver has put a halt to my effectively trading ZSL (double short) and AGQ (double long) in my IRAs. Because of the 5 day freeze imposed on IRAs in selling a security bought with unsettled funds, I can't get in and out quick enough. Find myself having to wait for the second or third dip or rise. Unable to make the most of the volatility but still able to turn some profit.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Increased volatility of silver has put a halt to my effectively trading ZSL (double short) and AGQ (double long) in my IRAs. Because of the 5 day freeze imposed on IRAs in selling a security bought with unsettled funds, I can't get in and out quick enough. Find myself having to wait for the second or third dip or rise. Unable to make the most of the volatility but still able to turn some profit. >>
Traded too many times, eh? The restriction you mention is only imposed if you exceed your cash available through excessive intra-day trading. You can flip your entire account everyday if you just sell the security a day after you bought it. Then you can re-use those proceeds, but if you buy and sell on the same day, you must wait for the trade to settle, which is 3 business days.
GLD testing the Oct lows.
RSI on INDU is 80. #1 largest component is IBM(rsi 84) which is parbolic and #2--CAT-- is at the top of its trend channel and making a very steep rising wedge. XOM and CVX also at top of trend channels. The DOW needs new leadership immediately, or gravity will regain its grip.
<RSI on INDU is 80. #1 largest component is IBM(rsi 84) which is parbolic and #2--CAT-- is at the top of its trend channel and making a very steep rising wedge. XOM and CVX also at top of trend channels. The DOW needs new leadership immediately, or gravity will regain its grip>
What he said. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>The restriction you mention is only imposed if you exceed your cash available through excessive intra-day trading. You can flip your entire account everyday if you just sell the security a day after you bought it. Then you can re-use those proceeds, but if you buy and sell on the same day, you must wait for the trade to settle, which is 3 business days. >>
Settlement is the date by which a buyer must pay for securities delivered by a seller, or the date by which the transaction must be complete. For stocks and bonds, the settlement date is three business days after the transaction. If the account has settled funds, there are no restrictions as to what may be purchased. If the credit balance is a result of an unsettled sale of securities, certain restrictions may apply. Unsettled proceeds from existing long positions can be used to purchase additional securities as long as the new purchase is not sold prior to the settlement date of the original sale that generated the proceeds used to finance the purchase. If it is sold prior to the settlement date of the funding sale without additional funds being deposited, it will be considered a free ride under Federal Reserve Regulation T.
The only way for my available funds to be considered "settled" is to wait the three days for settlement before using them to purchase AGQ. If I don't wait and decide to use them the next day to purchase AGQ, I am locked into holding the AGQ until the funds settle. Otherwise I have taken a free ride under Reg. T. This means I cannot buy ZSL on Monday, sell it on Tuesday and flip the funds into AGQ without being locked in to holding AGQ until Friday.
I don't day trade these two ETFs but at the same time I don't want to be locked into holding either one of them longer than a day.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
My brokerage account with USAA has a 3 day limit on all trades. No matter how many days elapse until I sell, they place a 3 day hold on those funds though occasionally I've seen them clear in 2 days. My T. Rowe Price IRA account also has the 3 day limitation but not as strict as USAA. I can rebuy the day after a sale but am locked into that choice for 3 days if there are not fresh funds to cover that new trade.
<< <i>My brokerage account with USAA has a 3 day limit on all trades. No matter how many days elapse until I sell, they place a 3 day hold on those funds though occasionally I've seen them clear in 2 days. My T. Rowe Price IRA account also has the 3 day limitation but not as strict as USAA. I can rebuy the day after a sale but am locked into that choice for 3 days if there are not fresh funds to cover that new trade.
roadrunner >>
Same here except Scottrade lets me immediately spend the unsettled funds, just have to hold on to the new purchase until settled. If I make a sell and let the cash sit until the trade is settled then the cash becomes "settled funds" which are not subject to the restrictions. I believe this to be governed by tax law on all IRA trading accounts. Regulation T?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The only way for my available funds to be considered "settled" is to wait the three days for settlement before using them to purchase AGQ. If I don't wait and decide to use them the next day to purchase AGQ, I am locked into holding the AGQ until the funds settle
I dont have those restrictions in my IRA. But then again I NEVER have my entire account fully invested. I also trade options within my IRA.
<< <i>The only way for my available funds to be considered "settled" is to wait the three days for settlement before using them to purchase AGQ. If I don't wait and decide to use them the next day to purchase AGQ, I am locked into holding the AGQ until the funds settle
I dont have those restrictions in my IRA. But then again I NEVER have my entire account fully invested. I also trade options within my IRA. >>
The restrictions are probably there but not invoked because you are using settled funds to make your purchases. I suspect these are restrictions dictated by IRS code.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
All accounts are subject to Reg T, but investors get into trouble when they try to daytrade.
For example, on Monday you have 100k in cash in your account and buy 100k worth of stock, that trade will settle on Thursday. So if you sell that same stock on Tuesday this sale settles on Friday. So you can use the money from the sale on Tuesday, to buy more stock on Tuesday, because this "new" buy will not settle until Friday--the same day the first sale settles. So all trades are covered. It is only when you buy AND sell in the same day that you will run into problems. So yes, all my trades are covered, because the sale proceeds settle the day before the buy.
I am never fully invested and therefore always have cash available for another trade. My account is never "suspended" for 3 days.
GLD closed under the Oct lows today and now looks to be making a triple top. Lots of noise within $40 of here---price support from last summers peak, 150 and 200dma, and uptrend line off the Nov 2008 lows. If this line is broken, I may have to revisit my "infamous" thread.
The DOW has 2 strikes against 12,000. Will it strike out? We'll know in 13 hours.
<< <i><RSI on INDU is 80. #1 largest component is IBM(rsi 84) which is parbolic and #2--CAT-- is at the top of its trend channel and making a very steep rising wedge. XOM and CVX also at top of trend channels. The DOW needs new leadership immediately, or gravity will regain its grip>
Well the markets have sure kicked my ass this week. Just when I thought gold was ready to break down they turn around. Everyone's crediting the Egypt riots, but I'm not convinced. Once again the direction of gold is in doubt, and I believe we'll have to wait and see what happens at 1365. and then again at 1390. I have an inkling that the plan I put up a few days ago is still in play - the 38.2% retracement up to 1360's and then back down. I'm still looking at Feb 8 for a bottom, and I think it will be mostly volatile until then.
Stocks of course are no longer looking good, and so a 38.2% retracement of the long move up is probably in order. But I don't expect the plummet to continue next week , I think it will wait until the following week of Feb 8, perhaps to coincide with the bottom I expect in gold.
Of course, if things in the middle east get crazy, we could be looking at a $50-100 up day in gold...
SLV bounced back up to the 20dma or middle Bollinger band today. So far looks like nothing more than a dead cat bounce after gapping down through the 50dma on Jan 20.
Gold acted like poo-poo today, but above the 150 and 200dma and uptrend line, so must still respect the uptrend. Momos still pointing down, so another $50 drop would not be surprising.
I agree Cohodk. Lots of volatility in PMs right now, very difficult to trade. With the Egypt mess I'm not sure I want to short gold, although I do believe it is headed lower. And I think with the Egypt thing going on and gold unable to rally further gold is looking REALLY weak. So Egypt could help buoy gold and stem the downside a bit, but very difficult to trade right now.
I side with this guy as far as where gold is at and what's coming next. I'm looking for a potential rise to $1362 to fill a GLD gap. Note that today GDXJ rose enough to fill its gap from about 2 weeks ago. GDX has touched that same area on its chart 3 times now in the past 5 days. SLV came within 10c today in closing its gap. GLD still has the furthest to go since it's been the laggard of the group. The author doesn't rule out that the $1310 area could be challenged again in the coming weeks. The chart is a week old so his #5 point has been reached. My only concern with the wave count is that it doesn't work this cleanly with GDX which seems to be short a leg in the last series down.
Comments
GSS might offer some short term possibilities after that 40% drop. But let's also remember that it went 12X from Nov. 2009. A 50% correction of that takes it back to 3. GSS went through a tough 3rd qtr earnings report that had hammered it along with lowered production estimates. It seems to be trying to complete the handle of a long term IH&S formation. I don't see why it couldn't drop further to 2.0-2.5 to match the symmetry from 2005-2007 (worst case). It has fallen well below the Nov 2009 high (peak of leg 1) which implies that this past 2 yr run may be corrective rather than impulsive. A run to 3.0 would equate to retesting the apex of the triangle formed from 2004-2010. That would also give it a much more smoother bowl formation from 2004-2011. Long term support for this stock is around the 3.0 level.
roadrunner
Looks like I managed to sell at the bottom in miners... although it's not like miners have exactly taken off or gone anywhere. I'll look at getting back in mining stocks around Feb 8 as well. If only I could get the market to "flash crash" while I'm sitting here on the side in cash.
Sp500 still looking good, looks bound for 1320 near term.
roadrunner
<< <i>USDollar has made 5 trips to the 78.0 line in the last 3 trading days. If it keeps on persevering it can finally get through. Just sayin. >>
Yes, the USD is looking weak, at least the USD futures (DX). Unfortunately, it means little as far as metals prices, as there has been no reliable correlation in movements for quite some time. IMO, this means that foreign currency and PM buying/selling are driving the POG, but that's not much help either... perhaps Europe and Asia are selling gold and bonds to buy Euros?
Overall, I don't think we'll see a collapse in PM prices like I thought was a possibility a few weeks ago, but something in the world markets needs to happen to turn the "switch" back on for PMs.
The last time the dollar was linked up with gold in a tailspin was back in June-July 2010 when they dropped in unison for about a month. Recall that gold was in the process of trying to find it's summer bottom at the time. Much the same thing is going on now with gold trying to work towards a bottom.
roadrunner
CNBC spent the entire day yesterday talking about "food inflation". Have they marked the top?
Obama is supposed to announce spending freezes. I'll believe it when I see, but if it happens would be at the very least disinflationary.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
BVN
Some nice examples of retesting the neckline after the breaking away from the cup.
BVN chart as of today is a nearly picture perfect cup and handle with breakout and retest.
IAG finally breaking out of 14 month consolidation?
This morning picked up some AZK, FRG, RBY, UXG, VGZ, and XRA. Yesterday bought some GDXJ, NXG, and GSS out of the low. Was contemplating buying more before the FED decision but was happy that I at least bought something.
Gofo rates steady now for past 6 days. No new lower low since Friday. Seemed to me that 5 legs down over the past 10 trading days occurred with GLD, SLV and HUI. With GLD and GDXJ having decent gaps to fill up around $1360+ a bounce seemed credible, especially after that last retest this morning close to yesterday's lows. Even so, will then have to deal with the next "forecasted" cyclical period of weakness from late next week to middle of February, assuming it hits the metals.
USDollar continues to "stick" to the 78.0 level like it was fly paper....apparently getting some "Federal assistance."
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Stocks still look good but they are taking their sweet time...
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Increased volatility of silver has put a halt to my effectively trading ZSL (double short) and AGQ (double long) in my IRAs. Because of the 5 day freeze imposed on IRAs in selling a security bought with unsettled funds, I can't get in and out quick enough. Find myself having to wait for the second or third dip or rise. Unable to make the most of the volatility but still able to turn some profit. >>
Traded too many times, eh? The restriction you mention is only imposed if you exceed your cash available through excessive intra-day trading. You can flip your entire account everyday if you just sell the security a day after you bought it. Then you can re-use those proceeds, but if you buy and sell on the same day, you must wait for the trade to settle, which is 3 business days.
GLD testing the Oct lows.
RSI on INDU is 80. #1 largest component is IBM(rsi 84) which is parbolic and #2--CAT-- is at the top of its trend channel and making a very steep rising wedge. XOM and CVX also at top of trend channels. The DOW needs new leadership immediately, or gravity will regain its grip.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What he said. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>The restriction you mention is only imposed if you exceed your cash available through excessive intra-day trading. You can flip your entire account everyday if you just sell the security a day after you bought it. Then you can re-use those proceeds, but if you buy and sell on the same day, you must wait for the trade to settle, which is 3 business days. >>
Settlement is the date by which a buyer must pay for securities delivered by a seller, or the date by which the transaction must be complete. For stocks and bonds, the settlement date is three business days after the transaction. If the account has settled funds, there are no restrictions as to what may be purchased. If the credit balance is a result of an unsettled sale of securities, certain restrictions may apply. Unsettled proceeds from existing long positions can be used to purchase additional securities as long as the new purchase is not sold prior to the settlement date of the original sale that generated the proceeds used to finance the purchase. If it is sold prior to the settlement date of the funding sale without additional funds being deposited, it will be considered a free ride under Federal Reserve Regulation T.
The only way for my available funds to be considered "settled" is to wait the three days for settlement before using them to purchase AGQ. If I don't wait and decide to use them the next day to purchase AGQ, I am locked into holding the AGQ until the funds settle. Otherwise I have taken a free ride under Reg. T. This means I cannot buy ZSL on Monday, sell it on Tuesday and flip the funds into AGQ without being locked in to holding AGQ until Friday.
I don't day trade these two ETFs but at the same time I don't want to be locked into holding either one of them longer than a day.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
roadrunner
<< <i>My brokerage account with USAA has a 3 day limit on all trades. No matter how many days elapse until I sell, they place a 3 day hold on those funds though occasionally I've seen them clear in 2 days. My T. Rowe Price IRA account also has the 3 day limitation but not as strict as USAA. I can rebuy the day after a sale but am locked into that choice for 3 days if there are not fresh funds to cover that new trade.
roadrunner >>
Same here except Scottrade lets me immediately spend the unsettled funds, just have to hold on to the new purchase until settled. If I make a sell and let the cash sit until the trade is settled then the cash becomes "settled funds" which are not subject to the restrictions. I believe this to be governed by tax law on all IRA trading accounts. Regulation T?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I dont have those restrictions in my IRA. But then again I NEVER have my entire account fully invested. I also trade options within my IRA.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The only way for my available funds to be considered "settled" is to wait the three days for settlement before using them to purchase AGQ. If I don't wait and decide to use them the next day to purchase AGQ, I am locked into holding the AGQ until the funds settle
I dont have those restrictions in my IRA. But then again I NEVER have my entire account fully invested. I also trade options within my IRA. >>
The restrictions are probably there but not invoked because you are using settled funds to make your purchases. I suspect these are restrictions dictated by IRS code.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
For example, on Monday you have 100k in cash in your account and buy 100k worth of stock, that trade will settle on Thursday. So if you sell that same stock on Tuesday this sale settles on Friday. So you can use the money from the sale on Tuesday, to buy more stock on Tuesday, because this "new" buy will not settle until Friday--the same day the first sale settles. So all trades are covered. It is only when you buy AND sell in the same day that you will run into problems. So yes, all my trades are covered, because the sale proceeds settle the day before the buy.
I am never fully invested and therefore always have cash available for another trade. My account is never "suspended" for 3 days.
GLD closed under the Oct lows today and now looks to be making a triple top. Lots of noise within $40 of here---price support from last summers peak, 150 and 200dma, and uptrend line off the Nov 2008 lows. If this line is broken, I may have to revisit my "infamous" thread.
The DOW has 2 strikes against 12,000. Will it strike out? We'll know in 13 hours.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i><RSI on INDU is 80. #1 largest component is IBM(rsi 84) which is parbolic and #2--CAT-- is at the top of its trend channel and making a very steep rising wedge. XOM and CVX also at top of trend channels. The DOW needs new leadership immediately, or gravity will regain its grip>
What he said. MJ >>
Sir Isaac Newton
The DOW has 2 strikes against 12,000. Will it strike out? We'll know in 13 hours
Like A-Rod in the World Series!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Stocks of course are no longer looking good, and so a 38.2% retracement of the long move up is probably in order. But I don't expect the plummet to continue next week , I think it will wait until the following week of Feb 8, perhaps to coincide with the bottom I expect in gold.
Of course, if things in the middle east get crazy, we could be looking at a $50-100 up day in gold...
Gold acted like poo-poo today, but above the 150 and 200dma and uptrend line, so must still respect the uptrend. Momos still pointing down, so another $50 drop would not be surprising.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I side with this guy as far as where gold is at and what's coming next. I'm looking for a potential rise to $1362 to fill a GLD gap. Note that today GDXJ rose enough to fill its gap from about 2 weeks ago. GDX has touched that same area on its chart 3 times now in the past 5 days. SLV came within 10c today in closing its gap. GLD still has the furthest to go since it's been the laggard of the group. The author doesn't rule out that the $1310 area could be challenged again in the coming weeks. The chart is a week old so his #5 point has been reached.
My only concern with the wave count is that it doesn't work this cleanly with GDX which seems to be short a leg in the last series down.
roadrunner
For a possible lottery ticket:
Watch BGP early in the morning.
Tho they may not have to, I suspect lots of SHORTS
will cover.