Another 5% isn't really a big deal, but it would probably stampede the gold stocks another 10%.
I've never seen anything on PM's from that author before so I have no idea what their accuracy has been. The 150 dma has contained the gold moves for most of this bull market. But the holes in the author's analysis is that gold didn't peak or rebound the way those 2 prior tops did. The Dec 2009 top/Feb 2010 bottom shouldn't even be considered since it was a blow off top on great enthusiasm where gold peaked at >25% above the 200 dma. The initial down legs from those earlier peaks doesn't come close to describing the current pattern of a slow 3 month consolidation with 3 distinct peaks. There's been no big initial pullback that held. So I think we're comparing apples to oranges here. The real question is why have gold and silver been able to hang up here so long unlike nearly every previous top? While I would agree that retesting the 150 dma is the conservative approach, I have doubts whether gold and silver have completed their current runs. The 100 dma has also held much of the last 2 yrs and the HUI came very close to hitting that recently. The 150 dma will come again in 2011, maybe twice...but possibly not in Jan or Feb. I'd leave room for either eventuality. "Everyone" is expecting a pull back to the 150 dma or else the $1260 range. Easy money. Everyone will nail that trade and then watch gold rise to $1500-$1600. That's the problem. It's just too easy and everyone is expecting that.
Other variables in this current commodity choppiness is the rebalancing of the Goldman Sachs commodity index as well as others. Silver was a big mover this past year and most of these indicies will require a higher % silver weight. Same for copper. So during these 1st few weeks in January a number of big funds are maneuvering around the commodity percentages they are required to hold. Hence required selling and buying.
Platinum just completed a 7 month cup and handle. From here one would think it's headed towards $2250-$2300.
FED just released the new POMO schedule. From 1/3 to 2/10. About $90-$110 Bill. Tomorrow is the first day at $7-9 BILL. followed by the same amount the day after.
<< <i>The action in all commodities except gold and silver looks strong: grains, softs, pgm and base metals. Some of these are back to their most current peaks. Silver and gold for some reason seem to be semi-linked to the dollar. The dollar has dropped and silver and gold have tended to follow. The action with gold and silver falling overnight during London trading hours while the dollar tanked looked quite odd. It wouldn't take much of a leap to figure that they are being held down while they can be.
3/10/30 yr Bond auctions this week might be some headwinds to gold and silver until Thursday afternoon. And from the last schedule I saw the POMO injections ended yesterday.
The dollar (UUP) is now in that gap filling range I mentioned on Monday. It's in a steep enough descent it's almost certainly going to take the time to fill it. This will erase all those gains from Wed-Monday. It might as well fall all the way to the 200 dma and bottom bollinger band at this rate as they are all pretty close together. Once it completes this move not sure which direction it will head.
At this point in time, there is much less risk trading paper wheat than paper gold, thats why gold has been dead and soft commods strong. GLD still closed below the 20dma.
The dollar has filled the gap to 80, yet little fanfare from gold. Big rally in the Euro and Pound today from oversold conditions--both down 10% in last 2 months. The Aussie dollar loses 5% in last 2 weeks because of floods!!, give me a break.
Also, the 150dma is widely used as a pivot point among many TA guys.
So why do you think gold and silver have seen little movement while the dollar tanked since Monday....and all other metals, grains and softs took off? Just coincidence? Will this trend continue?
Noted that LBMA gold forward rates finally turned the other way after 9 days straight down. Usually means a gold turn is already started or soon to be....assuming the rates keep trending that way.
<< <i>So why do you think gold and silver have seen little movement while the dollar tanked since Monday....and all other metals, grains and softs took off? Just coincidence? Will this trend continue?
Noted that LBMA gold forward rates finally turned the other way after 9 days straight down. Usually means a gold turn is already started or soon to be....assuming the rates keep trending that way.
roadrunner >>
I dont think its coincidence at all. Buying begets buying. Money moves to the fastest markets. Gold has been flat for 2 months and is an "old" story. Boring. Now we have fear and panic in the grains markets because Australia is underwater. Whoohoo!! Gotta buy wheat and corn!!! At least before we plant some more.
FWIW--I happen to like the chart of wheat very much.
That green thing you see rolling around is actually getting ready to roll over..............A close under $79.58 which looks likely would be good for the typist. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Good old "creamed" of wheat looks like it has a date with $650 fairly soon. Platinum ended its run back in November along with gold. So why is platinum not boring while gold and silver are? I suspect the answer to that is which metals affect the price of the dollar. Allowing gold and silver to rise against a tanking dollar right now is just not allowed. The PTB have been out in full force to ensure the dollar has every opportunity to rally. Of course that doesn't it mean it will.
As MJ mentioned the dollar cratered today. Blew right through the rising neckline from November made from a double H&S. 50 dma penetrated as well. But it has left a bunch of gaps sitting higher in the UUP.
False turn on the LMBA gofo rate. Still headed down. Nice attack by the PTB as soon as the Comex closed today.
<< <i>So why do you think gold and silver have seen little movement while the dollar tanked since Monday....and all other metals, grains and softs took off? Just coincidence? Will this trend continue?
Noted that LBMA gold forward rates finally turned the other way after 9 days straight down. Usually means a gold turn is already started or soon to be....assuming the rates keep trending that way.
roadrunner >>
I dont think its coincidence at all. Buying begets buying. Money moves to the fastest markets. Gold has been flat for 2 months and is an "old" story. Boring. Now we have fear and panic in the grains markets because Australia is underwater. Whoohoo!! Gotta buy wheat and corn!!! At least before we plant some more.
FWIW--I happen to like the chart of wheat very much. >>
but still one would think there would be some fundamental move upwards in Au and Ag, anything long term (3-6 months) happening here?
We are still in limbo with gold and silver, awaiting a resolution that can come any day... and it will resolve in a big way. Looking for a close under 1370 or over 1392 as the indication. Silver's looking really weak, Palladium really strong. Really a mix of signals here. I'm in all cash, waiting for a resolution. Really odd that gold did so poorly today with the USD tanking - not a good sign.
Stocks look good though. I have a 1320 target for SP500 by next week. So I might actually play the SP500 while metals decide what to do.
Sounds like desperate times for the PTB to try and keep silver and gold under wraps while all heck is breaking loose. They have to try to attack after Comex hours because there has been consistent buying strength during trading hours. All the quick 5-15 minute moves of the last week or so have smacked of bankster action, especially the last 2 days while the dollar was tanking. When's the last time that happened while most other commodities soared, esp. plat and pall? The fix is in. Strong buying on GDX today in the last 30 minutes after trading following the 2 hour smackdown. Strongest 15 minute buying volume spike of this past week as stops were swept away.
If I am in a buy position for silver do I really care what happens in the immediate future 3 months out? I will prepare myself to shrug off the volatile moments but I am looking for the big picture $50-$100/oz target goal.
<< <i>We are still in limbo with gold and silver, awaiting a resolution that can come any day... and it will resolve in a big way. Looking for a close under 1370 or over 1392 as the indication. Silver's looking really weak, Palladium really strong. Really a mix of signals here. I'm in all cash, waiting for a resolution. Really odd that gold did so poorly today with the USD tanking - not a good sign.
Stocks look good though. I have a 1320 target for SP500 by next week. So I might actually play the SP500 while metals decide what to do. >>
Roadrunner, platinum is boring. Have you heard it mentioned on the nightly news?
$XAU broke the uptrend line from the Aug lows at the beginning of this month. Now looking like a H&S top. Only projects to 190-195 though. Unless they want to push it to the primary uptrend from beginning of 2009. Gold mining companies now acting like the big integrated oil companies did in 2008. Oil pushed higher yet Exxon, Chevron, BP, barely pushed above the 2007 highs, even though oil doubled. The stock market didnt believe in the oil rally. It was right.
Roadrunner, platinum is boring. Have you heard it mentioned on the nightly news?
$XAU broke the uptrend line from the Aug lows at the beginning of this month. Now looking like a H&S top. Only projects to 190-195 though. Unless they want to push it to the primary uptrend from beginning of 2009. Gold mining companies now acting like the big integrated oil companies did in 2008. Oil pushed higher yet Exxon, Chevron, BP, barely pushed above the 2007 highs, even though oil doubled. The stock market didnt believe in the oil rally. It was right.
Yeah, fwiw I've heard platinum mentioned on the nightly CNBC news. The prime news channels don't even give much mention to gold and silver unless they've been on extended runs to new highs.
Plat may be boring. But when it rises along with everything else that isn't boring, while boring gold and silver hang back, and the dollar falls like a stone, that catches my attention. I would agree that the action in the senior miners today was certainly ominous. The only bright spot was that they bounced on strong volume with 30 min left in the session today. We'll see what tomorrow brings now that they filled the latest gap. GDXJ and SLV filled their gaps as well. I like the GLD gap sitting up high at $1408-$1410. There are lots of stocks that are boring....probably 95% of them. Darn, that "boring" platinum is coming back strong in the after hours tonight. Of all the PM's only platinum has a 9 month cup and handle that has fully completed. As such it has more potential than other more exciting commods, and less risk imo. It should be exciting soon enough as it climbs to form a larger cup at $2250. Today's boring is tomorrow's darling. It wasn't long ago when you said copper was boring and headed into the dumper. It certainly wasn't boring in 2010.
Also found out today that back on Nov 29th SPDR gold trust (GLD) lost their old auditors (Deloitte and Touche) and replaced them with KPMG. Yeah, the same guys that were sued for $1 BILL in the subprime mess. Might just be a coincidence.....or not. If you've already been involved in one $1 BILL lawsuit, it makes you battle tested. But neither firm is a stranger to negligence lawsuits.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Roadrunner, by boring I mean it doesnt have the immediate attention of the traders. Gold has been dead for 2 months while soft commods have been ripping. Traders are going to go to the fast money. They made 70% in silver so now its time to go to the next thing they can move. Commodity market are very thin and illiquid. A traders paradise. Bubbles will come and go.
FWIW--I bought platinum from some forum member recently.
And you should know by now that I prefer to trade "under the radar" things.
Copper went higher because of the creation of ETFs. Industrial demand is no greater today than it was 6 months ago. This is what is happening......Wall street is turning industrial assets into investible assets. Never before has it been so easy for J6P to trade commodities. Today he can buy and sell copper, wheat, gold just as easy as a stocks. This has brought a flood of new investors/traders into the commodity space. This is 99% of the reason for copper going on this ridiculous move. It was 99% of the reason for oil going on its move in 2008. The ease of buying a house in 2006 resulted in a bubble. Its just the same crappie, over and over again. The creation of ETFs have had a MASSIVE influence on the prices of commodities and stocks.
Dont take this the wrong way, but this is what I have noticed....You were getting away from all the conspiracy stuff while the metals were moving higher, but now that they've stopped, your looking for excuses as to why. Prices go up when buyers exceed sellers. Sometimes there are just more sellers than buyers.
<< <i>Gold hasnt been below the 200dma in over 2 years. Thats a pretty long run. I still think gold needs a few years to rest before it goes parabolic. >>
I thought this was a nice chart. I can't wait to see the monthly gold chart when it goes parabolic according to cohodk's standards!
Gold hasnt been below the 200dma in over 2 years. Thats a pretty long run. I still think gold needs a few years to rest before it goes parabolic.
Sometimes it only takes one dedicated seller (ie JPM) to move the silver or gold market when it is teetering regardless of the number of other buyers. That was my point. It's not a secret that fiat currencies and sovereign/state/municipal debt are in a precarious situation right now. It took a once in a 100 yr deleveraging event to crush gold under the 200 dma last time around. Conditions have changed considerably in those 2-1/2 years. Touching the 200 dma certainly seems possible. But a significant decline under it doesn't seem reasonable in the current environment. How will gold rest for a few years as each successive QE program is piled on and the price of commodities in general rise? In a couple of years we'll be at QE4 or QE5.
<< <i>Gold hasnt been below the 200dma in over 2 years. Thats a pretty long run. I still think gold needs a few years to rest before it goes parabolic. >>
I thought this was a nice chart. I can't wait to see the monthly gold chart when it goes parabolic according to cohodk's standards!
>>
So if its already parabolic, then its OVER?! If you think this was the parabola, then you should be shorting it big time.
I think this run over the last 10 years was just to put gold back on the radar screens. Now that it is there, it needs to sit for a few years. Then it goes parabolic. When all the worlds economies are in sync and REAL inflation sets in. I dont disagree that the run from 250 to 1450 was parabolic and thats why I think it needs to trade sideways for awhile. But usually parabolas give back 75% of the run, and I dont see gold dropping 75% from 1450. But maybe from 5000.
<< <i>So if its already parabolic, then its OVER?! If you think this was the parabola, then you should be shorting it big time.
I think this run over the last 10 years was just to put gold back on the radar screens. Now that it is there, it needs to sit for a few years. Then it goes parabolic. When all the worlds economies are in sync and REAL inflation sets in. I dont disagree that the run from 250 to 1450 was parabolic and thats why I think it needs to trade sideways for awhile. But usually parabolas give back 75% of the run, and I dont see gold dropping 75% from 1450. But maybe from 5000. >>
A parabolic move is marked by how it looks on the way up, not down, and that certainly looks like a parabola to me. It also resembles many parabolic moves we've seen in other tradeables. Reviewing those other parabolic charts again the collapses are of varying size but generally more than 50%. I hate to say that "gold is different" but I don't believe the collapse has to be anywhere near 75%. And gold is different... unlike the charts I looked at, gold is a lot different than a stock or even a commodity. Oil's the easiest one to look at, but oil and most other commodities aren't exactly something you stockpile. Gold spent decades with mass hoards being sold, and now that has changed and new hoards are being amassed or rebuilt. I think you give gold a 30-40% discount and everyone will jump all over it. The other thing is that with the volatility of the USD, the POG in the months after the collapse may "effectively" decline 75% but we won't see it decline that much due to adjustments in USD valuation compensating.
I don't know if it's over yet or not. There could be another month or two left. We're not even 5% off of the peak, we can't draw any conclusions yet. The charts look non-bullish, but not exactly bearish yet either. As I said above I'm out and I'm in cash, so now I'm looking for short term plays... such as today with gold here at 1355-1360, I'm playing a bounce but I'm not holding on long. When it turns for sure I will be shorting it big time.
There's nothing to say gold can't have two parabolic moves, or a parabolic move within a parabolic move. There's a first time for everything.
If you compress PC's fractal dynamic chart any tighter it would be a vertical line. But when you lay that chart out over a different scale it looks surprisingly linear. The only parabolics have been during the intermediate rallies where bowl and cup patterns emerged. I could even say we have to get back to the straight line formed from 2005-2008. No true ending parabola here like 1979. The big one is probably years away yet.
The other thing is that with the volatility of the USD, the POG in the months after the collapse may "effectively" decline 75% but we won't see it decline that much due to adjustments in USD valuation compensating.
I don't see a 75% effective or absolute collapse after a final peak because something has to reanchor the world's monetary system. Gold will play a part. The system wasn't destroyed in 1980 so gold had nowhere to go but into a deep bottom. This time around the peak will mark the current western financial system being dismantled, retired, or reworked. Gold will be part of the solution.
PC, are you still holding any core miners or are you out of them as well?
Nice!! How much did you buy? Did you cut her loose today, or holding?
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
<< <i>If you compress PC's fractal dynamic chart any tighter it would be a vertical line... >>
It's not compressed. The width of each candle is reasonable. It's a monthly chart. The problem with your chart is that it only includes the last half of the move, so there is no perspective.
<< <i>PC, are you still holding any core miners or are you out of them as well? >>
I didn't sell yet but I think I will on Tuesday.
Todays' close was NOT good for gold as the week closed out below what I thought were important support levels. OTOH, Today was supposed to be a low (although that can be off by a day or two). So I don't think the near-term outlook for gold is good, and I will probably be looking for opportunities to short it.
The chart below is a better picture of the parabolic move we've just seen, from David Nichols. He seems to suggest that a 38.2% retracement of the move up is in order here which would take us down to key support level ~980. Although others I've read seem to dismiss this idea saying there's no need to retrace the entire move up. It is quite a coincidence that a retracement would bring us back to such an important level.
I am kind of torn so I will short with caution. I'm not convinced it's going to 980, but I think we could be in for some serious weakenss here.
Different ways to interpret the same chart. The glide path from around 2005-2006 is generally linear which was my point. And the wider you spread out on the x axis the less impressive it looks.
An interesting summary by Chris Martenson on last week's results of the CFTC hearings on position limits. In essence, it's business as usual for JPM and HSBC. Might even explain how the tide turned so quickly the last few trading days.
-Bought, as planned last friday, and also some the previous friday. -Will look to buy 2nd week of May, June, July & August, only exception would be usmint products ( "P"pucks, burnished eagles ). -I've used the same buying windows for years, don't see a reason to change now.
In regards to paper:
-I'm very interested on whether the '15th day bounce' will this month. -Still considering a position in GLTR.
Nice!! How much did you buy? Did you cut her loose today, or holding? >>
I sold on Friday morn, just before it spiked higher another 30c. GRRRRR!! Wanted to buy it back again this morn, but got too caught up in the rapid decline in semiconductor, networking and auto parts stocks, of which I am short. FFIV getting absolutely crushed after hours. I think this is one of Cramers' favorite stocks.
$XAU just completed a small double top and is now on neckline support of a H&S top. If it breaks, my revised target would be 185-190--I think I mentioned 190-195 a few days ago. 185 is the current uptrendline from Jan 09. Stocks usually lead the metals by a few weeks, but this lead time has been reduced in recent years.
I am kind of torn so I will short with caution. I'm not convinced it's going to 980, but I think we could be in for some serious weakenss here
If you're right on this on PC, the screams of manipulation will be deafening. While I think gold needs to trade sideways for awhile, $1000 would not be out of the realm of possibility and just set the lower boundary of a $400 range that, IMO, would last for a few years. Think of the explosive move that could occur off of that base.
<< <i>If you're right on this on PC, the screams of manipulation will be deafening. While I think gold needs to trade sideways for awhile, $1000 would not be out of the realm of possibility and just set the lower boundary of a $400 range that, IMO, would last for a few years. Think of the explosive move that could occur off of that base. >>
I was going to post yesterday that the failure to get through 1377 did not look good, and that more downside was coming. And sure enough this morning PMs all took a dive. While it's not a sure thing yet - I suppose it's possible there's a bounce or hard reversal coming (but not likely IMO). I don't have any downside targets yet but I'm leaning toward $1000.
I disagree about it going sideways for years. I don't think it will be years as our currency and economy are too volatile right now. I agree about the screams of manipulation... I think that story is really old and tired. What is manipulated is the USD and the government economic reports.
Glad I'm in all-cash. I'm going to sell my mining stocks this morning.
Gold foward rates have dropped steadily since Dec 20th (.54) through today (.31) with only one day out of trend (Jan 12th). That happened to be the only day I mentioned this. But seeing that the trend continued down early this week, and with a whole lot of lower gaps sprinkled through the commodity sector that was the final straw for me to get out of the miners on Tuesday's bounce. That was PC's advice as well. It seemed very bearish to the intermediate term gold price that rates still dropped on each rebound in the price of gold. The Gofo rates now down for 20 trading days.
In each of the intermediate bottoms this year Gofo rates dropped to at least 0.28. And Feb's washout at $1044 gold was the worst at 0.13. This will probably end up somewhere in between the two. I'm looking at a USERX level of 16 being a critical level to keeping this bull market intact. Breech at this level would probably indicate a much longer term correction coming. That would roughly equate to a GDX of around 50-52 or HUI around 480. Those levels basically correspond to a retest of the late August/early Sept. breakout at gold $1250. I don't think we're going to get there. With stock market options expiring tomorrow a hit on the miners today was not unexpected. Next Tues/Wed is both a FED FOMC meeting as well as gold futures expiration. More headwinds to add to the current environment.
The miners are getting close. But I don't see them hanging in there if gold and silver get hit further. While the miners might have some negative divergences showing, GLD and SLV do not. Any further weakness in other commodities/metals or the SM, will only help push the miners further down. GDX rsi at 31 is certainly in the toilet with GLD and SLV at 38...certainly the range where things have started to recover in the past. With gold futures expiration next Wednesday this seems a bit early for gold and silver to end their move down. The miners might hold here waiting for gold and silver to steady. But I don't see a rush to buy the miners here. IAG has been in its own world the past month just like NAK has for the juniors. Hard to use them as bell weathers for the rest of the sector. They've been as stellar as BVN and GOLD have been putrid.
<< <i>The miners are getting close. But I don't see them hanging in there if gold and silver get hit further. While the miners might have some negative divergences showing, GLD and SLV do not. Any further weakness in other commodities/metals or the SM, will only help push the miners further down. GDX rsi at 31 is certainly in the toilet with GLD and SLV at 38...certainly the range where things have started to recover in the past. With gold futures expiration next Wednesday this seems a bit early for gold and silver to end their move down. The miners might hold here waiting for gold and silver to steady. But I don't see a rush to buy the miners here. IAG has been in its own world the past month just like NAK has for the juniors. Hard to use them as bell weathers for the rest of the sector. They've been as stellar as BVN and GOLD have been putrid.
roadrunner >>
I dont think its time to buy anything commodity related...yet. 10yr and 30yr interest rates are beginning to break out to the upside as I type this. I see this as a good sign--we dont want ever lower rates like in Japan. And Im not worried about a 4% yield on the 10yr, thats where it was last April and is the median yield since 2002. I see this all as dollar bullish.
Now, I do think rates have bottomed for probably the next 1-2 decades. This may put pressure on economic growth and is a big part of my "no inflation now" call and why I think gold will be idle.
While I am bearish I am struggling with how long I expect things to be bearish. I guess I'm not ready to say the upside is over. I'm seeing a lot of compelling things that suggest that we just need to put in a lower low here somewhere. Lows are expected Jan 20-26 and then again in February, with a more significant low potentially coming Feb 8. So I think I'm just going to hang back and wait for a lower low and hopefully catch it at a bottom.
One oddity continues to be DX, the USD index. It really is struggling and looks like it could really decline here as well if it breaks 79 decisively. But it's important not to be fooled by this, as it does not measure the value of the USD.
Meanwhile, it's kind of relaxing to be sitting in all-cash.
TO: Clearing Member Firms Chief Financial Officers Back Office Managers Margin Managers
FROM: CME Clearing
SUBJECT: Performance Bond Requirements:
DATE: Thursday, January 20, 2011
To receive advanced notification of Performance Bond (margin) changes, through our free automated mailing list, go to http://www.cmegroup.com/newsletter/web2lead/web2sf-old.html and subscribe to the Performance Bond Rates Advisory Notice listserver.
As per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., Clearing House Risk Management staff approved the performance bond requirements for the following products listed below.
The rates will be effective after the close of business on Friday, January 21, 2011. Current rates as of: Thursday, January 20, 2011.
Silver futures Non-Members, from $10,463 to $11,138
Once this fills the gap it maybe worth a shot to short. I'm a little short the semi conductors and looking to add.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
what do you make of the GSR if it gets back to over 50? >>
At 45 I sell silver and buy gold. At 80 I sell gold and buy silver. 50 is too close to the lower end of the range to alter my trading strategy. GSR should run to the mid-50s on this cycle. $24 silver and $1300 gold is a GSR of 54. Even at that level, gold looks more reasonable for a long term holder.
10yr and 30yr interest rates are beginning to break out to the upside as I type this MJ, stop following me.
>>
Didn't see your semi's trade. I'm in good company then, The TBT trade has been working slowly but surely and I'm fully armed there. Love being short treasuries right now. I have some wiggle room.
The US dollar is getting tommahawked today to my trading pleasure. Giving gold the day off I guess..................Faded the NAZ off the open for a scalp as it was PERFECTLY set up which means it never happens that way, except for this time that it did. Small but satisfying.......................MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Bob Hoye makes note of the GSR trend change to >50 in his article. Generally he has flagged several key turning/exhaustion points in the commodities market. The SM can't be far behind. Might be a bit early to be sounding the July-August 2008 alarm bells. His track record for warning of market "cliff dives" is quite accurate.
Bob Hoye makes note of the GSR trend change to >50 in his article. Generally he has flagged several key turning/exhaustion points in the commodities market. The SM can't be far behind. Might be a bit early to be sounding the July-August 2008 alarm bells. His track record for warning of market "cliff dives" is quite accurate.
roadrunner >>
At the borrom of that Hoye article he posts a chart of commodities vs wages. Seems he is saying that without wage increases commodity price increases are unsustainable. I think I've heard that before.
The stock market appears to be going through an industry rotation cycle rather than a full-fledged selloff. IE, turning more defensive. This doesnt mean the market cant trade lower--I would welcome that--but I dont think we're going to see wholesale selling of everything. Lots of stocks and commodities are priced for perfection and due for some serious price correction, while many stocks are priced for worse case scenerios and due for upward price adjustment.
I'm not quite sure what Hoye was trying to get across in that "wages" chart as he lables it "hours worked" rather than "wages."
Considerable headwinds still left for next week:
Gold/Silver/Copper futures expiration on Wed FOMC meeting this week (Tues-Wed) State of the Union address Tuesday End of month squaring 2,5,7 yr TBond auctions Tues-Thurs Heavy POMO days Mon, Tues, Thurs, Friday
Don't see gold and silver avoiding a further hit by Wed. this week while already in a downtrend. Can't let the bosses look bad on TV next week with PM's rising and SM falling. Noted that during last state of the union address gold an additional $10 push down that day on its way to a Feb 8th low.
Gold COT numbers are the lowest they've been in a long time. Comm. short to long ratio of 2.03 and a net short postion of 206,000. The lowest the ratio has been was down around 1.6 to 1.8 several years ago. It hasn't been below 2.0 in years and has spent very little time down that low. Things are getting closer to a bottoming.
I think that I just read recently that China hasn't just stopped buying Treasuries, they've started liquidating some of their stash. Of course, last night I was listening to Savage talk about the deal that Immelt cut with China to sell them high tech GE avionics, with the blessings of the White House.
On another note, Sylvania makes a nice, highly-efficient soft white halogen lightbulb called SuperSaver that is made in the USA.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I think that I just read recently that China hasn't just stopped buying Treasuries, they've started liquidating some of their stash. Of course, last night I was listening to Savage talk about the deal that Immelt cut with China to sell them high tech GE avionics, with the blessings of the White House. On another note, Sylvania makes a nice, highly-efficient soft white halogen lightbulb called SuperSaver that is made in the USA. >>
I just learned while in China that those new fancy schmancy light bulbs require smoe rare earth's to make them. I did not know that. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The USERX 92-96 day index sold off today based on falling below the 5 daily closes from 92-96 days ago. What's it mean? For now, it means rough sledding or lots of cycling in the miners and probably for gold & silver in general. The vast majority of the time that USERX has fallen below those 92-96 back days it signifies a change in the trend. The last trend was instituted back in the summer which sent PM's on a multi-month up move. They could spin their wheels for weeks or months in a somewhat lower trading range. On the plus side GDX, GDXJ, and HUI haven't yet sold off their 92-96 back day indicies but they are terribly close as well (GDX 52.65, GDXJ 31.7, and HUI 479). The fact that these indicies continued to rise from Sept-November means that not only can they not move down much lower, but that they'd have to turn around and run as bullish as they did from September to keep ahead of the rising 92-96 back day prices. Doesn't mean things can't bounce from here. I mentioned those other 3 indicies because they all have a different weighting to the miners. USERX doesn't have the extreme weighting that GDX (or HUI) gives to Barrick, Newmont and Goldcorp. It's major holding is Rangold with Goldcorp not even in the top 10. So one could certainly question the infallibilty of USERX over say GDX. The only reason Kern uses only the gold mutual fund USERX is that it's been around for 35 years and has one price per day. If all these indicies fall below their 92-96 day closes, that will be additionally bearish.
Note that GDX finally closed it's old gap from Sept 13th with today's low of 53.12. That was the final down gap still hiding out since the Sept-December charge...slightly positive news in light of the fact that GDX did close <200 dma for the first time since late July.
Jeff Kern's 92-96 SKI index on sell signal The one plus going for Kern's system is that he has 35 yrs of trading data to show how often these indexes give accurate buy and sell signals.
Nice GSR chart from Xiphos showing a 25 year bottom channel at 46-47 that provided the latest resistance. It should take some work and time to get through it.
Comments
I've never seen anything on PM's from that author before so I have no idea what their accuracy has been. The 150 dma has contained the gold moves for most of this bull market. But the holes in the author's analysis is that gold didn't peak or rebound the way those 2 prior tops did. The Dec 2009 top/Feb 2010 bottom shouldn't even be considered since it was a blow off top on great enthusiasm where gold peaked at >25% above the 200 dma. The initial down legs from those earlier peaks doesn't come close to describing the current pattern of a slow 3 month consolidation with 3 distinct peaks. There's been no big initial pullback that held. So I think we're comparing apples to oranges here. The real question is why have gold and silver been able to hang up here so long unlike nearly every previous top? While I would agree that retesting the 150 dma is the conservative approach, I have doubts whether gold and silver have completed their current runs. The 100 dma has also held much of the last 2 yrs and the HUI came very close to hitting that recently. The 150 dma will come again in 2011, maybe twice...but possibly not in Jan or Feb. I'd leave room for either eventuality. "Everyone" is expecting a pull back to the 150 dma or else the $1260 range. Easy money. Everyone will nail that trade and then watch gold rise to $1500-$1600. That's the problem. It's just too easy and everyone is expecting that.
Other variables in this current commodity choppiness is the rebalancing of the Goldman Sachs commodity index as well as others. Silver was a big mover this past year and most of these indicies will require a higher % silver weight. Same for copper. So during these 1st few weeks in January a number of big funds are maneuvering around the commodity percentages they are required to hold. Hence required selling and buying.
Platinum just completed a 7 month cup and handle. From here one would think it's headed towards $2250-$2300.
FED just released the new POMO schedule. From 1/3 to 2/10. About $90-$110 Bill. Tomorrow is the first day at $7-9 BILL. followed by the same amount the day after.
roadrunner
<< <i>The action in all commodities except gold and silver looks strong: grains, softs, pgm and base metals. Some of these are back to their most current peaks. Silver and gold for some reason seem to be semi-linked to the dollar. The dollar has dropped and silver and gold have tended to follow. The action with gold and silver falling overnight during London trading hours while the dollar tanked looked quite odd. It wouldn't take much of a leap to figure that they are being held down while they can be.
3/10/30 yr Bond auctions this week might be some headwinds to gold and silver until Thursday afternoon. And from the last schedule I saw the POMO injections ended yesterday.
The dollar (UUP) is now in that gap filling range I mentioned on Monday. It's in a steep enough descent it's almost certainly going to take the time to fill it. This will erase all those gains from Wed-Monday. It might as well fall all the way to the 200 dma and bottom bollinger band at this rate as they are all pretty close together. Once it completes this move not sure which direction it will head.
UUP (USDollar ETF) chart
roadrunner >>
At this point in time, there is much less risk trading paper wheat than paper gold, thats why gold has been dead and soft commods strong. GLD still closed
below the 20dma.
The dollar has filled the gap to 80, yet little fanfare from gold. Big rally in the Euro and Pound today from oversold conditions--both down 10% in last 2 months. The Aussie dollar loses 5% in last 2 weeks because of floods!!, give me a break.
Also, the 150dma is widely used as a pivot point among many TA guys.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Will this trend continue?
Noted that LBMA gold forward rates finally turned the other way after 9 days straight down. Usually means a gold turn is already started or soon to be....assuming the rates keep trending that way.
roadrunner
<< <i>So why do you think gold and silver have seen little movement while the dollar tanked since Monday....and all other metals, grains and softs took off? Just coincidence?
Will this trend continue?
Noted that LBMA gold forward rates finally turned the other way after 9 days straight down. Usually means a gold turn is already started or soon to be....assuming the rates keep trending that way.
roadrunner >>
I dont think its coincidence at all. Buying begets buying. Money moves to the fastest markets. Gold has been flat for 2 months and is an "old" story. Boring. Now we have fear and panic in the grains markets because Australia is underwater. Whoohoo!! Gotta buy wheat and corn!!! At least before we plant some more.
FWIW--I happen to like the chart of wheat very much.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
As MJ mentioned the dollar cratered today. Blew right through the rising neckline from November made from a double H&S. 50 dma penetrated as well. But it has left a bunch of gaps sitting higher in the UUP.
False turn on the LMBA gofo rate. Still headed down. Nice attack by the PTB as soon as the Comex closed today.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>So why do you think gold and silver have seen little movement while the dollar tanked since Monday....and all other metals, grains and softs took off? Just coincidence?
Will this trend continue?
Noted that LBMA gold forward rates finally turned the other way after 9 days straight down. Usually means a gold turn is already started or soon to be....assuming the rates keep trending that way.
roadrunner >>
I dont think its coincidence at all. Buying begets buying. Money moves to the fastest markets. Gold has been flat for 2 months and is an "old" story. Boring. Now we have fear and panic in the grains markets because Australia is underwater. Whoohoo!! Gotta buy wheat and corn!!! At least before we plant some more.
FWIW--I happen to like the chart of wheat very much.
Stocks look good though. I have a 1320 target for SP500 by next week. So I might actually play the SP500 while metals decide what to do.
roadrunner
If I am in a buy position for silver do I really care what happens in the immediate future 3 months out?
I will prepare myself to shrug off the volatile moments but I am looking for the big picture $50-$100/oz target goal.
<< <i>We are still in limbo with gold and silver, awaiting a resolution that can come any day... and it will resolve in a big way. Looking for a close under 1370 or over 1392 as the indication. Silver's looking really weak, Palladium really strong. Really a mix of signals here. I'm in all cash, waiting for a resolution. Really odd that gold did so poorly today with the USD tanking - not a good sign.
Stocks look good though. I have a 1320 target for SP500 by next week. So I might actually play the SP500 while metals decide what to do. >>
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Roadrunner, platinum is boring. Have you heard it mentioned on the nightly news?
$XAU broke the uptrend line from the Aug lows at the beginning of this month. Now looking like a H&S top. Only projects to 190-195 though. Unless they want to push it to the primary uptrend from beginning of 2009. Gold mining companies now acting like the big integrated oil companies did in 2008. Oil pushed higher yet Exxon, Chevron, BP, barely pushed above the 2007 highs, even though oil doubled. The stock market didnt believe in the oil rally. It was right.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$XAU broke the uptrend line from the Aug lows at the beginning of this month. Now looking like a H&S top. Only projects to 190-195 though. Unless they want to push it to the primary uptrend from beginning of 2009. Gold mining companies now acting like the big integrated oil companies did in 2008. Oil pushed higher yet Exxon, Chevron, BP, barely pushed above the 2007 highs, even though oil doubled. The stock market didnt believe in the oil rally. It was right.
Yeah, fwiw I've heard platinum mentioned on the nightly CNBC news. The prime news channels don't even give much mention to gold and silver unless they've been on extended runs to new highs.
Plat may be boring. But when it rises along with everything else that isn't boring, while boring gold and silver hang back, and the dollar falls like a stone, that catches my attention. I would agree that the action in the senior miners today was certainly ominous. The only bright spot was that they bounced on strong volume with 30 min left in the session today. We'll see what tomorrow brings now that they filled the latest gap. GDXJ and SLV filled their gaps as well. I like the GLD gap sitting up high at $1408-$1410. There are lots of stocks that are boring....probably 95% of them. Darn, that "boring" platinum is coming back strong in the after hours tonight. Of all the PM's only platinum has a 9 month cup and handle that has fully completed. As such it has more potential than other more exciting commods, and less risk imo. It should be exciting soon enough as it climbs to form a larger cup at $2250. Today's boring is tomorrow's darling. It wasn't long ago when you said copper was boring and headed into the dumper. It certainly wasn't boring in 2010.
Also found out today that back on Nov 29th SPDR gold trust (GLD) lost their old auditors (Deloitte and Touche) and replaced them with KPMG. Yeah, the same guys that were sued for $1 BILL in the subprime mess. Might just be a coincidence.....or not. If you've already been involved in one $1 BILL lawsuit, it makes you battle tested. But neither firm is a stranger to negligence lawsuits.
roadrunner
Three River Candle
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
FWIW--I bought platinum from some forum member recently.
And you should know by now that I prefer to trade "under the radar" things.
Copper went higher because of the creation of ETFs. Industrial demand is no greater today than it was 6 months ago. This is what is happening......Wall street is turning industrial assets into investible assets. Never before has it been so easy for J6P to trade commodities. Today he can buy and sell copper, wheat, gold just as easy as a stocks. This has brought a flood of new investors/traders into the commodity space. This is 99% of the reason for copper going on this ridiculous move. It was 99% of the reason for oil going on its move in 2008. The ease of buying a house in 2006 resulted in a bubble. Its just the same crappie, over and over again. The creation of ETFs have had a MASSIVE influence on the prices of commodities and stocks.
Dont take this the wrong way, but this is what I have noticed....You were getting away from all the conspiracy stuff while the metals were moving higher, but now that they've stopped, your looking for excuses as to why. Prices go up when buyers exceed sellers. Sometimes there are just more sellers than buyers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Interesting candle formation explained
Three River Candle
MJ >>
Interesting. Never heard of it. Makes sense.
Gold hasnt been below the 200dma in over 2 years. Thats a pretty long run. I still think gold needs a few years to rest before it goes parabolic.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Gold hasnt been below the 200dma in over 2 years. Thats a pretty long run. I still think gold needs a few years to rest before it goes parabolic. >>
I thought this was a nice chart. I can't wait to see the monthly gold chart when it goes parabolic according to cohodk's standards!
Sometimes it only takes one dedicated seller (ie JPM) to move the silver or gold market when it is teetering regardless of the number of other buyers. That was my point. It's not a secret that fiat currencies and sovereign/state/municipal debt are in a precarious situation right now. It took a once in a 100 yr deleveraging event to crush gold under the 200 dma last time around. Conditions have changed considerably in those 2-1/2 years. Touching the 200 dma certainly seems possible. But a significant decline under it doesn't seem reasonable in the current environment. How will gold rest for a few years as each successive QE program is piled on and the price of commodities in general rise? In a couple of years we'll be at QE4 or QE5.
roadrunner
<< <i>Stocks look good though. I have a 1320 target for SP500 by next week. So I might actually play the SP500 while metals decide what to do. >>
Well, not impossible, but would be quite a feat. RSI on semi index at 85!! and Naz-100 at 78. Yikes. For disclosure I am short the semis.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold hasnt been below the 200dma in over 2 years. Thats a pretty long run. I still think gold needs a few years to rest before it goes parabolic. >>
I thought this was a nice chart. I can't wait to see the monthly gold chart when it goes parabolic according to cohodk's standards!
So if its already parabolic, then its OVER?! If you think this was the parabola, then you should be shorting it big time.
I think this run over the last 10 years was just to put gold back on the radar screens. Now that it is there, it needs to sit for a few years. Then it goes parabolic. When all the worlds economies are in sync and REAL inflation sets in. I dont disagree that the run from 250 to 1450 was parabolic and thats why I think it needs to trade sideways for awhile. But usually parabolas give back 75% of the run, and I dont see gold dropping 75% from 1450. But maybe from 5000.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If you think platinum is boring, you need a 1 ozer to twirl around on your desktop in order to get the feel of it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So if its already parabolic, then its OVER?! If you think this was the parabola, then you should be shorting it big time.
I think this run over the last 10 years was just to put gold back on the radar screens. Now that it is there, it needs to sit for a few years. Then it goes parabolic. When all the worlds economies are in sync and REAL inflation sets in. I dont disagree that the run from 250 to 1450 was parabolic and thats why I think it needs to trade sideways for awhile. But usually parabolas give back 75% of the run, and I dont see gold dropping 75% from 1450. But maybe from 5000. >>
A parabolic move is marked by how it looks on the way up, not down, and that certainly looks like a parabola to me. It also resembles many parabolic moves we've seen in other tradeables. Reviewing those other parabolic charts again the collapses are of varying size but generally more than 50%. I hate to say that "gold is different" but I don't believe the collapse has to be anywhere near 75%. And gold is different... unlike the charts I looked at, gold is a lot different than a stock or even a commodity. Oil's the easiest one to look at, but oil and most other commodities aren't exactly something you stockpile. Gold spent decades with mass hoards being sold, and now that has changed and new hoards are being amassed or rebuilt. I think you give gold a 30-40% discount and everyone will jump all over it. The other thing is that with the volatility of the USD, the POG in the months after the collapse may "effectively" decline 75% but we won't see it decline that much due to adjustments in USD valuation compensating.
I don't know if it's over yet or not. There could be another month or two left. We're not even 5% off of the peak, we can't draw any conclusions yet. The charts look non-bullish, but not exactly bearish yet either. As I said above I'm out and I'm in cash, so now I'm looking for short term plays... such as today with gold here at 1355-1360, I'm playing a bounce but I'm not holding on long. When it turns for sure I will be shorting it big time.
There's nothing to say gold can't have two parabolic moves, or a parabolic move within a parabolic move. There's a first time for everything.
Gold chart
The other thing is that with the volatility of the USD, the POG in the months after the collapse may "effectively" decline 75% but we won't see it decline that much due to adjustments in USD valuation compensating.
I don't see a 75% effective or absolute collapse after a final peak because something has to reanchor the world's monetary system. Gold will play a part. The system wasn't destroyed in 1980 so gold had nowhere to go but into a deep bottom. This time around the peak will mark the current western financial system being dismantled, retired, or reworked. Gold will be part of the solution.
PC, are you still holding any core miners or are you out of them as well?
roadrunner
<< <i>
... >>
Nice!! How much did you buy? Did you cut her loose today, or holding?
<< <i>If you compress PC's fractal dynamic chart any tighter it would be a vertical line... >>
It's not compressed. The width of each candle is reasonable. It's a monthly chart. The problem with your chart is that it only includes the last half of the move, so there is no perspective.
<< <i>PC, are you still holding any core miners or are you out of them as well? >>
I didn't sell yet but I think I will on Tuesday.
Todays' close was NOT good for gold as the week closed out below what I thought were important support levels. OTOH, Today was supposed to be a low (although that can be off by a day or two). So I don't think the near-term outlook for gold is good, and I will probably be looking for opportunities to short it.
The chart below is a better picture of the parabolic move we've just seen, from David Nichols. He seems to suggest that a 38.2% retracement of the move up is in order here which would take us down to key support level ~980. Although others I've read seem to dismiss this idea saying there's no need to retrace the entire move up. It is quite a coincidence that a retracement would bring us back to such an important level.
I am kind of torn so I will short with caution. I'm not convinced it's going to 980, but I think we could be in for some serious weakenss here.
An interesting summary by Chris Martenson on last week's results of the CFTC hearings on position limits. In essence, it's business as usual for JPM and HSBC. Might even explain how the tide turned so quickly the last few trading days.
CFTC caves in to the bankers - no change on limits
roadrunner
-Bought, as planned last friday, and also some the previous friday.
-Will look to buy 2nd week of May, June, July & August, only exception would be usmint products ( "P"pucks, burnished eagles ).
-I've used the same buying windows for years, don't see a reason to change now.
In regards to paper:
-I'm very interested on whether the '15th day bounce' will this month.
-Still considering a position in GLTR.
<< <i>
<< <i>
... >>
Nice!! How much did you buy? Did you cut her loose today, or holding? >>
I sold on Friday morn, just before it spiked higher another 30c. GRRRRR!! Wanted to buy it back again this morn, but got too caught up in the rapid decline in semiconductor, networking and auto parts stocks, of which I am short. FFIV getting absolutely crushed after hours. I think this is one of Cramers' favorite stocks.
$XAU just completed a small double top and is now on neckline support of a H&S top. If it breaks, my revised target would be 185-190--I think I mentioned 190-195 a few days ago. 185 is the current uptrendline from Jan 09. Stocks usually lead the metals by a few weeks, but this lead time has been reduced in recent years.
I am kind of torn so I will short with caution. I'm not convinced it's going to 980, but I think we could be in for some serious weakenss here
If you're right on this on PC, the screams of manipulation will be deafening. While I think gold needs to trade sideways for awhile, $1000 would not be out of the realm of possibility and just set the lower boundary of a $400 range that, IMO, would last for a few years. Think of the explosive move that could occur off of that base.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>If you're right on this on PC, the screams of manipulation will be deafening. While I think gold needs to trade sideways for awhile, $1000 would not be out of the realm of possibility and just set the lower boundary of a $400 range that, IMO, would last for a few years. Think of the explosive move that could occur off of that base.
I was going to post yesterday that the failure to get through 1377 did not look good, and that more downside was coming. And sure enough this morning PMs all took a dive. While it's not a sure thing yet - I suppose it's possible there's a bounce or hard reversal coming (but not likely IMO). I don't have any downside targets yet but I'm leaning toward $1000.
I disagree about it going sideways for years. I don't think it will be years as our currency and economy are too volatile right now. I agree about the screams of manipulation... I think that story is really old and tired. What is manipulated is the USD and the government economic reports.
Glad I'm in all-cash. I'm going to sell my mining stocks this morning.
Gold foward rates have dropped steadily since Dec 20th (.54) through today (.31) with only one day out of trend (Jan 12th). That happened to be the only day I mentioned this. But seeing that the trend continued down early this week, and with a whole lot of lower gaps sprinkled through the commodity sector that was the final straw for me to get out of the miners on Tuesday's bounce. That was PC's advice as well. It seemed very bearish to the intermediate term gold price that rates still dropped on each rebound in the price of gold. The Gofo rates now down for 20 trading days.
In each of the intermediate bottoms this year Gofo rates dropped to at least 0.28. And Feb's washout at $1044 gold was the worst at 0.13. This will probably end up somewhere in between the two. I'm looking at a USERX level of 16 being a critical level to keeping this bull market intact. Breech at this level would probably indicate a much longer term correction coming. That would roughly equate to a GDX of around 50-52 or HUI around 480. Those levels basically correspond to a retest of the late August/early Sept. breakout at gold $1250. I don't think we're going to get there. With stock market options expiring tomorrow a hit on the miners today was not unexpected. Next Tues/Wed is both a FED FOMC meeting as well as gold futures expiration. More headwinds to add to the current environment.
roadrunner
NEM bounced off the July low and ABX bounced off the 200dma. RGLD is testing support. IAG holding well. Time to buy miners?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
<< <i>The miners are getting close. But I don't see them hanging in there if gold and silver get hit further. While the miners might have some negative divergences showing, GLD and SLV do not. Any further weakness in other commodities/metals or the SM, will only help push the miners further down. GDX rsi at 31 is certainly in the toilet with GLD and SLV at 38...certainly the range where things have started to recover in the past. With gold futures expiration next Wednesday this seems a bit early for gold and silver to end their move down. The miners might hold here waiting for gold and silver to steady. But I don't see a rush to buy the miners here. IAG has been in its own world the past month just like NAK has for the juniors. Hard to use them as bell weathers for the rest of the sector. They've been as stellar as BVN and GOLD have been putrid.
roadrunner >>
I dont think its time to buy anything commodity related...yet. 10yr and 30yr interest rates are beginning to break out to the upside as I type this. I see this as a good sign--we dont want ever lower rates like in Japan. And Im not worried about a 4% yield on the 10yr, thats where it was last April and is the median yield since 2002. I see this all as dollar bullish.
Now, I do think rates have bottomed for probably the next 1-2 decades. This may put pressure on economic growth and is a big part of my "no inflation now" call and why I think gold will be idle.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
One oddity continues to be DX, the USD index. It really is struggling and looks like it could really decline here as well if it breaks 79 decisively. But it's important not to be fooled by this, as it does not measure the value of the USD.
Meanwhile, it's kind of relaxing to be sitting in all-cash.
Linky
TO:
Clearing Member Firms
Chief Financial Officers
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FROM: CME Clearing
SUBJECT: Performance Bond Requirements:
DATE: Thursday, January 20, 2011
To receive advanced notification of Performance Bond (margin) changes, through our free automated
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Exchange Inc., Clearing House Risk Management staff approved the performance bond requirements for the
following products listed below.
The rates will be effective after the close of business on Friday, January 21, 2011.
Current rates as of: Thursday, January 20, 2011.
Silver futures Non-Members, from $10,463 to $11,138
Once this fills the gap it maybe worth a shot to short. I'm a little short the semi conductors and looking to add.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
10yr and 30yr interest rates are beginning to break out to the upside as I type this
MJ, stop following me.
Got short auto-parts again.
2 more cents and I'll be short the Euro.
Silver chart looking fugly.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
what do you make of the GSR if it gets back to over 50?
Groucho Marx
<< <i>RR and others
what do you make of the GSR if it gets back to over 50? >>
At 45 I sell silver and buy gold. At 80 I sell gold and buy silver. 50 is too close to the lower end of the range to alter my trading strategy. GSR should run to the mid-50s on this cycle. $24 silver and $1300 gold is a GSR of 54. Even at that level, gold looks more reasonable for a long term holder.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>For disclosure I am short the semis.
10yr and 30yr interest rates are beginning to break out to the upside as I type this
MJ, stop following me.
>>
Didn't see your semi's trade. I'm in good company then, The TBT trade has been working slowly but surely and I'm fully armed there. Love being short treasuries right now. I have some wiggle room.
The US dollar is getting tommahawked today to my trading pleasure. Giving gold the day off I guess
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Bob Hoye makes note of the GSR trend change to >50 in his article. Generally he has flagged several key turning/exhaustion points in the commodities market. The SM can't be far behind. Might be a bit early to be sounding the July-August 2008 alarm bells. His track record for warning of market "cliff dives" is quite accurate.
roadrunner
<< <i>Hoye sums of the various markets
Bob Hoye makes note of the GSR trend change to >50 in his article. Generally he has flagged several key turning/exhaustion points in the commodities market. The SM can't be far behind. Might be a bit early to be sounding the July-August 2008 alarm bells. His track record for warning of market "cliff dives" is quite accurate.
roadrunner >>
At the borrom of that Hoye article he posts a chart of commodities vs wages. Seems he is saying that without wage increases commodity price increases are unsustainable. I think I've heard that before.
The stock market appears to be going through an industry rotation cycle rather than a full-fledged selloff. IE, turning more defensive. This doesnt mean the market cant trade lower--I would welcome that--but I dont think we're going to see wholesale selling of everything. Lots of stocks and commodities are priced for perfection and due for some serious price correction, while many stocks are priced for worse case scenerios and due for upward price adjustment.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Considerable headwinds still left for next week:
Gold/Silver/Copper futures expiration on Wed
FOMC meeting this week (Tues-Wed)
State of the Union address Tuesday
End of month squaring
2,5,7 yr TBond auctions Tues-Thurs
Heavy POMO days Mon, Tues, Thurs, Friday
Don't see gold and silver avoiding a further hit by Wed. this week while already in a downtrend. Can't let the bosses look bad on TV next week with PM's rising and SM falling.
Noted that during last state of the union address gold an additional $10 push down that day on its way to a Feb 8th low.
Gold COT numbers are the lowest they've been in a long time. Comm. short to long ratio of 2.03 and a net short postion of 206,000. The lowest the ratio has been was down around 1.6 to 1.8 several years ago. It hasn't been below 2.0 in years and has spent very little time down that low. Things are getting closer to a bottoming.
roadrunner
On another note, Sylvania makes a nice, highly-efficient soft white halogen lightbulb called SuperSaver that is made in the USA.
I knew it would happen.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I think that I just read recently that China hasn't just stopped buying Treasuries, they've started liquidating some of their stash. Of course, last night I was listening to Savage talk about the deal that Immelt cut with China to sell them high tech GE avionics, with the blessings of the White House.
On another note, Sylvania makes a nice, highly-efficient soft white halogen lightbulb called SuperSaver that is made in the USA. >>
I just learned while in China that those new fancy schmancy light bulbs require smoe rare earth's to make them. I did not know that. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Note that GDX finally closed it's old gap from Sept 13th with today's low of 53.12. That was the final down gap still hiding out since the Sept-December charge...slightly positive news in light of the fact that GDX did close <200 dma for the first time since late July.
Jeff Kern's 92-96 SKI index on sell signal
The one plus going for Kern's system is that he has 35 yrs of trading data to show how often these indexes give accurate buy and sell signals.
Nice GSR chart from Xiphos showing a 25 year bottom channel at 46-47 that provided the latest resistance. It should take some work and time to get through it.
30 yr gold to silver ratio chart (2nd chart down, click on chart to focus)
roadrunner
<< <i>just sayin
MJ >>
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
GSS is down from 6.01 to 3 and change in two months. I think it's just about time to start a slow buy in.